Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. METHODS: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. RESULTS: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. LAY SUMMARY: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

Liver transplantation in Germany.

Liver transplantation (LT) is a well-accepted procedure for end-stage liver disease in Germany. In 2015, 1489 patients were admitted to the waiting list (including 1308 new admissions), with the leading etiologies being fibrosis and cirrhosis (n = 349), alcoholic liver disease (n = 302), and hepatobiliary malignancies (n = 220). Organ allocation in Germany is regulated within the Eurotransplant system based on urgency as expressed by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. In 2015, only 894 LTs (n = 48 from living donors) were performed at 23 German transplant centers, reflecting a shortage of organs. Several factors may contribute to the low number of organ donations. The German transplant legislation only accepts donation after brain death (not cardiac death), whereas advances in neurosurgery and a more frequently requested "palliative care" approach render fewer patients suitable as potential donors. The legislation further requires the active consent of the donor or first-degree relatives before donation. Ongoing debates within the German transplant field address the optimal management of patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and cholangiocarcinoma and measures to increase living donor transplantations. As a result of irregularities at mainly 4 German transplant centers that were exposed in 2012, guiding principles updated by the German authorities have since implemented strict rules (including internal and external auditing, the 8-eyes principle, mandatory repeated testing for alcohol consumption) to prohibit any manipulations in organ allocation. In conclusion, we will summarize important aspects on the management of LT in Germany, discuss legal and organizational aspects, and highlight challenges mainly related to the relative lack of organ donations, increasing numbers of extended criteria donors, and the peculiarities of the recipient patients. Liver Transplantation 22 1136-1142 2016 AASLD.