Global antibiotic consumption and usage in humans, 2000-18: a spatial modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance capacity; we aimed to use multiple data sources and statistical models to estimate global antibiotic consumption. METHODS: In this spatial modelling study, we used individual-level data from household surveys to inform a Bayesian geostatistical model of antibiotic usage in children (aged <5 years) with lower respiratory tract infections in LMICs. Antibiotic consumption data were obtained from multiple sources, including IQVIA, WHO, and the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net). The estimates of the antibiotic usage model were used alongside sociodemographic and health covariates to inform a model of total antibiotic consumption in LMICs. This was combined with a single model of antibiotic consumption in high-income countries to produce estimates of antibiotic consumption covering 204 countries and 19 years. FINDINGS: We analysed 209 surveys done between 2000 and 2018, covering 284 045 children with lower respiratory tract infections. We identified large national and subnational variations of antibiotic usage in LMICs, with the lowest levels estimated in sub-Saharan Africa and the highest in eastern Europe and central Asia. We estimated a global antibiotic consumption rate of 14·3 (95% uncertainty interval 13·2-15·6) defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 population per day in 2018 (40·2 [37·2-43·7] billion DDD), an increase of 46% from 9·8 (9·2-10·5) DDD per 1000 per day in 2000. We identified large spatial disparities, with antibiotic consumption rates varying from 5·0 (4·8-5·3) DDD per 1000 per day in the Philippines to 45·9 DDD per 1000 per day in Greece in 2018. Additionally, we present trends in consumption of different classes of antibiotics for selected Global Burden of Disease study regions using the IQVIA, WHO, and ESAC-net input data. We identified large increases in the consumption of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in North Africa and Middle East, and south Asia. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates antibiotic usage and consumption data and uses geostatistical modelling techniques to estimate antibiotic consumption for 204 countries from 2000 to 2018. Our analysis identifies both high rates of antibiotic consumption and a lack of access to antibiotics, providing a benchmark for future interventions. FUNDING: Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dengue knowledge, attitudes and practices and their impact on community-based vector control in rural Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Globally there are an estimated 390 million dengue infections per year, of which 96 million are clinically apparent. In Cambodia, estimates suggest as many as 185,850 cases annually. The World Health Organization global strategy for dengue prevention aims to reduce mortality rates by 50% and morbidity by 25% by 2020. The adoption of integrated vector management approach using community-based methods tailored to the local context is one of the recommended strategies to achieve these objectives. Understanding local knowledge, attitudes and practices is therefore essential to designing suitable strategies to fit each local context. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey in 600 randomly chosen households was administered in 30 villages in Kampong Cham which is one of the most populated provinces of Cambodia. KAP surveys were administered to a sub-sample of households where an entomology survey was conducted (1200 households), during which Aedes larval/pupae and adult female Aedes mosquito densities were recorded. Participants had high levels of knowledge regarding the transmission of dengue, Aedes breeding, and biting prevention methods; the majority of participants believed they were at risk and that dengue transmission is preventable. However, self-reported vector control practices did not match observed practices recorded in our surveys. No correlation was found between knowledge and observed practices either. CONCLUSION: An education campaign regarding dengue prevention in this setting with high knowledge levels is unlikely to have any significant effect on practices unless it is incorporated in a more comprehensive strategy for behavioural change, such a COMBI method, which includes behavioural models as well as communication and marketing theory and practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN85307778.