Data Sources for Understanding the Social Determinants of Health: Examples from Two Middle-Income Countries: the 3-D Commission.

The expansion in the scope, scale, and sources of data on the wider social determinants of health (SDH) in the last decades could bridge gaps in information available for decision-making. However, challenges remain in making data widely available, accessible, and useful towards improving population health. While traditional, government-supported data sources and comparable data are most often used to characterize social determinants, there are still capacity and management constraints on data availability and use. Conversely, privately held data may not be shared. This study reviews and discusses the nature, sources, and uses of data on SDH, with illustrations from two middle-income countries: Kenya and the Philippines. The review highlights opportunities presented by new data sources, including the use of big data technologies, to capture data on social determinants that can be useful to inform population health. We conducted a search between October 2010 and September 2020 for grey and scientific publications on social determinants using a search strategy in PubMed and a manual snowball search. We assessed data sources and the data environment in both Kenya and the Philippines. We found limited evidence of the use of new sources of data to study the wider SDH, as most of the studies available used traditional sources. There was also no evidence of qualitative big data being used. Kenya has more publications using new data sources, except on the labor determinant, than the Philippines. The Philippines has a more consistent distribution of the use of new data sources across the HEALTHY determinants than Kenya, where there is greater variation of the number of publications across determinants. The results suggest that both countries use limited SDH data from new data sources. This limited use could be due to a number of factors including the absence of standardized indicators of SDH, inadequate trust and acceptability of data collection methods, and limited infrastructure to pool, analyze, and translate data.

Use of Data to Understand the Social Determinants of Depression in Two Middle-Income Countries: the 3-D Commission.

Depression accounts for a large share of the global disease burden, with an estimated 264 million people globally suffering from depression. Despite being one of the most common kinds of mental health (MH) disorders, much about depression remains unknown. There are limited data about depression, in terms of its occurrence, distribution, and wider social determinants. This work examined the use of novel data sources for assessing the scope and social determinants of depression, with a view to informing the reduction of the global burden of depression.This study focused on new and traditional sources of data on depression and its social determinants in two middle-income countries (LMICs), namely, Brazil and India. We identified data sources using a combination of a targeted PubMed search, Google search, expert consultations, and snowball sampling of the relevant literature published between October 2010 and September 2020. Our search focused on data sources on the following HEALTHY subset of determinants: healthcare (H), education (E), access to healthy choices (A), labor/employment (L), transportation (T), housing (H), and income (Y).Despite the emergence of a variety of data sources, their use in the study of depression and its HEALTHY determinants in India and Brazil are still limited. Survey-based data are still the most widely used source. In instances where new data sources are used, the most commonly used data sources include social media (twitter data in particular), geographic information systems/global positioning systems (GIS/GPS), mobile phone, and satellite imagery. Often, the new data sources are used in conjunction with traditional sources of data. In Brazil, the limited use of new data sources to study depression and its HEALTHY determinants may be linked to (a) the government's outsized role in coordinating healthcare delivery and controlling the data system, thus limiting innovation that may be expected from the private sector; (b) the government routinely collecting data on depression and other MH disorders (and therefore, does not see the need for other data sources); and (c) insufficient prioritization of MH as a whole. In India, the limited use of new data sources to study depression and its HEALTHY determinants could be a function of (a) the lack of appropriate regulation and incentives to encourage data sharing by and within the private sector, (b) absence of purposeful data collection at subnational levels, and (c) inadequate prioritization of MH. There is a continuing gap in the collection and analysis of data on depression, possibly reflecting the limited priority accorded to mental health as a whole. The relatively limited use of data to inform our understanding of the HEALTHY determinants of depression suggests a substantial need for support of independent research using new data sources. Finally, there is a need to revisit the universal health coverage (UHC) frameworks, as these frameworks currently do not include depression and other mental health-related indicators so as to enable tracking of progress (or lack thereof) on such indicators.

