The longitudinal association between external locus of control, social cognition and adolescent psychopathology.

PURPOSE: To investigate the longitudinal associations between social cognitive ability an external locus of control (externality) and adolescent psychopathology. METHODS: 7058 participants from a prospective population-based cohort provided data on externality, social communication, and emotion perception between 7 and 16 years and psychotic experiences and depressive symptoms at 12 and 18 years. Bivariate probit modelling was used to investigate associations between these risk factors and psychopathological outcomes. RESULTS: Externality was associated with psychopathology at 12 (psychotic experiences OR 1.23 95% CI 1.14, 1.33; depression OR 1.12 95% CI 1.02, 1.22) and 18 years (psychotic experiences OR 1.38 95% CI 1.23, 1.55; depression OR 1.40 95% CI 1.28, 1.52). Poor social communication was associated with depression at both ages (12 years OR 1.22 95% CI 1.11, 1.34; 18 years OR 1.21 95% CI 1.10, 1.33) and marginally associated with psychotic experiences. There was marginal evidence of a larger association between externality and psychotic experiences at 12 years (p = 0.06) and between social communication and depression at 12 years (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Externality was more strongly associated with psychotic experiences. At 18 years change in externality, between 8 and 16 years were associated with a larger increase in the risk of depression. Poor social communication was more strongly associated with depression.

Family socioeconomic position in early life and onset of depressive symptoms and depression: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether low parental socioeconomic position (SEP) at birth is associated only with early-onset depressive symptoms in offspring. METHODS: This prospective cohort study used data on 9193 individuals (4768 females, 4425 males) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Depressive symptoms during three age periods (10-12, 12-16, 16-20 years) were assessed using the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, and ICD-10 depression at age 18 was assessed using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. RESULTS: Low SEP was associated with increased incidence rates of depressive symptoms in all age periods, with indicators of low standard of living showing the strongest associations. For instance, incidence rate ratios for material hardship were 1.75 (95% CI [1.42-2.15]) at 10-12 years, 1.36 (1.16-1.61) at 12-16 years and 1.39 (1.21-1.59) at 16-20 years. Low SEP was also associated with increased odds of ICD-10 depression at 18 years, ranging from OR = 1.20 (95% CI [0.94-1.52]) for manual social class to 1.74 (1.35-2.24) for material hardship. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that depressive symptoms can be "subtyped" by the age of onset, because the association with low SEP was evident for early- and later-onset symptoms. If socioeconomic inequalities in early life have long-term adverse impacts on mental health, policies addressing these inequalities could benefit the mental health of the population.

Long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy as an adjunct to pharmacotherapy for treatment-resistant depression in primary care: follow-up of the CoBalT randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for people whose depression has not responded to antidepressants. However, the long-term outcome is unknown. In a long-term follow-up of the CoBalT trial, we examined the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy as an adjunct to usual care that included medication over 3-5 years in primary care patients with treatment-resistant depression. METHODS: CoBalT was a randomised controlled trial done across 73 general practices in three UK centres. CoBalT recruited patients aged 18-75 years who had adhered to antidepressants for at least 6 weeks and had substantial depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI-II] score ≥14 and met ICD-10 depression criteria). Participants were randomly assigned using a computer generated code, to receive either usual care or CBT in addition to usual care. Patients eligible for the long-term follow-up were those who had not withdrawn by the 12 month follow-up and had given their consent to being re-contacted. Those willing to participate were asked to return the postal questionnaire to the research team. One postal reminder was sent and non-responders were contacted by telephone to complete a brief questionnaire. Data were also collected from general practitioner notes. Follow-up took place at a variable interval after randomisation (3-5 years). The primary outcome was self-report of depressive symptoms assessed by BDI-II score (range 0-63), analysed by intention to treat. Cost-utility analysis compared health and social care costs with quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). This study is registered with isrctn.com, number ISRCTN38231611. FINDINGS: Between Nov 4, 2008, and Sept 30, 2010, 469 eligible participants were randomised into the CoBalT study. Of these, 248 individuals completed a long-term follow-up questionnaire and provided data for the primary outcome (136 in the intervention group vs 112 in the usual care group). At follow-up (median 45·5 months [IQR 42·5-51·1]), the intervention group had a mean BDI-II score of 19·2 (SD 13·8) compared with a mean BDI-II score of 23·4 (SD 13·2) for the usual care group (repeated measures analysis over the 46 months: difference in means -4·7 [95% CI -6·4 to -3·0, p<0·001]). Follow-up was, on average, 40 months after therapy ended. The average annual cost of trial CBT per participant was £343 (SD 129). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £5374 per QALY gain. This represented a 92% probability of being cost effective at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence QALY threshold of £20 000. INTERPRETATION: CBT as an adjunct to usual care that includes antidepressants is clinically effective and cost effective over the long-term for individuals whose depression has not responded to pharmacotherapy. In view of this robust evidence of long-term effectiveness and the fact that the intervention represented good value-for-money, clinicians should discuss referral for CBT with all those for whom antidepressants are not effective. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment.

Simultaneous multioutcome synthesis and mapping of treatment effects to a common scale.

OBJECTIVES: A new method is presented for both synthesizing treatment effects on multiple outcomes subject to measurement error and estimating coherent mapping coefficients between all outcomes. It can be applied to sets of trials reporting different combinations of patient- or clinician-reported outcomes, including both disease-specific measures and generic health-related quality-of-life measures. It is underpinned by a structural equation model that includes measurement error and latent common treatment effect factor. Treatment effects can be expressed on any of the test instruments that have been used. METHODS: This is illustrated in a synthesis of eight placebo-controlled trials of TNF-α inhibitors in ankylosing spondylitis, each reporting treatment effects on between two and five of a total six test instruments. RESULTS: The method has advantages over other methods for synthesis of multiple outcome data, including standardization and multivariate normal synthesis. Unlike standardization, it allows synthesis of treatment effect information from test instruments sensitive to different underlying constructs. It represents a special case of previously proposed multivariate normal models for evidence synthesis, but unlike the former, it also estimates mappings. Combining synthesis and mapping as a single operation makes more efficient use of available data than do current mapping methods and generates treatment effects that are consistent with the mappings. A limitation, however, is that it can only generate mappings to and from those instruments on which some trial data exist. CONCLUSIONS: The method should be assessed in a wide range of data sets on different clinical conditions, before it can be used routinely in health technology assessment.