Improving the accuracy of automated gout flare ascertainment using natural language processing of electronic health records and linked Medicare claims data.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether integrating concepts from the notes from the electronic health record (EHR) data using natural language processing (NLP) could improve the identification of gout flares. METHODS: Using Medicare claims linked with EHR, we selected gout patients who initiated the urate-lowering therapy (ULT). Patients' 12-month baseline period and on-treatment follow-up were segmented into 1-month units. We retrieved EHR notes for months with gout diagnosis codes and processed notes for NLP concepts. We selected a random sample of 500 patients and reviewed each of their notes for the presence of a physician-documented gout flare. Months containing at least 1 note mentioning gout flares were considered months with events. We used 60% of patients to train predictive models with LASSO. We evaluated the models by the area under the curve (AUC) in the validation data and examined positive/negative predictive values (P/NPV). RESULTS: We extracted and labeled 839 months of follow-up (280 with gout flares). The claims-only model selected 20 variables (AUC = 0.69). The NLP concept-only model selected 15 (AUC = 0.69). The combined model selected 32 claims variables and 13 NLP concepts (AUC = 0.73). The claims-only model had a PPV of 0.64 [0.50, 0.77] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76], whereas the combined model had a PPV of 0.76 [0.61, 0.88] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76]. CONCLUSION: Adding NLP concept variables to claims variables resulted in a small improvement in the identification of gout flares. Our data-driven claims-only model and our combined claims/NLP-concept model outperformed existing rule-based claims algorithms reliant on medication use, diagnosis, and procedure codes.

Risk of Severe Hypoglycemia With Newer Second-line Glucose-lowering Medications in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Stratified by Known Indicators of Hypoglycemia Risk.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypoglycemia is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. We evaluated the risk of severe hypoglycemia in older adults initiating newer glucose-lowering medications overall and across strata of known indicators of high hypoglycemia risk. METHODS: We conducted a comparative-effectiveness cohort study of older adults aged >65 years with type 2 diabetes initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) or SGLT2i versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) using Medicare claims (3/2013-12/2018) and Medicare-linked-electronic health records. We identified severe hypoglycemia requiring emergency or inpatient visits using validated algorithms. After 1:1 propensity score matching, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1,000 person-years. Analyses were stratified by baseline insulin, sulfonylurea, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and frailty. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 7 (interquartile range: 4-16) months, SGLT2i was associated with a reduced risk of hypoglycemia versus DPP-4i (HR 0.75 [0.68, 0.83]; RD -3.21 [-4.29, -2.12]), and versus GLP-1RA (HR 0.90 [0.82, 0.98]; RD -1.33 [-2.44, -0.23]). RD for SGLT2i versus DPP-4i was larger in patients using baseline insulin than in those not, although HRs were similar. In patients using baseline sulfonylurea, the risk of hypoglycemia was lower in SGLT2i versus DPP-4i (HR 0.57 [0.49, 0.65], RD -6.80 [-8.43, -5.16]), while the association was near-null in those without baseline sulfonylurea. Results stratified by baseline CVD, CKD and frailty were similar to the overall cohort findings. Findings for the GLP-1RA comparison were similar. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i was associated with a lower hypoglycemia risk versus incretin-based medications, with larger associations in patients using baseline insulin or sulfonylurea.

Comparative Safety of Gout Treatment Strategies on Cardiovascular Outcomes Using Observational Data: Clone-censor-weight Target Trial Emulation Approach.

