Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards.

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented.

Low biological cost of carbapenemase-encoding plasmids following transfer from Klebsiella pneumoniae to Escherichia coli.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to determine the biological cost, stability and sequence of two carbapenemase-encoding plasmids containing blaKPC-2 (pG12-KPC-2) and blaVIM-1 (pG06-VIM-1) isolated from Klebsiella pneumoniae when newly acquired by uropathogenic Escherichia coli clinical isolates of different genetic backgrounds. METHODS: The two plasmids were transferred into plasmid-free E. coli clinical isolates by transformation. The fitness effect of newly acquired plasmids on the host cell was assessed in head-to-head competitions with the corresponding isogenic strain. Plasmid stability was estimated by propagating monocultures for ∼312 generations. Plasmid nucleotide sequences were determined using next-generation sequencing technology. Assembly, gap closure, annotation and comparative analyses were performed. RESULTS: Both plasmids were stably maintained in three of four E. coli backgrounds and resulted in low to moderate reductions in host fitness ranging from 1.1% to 3.6%. A difference in fitness cost was observed for pG12-KPC-2 between two different genetic backgrounds, while no difference was detected for pG06-VIM-1 between three different genetic backgrounds. In addition, a difference was observed between pG12-KPC-2 and pG06-VIM-1 in the same genetic background. In general, the magnitude of biological cost of plasmid carriage was both host and plasmid dependent. The sequences of the two plasmids showed high backbone similarity to previously circulating plasmids in K. pneumoniae. CONCLUSIONS: The low to modest fitness cost of newly acquired and stably maintained carbapenemase-encoding plasmids in E. coli indicates a potential for establishment and further dissemination into other Enterobacteriaceae species. We also show that the fitness cost is both plasmid and host specific.

Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better policy decisions when attempting to mitigate climate and social change impacts. The CLIWASEC clustering offers an encouraging path for the new European Commission Horizon 2020 programme to follow.