Changes in Demand Volume and Patient/Health Care Provider Characteristics of First-Time Telehealth Users: A Comparative Analysis Before and After the COVID-19 Policy Response Using the Administrative Claims Database.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a decrease in demand for medical services in Japan, but the utilization of telehealth, which the Japanese government has recently promoted, has seen a temporary increase. This study aims to analyze the trend of telehealth utilization and changes in patient characteristics following the policy response to COVID-19. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed data from 26,152 adult patients who used telehealth for the first time between April 2019 and April 2021 in Mie Prefecture, Japan. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in the number of first-time patients before and after April 2020. Results: The number of telehealth users increased by 111.87% after April 2020, but the trend showed a declining slope thereafter. Patient characteristics and disease types showed different trends. The percentage of patients choosing a hospital over a clinic increased for the first time. Conclusions: After the policy response to COVID-19, the number of first-time telehealth users overall increased immediately, but gradually showed a declining trend. However, some diseases have shown both an immediate increase and a continued upward trend in telehealth utilization. Patients with these diseases may be candidates for adopting telehealth services in clinical settings.

Predicting demand for long-term care using Japanese healthcare insurance claims data.

BACKGROUND: Driven by the rapid aging of the population, Japan introduced public long-term care insurance to reinforce healthcare services for the elderly in 2000. Precisely predicting future demand for long-term care services helps authorities to plan and manage their healthcare resources and citizens to prevent their health status deterioration. METHODS: This paper presents our novel study for developing an effective model to predict individual-level future long-term care demand using previous healthcare insurance claims data. We designed two discriminative models and subsequently trained and validated the models using three learning algorithms with medical and long-term care insurance claims and enrollment records, which were provided by 170 regional public insurers in Gifu, Japan. RESULTS: The prediction model based on multiclass classification and gradient-boosting decision tree achieved practically high accuracy (weighted average of Precision, 0.872; Recall, 0.878; and F-measure, 0.873) for up to 12 months after the previous claims. The top important feature variables were indicators of current health status (e.g., current eligibility levels and age), risk factors to worsen future healthcare status (e.g., dementia), and preventive care services for improving future healthcare status (e.g., training and rehabilitation). CONCLUSIONS: The intensive validation tests have indicated that the developed prediction method holds high robustness, even though it yields relatively lower accuracy for specific patient groups with health conditions that are hard to distinguish.

Projecting prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Dementia and frailty often accompany one another in older age, requiring complex care and resources. Available projections provide little information on their joint impact on future health-care need from different segments of society and the associated costs. Using a newly developed microsimulation model, we forecast this situation in Japan as its population ages and decreases in size. METHODS: In this microsimulation modelling study, we built a model that simulates an individual's status transition across 11 chronic diseases (including diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke) as well as depression, functional status, and self-reported health, by age, sex, and educational strata (less than high school, high school, and college and higher), on the basis of nationally representative health surveys and existing cohort studies. Using the simulation results, we projected the prevalence of dementia and frailty, life expectancy with these conditions, and the economic cost for formal and informal care over the period 2016-43 in the population of Japan aged 60 years and older. FINDINGS: Between 2016 and 2043, life expectancy at age 65 years will increase from 23·7 years to 24·9 years in women and from 18·7 years to 19·9 years in men. Years spent with dementia will decrease from 4·7 to 3·9 years in women and 2·2 to 1·4 years in men. By contrast, years spent with frailty will increase from 3·7 to 4·0 years for women and 1·9 to 2·1 for men, and across all educational groups. By 2043, approximately 29% of women aged 75 years and older with a less than high school education are estimated to have both dementia and frailty, and so will require complex care. The expected need for health care and formal long-term care is anticipated to reach costs of US$125 billion for dementia and $97 billion for frailty per annum in 2043 for the country. INTERPRETATION: Japan's Government and policy makers should consider the potential social challenges in caring for a sizable population of older people with frailty and dementia, and a widening disparity in the burden of those conditions by sex and by educational status. The future burden of dementia and frailty should be countered not only by curative and preventive technology innovation, but also by social policies to mitigate the health gap. FUNDING: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Hitachi - the University of Tokyo Laboratory for a sustainable society, and the National Institute of Ageing.

Indications and classes of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions in Japan: A descriptive study using the national database of electronic health insurance claims, 2012-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate condition-specific antibiotic prescription rates and the appropriateness of antibiotic use in outpatient settings in Japan. METHODS: Using Japan's national administrative claims database, all outpatient visits with infectious disease diagnoses were linked to reimbursed oral antibiotic prescriptions. Prescription rates stratified by age, sex, prefecture, and antibiotic category were determined for each infectious disease diagnosis. The proportions of any antibiotic prescription to all infectious disease visits and the proportions of first-line antibiotic prescriptions to all antibiotic prescriptions were calculated for each infectious disease diagnosis. RESULTS: Of the 659 million infectious disease visits between April 2012 and March 2015, antibiotics were prescribed in 266 million visits (704 prescriptions per 1000 population per year). Third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides, and quinolones accounted for 85.9% of all antibiotic prescriptions. Fifty-six percent of antibiotic prescriptions were directed toward infections for which antibiotics are generally not indicated. The diagnoses with frequent antibiotic prescription were bronchitis (184 prescriptions per 1000 population per year), viral upper respiratory infections (166), pharyngitis (104), sinusitis (52), and gastrointestinal infection (41), for which 58.3%, 40.6%, 58.9%, 53.9%, and 26.1% of visits antibiotics were prescribed, respectively. First-line antibiotics were rarely prescribed for pharyngitis (8.8%) and sinusitis (9.8%). More antibiotics were prescribed for children aged 0-9 years, adult women, and patients living in western Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescription rates are high in Japan. Acute respiratory or gastrointestinal infections, which received the majority of the antibiotics generally not indicated, should be the main targets of antimicrobial stewardship intervention.