BACKGROUND: We sought to examine the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies for gout using Medicare claims data linked to electronic health record laboratory data. METHODS: We selected patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy. We emulated a hypothetical trial comparing the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death) among seven different strategies over 24 months. Three aspects were considered in defining increasingly intensive strategies: (1) continuation of urate-lowering therapy, (2) serum urate monitoring, and (3) modification of urate-lowering therapy when serum urate >6 mg/dl. We applied the "clone-censor-weight" method to account for baseline and time-varying confounding. RESULTS: We identified 4402 patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy (mean age 77; male 60%). During a total of 6611 person-years (PY) of follow-up under usual care, the rate of major cardiovascular events (first and recurrent) was 4.5/100 PY (95% CI = 4.0, 5.1). The rate ratios (RRs) suggested reductions (RR point estimates 0.88-0.84) compared with usual care. All 95% CIs were imprecise, but their upper bounds excluded substantial increase in RRs. RRs were closer to 1.0 for the analysis focusing on the first major adverse cardiovascular event during follow-up and on comparison to the strategy requiring continuation of urate-lowering therapy (but not necessarily titration). CONCLUSIONS: Our treatment strategy trial emulation did not find increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events with intensive urate-lowering strategies. Results may provide reassurance of the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies recommended by rheumatology societies.

Using Data-Driven Approaches to Classify and Predict Health Care Spending in Patients With Gout Using Urate-Lowering Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Despite increasing overall health care spending over the past several decades, little is known about long-term patterns of spending among US patients with gout. Current approaches to assessing spending typically focus on composite measures or patients agnostic to disease state; in contrast, examining spending using longitudinal measures may better discriminate patients and target interventions to those in need. We used a data-driven approach to classify and predict spending patterns in patients with gout. METHODS: Using insurance claims data from 2017-2019, we used group-based trajectory modeling to classify patients ages 40 years or older diagnosed with gout and treated with urate-lowering therapy (ULT) by their total health care spending over 2 years. We assessed the ability to predict membership in each spending group using logistic and generalized boosted regression with split-sample validation. Models were estimated using different sets of predictors and evaluated using C statistics. RESULTS: In 57,980 patients, the mean ± SD age was 71.0 ± 10.5 years, and 17,194 patients (29.7%) were female. The best-fitting model included the following groups: minimal spending (13.2%), moderate spending (37.4%), and high spending (49.4%). The ability to predict groups was high overall (e.g., boosted C statistics with all predictors: minimal spending [0.89], moderate spending [0.78], and high spending [0.90]). Although average adherence was relatively high in the population, for the high-spending group, the most influential predictors were greater gout medication adherence and diabetes melllitus diagnosis. CONCLUSION: We identified distinct long-term health care spending patterns in patients with gout using ULT with high accuracy. Several clinical predictors could be key areas for intervention, such as gout medication use or diabetes melllitus.

Racial differences in persistent glucocorticoid use patterns among medicaid beneficiaries with incident systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: Glucocorticoids ("steroids") are frequently used in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Prolonged use may contribute to racial/ethnic disparities in avoidable adverse outcomes. We examined racial/ethnic differences in longitudinal patterns of steroid use and dose. METHODS: We identified Medicaid beneficiaries 18-65 years with incident SLE who received steroids for 12 months following the index date. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify patterns of daily prednisone-equivalent steroid doses. We examined demographic, clinical and healthcare utilization factors during the baseline period and used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the odds of belonging to the higher vs. lowest steroid dose trajectories over time. RESULTS: We identified 6314 individuals with SLE with ≥1 dispensed steroid prescription. The mean (SD) prednisone-equivalent dose was 7 (23) mg/day for Black, 7 (26) for Hispanic, 7 (13) for Asian, and 4 (10) for White individuals. Adjusted multinomial models demonstrated higher odds of belonging to the highest vs. lowest steroid trajectory for Black (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.65-2.61), Hispanic (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.38-2.39), and Asian (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.53-3.83) vs. White individuals. Having >5 outpatient visits during the baseline period was associated with lower odds of being in the persistently high-dose steroid trajectory (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.60-0.98). CONCLUSION: Black, Hispanic, and Asian (vs. White) individuals had higher odds of persistently high-dose steroid use. Sustained access to outpatient care and the development of standardized steroid-tapering regimens from clinical trials with diverse populations may be targets for intervention to mitigate disparities in steroid-related adverse outcomes.

Association of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors With Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes.

