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1.
medRxiv ; 2023 Nov 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38076979

RESUMO

Residents of informal urban settlements have a high risk of COVID-19 exposure and have less access to medical care, making vaccine-driven prevention critical in this vulnerable population. Despite robust vaccination campaigns in Brazil, vaccine uptake and timing continue to be influenced by social factors and contribute to health disparities. To address this, we conducted a sequential survey in a cohort of 717 adults in an urban favela in Salvador, Brazil where participants were interviewed in 2020, before vaccines were rolled out, and in 2022, after primary and booster dose distribution. We collected data on demographics, social characteristics, and COVID-19 vaccination status and intent. Primary series uptake was high (91.10% for 1 st dose and 94.74% for 2 nd dose among eligible); however, booster uptake was lower (63.51% of eligible population) at the time of the second interview, suggesting a decreasing interest in vaccination. To account for both vaccine refusal and delays, we conducted a Cox time-to-event analysis of dose uptake using sequential independent outcomes. Exposure times were determined by dose eligibility date to account for age and comorbidities. Intent to vaccinate in 2020 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.54, CI: [1.05, 1.98]) and age (HR: 1.27, CI: [1.01, 2.08]) were associated with higher vaccination rates for the 1 st dose. Males were less likely to receive the 1 st dose (HR: 0.61, CI: [0.35, 0.83]), and, compared to catholics, 2 nd dose uptake was lower for those identifying with Pentecostalism (HR: 0.49, CI: [0.37, 0.66]) and without a religion (HR: 0.49, CI: [0.37, 0.66]), with the latter association disappearing after controlling by age. Risk perception was associated with 2 nd dose uptake (HR: 1.15, CI: [1.08, 1.26]). The role of sex and religion in vaccination behavior highlights the need for targeted outreach and interfacing with local organizations. The data offers lessons to build a long-term COVID-19 vaccination strategy beyond availability.

2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35647574

RESUMO

Background: Globally, prisons are high-incidence settings for tuberculosis. Yet the role of prisons as reservoirs of M. tuberculosis, propagating epidemics through spillover to surrounding communities, has been difficult to measure directly. Methods: To quantify the role of prisons in driving wider community M. tuberculosis transmission, we conducted prospective genomic surveillance in Central West Brazil from 2014 to 2019. We whole genome sequenced 1152 M. tuberculosis isolates collected during active and passive surveillance inside and outside prisons and linked genomes to detailed incarceration histories. We applied multiple phylogenetic and genomic clustering approaches and inferred timed transmission trees. Findings: M. tuberculosis sequences from incarcerated and non-incarcerated people were closely related in a maximum likelihood phylogeny. The majority (70.8%; 46/65) of genomic clusters including people with no incarceration history also included individuals with a recent history of incarceration. Among cases in individuals with no incarceration history, 50.6% (162/320) were in clusters that included individuals with recent incarceration history, suggesting that transmission chains often span prisons and communities. We identified a minimum of 18 highly probable spillover events, M. tuberculosis transmission from people with a recent incarceration history to people with no prior history of incarceration, occurring in the state's four largest cities and across sampling years. We additionally found that frequent transfers of people between the state's prisons creates a highly connected prison network that likely disseminates M. tuberculosis across the state. Interpretation: We developed a framework for measuring spillover from high-incidence environments to surrounding communities by integrating genomic and spatial information. Our findings indicate that, in this setting, prisons serve not only as disease reservoirs, but also disseminate M. tuberculosis across highly connected prison networks, both amplifying and propagating M. tuberculosis risk in surrounding communities. Funding: Brazil's National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and US National Institutes of Health.

