Global burden of young-onset gastric cancer: a systematic trend analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: While gastric cancer is generally declining globally, the temporal trend of young-onset (< 40 years) gastric cancer remains uncertain. We performed this analysis to determine the temporal trends of young-onset gastric cancer compared to late-onset cancer (≥ 40 years). METHODS: We extracted cross-sectional data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2019 was assessed through indicators including incidence and mortality rates, which were classified at global, national, and regional levels, and according to socio-demographic indexes (SDI) and age or sex groups. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify specific years with significant changes. The correlation between AAPC with countries' average SDI was tested by Pearson's Test. RESULTS: The global incidence rate of young-onset gastric cancer decreased from 2.20 (per 100,000) in 1990 to 1.65 in 2019 (AAPC: - 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] - 1.25 to - 0.65; P < 0.001). Late-onset cancer incidence also decreased from 59.53 (per 100,000) in 1990 to 41.26 in 2019 (AAPC: - 1.23; 95% CI - 1.39 to - 1.06, P < 0.001). Despite an overall decreasing trend, the incidence rate of young-onset cancer demonstrated a significant increase from 2015 to 2019 (annual percentage change [APC]: 1.39; 95% CI 0.06 to 2.74; P = 0.041), whereas no upward trend was observed in late-onset cancer. Mortality rates of young- and late-onset cancer both exhibited a significant decline during this period (AAPC: - 1.82; 95% CI - 2.15 to - 1.56; P < 0.001 and AAPC: - 1.69, 95% CI - 1.79 to - 1.59; P < 0.001). The male-to-female rate ratio for incidence and mortality in both age groups have been increasing since 1990. While countries with high SDI have had a greater decline in the incidence of late-onset gastric cancer (slope of AAPC change: - 0.20, P = 0.004), it was not observed in young-onset cancer (slope of AAPC change: - 0.11, P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: The global incidence and mortality rates of both young- and late-onset gastric cancer have decreased since 1990. However, the incidence rate of young-onset cancer has demonstrated a small but significant upward trend since 2015. There was disparity in the decline in young-onset gastric cancer among male and high SDI countries. These findings could help to inform future strategies in preventing gastric cancer in younger individuals.

Prevalence of Enteric Infections in Patients on Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors and Impact on Management and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Stool pathogen testing is recommended as part of the initial evaluation for patients with new-onset diarrhea on immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), yet its significance has not been well-studied. We aimed to determine the impact of multiplex gastrointestinal (GI) pathogen PCR testing on the clinical course and use of immunosuppressive therapy in patients who develop diarrhea on ICIs. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included individuals who underwent GI pathogen panel PCR for diarrhea on ICIs at Memorial Sloan Kettering between 7/2015 and 7/2021. The primary outcome was use of immunosuppressive therapy for suspected immunotherapy-related enterocolitis (irEC). Secondary outcomes included diarrhea severity and endoscopic and histologic disease patterns. RESULTS: Among 521 ICI-treated patients tested for GI pathogens, 61 (11.7%) had a positive PCR. Compared to patients without detectable infections, patients with infections had more frequent grades 3-4 diarrhea (37.7% vs. 19.6%, P < .01) and colitis (39.3% vs. 14.7%, P < .01). However, patients with infections did not have higher rates of persistent or recurrent diarrhea and were less likely to receive steroids (P < .01) and second-line immunosuppressive agents (P = .03). In 105 patients with lower endoscopy, similar trends were observed and no differences in endoscopic severity or histologic patterns were noted between groups. CONCLUSIONS: GI infections in ICI-treated patients presenting with diarrhea are linked to more severe but self-limited clinical presentations and may be optimally treated with observation and supportive care alone. Routine and timely stool pathogen testing may help avert unnecessary empiric immunosuppression for suspected irEC, which has been linked to blunted antitumor responses and numerous adverse effects.

Cost-effectiveness of prevention and early detection of gastric cancer in Western countries.

Gastric cancer (GC) is a significant global health problem, with Helicobacter pylori infection estimated to be responsible for 89% of non-cardiac GC cases, or 78% of all GC cases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has called for Helicobacter pylori test-and-treat strategies in countries with high rates of GC. However, for countries with low rates of GC, such as most Western countries, the balance between benefits, harms and costs of screening is less clear-cut. GC is a disease with a well-characterized precancerous process, providing the basis for primary and secondary prevention efforts. However, rigorous data assessing the impact of such interventions in Western countries are lacking. In the absence of clinical trials, modelling offers a unique approach to evaluate the potential impact of various screening and surveillance interventions. In this paper, we provide an overview of modelling studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of GC screening and surveillance in Western countries.

Gene-Specific Variation in Colorectal Cancer Surveillance Strategies for Lynch Syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Lynch syndrome is associated with pathogenic variants in 4 mismatch repair (MMR) genes that increase lifetime risk of colorectal cancer. Guidelines recommend intensive colorectal cancer surveillance with colonoscopy every 1-2 years starting at age 25 years for all carriers of Lynch syndrome-associated variants, regardless of gene product. We constructed a simulation model to analyze the effects of different ages of colonoscopy initiation and surveillance intervals for each MMR gene (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2) on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, quality-adjusted life-years, and cost. METHODS: Using published literature, we developed a Markov simulation model of Lynch syndrome progression for patients with each MMR variant. The model simulated clinical trials of Lynch syndrome carriers, varying age of colonoscopy initiation (5-year increments from 25-40 years), and surveillance intervals (1-5 years). We assessed the optimal strategy for each gene, defined as the strategy with the highest quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below a $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. RESULTS: Optimal surveillance for patients with pathogenic variants in the MLH1 and MSH2 genes was colonoscopy starting at age 25 years, with 1- to 2-year surveillance intervals. Initiating colonoscopy at age 35 and 40 years, with 3-year intervals, was cost-effective for patients with pathogenic variants in MSH6 or PMS2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simulation model to select optimal surveillance starting ages and intervals for patients with Lynch syndrome based on MMR variant. The model supports recommendations for intensive surveillance of patients with Lynch syndrome-associated variants in MLH1 or MSH2. However, for patients with Lynch syndrome-associated variants of MSH6 or PMS2, later initiation of surveillance at 35 and 40 years, respectively, and at 3-year intervals, can be considered.

