Assessment of vaccine herd protection in a cluster-randomised trial of Vi conjugate vaccine against typhoid fever: results of further analysis.

Background: A cluster-randomised trial of Vi-tetanus toxoid (Vi-TT) conjugate vaccine conducted in urban Bangladeshi children found a high level of direct protection by Vi-TT but no significant vaccine herd protection. We reassessed the trial using a "fried egg" analysis to evaluate whether herd protection might have been obscured by transmission of typhoid into the clusters from the outside. Methods: A participant- and observer-blind, cluster-randomised trial was conducted between February 14, 2018 and August 12, 2019 in three wards of Mirpur, a densely populated urban area of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Children 9 months to under 16 years of age in 150 geographic clusters, which had a total of 311,289 persons present at baseline or entering during follow-up, were randomised by cluster to a single-dose of Vi-TT or Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine. Vi-TT protection against typhoid fever, detected at 8 treatment centres serving the study population, was compared in the original clusters for the trial, and for progressively more central subclusters ("yolks" of the "fried egg") of the cluster residents. If transmission of typhoid into the clusters had diluted observed vaccine herd protection, we hypothesised that analysis of the innermost "yolks" would reveal vaccine herd protection that was not evident in analysis of the entire clusters. The trial is registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN11643110. Findings: At ≤18 months of follow-up, total vaccine effectiveness (protection of Vi-TT recipients relative to JE vaccine recipients) was 85% (95% CI: 76%, 90%); indirect effectiveness (protection of non-Vi-TT recipients in Vi-TT clusters relative to non-JE vaccine recipients in JE vaccine clusters) was 17% (95% CI: -13%, 40%); and overall effectiveness (protection of all residents in the Vi-TT clusters relative to all residents of the JE vaccine clusters) was 57% (95% CI: 44%, 66%). Analyses of subpopulations in inner 75%, 50% and 25% "yolks" of the clusters failed to reveal significant changes in any of these estimates. Interpretation: Our analysis did not reveal Vi-TT herd protection in the trial. Consideration should be given to exploring whether targeting adults as well as children with Vi-TT yields appreciable levels of vaccine herd protection. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151153, INV-025388).

Cost of oral cholera vaccine delivery in a mass immunization program for children in urban Bangladesh.

Cholera poses a substantial health burden in the developing world due to both epidemic and endemic diseases. The World Health Organization recommends oral cholera vaccines for mass vaccination campaigns in addition to traditional prevention practices and treatments in resource-poor settings. In many developing countries like Bangladesh, the major challenge behind implementing mass vaccination campaigns concerns the affordability of the oral cholera vaccine (OCV). Vaccination of children with OCV is not only an impactful approach for controlling cholera at the population level and reducing childhood morbidity but is also considered more cost-effective than vaccinating all ages. The aim of the study was to estimate the cost of an OCV campaign for children from a societal perspective using empirical study. A total of 66,311 children aged 1 to 14 years old were fully vaccinated with two doses of the OCV Shanchol while 9,035 individuals received one dose of this vaccine. The estimated societal cost per individual for full vaccination was US$ 6.11, which includes the cost of vaccine delivery estimated at US$ 1.95. The cost per single dose was estimated at US$ 2.86. The total provider cost for full vaccination was estimated at US$ 6.01 and the recipient cost at US$ 0.10. Our estimation of OCV delivery costs for children was relatively higher than what was found in a similar mass OCV campaign for all age groups, indicating that there may be additional cost factors to consider in targeted vaccine campaigns. This analysis provides useful benchmarks for the possible costs related to delivery of OCV to children and future OCV cost-effectiveness models should factor in these possible cost disparities. Attempts to reduce the cost per dose are likely to have a greater impact on the cost of similar vaccination campaigns in many resource-poor settings.

Effectiveness of a killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Bangladesh: further follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are widely used for prevention of cholera in developing countries. However, few studies have evaluated the protection conferred by internationally recommended OCVs for durations beyond 2 years of follow-up. METHODS: In this study, we followed up the participants of a cluster-randomised controlled trial for 2 years after the end of the original trial. Originally, we had randomised 90 geographical clusters in Dhaka slums in Bangladesh in equal numbers (1:1:1) to a two-dose regimen of OCV alone (targeted to people aged 1 year or older), a two-dose regimen of OCV plus a water-sanitation-hygiene (WASH) intervention, or no intervention. There was no masking of group assignment. The WASH intervention conferred little additional protection to OCV and was discontinued at 2 years of follow-up. Surveillance for severe cholera was continued for 4 years. Because of the short duration and effect of the WASH intervention, we combined the two OCV intervention groups. The primary outcomes were OCV overall protection (protection of all members of the intervention clusters) and total protection (protection of individuals who got vaccinated in the intervention clusters) against severe cholera, which we assessed by multivariable survival models appropriate for cluster-randomised trials. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01339845. FINDINGS: The study was done between April 17, 2011, and Nov 1, 2015. 268 896 participants were present at the time of the first dose, with 188 206 in the intervention group and 80 690 in the control group. OCV coverage of the two groups receiving OCV was 66% (123 659 of 187 214 participants). During 4 years of follow-up, 441 first episodes of severe cholera were detected (243 episodes in the vaccinated groups and as 198 episodes in the unvaccinated group). Overall OCV protection was 36% (95% CI 19 to 49%) and total OCV protection was 46% (95% CI 32 to 58). Cumulative total vaccine protection was notably lower for people vaccinated before the age of 5 years (24%; -30 to 56) than for people vaccinated at age 5 years or older (49%; 35 to 60), although the differences in protection for the two age groups were not significant (p=0·3308). Total vaccine protection dropped notably (p=0·0115) after 3 years in children vaccinated at 1-4 years of age. INTERPRETATION: These findings provide further evidence of long-term effectiveness of killed whole-cell OCV, and therefore further support for the use of killed whole-cell OCVs to control endemic cholera, but indicate that protection is shorter-lived in children vaccinated before the age of 5 years than in people vaccinated at the age of 5 years or older. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Bengali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Validation and comparison of ELISA kits to measure interferon gamma responses in QuantiFERON cultural supernatants for diagnosis of tuberculosis.