4.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(7): e0009612, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34329305

RESUMO

This study aims to describe the sociodemographic determinants associated with exposure to Zika Virus (ZIKV) in pregnant women during the 2015-2016 epidemic in Salvador, Brazil. METHODS: We recruited women who gave birth between October 2015 and January 2016 to a cross-sectional study at a referral maternity hospital in Salvador, Brazil. We collected information on their demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics, and evaluated their ZIKV exposure using a plaque reduction neutralization test. Logistic regression was then used to assess the relationship between these social determinants and ZIKV exposure status. RESULTS: We included 469 pregnant women, of whom 61% had a positive ZIKV result. Multivariate analysis found that lower education (adjusted Prevalence Rate [aPR] 1.21; 95%CI 1.04-1.35) and food insecurity (aPR 1.17; 95%CI 1.01-1.30) were positively associated with ZIKV exposure. Additionally, age was negatively associated with the infection risk (aPR 0.99; 95%CI 0.97-0.998). CONCLUSION: Eve after controlling for age, differences in key social determinants, as education and food security, were associated with the risk of ZIKV infection among pregnant women in Brazil. Our findings elucidate risk factors that can be targeted by future interventions to reduce the impact of ZIKV infection in this vulnerable population.


Assuntos
Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/virologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Infecção por Zika virus/economia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/economia , Fatores de Risco
6.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(4)2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33755009

RESUMO

We analyzed feasibility of pooling saliva samples for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 testing and found that sensitivity decreased according to pool size: 5 samples/pool, 7.4% reduction; 10 samples/pool, 11.1%; and 20 samples/pool, 14.8%. When virus prevalence is >2.6%, pools of 5 require fewer tests; when <0.6%, pools of 20 support screening strategies.


Assuntos
Teste de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19/métodos , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Saliva/virologia , Manejo de Espécimes/métodos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Fortalecimento Institucional/métodos , Alocação de Recursos para a Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Limite de Detecção , Alocação de Recursos/métodos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Estados Unidos
7.
J Infect Dis ; 224(5): 860-864, 2021 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33395487

RESUMO

To understand the disease burden of sexually transmitted Zika virus (ZIKV), we prospectively followed a cohort of 359 adult and adolescent residents of an urban community in Salvador, Brazil, through the 2015 ZIKV epidemic. Later, in 2017, we used a retrospective survey to associate sexual behavior during the epidemic with ZIKV infection as defined by immunoglobulin G3 NS1 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We found that males who engaged in casual sexual encounters during the epidemic were more likely (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2 [95% confidence interval, 1.2-64.1]) to be ZIKV positive, suggesting that specific groups may be at increased risk of sexually transmitted infections.


Assuntos
Áreas de Pobreza , Comportamento Sexual , Doenças Virais Sexualmente Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , População Urbana
8.
Clin Infect Dis ; 72(5): 771-777, 2021 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32064514

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among incarcerated populations globally. We performed mass TB screening in 3 prisons and assessed yield, efficiency, and costs associated with various screening algorithms. METHODS: Between 2017 and 2018, inmates from 3 prisons in Brazil were screened for TB by symptom assessment, chest radiography, sputum testing by Xpert MTB/RIF fourth-generation assay, and culture. Chest radiographs were scored by an automated interpretation algorithm (Computer-Aided Detection for Tuberculosis [CAD4TB]) that was locally calibrated to establish a positivity threshold. Four diagnostic algorithms were evaluated. We assessed the yield (percentage of total cases found) and efficiency (prevalence among those screened) for each algorithm. We performed unit costing to estimate the costs of each screening or diagnostic test and calculated the cost per case detected for each algorithm. RESULTS: We screened 5387 prisoners, of whom 214 (3.9%) were diagnosed with TB. Compared to other screening strategies initiated with chest radiography or symptoms, the trial of all participants with a single Xpert MTB/RIF sputum test detected 74% of all TB cases at a cost of US$249 per case diagnosed. Performing Xpert MTB/RIF screening tests only on those with symptoms had a similar cost per case diagnosed (US$255) but missed 35% more cases (73 vs 54) as screening all inmates. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study in 3 prisons in a high TB burden country, we found that testing all inmates with sputum Xpert MTB/RIF was a sensitive approach, while remaining cost-efficient. These results support use of Xpert MTB/RIF for mass screening in TB-endemic prisons.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Algoritmos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento , Prisões , Estudos Prospectivos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Escarro , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
9.
J Urban Health ; 97(3): 348-357, 2020 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32333243

