Forty-year study of rates of homicide by people with schizophrenia and other homicides in the Chuvash Republic of the Russian Federation.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which rates of homicide by people with or without schizophrenia vary over time has theoretical and practical implications in understanding homicide by people with mental illness. AIMS: The aim was to report on the rates of homicide by people diagnosed with schizophrenia over time in a region in which there were dramatic changes in the overall rates of homicide. METHODS: An examination of homicide by people diagnosed with schizophrenia in the course of judicial psychiatric examination, and the rate of other homicide in the Chuvash Republic of the Russian Federation between 1981 and 2020 was undertaken. RESULTS: During the 40 years of the study a total of 5741 people faced legal proceedings for a homicide offence, of whom 179 (3.1%) were diagnosed with schizophrenia. During the study period the average annual total homicide rate rose from about 9 per 100 000 in the 1980s, peaked at 17 per 100 000 in the 1990s before falling to 13 per 100 000 in the 2000s and 6 per 100 000 in the 2010s. Rates of homicide by people with schizophrenia also rose and fell over this period and were significantly associated with the rates of other homicide (r = 0.503, d.f. = 38, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The rise and fall in rates of homicide by people diagnosed with schizophrenia in parallel to total homicide suggests that homicidal behaviour might not be intrinsic to the clinical manifestations of the illness, and might instead reflect a heightened vulnerability to social factors that are associated with homicide by people without schizophrenia.

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns in suicide risk assessment: evidence from meta-analyses of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

Suicide risk assessment aims to reduce uncertainty in order to focus treatment and supervision on those who are judged to be more likely to die by suicide. In this article we consider recent meta-analytic research that highlights the difference between uncertainty about suicide due to chance factors (aleatory uncertainty) and uncertainty that results from lack of knowledge (epistemic uncertainty). We conclude that much of the uncertainty about suicide is aleatory rather than epistemic, and discuss the implications for clinicians.

Pokorny's complaint: the insoluble problem of the overwhelming number of false positives generated by suicide risk assessment.

Alex Pokorny's 1983 prospective study of suicide found that 96.3% of high-risk predictions were false positives, and that more than half of the suicides occurred in the low-risk group and were hence false negatives. All subsequent prospective studies, including the recent US Army Study To Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS), have reported similar results. We argue that since risk assessment cannot be a practical basis for interventions aimed at reducing suicide, the alternative is for mental health services to carefully consider what amounts to an adequate standard of care, and to adopt the universal precaution of attempting to provide that to all of our patients.

Australia's economic transition, unemployment, suicide and mental health needs.

OBJECTIVE: There have been substantial changes in workforce and employment patterns in Australia over the past 50 years as a result of economic globalisation. This has resulted in substantial reduction in employment in the manufacturing industry often with large-scale job losses in concentrated sectors and communities. Large-scale job loss events receive significant community attention. To what extent these mass unemployment events contribute to increased psychological distress, mental illness and suicide in affected individuals warrants further consideration. METHODS: Here we undertake a narrative review of published job loss literature. We discuss the impact that large-scale job loss events in the manufacturing sector may have on population mental health, with particular reference to contemporary trends in the Australian economy. We also provide a commentary on the expected outcomes of future job loss events in this context and the implications for Australian public mental health care services. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Job loss due to plant closure results in a doubling of psychological distress that peaks 9 months following the unemployment event. The link between job loss and increased rates of mental illness and suicide is less clear. The threat of impending job loss and the social context in which job loss occurs has a significant bearing on psychological outcomes. The implications for Australian public mental health services are discussed.

Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Cohort Studies of Suicide Risk Assessment among Psychiatric Patients: Heterogeneity in Results and Lack of Improvement over Time.

OBJECTIVE: It is widely assumed that the clinical care of psychiatric patients can be guided by estimates of suicide risk and by using patient characteristics to define a group of high-risk patients. However, the statistical strength and reliability of suicide risk categorization is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the odds of suicide in high-risk compared to lower-risk categories and the suicide rates in high-risk and lower-risk groups. METHOD: We located longitudinal cohort studies where psychiatric patients or people who had made suicide attempts were stratified into high-risk and lower-risk groups for suicide with suicide mortality as the outcome by searching for peer reviewed publications indexed in PubMed or PsychINFO. Electronic searches were supplemented by hand searching of included studies and relevant review articles. Two authors independently extracted data regarding effect size, study population and study design from 53 samples of risk-assessed patients reported in 37 studies. RESULTS: The pooled odds of suicide among high-risk patients compared to lower-risk patients calculated by random effects meta-analysis was of 4.84 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.79-6.20). Between-study heterogeneity was very high (I2 = 93.3). There was no evidence that more recent studies had greater statistical strength than older studies. Over an average follow up period of 63 months the proportion of suicides among the high-risk patients was 5.5% and was 0.9% among lower-risk patients. The meta-analytically derived sensitivity and specificity of a high-risk categorization were 56% and 79% respectively. There was evidence of publication bias in favour of studies that inflated the pooled odds of suicide in high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of suicide risk categorizations based on the presence of multiple risk factors does not greatly exceed the association between individual suicide risk factors and suicide. A statistically strong and reliable method to usefully distinguish patients with a high-risk of suicide remains elusive.

La práctica de la evaluación del riesgo de violencia en España / The practice of violence risk assessment in Spain

Antecedentes. La valoración del riesgo de violencia es un requisito fundamental en la toma de decisiones profesionales que implican prevenir, intervenir o informar sobre la conducta de las personas. El uso de herramientas estructuradas de evaluación del riesgo de violencia ha mostrado mejoría en la precisión de las evaluaciones basadas exclusivamente en el juicio clínico o en la pericia de un experto en contextos psiquiátricos, penitenciarios y jurídicos. Objetivo. Este estudio presenta los resultados de la primera encuesta sobre las prácticas profesionales asociadas al uso de herramientas de evaluación del riesgo de violencia en España. Materiales y métodos. La información fue recogida mediante la administración de una encuesta en internet que fue distribuida por correo electrónico a los miembros de organizaciones profesionales. Resultados. De manera similar a los contextos profesionales del resto del mundo, las escalas de psicopatía de Robert Hare (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised y Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version) y el Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 encabezaron la lista de las herramientas más usadas tanto por elección personal como por requisito institucional. Conclusiones. Se ofrecen datos novedosos sobre la prevalencia de uso y la utilidad percibida de las herramientas estructuradas, así como sobre otras cuestiones relacionadas a las prácticas profesionales de evaluación del riesgo de violencia en España que pueden orientar tanto a los profesionales de contextos sanitarios, correccionales y forenses, como a los responsables de las instituciones en la elección de las herramientas a implementar para asistirlos en la toma de decisiones.

Background. Violence risk assessment is a key requirement in professional decision making involving prevention, intervention or reporting on human behavior. The use of structured tools for violence risk assessment has shown to improve the accuracy of assessments based exclusively on clinical judgment or expertise in psychiatric, correctional and legal settings. Objectives. This study presents results of the first survey about professional practices associated with tools for violence risk assessment in Spain. Materials and methods. The information was collected by administering an online-based survey that was distributed by e-mail to members of professional organizations around the country. Results. As in professional contexts worldwide, the Robert Hare's psychopathy scales (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version) and the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 topped the list of the most used tools both by professional choice and institutional requirement. Conclusions. We provide novel data on the prevalence of use and the perceived utility of specific tools, as well as on other issues related to the professional practice of violence risk assessment in Spain, which can guide professional in the health care, correctional and forensic settings, as well as those responsible for decisions in institutions about choosing which tool to implement.