Importance: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) have demonstrated many cardiovascular and kidney function benefits for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the results of SGLT-2i use in primary prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF) were inconsistent in clinical trials, and incident AF was not a prespecified end point. Objective: To examine incident AF with initiation of an SGLT-2i compared with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) or a glucagonlike peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) among older adults (aged ≥66 years) with T2D in routine clinical practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: A population-based new-user cohort study included older adults with T2D who had no history of AF and were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service from April 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018. Data analysis was performed from June 28 to December 1, 2021. Exposures: To control for potential confounding, new users of SGLT-2i were 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched to new users of DPP-4is or GLP-1RAs in 2 pairwise comparisons based on 138 baseline covariates. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident AF, defined as an inpatient diagnosis code for AF. Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years, with their 95% CIs, were estimated in the PS-matched groups. Results: New users of SGLT-2is were 1:1 PS-matched to new users of a DPP-4i (n = 74 868) or GLP-1RA (n = 80 475). Overall, the mean (SD) age of study participants was 72 (5) years, and 165 984 were women (53.4%). The risk of incident AF was lower in the SGLT-2i group than the matched DPP-4i group (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.89; RD, -3.7; 95% CI, -5.2 to -2.2 per 1000 person-years) or the matched GLP-1RA group (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98; RD, -1.8; 95% CI, -3.2 to -0.3 per 1000 person-years). Results were consistent across several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the initiation of an SGLT-2i was associated with a reduced risk of incident AF compared with a DPP-4i or GLP-1RA. The results may be helpful when weighing the potential risks and benefits of various glucose level-lowering agents in older adults with T2D.

Comparative Effectiveness of Empagliflozin vs Liraglutide or Sitagliptin in Older Adults With Diverse Patient Characteristics.

Importance: Limited evidence is available on the comparative effectiveness of empagliflozin vs alternative second-line glucose-lowering agents in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) receiving routine care who have a broad spectrum of cardiorenal risk. Objective: To evaluate the association of empagliflozin with cardiovascular outcomes relative to liraglutide and sitagliptin, stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective comparative effectiveness cohort study used deidentified Medicare claims data from August 1, 2014, to September 30, 2018, with follow-up from drug initiation until treatment changes, death, or gap in Medicare enrollment (>30 days). Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to April 30, 2022. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries older than 65 years with T2D were included. A total of 45 788 patients (22 894 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or liraglutide) were included in cohort 1, and 45 624 patients (22 812 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or sitagliptin) were included in cohort 2. Exposures: Empagliflozin vs liraglutide (cohort 1) or empagliflozin vs sitagliptin (cohort 2). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were (1) modified major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality, and (2) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years were estimated, adjusting for 143 baseline covariates using 1:1 propensity score matching. Results: Among 45 788 patients in cohort 1, the mean (SD) age was 71.9 (5.1) years; 23 396 patients (51.1%) were female, 22 392 (48.9%) were male, and 38 049 (83.1%) were White. Among 45 624 patients in cohort 2, the mean (SD) age was 72.1 (5.1) years; 21 418 patients (46.9%) were female, 24 206 (53.1%) were male, and 37 814 (82.9%) were White. Relative to patients initiating liraglutide, those initiating empagliflozin had a similar risk of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.79-1.03) and a reduced risk of HHF (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82). Across subgroups, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of the modified MACE outcome in patients with a history of ASCVD (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98) and HF (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00) compared with liraglutide, and potential heterogeneity in estimates was observed by sex (male: HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.71-1.01]; female: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.94-1.42]; P = .02 for homogeneity). However, reductions in the risk of HHF were observed across most subgroups (eg, ASCVD: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]; HF: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.49-0.88]). Compared with sitagliptin, empagliflozin was associated with reduced risks of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.60-0.77) and HHF (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.36-0.56), which were consistent across all subgroups. Absolute benefits of empagliflozin vs sitagliptin were larger in patients with a history of ASCVD (modified MACE: RD, -17.6 [95% CI, -24.9 to -10.4]; HHF: RD, -16.7 [95% CI, -21.7 to -11.9]), HF (modified MACE: RD, -41.1 [95% CI, -59.9 to -22.6]; HHF: RD, -50.4 [95% CI, -67.5 to -33.9]), or CKD (modified MACE: RD, -26.7 [95% CI, -41.3 to -12.3]; HHF: RD, -31.9 [95% CI, -43.5 to -20.8]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study of older adults, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of HHF (relative to both liraglutide and sitagliptin) and the modified MACE outcome (relative to sitagliptin), with larger absolute benefits in patients with established cardiorenal diseases. These findings suggest that older adults with T2D might benefit more from empagliflozin vs liraglutide or sitagliptin with respect to the risk of HHF; with respect to the risk of MACEs, empagliflozin might be preferable to liraglutide only in patients with cardiovascular disease history and to sitagliptin across all patient subgroups.

