Investigating the effect of sexual behaviour on oropharyngeal cancer risk: a methodological assessment of Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus infection is known to influence oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) risk, likely via sexual transmission. However, sexual behaviour has been correlated with other risk factors including smoking and alcohol, meaning independent effects are difficult to establish. We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of sexual behaviour on the risk of OPC using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Genetic variants robustly associated with age at first sex (AFS) and the number of sexual partners (NSP) were used to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses with summary data on 2641 OPC cases and 6585 controls, obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Given the potential for genetic pleiotropy, we performed a number of sensitivity analyses: (i) MR methods to account for horizontal pleiotropy, (ii) MR of sexual behaviours on positive (cervical cancer and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis) and negative control outcomes (lung and oral cancer), (iii) Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), to account for correlated and uncorrelated horizontal pleiotropic effects, (iv) multivariable MR analysis to account for the effects of smoking, alcohol, risk tolerance and educational attainment. RESULTS: In univariable MR, we found evidence supportive of an effect of both later AFS (IVW OR = 0.4, 95%CI (0.3, 0.7), per standard deviation (SD), p = < 0.001) and increasing NSP (IVW OR = 2.2, 95%CI (1.3, 3.8) per SD, p = < 0.001) on OPC risk. These effects were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy. However, negative control analysis suggested potential violation of the core MR assumptions and subsequent CAUSE analysis implicated pleiotropy of the genetic instruments used to proxy sexual behaviours. Finally, there was some attenuation of the univariable MR results in the multivariable models (AFS IVW OR = 0.7, 95%CI (0.4, 1.2), p = 0.21; NSP IVW OR = 0.9, 95%CI (0.5 1.7), p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using genetic variants strongly related sexual behaviour traits in large-scale GWAS, we found evidence for correlated pleiotropy. This emphasizes a need for multivariable approaches and the triangulation of evidence when performing MR of complex behavioural traits.

Validation of a gene expression signature for assessment of lymph node metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Current assessment of lymph node metastasis in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma is not accurate enough to prevent overtreatment. The aim of this study was validation of a gene expression signature for distinguishing metastasizing (N+) from nonmetastasizing (N0) squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity (OSCC) and oropharynx (OPSCC) in a large multicenter cohort, using a diagnostic DNA microarray in a Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments/International Organization for Standardization-approved laboratory. METHODS: A multigene signature, previously reported as predictive for the presence of lymph node metastases in OSCC and OPSCC, was first re-evaluated and trained on 94 samples using generic, whole-genome, DNA microarrays. Signature genes were then transferred to a dedicated diagnostic microarray using the same technology platform. Additional samples (n=222) were collected from all head and neck oncologic centers in the Netherlands and analyzed with the diagnostic microarray. Human papillomavirus status was determined by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The negative predictive value (NPV) of the diagnostic signature on the entire validation cohort (n=222) was 72%. The signature performed well on the most relevant subset of early-stage (cT1-T2N0) OSCC (n=101), with an NPV of 89%. CONCLUSION: Combining current clinical assessment with the expression signature would decrease the rate of undetected nodal metastases from 28% to 11% in early-stage OSCC. This should be sufficient to enable clinicians to refrain from elective neck treatment. A new clinical decision model that incorporates the expression signature is therefore proposed for testing in a prospective study, which could substantially improve treatment for this group of patients.