Much effort has been made to reduce the cost of LTBI diagnosis with equivalent efficacy and efficiency of interferon-γ release assay (IGRA). This study showed that repeatability, intermediate precision, and accuracy of the Bionote-ELISA were comparable to QFT-ELISA. The Bionote-ELISA could provide the alternative method.

Influence of maternal and socioeconomic factors on breast milk fatty acid composition in urban, low-income families.

The lipid composition of breast milk may have a significant impact on early infant growth and cognitive development. Comprehensive breast milk data is lacking from low-income populations in the Indian subcontinent impeding assessment of deficiencies and limiting development of maternal nutritional interventions. A single breast milk specimen was collected within 6 weeks postpartum from two low-income maternal cohorts of exclusively breastfed infants, from Dhaka, Bangladesh (n = 683) and Kolkata, India (n = 372) and assayed for percentage composition of 26 fatty acids. Mature milk (>15 days) in Dhaka (n = 99) compared to Kolkata (n = 372) was higher in total saturated fatty acid (SFA; mean 48% vs. 44%) and disproportionately lower in ω3-polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA), hence the ω6- and ω3-PUFA ratio in Dhaka were almost double the value in Kolkata. In both sites, after adjusting for days of lactation, increased maternal education was associated with decreased SFA and PUFA, and increasing birth order or total pregnancies was associated with decreasing ω6-PUFA or ω3-PUFA by a factor of 0.95 for each birth and pregnancy. In Dhaka, household prosperity was associated with decreased SFA and PUFA and increased ω6- and ω3-PUFA. Maternal height was associated with increased SFA and PUFA in Kolkata (1% increase per 1 cm), but body mass index showed no independent association with either ratio in either cohort. In summary, the socioeconomic factors of maternal education and household prosperity were associated with breast milk composition, although prosperity may only be important in higher cost of living communities. Associated maternal biological factors were height and infant birth order, but not adiposity. Further study is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of these effects.

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

Efficacy of a low-cost, inactivated whole-cell oral cholera vaccine: results from 3 years of follow-up of a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Killed oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been licensed for use in developing countries, but protection conferred by licensed OCVs beyond two years of follow-up has not been demonstrated in randomized, clinical trials. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a two-dose regimen of a low-cost killed whole cell OCV in residents 1 year of age and older living in 3,933 clusters in Kolkata, India. The primary endpoint was culture-proven Vibrio cholerae O1 diarrhea episodes severe enough to require treatment in a health care facility. Of the 66,900 fully dosed individuals (31,932 vaccinees and 34,968 placebo recipients), 38 vaccinees and 128 placebo-recipients developed cholera during three years of follow-up (protective efficacy 66%; one-sided 95%CI lower bound = 53%, p<0.001). Vaccine protection during the third year of follow-up was 65% (one-sided 95%CI lower bound = 44%, p<0.001). Significant protection was evident in the second year of follow-up in children vaccinated at ages 1-4 years and in the third year in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The killed whole-cell OCV conferred significant protection that was evident in the second year of follow-up in young children and was sustained for at least three years in older age groups. Continued follow-up will be important to establish the vaccine's duration of protection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224.

Community participation in two vaccination trials in slums of Kolkata, India: a multi-level analysis.

This study aims at understanding the individual and community-level characteristics that influenced participation in two consecutive vaccine trials (typhoid and cholera) in urban slums of Kolkata, India. The study area was divided into 80 geographic clusters (communities), with 59,533 subjects aged > or = 2 years for analysis. A multi-level model was employed in which the individuals were seen nested within the cluster. Rates of participation in both the trials were nearly the same; those who participated in the initial trial were likely to participate in the subsequent cholera vaccine trial. Communities with predominantly Hindu population, lower percentage of households with an educated household head, or lower percentage of households owning a motorbike had higher participation than their counterparts. At individual scale, higher participation was observed among younger subjects, females, and individuals from households with a household head who had no or minimal education. Geographic patterns were also observed in participation in the trials. The results illustrated that participation in the trial was mostly influenced by various individual and community-level factors, which need to be addressed for a successful vaccination campaign.