RESUMO

The informal settlements of the Global South are the least prepared for the pandemic of COVID-19 since basic needs such as water, toilets, sewers, drainage, waste collection, and secure and adequate housing are already in short supply or non-existent. Further, space constraints, violence, and overcrowding in slums make physical distancing and self-quarantine impractical, and the rapid spread of an infection highly likely. Residents of informal settlements are also economically vulnerable during any COVID-19 responses. Any responses to COVID-19 that do not recognize these realities will further jeopardize the survival of large segments of the urban population globally. Most top-down strategies to arrest an infectious disease will likely ignore the often-robust social groups and knowledge that already exist in many slums. Here, we offer a set of practice and policy suggestions that aim to (1) dampen the spread of COVID-19 based on the latest available science, (2) improve the likelihood of medical care for the urban poor whether or not they get infected, and (3) provide economic, social, and physical improvements and protections to the urban poor, including migrants, slum communities, and their residents, that can improve their long-term well-being. Immediate measures to protect residents of urban informal settlements, the homeless, those living in precarious settlements, and the entire population from COVID-19 include the following: (1) institute informal settlements/slum emergency planning committees in every urban informal settlement; (2) apply an immediate moratorium on evictions; (3) provide an immediate guarantee of payments to the poor; (4) immediately train and deploy community health workers; (5) immediately meet Sphere Humanitarian standards for water, sanitation, and hygiene; (6) provide immediate food assistance; (7) develop and implement a solid waste collection strategy; and (8) implement immediately a plan for mobility and health care. Lessons have been learned from earlier pandemics such as HIV and epidemics such as Ebola. They can be applied here. At the same time, the opportunity exists for public health, public administration, international aid, NGOs, and community groups to innovate beyond disaster response and move toward long-term plans.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Áreas de Pobreza , População Urbana , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/organização & administração , Habitação/normas , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Saneamento/métodos , Saúde da População Urbana , Populações Vulneráveis
10.
Am J Epidemiol ; 189(7): 634-639, 2020 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32003778

RESUMO

Over the past century, the field of epidemiology has evolved and adapted to changing public health needs. Challenges include newly emerging public health concerns across broad and diverse content areas, new methods, and vast data sources. We recognize the need to engage and educate the next generation of epidemiologists and prepare them to tackle these issues of the 21st century. In this commentary, we suggest a skeleton framework upon which departments of epidemiology should build their curriculum. We propose domains that include applied epidemiology, biological and social determinants of health, communication, creativity and ability to collaborate and lead, statistical methods, and study design. We believe all students should gain skills across these domains to tackle the challenges posed to us. The aim is to train smart thinkers, not technicians, to embrace challenges and move the expanding field of epidemiology forward.


Assuntos
Currículo , Epidemiologistas/educação , Epidemiologia/educação , Epidemiologia/tendências , Previsões , Humanos , Saúde Pública/educação , Saúde Pública/tendências
11.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 100(1_Suppl): 3-8, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30430982

RESUMO

Mentoring is a proven path to scientific progress, but it is not a common practice in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing mentoring approaches and guidelines are geared toward high-income country settings, without considering in detail the differences in resources, culture, and structure of research systems of LMICs. To address this gap, we conducted five Mentoring-the-Mentor workshops in Africa, South America, and Asia, which aimed at strengthening the capacity for evidence-based, LMIC-specific institutional mentoring programs globally. The outcomes of the workshops and two follow-up working meetings are presented in this special edition of the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Seven articles offer recommendations on how to tailor mentoring to the context and culture of LMICs, and provide guidance on how to implement mentoring programs. This introductory article provides both a prelude and executive summary to the seven articles, describing the motivation, cultural context and relevant background, and presenting key findings, conclusions, and recommendations.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica/educação , Educação/organização & administração , Saúde Global/educação , Tutoria/métodos , Mentores , Ensino/organização & administração , África , Ásia , Comparação Transcultural , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Humanos , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Institucionalização , Tutoria/economia , América do Sul
12.
Rev Saude Publica ; 52: 56, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29791676