Assessing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy, Confidence, and Public Engagement: A Global Social Listening Study.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring public confidence and hesitancy is crucial for the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Social media listening (infoveillance) can not only monitor public attitudes on COVID-19 vaccines but also assess the dissemination of and public engagement with these opinions. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess global hesitancy, confidence, and public engagement toward COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We collected posts mentioning the COVID-19 vaccine between June and July 2020 on Twitter from New York (United States), London (United Kingdom), Mumbai (India), and Sao Paulo (Brazil), and Sina Weibo posts from Beijing (China). In total, we manually coded 12,886 posts from the five global metropolises with high COVID-19 burdens, and after assessment, 7032 posts were included in the analysis. We manually double-coded these posts using a coding framework developed according to the World Health Organization's Confidence, Complacency, and Convenience model of vaccine hesitancy, and conducted engagement analysis to investigate public communication about COVID-19 vaccines on social media. RESULTS: Among social media users, 36.4% (571/1568) in New York, 51.3% (738/1440) in London, 67.3% (144/214) in Sao Paulo, 69.8% (726/1040) in Mumbai, and 76.8% (2128/2770) in Beijing indicated that they intended to accept a COVID-19 vaccination. With a high perceived risk of getting COVID-19, more tweeters in New York and London expressed a lack of confidence in vaccine safety, distrust in governments and experts, and widespread misinformation or rumors. Tweeters from Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Beijing worried more about vaccine production and supply, whereas tweeters from New York and London had more concerns about vaccine distribution and inequity. Negative tweets expressing lack of vaccine confidence and misinformation or rumors had more followers and attracted more public engagement online. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is prevalent worldwide, and negative tweets attract higher engagement on social media. It is urgent to develop an effective vaccine campaign that boosts public confidence and addresses hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccine rollouts.

Challenges in ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines: production, affordability, allocation, and deployment.

The COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to end until there is global roll-out of vaccines that protect against severe disease and preferably drive herd immunity. Regulators in numerous countries have authorised or approved COVID-19 vaccines for human use, with more expected to be licensed in 2021. Yet having licensed vaccines is not enough to achieve global control of COVID-19: they also need to be produced at scale, priced affordably, allocated globally so that they are available where needed, and widely deployed in local communities. In this Health Policy paper, we review potential challenges to success in each of these dimensions and discuss policy implications. To guide our review, we developed a dashboard to highlight key characteristics of 26 leading vaccine candidates, including efficacy levels, dosing regimens, storage requirements, prices, production capacities in 2021, and stocks reserved for low-income and middle-income countries. We use a traffic-light system to signal the potential contributions of each candidate to achieving global vaccine immunity, highlighting important trade-offs that policy makers need to consider when developing and implementing vaccination programmes. Although specific datapoints are subject to change as the pandemic response progresses, the dashboard will continue to provide a useful lens through which to analyse the key issues affecting the use of COVID-19 vaccines. We also present original data from a 32-country survey (n=26 758) on potential acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted from October to December, 2020. Vaccine acceptance was highest in Vietnam (98%), India (91%), China (91%), Denmark (87%), and South Korea (87%), and lowest in Serbia (38%), Croatia (41%), France (44%), Lebanon (44%), and Paraguay (51%).

COVID-SCORE: A global survey to assess public perceptions of government responses to COVID-19 (COVID-SCORE-10).

BACKGROUND: Understanding public perceptions of government responses to COVID-19 may foster improved public cooperation. Trust in government and population risk of exposure may influence public perception of the response. Other population-level characteristics, such as country socio-economic development, COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, and degree of democratic government, may influence perception. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a novel ten-item instrument that asks respondents to rate key aspects of their government's response to the pandemic (COVID-SCORE). We examined whether the results varied by gender, age group, education level, and monthly income. We also examined the internal and external validity of the index using appropriate predefined variables. To test for dimensionality of the results, we used a principal component analysis (PCA) for the ten survey items. We found that Cronbach's alpha was 0.92 and that the first component of the PCA explained 60% of variance with the remaining factors having eigenvalues below 1, strongly indicating that the tool is both reliable and unidimensional. Based on responses from 13,426 people randomly selected from the general population in 19 countries, the mean national scores ranged from 35.76 (Ecuador) to 80.48 (China) out of a maximum of 100 points. Heterogeneity in responses was observed across age, gender, education and income with the greatest amount of heterogeneity observed between countries. National scores correlated with respondents' reported levels of trust in government and with country-level COVID-19 mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-SCORE survey instrument demonstrated satisfactory validity. It may help governments more effectively engage constituents in current and future efforts to control COVID-19. Additional country-specific assessment should be undertaken to measure trends over time and the public perceptions of key aspects of government responses in other countries.

