RESUMO
The rapid urbanization (UR) and industrialization in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) have resulted in a significant scarcity of water resources (WRs), highlighting the need to investigate the complex and dynamic relationship between UR and WR for sustainable urban development in ecologically fragile areas. This study utilizes the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM), spatial correlation analysis, and Tobit model to examine the coupling coordination relationship, spatial effects, and key factors between UR and WR in sixty prefecture-level cities within the YRB. The empirical findings reveal that the development of the WR subsystem lags behind the UR subsystem and that there is a significant spatial disequilibrium in the CCD between UR and WR. Specifically, the high-high clusters are located in the northwest and east, while the low-low clusters are spread in the southwest. Furthermore, investment in science and technology and economic development have a positive impact on the CCD, while government capacity, urban construction, and industrial structure have a negative impact. These results can provide valuable guidance for decision-making in urban planning for ecologically fragile areas facing water supply constraints.