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE To estimate age and sex-specific suicide rates, compare suicide rates between indigenous communities, and quantify the frequency of intrafamilial suicide clustering. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study involving 14,666 indigenous individuals in reservations in Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, from 2003 through 2013 using national and local census. RESULTS The overall suicide rate was 73.4 per 100,000 person-years. Adolescent males aged 15-19 and girls aged 10-14 had the highest rates for each sex at 289.3 (95%CI 187.5-391.2) and 85.3 (95%CI 34.9-135.7), respectively. Comparing the largest reservations, Bororo had a higher suicide rate than Jaguapiru (RR = 4.83, 95%CI 2.85-8.16) and had significantly lower socioeconomic indicators including income and access to electricity. Nine of 19 suicides among children under 15 occurred in household clusters. Compared with adult suicides, a greater proportion of child (OR = 5.12, 95%CI 1.89-13.86, p = 0.001) and adolescent (OR = 3.48, 95%CI 1.29-9.44, p = 0.017) suicides occurred within household clusters. CONCLUSIONS High rates of suicide occur among children and adolescents in these indigenous reservations, particularly in poor communities. Nearly half of child suicides occur within household clusters. These findings underscore the need for broad public health interventions and focused mental health interventions in households following a suicide.


Assuntos
Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Saúde do Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Saúde da Criança , Análise por Conglomerados , Características da Família , Feminino , Humanos , Indígenas Sul-Americanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Suicídio/tendências , Adulto Jovem
13.
Rev. saúde pública (Online) ; 52: 56, 2018. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS | ID: biblio-903471

RESUMO

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate age and sex-specific suicide rates, compare suicide rates between indigenous communities, and quantify the frequency of intrafamilial suicide clustering. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study involving 14,666 indigenous individuals in reservations in Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, from 2003 through 2013 using national and local census. RESULTS The overall suicide rate was 73.4 per 100,000 person-years. Adolescent males aged 15-19 and girls aged 10-14 had the highest rates for each sex at 289.3 (95%CI 187.5-391.2) and 85.3 (95%CI 34.9-135.7), respectively. Comparing the largest reservations, Bororo had a higher suicide rate than Jaguapiru (RR = 4.83, 95%CI 2.85-8.16) and had significantly lower socioeconomic indicators including income and access to electricity. Nine of 19 suicides among children under 15 occurred in household clusters. Compared with adult suicides, a greater proportion of child (OR = 5.12, 95%CI 1.89-13.86, p = 0.001) and adolescent (OR = 3.48, 95%CI 1.29-9.44, p = 0.017) suicides occurred within household clusters. CONCLUSIONS High rates of suicide occur among children and adolescents in these indigenous reservations, particularly in poor communities. Nearly half of child suicides occur within household clusters. These findings underscore the need for broad public health interventions and focused mental health interventions in households following a suicide.


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto , Adulto Jovem , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Suicídio/tendências , Brasil/epidemiologia , Indígenas Sul-Americanos , Análise por Conglomerados , Fatores Sexuais , Características da Família , Saúde da Criança , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores Etários , Saúde do Adolescente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
14.
Nat Rev Microbiol ; 15(8): 502-510, 2017 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28555073

RESUMO

Zoonotic spillover, which is the transmission of a pathogen from a vertebrate animal to a human, presents a global public health burden but is a poorly understood phenomenon. Zoonotic spillover requires several factors to align, including the ecological, epidemiological and behavioural determinants of pathogen exposure, and the within-human factors that affect susceptibility to infection. In this Opinion article, we propose a synthetic framework for animal-to-human transmission that integrates the relevant mechanisms. This framework reveals that all zoonotic pathogens must overcome a hierarchical series of barriers to cause spillover infections in humans. Understanding how these barriers are functionally and quantitatively linked, and how they interact in space and time, will substantially improve our ability to predict or prevent spillover events. This work provides a foundation for transdisciplinary investigation of spillover and synthetic theory on zoonotic transmission.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Saúde Pública/legislação & jurisprudência , Zoonoses/transmissão , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Bactérias/patogenicidade , Infecções Bacterianas/microbiologia , Infecções Bacterianas/prevenção & controle , Infecções Bacterianas/transmissão , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Reservatórios de Doenças , Humanos , Viroses/prevenção & controle , Viroses/transmissão , Viroses/virologia , Vírus/patogenicidade
15.
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 33(2): e00132115, 2017. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS | ID: biblio-839647