Factors that influence vaccination decision-making among pregnant women: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The most important factor influencing maternal vaccination uptake is healthcare professional (HCP) recommendation. However, where data are available, one-third of pregnant women remain unvaccinated despite receiving a recommendation. Therefore, it is essential to understand the significance of other factors and distinguish between vaccines administered routinely and during outbreaks. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD 42019118299) to examine the strength of the relationships between identified factors and maternal vaccination uptake. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase Classic & Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, Web of Science, IBSS, LILACS, AfricaWideInfo, IMEMR, and Global Health databases for studies reporting factors that influence maternal vaccination. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) of being vaccinated by vaccine type. FINDINGS: We screened 17,236 articles and identified 120 studies from 30 countries for inclusion. Of these, 49 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The odds of receiving a pertussis or influenza vaccination were ten to twelve-times higher among pregnant women who received a recommendation from HCPs. During the 2009 influenza pandemic an HCP recommendation increased the odds of antenatal H1N1 vaccine uptake six times (OR 6.76, 95% CI 3.12-14.64, I2 = 92.00%). Believing there was potential for vaccine-induced harm had a negative influence on seasonal (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.11-0.44 I2 = 84.00%) and pandemic influenza vaccine uptake (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.09-0.29, I2 = 89.48%), reducing the odds of being vaccinated five-fold. Combined with our qualitative analysis the relationship between the belief in substantial disease risk and maternal seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination uptake was limited. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of an HCP recommendation during an outbreak, whilst still powerful, may be muted by other factors. This requires further research, particularly when vaccines are novel. Public health campaigns which centre on the protectiveness and safety of a maternal vaccine rather than disease threat alone may prove beneficial.

Taking stock of vaccine hesitancy among migrants: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: At the 72nd World Health Assembly of May 2019, WHO member states prioritised a global action plan to promote migrant and refugee health. Five months earlier, WHO had declared vaccine hesitancy-the reluctance to vaccinate despite the availability of vaccination services-as one of the top 10 threats to global health. Although vaccination is often a requirement for immigration, repeated outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases within certain immigrant communities in some host nations suggest that vaccine hesitancy could be a factor in their susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases. Studies of the prevalence and determinants of vaccine hesitancy among migrants globally seem to be lacking. This scoping review will (1) identify articles on vaccine hesitancy among migrants; (2) examine the extent and nature of the extant evidence; and (3) determine the value of undertaking a full systematic review. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The framework for the scoping review proposed by the Joanna Briggs Institute will be used. The reporting will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist. Studies published in English or French between January 1999 and December 2019 will be drawn from most or all of the following multidisciplinary databases: Africa-Wide Information, Allied and Complementary Medicine, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Embase, Index Medicus for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Literature in the Health Sciences in Latin America and the Caribbean, Medline, Proquest Theses/Dissertations, PsycInfo and Web of Science. The search will include an extensive list of keywords to capture multiple dimensions of confidence and hesitancy vis-à-vis vaccines among migrants. Findings will be reported through summary narratives, tables, flowcharts and evidence maps. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This review is exempted from ethical approval and will be published in a peer-reviewed open-access journal to ensure wide dissemination.

Immunization: vital progress, unfinished agenda.

Vaccination against infectious diseases has changed the future of the human species, saving millions of lives every year, both children and adults, and providing major benefits to society as a whole. Here we show, however, that national and sub-national coverage of vaccination varies greatly and major unmet needs persist. Although scientific progress opens exciting perspectives in terms of new vaccines, the pathway from discovery to sustainable implementation can be long and difficult, from the financing, development and licensing to programme implementation and public acceptance. Immunization is one of the best investments in health and should remain a priority for research, industry, public health and society.

Toward Control? The Prospects and Challenges of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

With a newly World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV), Gavi funding for eligible countries, and a WHO policy recommendation for TCV use, now is the time for countries to introduce TCVs as part of an integrated typhoid control program, particularly in light of the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Continued vaccine development efforts will lead to secure supply of low-cost vaccines, and ongoing vaccine studies will provide critical vaccine performance data and inform optimal deployment strategies, in both routine use and in outbreak settings. TCV programs should include thoughtful communication planning and community engagement to counter vaccine hesitancy.