Cardiovascular Risks of Hydroxychloroquine vs Methotrexate in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine is often used as a first-line treatment of rheumatoid arthritis despite limited evidence on its cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a cardiovascular safety evaluation comparing hydroxychloroquine to methotrexate among patients with rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: Using Medicare data (2008-2016), we identified 54,462 propensity score-matched patients with rheumatoid arthritis, aged ≥65 years, who initiated hydroxychloroquine or methotrexate. Primary outcomes were sudden cardiac arrest or ventricular arrythmia (SCA/VA) and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalized heart failure (HF). We also examined treatment effect modification by history of HF. RESULTS: Hydroxychloroquine was not associated with risk of SCA/VA (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.79-1.35) or MACE (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.18) compared with methotrexate. In patients with history of HF, hydroxychloroquine initiators had a higher risk of MACE (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.08-1.56), cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.06-1.70), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.04-1.43), myocardial infarction (HR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.25-2.42), and hospitalized HF (HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.07-1.54) compared to methotrexate initiators. Cardiovascular risks were not different in patients without history of HF except for an increased hospitalized HF risk (HR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.30-1.90) among hydroxychloroquine initiators. CONCLUSIONS: In older patients with rheumatoid arthritis, hydroxychloroquine and methotrexate showed similar SCA/VA and MACE risks; however, hydroxychloroquine initiators with history of HF had higher risks of MACE, cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and myocardial infarction. An increased hospitalized HF risk was observed among hydroxychloroquine initiators regardless of an HF history.

Comparative Risk of Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementia Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Rheumatoid Arthritis Treated With Targeted Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Agents.

Importance: Cytokine signaling, including tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin (IL)-6, through the Janus-kinase (JAK)-signal transducer and activator of transcription pathway, was hypothesized to attenuate the risk of Alzheimer disease and related dementia (ADRD) in the Drug Repurposing for Effective Alzheimer Medicines (DREAM) initiative based on multiomics phenotyping. Objective: To evaluate the association between treatment with tofacitinib, tocilizumab, or TNF inhibitors compared with abatacept and risk of incident ADRD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted among US Medicare fee-for-service patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 65 years and older from 2007 to 2017. Patients were categorized into 3 cohorts based on initiation of tofacitinib (a JAK inhibitor), tocilizumab (an IL-6 inhibitor), or TNF inhibitors compared with a common comparator abatacept (a T-cell activation inhibitor). Analyses were conducted from August 2020 to August 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was onset of ADRD based on diagnosis codes evaluated in 4 alternative analysis schemes: (1) an as-treated follow-up approach, (2) an as-started follow-up approach incorporating a 6-month induction period, (3) incorporating a 6-month symptom to diagnosis period to account for misclassification of ADRD onset, and (4) identifying ADRD through symptomatic prescriptions and diagnosis codes. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were calculated from Cox proportional hazard regression after adjustment for 79 preexposure characteristics through propensity score matching. Results: After 1:1 propensity score matching to patients using abatacept, a total of 22 569 propensity score-matched patient pairs, including 4224 tofacitinib pairs (mean [SD] age 72.19 [5.65] years; 6945 [82.2%] women), 6369 tocilizumab pairs (mean [SD] age 72.01 [5.46] years; 10 105 [79.4%] women), and 11 976 TNF inhibitor pairs (mean [SD] age 72.67 [5.91] years; 19 710 [82.3%] women), were assessed. Incidence rates of ADRD varied from 2 to 18 per 1000 person-years across analyses schemes. There were no statistically significant associations of ADRD with tofacitinib (analysis 1: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.55-1.51]; analysis 2: HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.53-1.13]; analysis 3: HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 0.72-2.33]; analysis 4: HR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.21-1.20]), tocilizumab (analysis 1: HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.55-1.21]; analysis 2: HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.81-1.35]; analysis 3: HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 0.75-1.96]; analysis 4: HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.44-1.39]), or TNF inhibitors (analysis 1: HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.72-1.20]; analysis 2: HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.86-1.20]; analysis 3: HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.86-1.48]; analysis 4: 0.90 [95% CI, 0.60-1.37]) compared with abatacept. Results from prespecified subgroup analysis by age, sex, and baseline cardiovascular disease were consistent except in patients with cardiovascular disease, for whom there was a potentially lower risk of ADRD with TNF inhibitors vs abatacept, but only in analyses 2 and 4 (analysis 1: HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.50-1.16]; analysis 2: HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.56-0.99]; analysis 3: HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.65-1.61]; analysis 4: HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.21-0.98]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study did not find any association of risk of ADRD in patients treated with tofacitinib, tocilizumab, or TNF inhibitors compared with abatacept.