RESUMO

Abstract: We analyzed environmental factors that provide food, water and harborage to rodents and the risk of household rodent infestation in a slum community with a high risk of leptospirosis transmission. Detailed environmental surveys were performed in 221 households. Multivariate regression models evaluated the association between rodent infestation and socioeconomic status and environmental attributes obtained from Geographical Information System surveys. The general household infestation rate was 45.9%. Rattus norvegicus signs were the most prevalent, present in 74% of the infested households. The risk for rodent infestation was associated with environmental factors supporting harborage for rats, such as dilapidated fences/walls (OR: 8.95; 95%CI: 2.42-33.12) and households built on an earthen slope (OR: 4.68; 95%CI: 2.23-9.81). An increase of 1 meter from the nearest sewer was associated with a 3% (95%CI: 1%-5%) decrease in the risk of rodent infestation. A lack of sanitation where poor people live provides factors for rat infestation and could the target of educational interventions.


Resumo: O estudo analisou fatores ambientais que facilitam a presença de alimento, água e abrigo para roedores e risco de infestação por roedores numa comunidade com alto risco de transmissão da leptospirose. Foram realizados inquéritos ambientais detalhados em 221 domicílios. Modelos de regressão multivariada avaliaram a associação entre infestação por roedores e nível socioeconômico e atributos ambientais obtidos através de inquéritos com Sistemas de Informação Geográfica. O estudo mostrou uma taxa global de 45,9% de infestação domiciliar. Sinais de Rattus norvegicus eram os mais prevalentes, presentes em 74% dos domicílios infestados. O risco de infestação por roedores esteve associado a fatores ambientais que forneciam abrigo aos ratos, tais como cercas e muros dilapidados (OR: 8,95; IC95%: 2,42-33,12) e domicílios construídos diretamente sobre encostas (OR: 4,68; IC95%: 2,23-9,81). Cada incremento de um metro de distância a partir do esgoto mais próximo esteve associado a uma diminuição de 3% (IC95%: 1%-5%) no risco de infestação por roedores. A falta de saneamento básico nos locais de moradia das famílias pobres facilita a infestação por ratos e é alvo prioritário para intervenções educativas.


Resumen: El estudio analizó factores ambientales que facilitan la presencia de alimento, agua y abrigo para roedores y el riesgo de infestación por roedores en una comunidad sin recursos con alto riesgo de transmisión de la leptospirosis. Se realizaron encuestas ambientales detalladas en 221 domicilios. Los modelos de regresión multivariada evaluaron la asociación entre infestación por roedores, nivel socioeconómico y características ambientales, obtenidos a través de encuestas con Sistemas de Información Geográfica. El estudio mostró una tasa global de un 45,9% de infestación domiciliaria. Los indicios de Rattus norvegicus eran los más prevalentes, presentes en un 74% de los domicilios infestados. El riesgo de infestación por roedores estuvo asociado a factores ambientales que proporcionaban abrigo a las ratas, tales como cercas y muros derruidos (OR: 8,95; IC95%: 2,42-33,12) y domicilios construidos directamente sobre pendientes (OR: 4,68; IC95%: 2,23-9,81). Cada incremento de un metro de distancia, a partir del alcantarillado más próximo, estuvo asociado a una disminución de un 3% (IC95%: 1%-5%) en el riesgo de infestación por roedores. La falta de saneamiento básico en las viviendas de las familias pobres facilita la infestación por ratas y es el objetivo prioritario para intervenciones educativas.