Changes in health in the countries of the UK and 150 English Local Authority areas 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported national and regional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for the UK. Because of substantial variation in health within the UK, action to improve it requires comparable estimates of disease burden and risks at country and local levels. The slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy requires further investigation. We use GBD 2016 data on mortality, causes of death, and disability to analyse the burden of disease in the countries of the UK and within local authorities in England by deprivation quintile. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2016 to estimate years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and attributable risks from 1990 to 2016 for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the UK, and 150 English Upper-Tier Local Authorities. We estimated the burden of disease by cause of death, condition, year, and sex. We analysed the association between burden of disease and socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We present results for all 264 GBD causes of death combined and the leading 20 specific causes, and all 84 GBD risks or risk clusters combined and 17 specific risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-adjusted YLLs in all UK countries in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, lung cancers, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age-standardised rates of YLLs for all causes varied by two times between local areas in England according to levels of socioeconomic deprivation (from 14 274 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval 12 791-15 875] in Blackpool to 6888 [6145-7739] in Wokingham). Some Upper-Tier Local Authorities, particularly those in London, did better than expected for their level of deprivation. Allowing for differences in age structure, more deprived Upper-Tier Local Authorities had higher attributable YLLs for most major risk factors in the GBD. The population attributable fractions for all-cause YLLs for individual major risk factors varied across Upper-Tier Local Authorities. Life expectancy and YLLs have improved more slowly since 2010 in all UK countries compared with 1990-2010. In nine of 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities, YLLs increased after 2010. For attributable YLLs, the rate of improvement slowed most substantially for cardiovascular disease and breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, and showed little change for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Morbidity makes an increasing contribution to overall burden in the UK compared with mortality. The age-standardised UK DALY rate for low back and neck pain (1795 [1258-2356]) was higher than for ischaemic heart disease (1200 [1155-1246]) or lung cancer (660 [642-679]). The leading causes of ill health (measured through YLDs) in the UK in 2016 were low back and neck pain, skin and subcutaneous diseases, migraine, depressive disorders, and sense organ disease. Age-standardised YLD rates varied much less than equivalent YLL rates across the UK, which reflects the relative scarcity of local data on causes of ill health. INTERPRETATION: These estimates at local, regional, and national level will allow policy makers to match resources and priorities to levels of burden and risk factors. Improvement in YLLs and life expectancy slowed notably after 2010, particularly in cardiovascular disease and cancer, and targeted actions are needed if the rate of improvement is to recover. A targeted policy response is also required to address the increasing proportion of burden due to morbidity, such as musculoskeletal problems and depression. Improving the quality and completeness of available data on these causes is an essential component of this response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

'We All Work Together to Vaccinate the Child': A Formative Evaluation of a Community-Engagement Strategy Aimed at Closing the Immunization Gap in North-West Ethiopia.

The role of community engagement (CE) in improving demand for immunization merits investigation. The International Rescue Committee developed a CE strategy to implement a vaccine defaulter-tracing tool and a color-coded health calendar aimed at increasing uptake of immunization services in north-west Ethiopia ('The Fifth Child Project'). We report findings from a formative evaluation of this project. In May/June 2016 we conducted 18 participant observations of project activities, 46 semi-structured interviews and 6 focus groups with caregivers, health workers, community members/leaders. Audio-recordings and fieldnotes were transcribed, anonymized, translated and analyzed thematically using inductive and deductive coding. Additional data was collected in November 2016 to verify findings. The project was suitably integrated within the health extension program and established a practical system for defaulter-tracing. The calendar facilitated personalized interactions between health workers and caregivers and was a catalyst for health discussions within homes. At the community level, a regulation exercise of sanctions was observed, which served as a deterrent against vaccine default. Pre-existing community accountability mechanisms supported the CE, although varying levels of engagement between leaders and health workers were observed. The benefits of shared responsibility for immunization were evident; however, more transparency was required about community self-regulatory measures to ensure health-related discussions remain positive.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

The State of Vaccine Confidence 2016: Global Insights Through a 67-Country Survey.

BACKGROUND: Public trust in immunization is an increasingly important global health issue. Losses in confidence in vaccines and immunization programmes can lead to vaccine reluctance and refusal, risking disease outbreaks and challenging immunization goals in high- and low-income settings. National and international immunization stakeholders have called for better monitoring of vaccine confidence to identify emerging concerns before they evolve into vaccine confidence crises. METHODS: We perform a large-scale, data-driven study on worldwide attitudes to immunizations. This survey - which we believe represents the largest survey on confidence in immunization to date - examines perceptions of vaccine importance, safety, effectiveness, and religious compatibility among 65,819 individuals across 67 countries. Hierarchical models are employed to probe relationships between individual- and country-level socio-economic factors and vaccine attitudes obtained through the four-question, Likert-scale survey. FINDINGS: Overall sentiment towards vaccinations is positive across all 67 countries, however there is wide variability between countries and across world regions. Vaccine-safety related sentiment is particularly negative in the European region, which has seven of the ten least confident countries, with 41% of respondents in France and 36% of respondents in Bosnia & Herzegovina reporting that they disagree that vaccines are safe (compared to a global average of 13%). The oldest age group (65+) and Roman Catholics (amongst all faiths surveyed) are associated with positive views on vaccine sentiment, while the Western Pacific region reported the highest level of religious incompatibility with vaccines. Countries with high levels of schooling and good access to health services are associated with lower rates of positive sentiment, pointing to an emerging inverse relationship between vaccine sentiments and socio-economic status. CONCLUSIONS: Regular monitoring of vaccine attitudes - coupled with monitoring of local immunization rates - at the national and sub-national levels can identify populations with declining confidence and acceptance. These populations should be prioritized to further investigate the drivers of negative sentiment and to inform appropriate interventions to prevent adverse public health outcomes.