Spatial risk for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China.

BACKGROUND: Although economic reforms have brought significant benefits, including improved health care to many Chinese people, accessibility to improved care has not been distributed evenly throughout Chinese society. Also, the effects of the uneven distribution of improved healthcare are not clearly understood. Evidence suggests that mortality is an indicator for evaluating accessibility to improved health care services. We constructed spatially smoothed risk maps for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China comprising both urban and rural areas and identified ecological factors of gender-specific mortality across societies. RESULTS: The study analyzed the data of the Hechi Prefecture in southern in China. An average of 124,204 people lived in the area during the study period (2002-2004). Individual level data for 2002-2004 were grouped using identical rectangular cells (regular lattice) of 0.25 km2. Poisson regression was fitted to the group level data to identify gender-specific ecological factors of adult (ages 15-<45 years) mortality. Adult male mortality was more than two-fold higher than adult female mortality. Adults were likely to die of injury, poisoning, or trauma. Significantly more deaths were observed in poor areas than in areas with higher incomes. Specifically, higher spatial risk for adult male mortality was clustered in two rural study areas, which did not overlap with neighborhoods with higher risk for adult female mortality. One high-risk neighborhood for adult female mortality was in a poor urban area. CONCLUSION: We found a disparity in mortality rates between rural and urban areas in the study area in southern China, especially for adult men. There were also differences in mortality rates between poorer and wealthy populations in both rural and urban areas, which may in part reflect differences in health care quality. Spatial influences upon adult male versus adult female mortality difference underscore the need for more research on gender-related influences on adult mortality in China.

A multicentre study of Shigella diarrhoea in six Asian countries: disease burden, clinical manifestations, and microbiology.

BACKGROUND: The burden of shigellosis is greatest in resource-poor countries. Although this diarrheal disease has been thought to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in excess of 1,000,000 deaths globally per year, little recent data are available to guide intervention strategies in Asia. We conducted a prospective, population-based study in six Asian countries to gain a better understanding of the current disease burden, clinical manifestations, and microbiology of shigellosis in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 600,000 persons of all ages residing in Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand were included in the surveillance. Shigella was isolated from 2,927 (5%) of 56,958 diarrhoea episodes detected between 2000 and 2004. The overall incidence of treated shigellosis was 2.1 episodes per 1,000 residents per year in all ages and 13.2/1,000/y in children under 60 months old. Shigellosis incidence increased after age 40 years. S. flexneri was the most frequently isolated Shigella species (1,976/2,927 [68%]) in all sites except in Thailand, where S. sonnei was most frequently detected (124/146 [85%]). S. flexneri serotypes were highly heterogeneous in their distribution from site to site, and even from year to year. PCR detected ipaH, the gene encoding invasion plasmid antigen H in 33% of a sample of culture-negative stool specimens. The majority of S. flexneri isolates in each site were resistant to amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole. Ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri isolates were identified in China (18/305 [6%]), Pakistan (8/242 [3%]), and Vietnam (5/282 [2%]). CONCLUSIONS: Shigella appears to be more ubiquitous in Asian impoverished populations than previously thought, and antibiotic-resistant strains of different species and serotypes have emerged. Focusing on prevention of shigellosis could exert an immediate benefit first by substantially reducing the overall diarrhoea burden in the region and second by preventing the spread of panresistant Shigella strains. The heterogeneous distribution of Shigella species and serotypes suggest that multivalent or cross-protective Shigella vaccines will be needed to prevent shigellosis in Asia.

Estimating the burden of shigellosis in Thailand: 36-month population-based surveillance study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate incidence of shigellosis in the Kaengkhoi district, Saraburi Province, Thailand. METHODS: Population-based surveillance of shigellosis based in treatment centres. The detected rates of treated shigellosis were corrected for the number of cases missed due to the low sensitivity of microbiological culture methods and participants' use of health-care providers not participating in the study. FINDINGS: The overall uncorrected incidence of shigellosis was 0.6/1000 population per year (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5-0.8). The unadjusted incidence of treated shigellosis was highest among children less than 5 years old (4/1000 children per year; 95% CI = 3-6) and significantly lower among people aged > 5 years (0.3/1000 population per year; 95% CI = 0.2-0.5; P < 0.001). Adjusting for cases likely to be missed as a result of culture and surveillance methods increased estimates approximately five times. The majority of Shigella isolates (122/146; 84%) were S. sonnei; the rest were S. flexneri. Of the 22 S. flexneri isolates, the three most frequently encountered serotypes were 2a (36%), 1b (23%) and 3b (28%). A total of 90-95% of S. sonnei and S. flexneri isolates were resistant to tetracycline and co-trimoxazole. In contrast to S. sonnei isolates, more than 90% of the S. flexneri isolates were also resistant to ampicillin and chloramphenicol (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Estimates of incidence of Shigella infection in the community are 10-fold to 100-fold greater than those found from routine government surveillance. The high prevalence of Shigella strains resistant to multiple antibiotics adds urgency to the development of a vaccine to protect against shigellosis in this region of Thailand.