Assuntos
Humanos , Animais , Ratos , Áreas de Pobreza , Leptospirose/transmissão , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Brasil , Características de Residência , Saúde da População Urbana , Análise Multivariada , Fatores de Risco , Densidade Demográfica
16.
Urban Ecosyst ; 19(2): 561-575, 2016 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27453682

RESUMO

Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) living in urban environments are a critical public health and economic problem, particularly in urban slums where residents are at a higher risk for rat borne diseases, yet convenient methods to quantitatively assess population sizes are lacking. We evaluated track plates as a method to determine rat distribution and relative abundance in a complex urban slum environment by correlating the presence and intensity of rat-specific marks on track plates with findings from rat infestation surveys and trapping of rats to population exhaustion. To integrate the zero-inflated track plate data we developed a two-component mixture model with one binary and one censored continuous component. Track plate mark-intensity was highly correlated with signs of rodent infestation (all coefficients between 0.61 and 0.79 and all p-values < 0.05). Moreover, the mean level of pre-trapping rat-mark intensity on plates was significantly associated with the number of rats captured subsequently (Odds ratio1.38; 95% CI 1.19-1.61) and declined significantly following trapping (Odds ratio 0.86; 95% CI 0.78-0.95). Track plates provided robust proxy measurements of rat abundance and distribution and detected rat presence even when populations appeared 'trapped out'. Tracking plates are relatively easy and inexpensive methods that can be used to intensively sample settings such as urban slums, where traditional trapping or mark-recapture studies are impossible to implement, and therefore the results can inform and assess the impact of targeted urban rodent control campaigns.

17.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 10(5): e0004743, 2016 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27205899

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As Zika virus continues to spread, decisions regarding resource allocations to control the outbreak underscore the need for a tool to weigh policies according to their cost and the health burden they could avert. For example, to combat the current Zika outbreak the US President requested the allocation of $1.8 billion from Congress in February 2016. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Illustrated through an interactive tool, we evaluated how the number of Zika cases averted, the period during pregnancy in which Zika infection poses a risk of microcephaly, and probabilities of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) impact the cost at which an intervention is cost-effective. From Northeast Brazilian microcephaly incidence data, we estimated the probability of microcephaly in infants born to Zika-infected women (0.49% to 2.10%). We also estimated the probability of GBS arising from Zika infections in Brazil (0.02% to 0.06%) and Colombia (0.08%). We calculated that each microcephaly and GBS case incurs the loss of 29.95 DALYs and 1.25 DALYs per case, as well as direct medical costs for Latin America and the Caribbean of $91,102 and $28,818, respectively. We demonstrated the utility of our cost-effectiveness tool with examples evaluating funding commitments by Costa Rica and Brazil, the US presidential proposal, and the novel approach of genetically modified mosquitoes. Our analyses indicate that the commitments and the proposal are likely to be cost-effective, whereas the cost-effectiveness of genetically modified mosquitoes depends on the country of implementation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Current estimates from our tool suggest that the health burden from microcephaly and GBS warrants substantial expenditures focused on Zika virus control. Our results justify the funding committed in Costa Rica and Brazil and many aspects of the budget outlined in the US president's proposal. As data continue to be collected, new parameter estimates can be customized in real-time within our user-friendly tool to provide updated estimates on cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions in country-specific settings.


Assuntos
Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Política de Saúde , Infecção por Zika virus/economia , Infecção por Zika virus/prevenção & controle , Aedes/genética , Aedes/virologia , Animais , Animais Geneticamente Modificados , Brasil/epidemiologia , Região do Caribe/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Análise Custo-Benefício/legislação & jurisprudência , Costa Rica/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/economia , Surtos de Doenças/legislação & jurisprudência , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Microcefalia/etiologia , Microcefalia/prevenção & controle , Microcefalia/virologia , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/economia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/prevenção & controle , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/virologia , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/virologia
18.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 10(1): e0004275, 2016 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26771379