Three Sides to the Story: Adherence Trajectories During the First Year of SGLT2 Inhibitor Therapy Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to understand the factors associated with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) adherence and longitudinal adherence trajectories in older adults with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using Medicare claims data (April 2013-December 2017), we identified 83,675 new SGLT2i users ≥66 years old with type 2 diabetes. We measured SGLT2i adherence as the proportion of days covered (PDC) during the first year of SGLT2i therapy. We used linear regression to assess the association between baseline covariates and PDC. Then we used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct longitudinal SGLT2i adherence groups and used a multivariable logistic regression model to examine the association between baseline covariates and membership in these adherence groups. RESULTS: Unadjusted mean PDC was 63%. Previous adherence to statins had the strongest positive association with PDC (regression coefficient 6.00% [95% CI 5.50, 6.50]), whereas female sex (-5.51% [-6.02, -5.00]), and Black race/ethnicity (-5.06% [-6.03, -4.09]) had the strongest negative association. We identified three adherence trajectory groups: low (23% of patients, mean PDC 17%), moderate (32%, mean PDC 50%), and high (45%, mean PDC 96%) adherence. More patients in the high adherence group were previously adherent to statins (odds ratio 1.43 [95% CI 1.39, 1.48]), and more women (1.28 [1.23, 1.32]) and Black patients (1.31 [1.23, 1.40]) were in the low adherence group. CONCLUSIONS: In a large population of older patients with type 2 diabetes, 45% were highly adherent during the first year of SGLT2i treatment. Female sex and Black race/ethnicity were most strongly associated with low adherence.

Development of a Medicare Claims-Based Model to Predict Persistent High-Dose Opioid Use After Total Knee Replacement.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a claims-based model to predict persistent high-dose opioid use among patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: Using Medicare claims (2010-2014), we identified patients ages ≥65 years who underwent TKR with no history of high-dose opioid use (mean >25 morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]/day) in the year prior to TKR. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct opioid use patterns. The primary outcome was persistent high-dose opioid use in the year after TKR. We split the data into training (2010-2013) and test (2014) sets and used logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization, utilizing a total of 83 preoperative patient characteristics as candidate predictors. A reduced model with 10 prespecified variables, which included demographic characteristics, opioid use, and medication history was also considered. RESULTS: The final study cohort included 142,089 patients who underwent TKR. The group-based trajectory model identified 4 distinct trajectories of opioid use (group 1: short-term, low-dose; group 2: moderate-duration, low-dose; group 3: moderate-duration, high-dose; and group 4: persistent high-dose). The model predicting persistent high-dose opioid use achieved high discrimination (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.84-0.86]) in the test set. The reduced model with 10 predictors performed equally well (AUC 0.84 [95% CI 0.84-0.85]). CONCLUSION: In this cohort of older patients, 10.6% became persistent high-dose (mean 22.4 MME/day) opioid users after TKR. Our model with 10 readily available clinical factors may help identify patients at high risk of future adverse outcomes from persistent opioid use after TKR.