Forecasted trends in vaccination coverage and correlations with socioeconomic factors: a global time-series analysis over 30 years.

BACKGROUND: Incomplete immunisation coverage causes preventable illness and death in both developing and developed countries. Identification of factors that might modulate coverage could inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. We constructed a performance indicator that could quantitatively approximate measures of the susceptibility of immunisation programmes to coverage losses, with an aim to identify correlations between trends in vaccine coverage and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We undertook a data-driven time-series analysis to examine trends in coverage of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination across 190 countries over the past 30 years. We grouped countries into six world regions according to WHO classifications. We used Gaussian process regression to forecast future coverage rates and provide a vaccine performance index: a summary measure of the strength of immunisation coverage in a country. FINDINGS: Overall vaccine coverage increased in all six world regions between 1980 and 2010, with variation in volatility and trends. Our vaccine performance index identified that 53 countries had more than a 50% chance of missing the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) target of 90% worldwide coverage with three doses of DTP (DTP3) by 2015. These countries were mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, but Austria and Ukraine also featured. Factors associated with DTP3 immunisation coverage varied by world region: personal income (Spearman's ρ=0·66, p=0·0011) and government health spending (0·66, p<0·0001) were informative of immunisation coverage in the Eastern Mediterranean between 1980 and 2010, whereas primary school completion was informative of coverage in Africa (0·56, p<0·0001) over the same period. The proportion of births attended by skilled health staff correlated significantly with immunisation coverage across many world regions. INTERPRETATION: Our vaccine performance index highlighted countries at risk of failing to achieve the GVAP target of 90% coverage by 2015, and could aid policy makers' assessments of the strength and resilience of immunisation programmes. Weakening correlations with socioeconomic factors show a need to tackle vaccine confidence, whereas strengthening correlations point to clear factors to address. FUNDING: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Digitised audio questionnaire for assessment of informed consent comprehension in a low-literacy African research population: development and psychometric evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and psychometrically evaluate an audio digitised tool for assessment of comprehension of informed consent among low-literacy Gambian research participants. SETTING: We conducted this study in the Gambia where a high illiteracy rate and absence of standardised writing formats of local languages pose major challenges for research participants to comprehend consent information. We developed a 34-item questionnaire to assess participants' comprehension of key elements of informed consent. The questionnaire was face validated and content validated by experienced researchers. To bypass the challenge of a lack of standardised writing formats, we audiorecorded the questionnaire in three major Gambian languages: Mandinka, Wolof and Fula. The questionnaire was further developed into an audio computer-assisted interview format. PARTICIPANTS: The digitised questionnaire was administered to 250 participants enrolled in two clinical trials in the urban and rural areas of the Gambia. One week after first administration, the questionnaire was readministered to half of the participants who were randomly selected. Participants were eligible if enrolled in the parent trials and could speak any of the three major Gambian languages. OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome measure was reliability and validity of the questionnaire. RESULTS: Item reduction by factor analysis showed that 21 of the question items have strong factor loadings. These were retained along with five other items which were fundamental components of informed consent. The 26-item questionnaire has high internal consistency with a Cronbach's α of 0.73-0.79 and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% CI 0.923 to 0.954). Hypotheses testing also showed that the questionnaire has a positive correlation with a similar questionnaire and discriminates between participants with and without education. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a reliable and valid measure of comprehension of informed consent information for the Gambian context, which might be easily adapted to similar settings. This is a major step towards engendering comprehension of informed consent information among low-literacy participants.

Redesigning the AIDS response for long-term impact.

Three decades since the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was identified, the pandemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has developed into diverse epidemics around the world. In many populations, HIV infection has become endemic. While there is good progress on expanding access to treatment, with an estimated 6.6 million people on antiretroviral therapy at the end of 2010, prevention efforts are still highly inadequate with 2.6 million new infections occurring in 2009. Demand for treatment is increasing while funding is becoming more scarce and activism is waning. In 2007, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) established an independent forum called aids2031 to take a critical look at the global HIV/AIDS response. This paper outlines four key areas for a re-designed AIDS response based on the deliberations of this initiative and on the learning and experience of the first three decades of the epidemic: (i) a new culture of knowledge generation and utilization; (ii) transformed prevention and treatment to increase effectiveness; (iii) increased efficiency through better management and maximizing synergies with other programmes; and (iv) investment for the long term. Across all these areas is a strong emphasis on local capacity building, leadership, programme priorities and budgets.