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a prospective study of 2,003 slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil during a four-year period (2003-2007) and used a spatiotemporal modelling approach to delineate the dynamics of leptospiral transmission. Household interviews and Geographical Information System surveys were performed annually to evaluate risk exposures and environmental transmission sources. We completed annual serosurveys to ascertain leptospiral infection based on serological evidence. Among the 1,730 (86%) individuals who completed at least one year of follow-up, the infection rate was 35.4 (95% CI, 30.7-40.6) per 1,000 annual follow-up events. Male gender, illiteracy, and age were independently associated with infection risk. Environmental risk factors included rat infestation (OR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.00-2.16), contact with mud (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.17) and lower household elevation (OR 0.92 per 10m increase in elevation, 95% CI 0.82-1.04). The spatial distribution of infection risk was highly heterogeneous and varied across small scales. Fixed effects in the spatiotemporal model accounted for the majority of the spatial variation in risk, but there was a significant residual component that was best explained by the spatial random effect. Although infection risk varied between years, the spatial distribution of risk associated with fixed and random effects did not vary temporally. Specific "hot-spots" consistently had higher transmission risk during study years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The risk for leptospiral infection in urban slums is determined in large part by structural features, both social and environmental. Our findings indicate that topographic factors such as household elevation and inadequate drainage increase risk by promoting contact with mud and suggest that the soil-water interface serves as the environmental reservoir for spillover transmission. The use of a spatiotemporal approach allowed the identification of geographic outliers with unexplained risk patterns. This approach, in addition to guiding targeted community-based interventions and identifying new hypotheses, may have general applicability towards addressing environmentally-transmitted diseases that have emerged in complex urban slum settings.


Assuntos
Leptospira/fisiologia , Leptospirose/transmissão , Adolescente , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Humanos , Leptospirose/economia , Leptospirose/epidemiologia , Leptospirose/microbiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Áreas de Pobreza , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Saúde da População Urbana/economia , Adulto Jovem
19.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 9(10): e0004122, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26431366

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million) from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.


Assuntos
Saúde Global , Leptospirose/mortalidade , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Avaliação da Deficiência , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Incerteza
20.
PLoS One ; 10(10): e0139487, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26466312

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have reported higher HIV prevalence among prisoners than the general population in Brazil, but data have been derived from single prisons. The aim of this study was to evaluate HIV testing practices, prevalence and linkage to care among inmates in a network of 12 prisons. METHODS: We administered a questionnaire to a population-based sample of inmates from 12 prisons in Central-West Brazil and collected sera for HIV and syphilis testing from January to December 2013. We evaluated factors associated with HIV testing and infection using multivariable logistic regression models. Six months after HIV testing, we assessed whether each HIV-infected prisoner was engaged in clinical care and whether they had started antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS: We recruited 3,362 inmates, of whom 2,843 (85%) were men from 8 prisons, and 519 (15%) were women from 4 prisons. Forty-five percent of participants reported never having been tested for HIV previously. In multivariable analysis, the variables associated with previous HIV testing were lack of a stable partner (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.18-1.60), completed more than four years of schooling (AOR 1.40; 95% CI: 1.20-1.64), history of previous incarceration (AOR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.43-1.98), history of mental illness (AOR 1.52; 95% CI: 1.31-1.78) and previous surgery (AOR 1.31; 95% CI: 1.12-1.52). Fifty-four (1.6%) of all participants tested positive for HIV; this included 44 (1.54%) men and 10 (1.92%) women. Among male inmates, HIV infection was associated with homosexuality (AOR 6.20, 95% CI: 1.73-22.22), self-report of mental illness (AOR 2.18, 95% CI: 1.13-4.18), history of sexually transmitted infections (AOR 3.28, 95% CI: 1.64-6.56), and syphilis sero-positivity (AOR 2.54, 95% CI: 1.20-5.39). Among HIV-infected individuals, 34 (63%) were unaware of their HIV status; only 23 of these 34 (68%) newly diagnosed participants could be reached at six month follow-up, and 21 of 23 (91%) were engaged in HIV care. CONCLUSIONS: HIV testing rates among prison inmates are low, and the majority of HIV-infected inmates were unaware of their HIV diagnosis. Incarceration can be an opportunity for diagnosis and treatment of HIV among vulnerable populations who have poor access to health services, but further work is needed on transitional HIV care for released inmates.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Prisioneiros , Prisões , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antirretrovirais/química , Brasil , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Razão de Chances , Prevalência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Sífilis/complicações , Sífilis/diagnóstico , Sífilis/epidemiologia , Populações Vulneráveis , Adulto Jovem
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