SGLT2 Inhibitors and the Risk of Acute Kidney Injury in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been found to have many benefits for patients with type 2 diabetes. However, whether SGLT2 inhibitors increase the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) remains unknown. We examined the association of AKI hospitalization with prior initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor compared with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor or a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) among older adults with type 2 diabetes in routine practice. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Older adults aged at least 66 years with type 2 diabetes enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service and who were new users of SGLT2 inhibitor, DPP-4 inhibitor, or GLP-1RA agents in the interval from March 2013 to December 2017. EXPOSURES: New use of an SGLT2 inhibitor versus new use of a DPP-4 inhibitor or GLP-1RA. OUTCOME: The primary outcome was hospitalization for AKI, defined as a discharge diagnosis of AKI in the primary or secondary position. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: New users of SGLT2 inhibitors were matched at a 1:1 ratio to new users of DPP-4 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs using propensity scores in 2 pairwise comparisons. Cox proportional hazards regression models generated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs in propensity score-matched groups. RESULTS: Totals of 68,130 and 71,477 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors were matched to new users of DPP-4 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs, respectively. Overall, the mean age of study participants was 72 years. The risk of AKI was lower in the SGLT2 inhibitor group than in the DPP-4 inhibitor group (HR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.65-0.76]) or the GLP-1RA group (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.75-0.87]). LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding and lack of laboratory data. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with type 2 diabetes, initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor was associated with a reduced risk of AKI compared with initiation of a DPP-4 inhibitor or a GLP-1RA.

Giant cell arteritis treatment patterns and rates of serious infections.

OBJECTIVES: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) afflicts older adults who may have age- and comorbidity-related risks for infection and is treated with immunosuppressants that increase risk of infection. We examined GCA treatment patterns and rates of serious infections in two real-world cohorts in the U.S. METHODS: We identified two GCA cohorts using two U.S. health insurance databases, Medicare (public, 2007-2017) and MarketScan (commercial, 2015-2019), by applying a validated claims-based algorithm with positive predictive value 79.0% for GCA. We required age ≥50 years and assessed baseline comorbidities, dispensing of immunosuppressants and prophylactic antibiotics, and vaccine administration. We calculated incidence rates (IR) of serious infections, defined as bacterial or viral infections requiring hospitalisation based on primary inpatient diagnosis code. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios for risk of serious infection for prespecified covariates. RESULTS: The Medicare cohort included 734 patients, 28% male, mean age 77.1; the MarketScan cohort included 1022 patients, 30% male, mean age 68.4. More than 85% used prednisone ≥60mg daily at index date and <10% used tocilizumab. Serious infections developed in 27.9% of Medicare and 7.2% of MarketScan patients: IR per 100 person-years = 10.7 (95% CI 9.3, 12.2) in Medicare and 6.3 (95% CI 5.0, 7.9) in MarketScan. Older age and higher frailty score were significantly associated with increased risk for serious infection. CONCLUSIONS: In these two U.S. GCA cohorts, high-dose glucocorticoids were the most common initial treatment, and over 25% of Medicare and 7% of MarketScan patients developed serious infection during follow-up. Older age and higher frailty score were associated with higher risk of serious infections, though maximum daily prednisone dose was not. Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia was rare in two GCA cohorts despite infrequent use of prophylactic antibiotics.

Risk of venous thromboembolism associated with methotrexate versus hydroxychloroquine for rheumatoid arthritis: A propensity score-matched cohort study.

