Impact of antiviral therapy for disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in patients with chronic hepatitis C: Markov chain model analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Antiviral therapy advancements resulted in an era in which eradication of hepatitis C has become a goal, however, there are few reports on the long-term course of liver disease progression with antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Markov model to analyze disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in hepatitis C Patients. METHODS: Patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 1432) were diagnosed between January 2012 and May 2021 in the Musashino Red Cross Hospital. Patients with other hepatitis virus co-infection, chronic liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the beginning of the study were excluded. A total of 618 patients with a 1-year or longer observation period were studied. The liver disease state was defined as chronic hepatitis (CH), compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC), decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC), and HCC. RESULTS: Cirrhosis and high FIB-4 index (≥3.61) were 42 cases (6.8%) and 208 cases (33.6%), respectively at the start of the study. The 40 years estimated transition analysis of 40-year-old CH low FIB-4 level (<3.61) revealed that the proportion of CH low/high, CLC low/high, DLC low/high, and HCC were 10.83%/10.86%, 0.35%/2.64%, 0%/3.21% 72.11% in untreated unit and 47.83%/9.21%, 6.69%/1.32%, 0.70%/0.99%, 33.27% in treated unit, respectively. Antiviral therapy suppressed liver fibrosis, disease progression, and HCC development significantly. CONCLUSION: Markov model analysis of hepatitis C virus patients showed the impact of antiviral therapy on the suppression of disease progression in the order of CH, CLC, and DLC.

Clinical usefulness of geriatric assessment in elderly patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma receiving sorafenib or lenvatinib therapy.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic strategies for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) in geriatric patients are important for real-world practice. However, there remain no established biomarkers or therapeutic strategies regarding the best second-line agent after atezolizumab plus bevacizumab therapy. AIM: In this study, we investigated the usefulness of modified Geriatric 8 (mG8) score in examining elderly patients (≥75 years old) with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) using sorafenib or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study assessed 101 elderly patients with u-HCC for their mG8 score (excluding elements of age from 8 items) and classified them into 2 groups according to their mG8 score: ≥11 as the high-score group and ≤ 10 as the low-score group. Among those taking sorafenib, no significant differences were noted in overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) between low and high mG8 score groups. Only modified albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade (2b/3 vs. 1/2a: HR 0.34; 95% CI, 0.17-0.69; p = .0029) was significantly associated with OS. Among those taking lenvatinib, patients with a high mG8 score (n = 26) had longer survival than those with a low mG8 score (n = 10) (20.0 months vs. 7.7 months: HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.11-0.89; p = .029). Intrahepatic tumor volume (<50% vs. ≥50%: HR 16.7; 95% CI, 1.71-163; p = .016) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) (<400 vs. ≥400: HR 3.38; 95% CI 0.84-19.7; p = .031) remained significant factors independently associated with OS. CONCLUSIONS: The mG8 score may contribute to making a decision when considering either sorafenib or lenvatinib as a treatment option for u-HCC in elderly patients.

Noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis and its clinical significance in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Liver fibrosis is the most important prognostic factor in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several noninvasive markers for fibrosis, including blood-based markers and imaging based-markers have been developed. Indirect fibrosis markers (e.g., fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score) consist of standard laboratory data and clinical parameters. Given its availability and high negative predictive value for advanced fibrosis, these markers are suitable for screening at primary care. Blood-based fibrogenesis markers (enhanced liver fibrosis and N-terminal propeptide of type 3 collagen), ultrasound-based modalities (vibration-controlled transient elastography, point shear wave elastography [SWE], and two-dimensional SWE), and magnetic resonance elastography have high diagnostic accuracy for liver fibrosis and are suitable for diagnosing liver fibrosis at secondary care centers. Sequential use of these markers can increase diagnostic accuracy and reduce health care costs. Furthermore, combining noninvasive makers may assist in identifying candidates for pharmacological trials and reducing screening failure. Emerging data suggest that these noninvasive markers are associated with liver-related events (hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensation) and mortality. Furthermore, delta change in noninvasive markers over time is also associated with time-course change in fibrosis, liver-related event risk, and mortality risk. However, the association between liver fibrosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is still controversial. CVD risk may decrease in patients with decompensated liver disease and noninvasive markers may be useful for assessing CVD risk in these patients. Therefore, noninvasive markers may be utilized as measures of fibrosis as well as real-time prognostic tools, in place of liver biopsy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus.

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

Characteristics and Healthcare Costs in the Aging Hepatitis B Population of Japan: A Nationwide Real-World Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Advancing age, comorbidity, and financial burden have been observed in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients globally. As Japan is leading the world in aging demographics, similar real-world data are urgently needed for its CHB population to inform all stakeholders. METHODS: This cross-sectional study characterized the demographics, comorbidities, and healthcare costs of a large Japanese real-world adult (≥18 years) CHB patient (ICD-10: B18.1) population from the Medical Data Vision database from January 01, 2012, to December 31, 2016. Comorbidities were identified by ICD-10 codes, and the annual point prevalence and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score were calculated. Annual mean and median all-cause healthcare utilization and costs per patient were calculated. Comparison tests were conducted for CCI scores, prevalence of comorbidities, and healthcare resource utilization and costs. RESULTS: We identified 11,125 CHB patients. Between 2012 and 2016, the mean age increased from 62.0 to 65.2 years, and the percentage of those aged ≥65 years increased from 45.6% to 60.7%. The prevalence of cirrhosis remained similar (5.8% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2016, p = 0.69) while hepatocellular carcinoma decreased from 6.3% to 4.5% (p < 0.01). The prevalence of nonliver comorbidities increased (40.9-52.0% for cancer [p < 0.01], 12.1-17.7% for osteoporosis [p < 0.01], and 10.7-15.0% for renal impairment [p < 0.01]). Healthcare resource utilization and costs also increased, with a 119.3% increase in median total healthcare costs from JPY 229,143 in 2012 to 502,467 in 2016 (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The CHB population of Japan is predominantly elderly and carry a high nonliver comorbidity burden, while incurring increasing healthcare costs.

Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma development by magnetic resonance elastography in chronic hepatitis C patients who achieved sustained virological responses by direct-acting antivirals.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after sustained virological response (SVR) is clinically important, and the usefulness of noninvasive markers for prediction HCC have been reported. The aim of this study was to compare the prediction accuracy for HCC development by noninvasive markers. A total of 346 patients with chronic hepatitis C without history of HCC who achieved SVR through direct-acting antivirals were included. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and serum fibrosis markers were measured 12 weeks after the end of treatment, and the subsequent HCC development was examined. The mean observation period was 26.4 ± 7.9 months, and 24 patients developed HCC. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of liver stiffness by MRE, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein and FIB-4 for predicting HCC within 3 years was 0.743, 0.697 and 0.647, respectively. The 1/2/3-year rates of HCC development in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.75 KPa were 6.6%, 11.9% and 14.5%, whereas they were 1.4%, 2.5% and 2.5% in patients with liver stiffness <3.75 KPa (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that liver stiffness ≥3.75 was an independent predictive factor for HCC development (hazard ratio, 3.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-9.99). In subgroup analysis, there were 132 patients who were <73 years old and had liver stiffness <3.75 KPa, and no HCC development was observed in these patients. Diagnostic accuracy for predicting HCC development was higher in MRE than serum fibrosis markers and measurement of liver stiffness by MRE could identify patients with high and low risk of HCC development after SVR.

Non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment correlates with collagen and elastic fiber quantity in patients with hepatitis C virus infection.

AIM: Elastic fiber deposition is a cause of irreversibility of liver fibrosis. However, to date, its relevance to clinical features has not yet been clarified. This study aimed to clarify the correlation between non-invasive markers of fibrosis and fiber quantity, including elastic fiber, obtained from computational analysis. METHODS: This retrospective study included 270 patients evaluated by non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment prior to liver biopsy. Of these patients, 95 underwent magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and 244 were assessed with Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2 binding protein (WFA+ -M2BP). Using whole-slide imaging of Elastica van Gieson-stained liver biopsy sections, the quantity of collagen, elastin, and total fiber (elastin + collagen) was determined. RESULTS: The total fiber quantity showed significant linear correlation with fibrosis stage F0-F4. Collagen fiber quantity increased from stage F0 to F4, whereas elastic fiber quantity increased significantly only from stage F2 to F3. Spearman's rank correlation test revealed that non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment significantly correlates with each fiber quantity, including correlation between total fiber quantity and the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (r = 0.361, P < 0.001), WFA+ -M2BP values (r = 0.404, P < 0.001), and liver stiffness value by MRE (r = 0.615, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses revealed that the area under ROC for predicting higher elastic fiber (>3.6%) is 0.731 by FIB-4 index, 0.716 by WFA+ -M2BP, and 0.822 by liver stiffness by MRE. CONCLUSION: Liver fibrosis correlates with fiber quantity through non-invasive assessment regardless of fiber type, including elastic fiber. Moreover, MRE is useful for predicting high amounts of elastic fiber.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment using gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatocyte phase magnetic resonance imaging.

AIM: To investigate whether the patients with hypovascular liver nodules determined on the arterial phase and hypointensity on the hepatocyte phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (hypovascular hypointense nodules) are at increased risk of hepatocarcinogenesis, we assessed subsequent typical hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development at any sites of the liver with and without such nodules. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-seven patients with chronic hepatitis B or C and without a history of HCC, including 68 with liver cirrhosis, were divided into those with (non-clean liver group, n = 18) and without (clean liver group, n = 109) hypovascular hypointense nodules. All the patients were followed up for 3 years, and HCC development rates and risk factors were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard model, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 17 patients (10 in the non-clean liver group and seven in the clean liver group) developed typical HCC. Cumulative 3-year rates of HCC development were 55.5% in the non-clean liver group and 6.4% in the clean liver group (P < 0.001), and those at the different sites from the initial nodules was also higher in the non-clean liver group (22.2%) than the clean liver group (6.4%) (P = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified older age (P = 0.024), low platelet counts (P = 0.017) and a non-clean liver (P < 0.001) as independent risk factors for subsequent HCC development. CONCLUSION: Patients with hypovascular hypointense liver nodules are at a higher risk for HCC development at any sites of the liver than those without such nodules.

Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. METHODS: Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (n = 691) or an internal validation group (n = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis. RESULTS: Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (r² = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥ 80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥ 2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4-2.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.