AIMS: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), likely related to underlying inflammation. We examined VTE risk associated with two commonly used immunomodulators in RA patients, methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using U.S. Medicare claims data (2008-2017), we identified RA patients (≥65 years) who initiated methotrexate or hydroxychloroquine without prior use of any immunomodulators. The primary outcome was VTE, a composite of pulmonary embolism (PE) or deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Secondary outcomes included PE, DVT, and all-cause mortality. After 1:1 propensity score matching for confounding control, we identified 26,534 pairs of methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine initiators (mean (SD) age 74 (7) years; 79% female). During a total of 56,686 person-years of follow-up, 208 methotrexate and 83 hydroxychloroquine initiators developed VTE. The incidence rate of VTE was higher among methotrexate initiators (6.94/1,000 person-years) than hydroxychloroquine initiators (3.11/1,000 person-years) with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.26 (95% CI 1.75, 2.91). Methotrexate initiators had a greater risk of PE (HR 3.30, 95% CI 2.28, 4.77) and DVT (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.07, 2.19) than hydroxychloroquine initiators. All-cause mortality was similar between the two groups (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83, 1.00). CONCLUSION: In this large real-world cohort of older RA patients, treatment with methotrexate was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of VTE relative to hydroxychloroquine, although all-cause mortality was similar. Future experimental studies with non-user control groups are needed to determine the causal relationships between the study drugs and VTE and whether methotrexate elevates or hydroxychloroquine reduces the risk of VTE.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors Versus Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and the Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes in Routine Care Patients With Diabetes Across Categories of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Both sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have shown cardiovascular benefits in placebo-controlled trials of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established cardiovascular disease (CVD). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 RAs are associated with differential cardiovascular benefit among T2D patients with and without CVD. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Medicare and 2 U.S. commercial claims data sets (April 2013 to December 2017). PARTICIPANTS: 1:1 propensity score-matched adult T2D patients with and without CVD (52 901 and 133 139 matched pairs) initiating SGLT2 inhibitor versus GLP-1 RA therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes were myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke hospitalization and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years were estimated, with 95% CIs, controlling for 138 preexposure covariates. RESULTS: The initiation of SGLT2 inhibitor versus GLP-1 RA therapy was associated with a slightly lower risk for MI or stroke in patients with CVD (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82 to 0.98]; RD, -2.47 [CI, -4.45 to -0.50]) but similar risk in those without CVD (HR, 1.07 [CI, 0.97 to 1.18]; RD, 0.38 [CI, -0.30 to 1.07]). The initiation of SGLT2 inhibitor versus GLP-1 RA therapy was associated with reductions in HHF risk regardless of baseline CVD in patients with CVD (HR, 0.71 [CI, 0.64 to 0.79]; RD, -4.97 [CI, -6.55 to -3.39]) and in those without CVD (HR, 0.69 [CI, 0.56 to 0.85]; RD, -0.58 [CI, -0.91 to -0.25]). LIMITATION: Treatment selection was not randomized. CONCLUSION: Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 RAs was associated with consistent reductions in HHF risk among T2D patients with and without CVD, although the absolute benefit was greater in patients with CVD. There were no large differences in risk for MI or stroke among T2D patients with and without CVD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School.

Validation of obesity-related diagnosis codes in claims data.

AIM: To determine whether body mass index (BMI) can be accurately identified in epidemiological studies using claims databases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the Mass General Brigham Research Patient Data Repository-Medicare-linked database, we identified a cohort of patients with a BMI measurement for the periods January 1 to June 31, 2014 or January 1 to June 31, 2016, to capture both the International Classification of Disease (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 eras. Patients were divided into two groups, with or without an obesity-related ICD code in the 6 months before or after the BMI measurement date. We created two binary measures, first for composite overweight, obesity, or severe obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 ), and second for obesity or severe obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2 ). We calculated accuracy measures (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV] and negative predictive value [NPV]) for each obesity category for the overall cohort, and stratified by type 2 diabetes and ICD-code era. RESULTS: The cohort included 73 644 patients with a BMI measurement in 2014 or 2016, of whom 16 280 had an obesity-related ICD code. The specificity of obesity-related ICD codes (ICD-9 and ICD-10) was 99.7% for underweight/normal weight, 97.4% for overweight, 99.7% for obese and 98.9% for severely obese. For binary categories capturing BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 , specificity was 97.0% and 98.2%, and PPV was 86.9% and 97.3%. Sensitivity was low overall (<40%). Codes for patients with type 2 diabetes and codes in the ICD-10 era had higher sensitivity, PPV and NPV. CONCLUSION: Obesity-related ICD codes can accurately identify patients with obesity in epidemiological studies using claims databases.

Utilization of targeted disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) for managing rheumatoid arthritis in the last decade: A two-country comparison.

OBJECTIVE: To compare trends in the use of targeted disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), between Korea and Australia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using sampled claims databases in Korea and Australia (2010 - 2018), we analyzed the trends in the use of individual targeted DMARDs (biologic and targeted synthetic) for RA in both countries. RESULTS: The use of targeted DMARDs for the management of RA showed an increase of over 200 and 300% in Australia and Korea, respectively. The tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) etanercept and adalimumab were the most commonly prescribed drugs in 2010 in both countries, with non-TNFi use increasing over the study period. The introduction of tofacitinib in 2015 led to 10 and 15% market share uptake in Korea and Australia, respectively. CONCLUSION: Trends in the use of targeted DMARDs for RA were similar in Korea and Australia, and the use of non-TNFis, including tofacitinib, increased in both countries.

Validation of claims-based algorithms to identify patients with psoriasis.

PURPOSE: Accurately identifying patients with psoriasis (PsO) is crucial for generating real-world evidence on PsO disease course and treatment utilization. METHODS: We developed nine claims-based algorithms for PsO using a combination of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes, specialist visit, and medication dispensing using Medicare linked to electronic health records data (2013-2014) in two healthcare provider networks in Boston, Massachusetts. We calculated positive predictive value (PPV) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each algorithm using the treating physician's diagnosis of PsO via chart review as the gold standard. Among the confirmed PsO cases, we assessed their PsO disease activity. RESULTS: The nine claims-based algorithms identified 990 unique patient records. Of those, 918 (92.7%) with adequate information were reviewed. The PPV of the algorithms ranged from 65.1 to 82.9%. An algorithm defined as ≥1 ICD-9 diagnosis code for PsO and ≥1 prescription claim for topical vitamin D agents showed the highest PPV (82.9%). The PPV of the algorithm requiring ≥2 ICD-9 diagnosis codes and ≥1 prescription claim for PsO treatment excluding topical steroids was 81.1% but higher (82.5%) when ≥1 diagnosis was from a dermatologist. Among 411 PsO patients with adequate information on PsO disease activity in EHRs, 1.5-5.8% had no disease activity, 31.3-36.8% mild, and 26.9-35.1% moderate-to-severe across the algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: Claims-based algorithms based on a combination of PsO diagnosis codes and dispensing for PsO-specific treatments had a moderate-to-high PPV. These algorithms can serve as a useful tool to identify patients with PsO in future real-world data pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors Versus Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: Both sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) demonstrated cardiovascular benefits in randomized controlled trials of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) generally <65 years old and mostly with cardiovascular disease. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA among real-world older adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using Medicare data (April 2013-December 2016), we identified 90,094 propensity score-matched (1:1) T2D patients ≥66 years old initiating SGLT2i or GLP-1RA. Primary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Other outcomes included diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), genital infections, fractures, lower-limb amputations (LLA), acute kidney injury (AKI), severe urinary tract infections, and overall mortality. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1,000 person-years, controlling for 140 baseline covariates. RESULTS: Compared with GLP-1RA, SGLT2i initiators had similar MACE risk (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.87, 1.10]; RD -0.38 [95% CI -2.48, 1.72]) and reduced HHF risk (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.57, 0.80]; RD -3.23 [95% CI -4.68, -1.77]), over a median follow-up of ∼6 months. They also had 0.7 more DKA events (RD 0.72 [95% CI 0.02, 1.41]), 0.9 more LLA (RD 0.90 [95% CI 0.10, 1.70]), 57.1 more genital infections (RD 57.08 [95% CI 53.45, 60.70]), and 7.1 fewer AKI events (RD -7.05 [95% CI -10.27, -3.83]) per 1,000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, those taking SGLT2i had similar MACE risk, decreased HHF risk, and increased risk of DKA, LLA, and genital infections versus those taking GLP-1RA.