Low sodium diet for gastric cancer prevention in the United States: Results of a Markov model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High sodium consumption has been associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. The mean daily sodium intake in the United States substantially exceeds the national recommended amount. The low sodium-DASH diet has been shown to decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease in the United States, but its impact on gastric cancer has not been well studied. We therefore aimed to model the impact and cost-effectiveness of the low sodium-DASH diet for gastric cancer prevention in the U.S. METHODS: A Markov cohort state-transition model was developed to simulate the impact of the low sodium-DASH diet on gastric cancer outcomes for the average 40-year-old in the United States compared to no intervention. Primary outcomes of interest were gastric cancer incidence and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). RESULTS: Our model found that compared to the no intervention cohort, the risk of gastric cancer decreased by 24.8% for males and 21.2% for females on the low sodium-DASH diet. 27 cases and 14 cases per 10,000 individuals were prevented for males and females, respectively, in the intervention group. The ICER for the low sodium-DASH diet strategy was $287,726 for males and $423,878 for females compared to the no intervention strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Using a Markov model of gastric cancer risk, we found that adherence to a low sodium-DASH diet could decrease the risk of gastric cancer. This intervention was not cost-effective due to the high cost of a low sodium-DASH accordant diet, but significantly improved for high-risk populations and when the cost of the diet became slightly more affordable.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Biomarker-Guided Treatment for Metastatic Gastric Cancer in the Second-Line Setting.

BACKGROUND: The 5-year survival rate of patients with metastatic gastric cancer (GC) is only 5%. However, trials have demonstrated promising antitumor activity for targeted therapies/immunotherapies among chemorefractory metastatic GC patients. Pembrolizumab has shown particular efficacy among patients with programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) expression and high microsatellite instability (MSI-H). The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of biomarker-guided second-line GC treatment. METHODS: We constructed a Markov decision-analytic model using clinical trial data. Our model compared pembrolizumab monotherapy and ramucirumab/paclitaxel combination therapy for all patients and pembrolizumab for patients based on MSI status or PD-L1 expression. Paclitaxel monotherapy and best supportive care for all patients were additional comparators. Costs of drugs, treatment administration, follow-up, and management of adverse events were estimated from a US payer perspective. The primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY over 60 months. Secondary outcomes were unadjusted life years (survival) and costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty. RESULTS: The most effective strategy was pembrolizumab for MSI-H patients and ramucirumab/paclitaxel for all other patients, adding 3.8 months or 2.0 quality-adjusted months compared to paclitaxel. However, this strategy resulted in a prohibitively high ICER of $1,074,620/QALY. The only cost-effective strategy was paclitaxel monotherapy for all patients, with an ICER of $53,705/QALY. CONCLUSION: Biomarker-based treatments with targeted therapies/immunotherapies for second-line metastatic GC patients substantially improve unadjusted and quality-adjusted survival but are not cost-effective at current drug prices.

Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of Targeted Surgical and Endoscopic Therapies for Early Colorectal Adenocarcinoma Based on Biomarker Profiles.

Importance: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States. The prognosis for patients with CRC varies widely, but new prognostic biomarkers provide the opportunity to implement a more individualized approach to treatment selection. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 therapeutic strategies, namely, endoscopic therapy (ET), laparoscopic colectomy (LC), and open colectomy (OC), for patients with T1 CRC with biomarker profiles that prognosticate varying levels of tumor progression in the US payer perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation study, a Markov model was developed for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Risks of all-cause mortality and recurrent cancer after ET, LC, or OC were estimated with a 35-year time horizon. Quality of life was based on EuroQoL 5 Dimensions scores reported in the published literature. Hospital and treatment costs reflected Medicare reimbursement rates. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Data from patients with T1 CRC and 6 biomarker profiles that included adenomatous polyposis coli (APC), TP53 and/or KRAS, or BRAFV600E were used as inputs for the model. Data analyses were conducted from February 27, 2019, to May 13, 2019. Exposures: Endoscopic therapy, LC, and OC. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were unadjusted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between competing treatment strategies. Results: Endoscopic therapy had the highest QALYs and the lowest cost and was the dominant treatment strategy for T1 CRC with the following biomarker profiles: BRAFV600E, APC(1)/KRAS/TP53, APC(2) or APC(2)/KRAS or APC(2)/TP53, or APC(1) or APC(1)/KRAS or APC(1)/TP53. The QALYs gained ranged from 16.97 to 17.22, with costs between $68 902.75 and $77 784.53 in these subgroups. For the 2 more aggressive biomarker profiles with worse prognoses (APC(2)/KRAS/TP53 and APCwt [wild type]), LC was the most effective strategy (with 16.45 and 16.61 QALYs gained, respectively) but was not cost-effective. Laparoscopic colectomy cost $65 234.87 for APC(2)/KRAS/TP53 and $71 250.56 for APCwt, resulting in ICERs of $113 290 per QALY and $178 765 per QALY, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: This modeling analysis found that ET was the most effective strategy for patients with T1 CRC with less aggressive biomarker profiles. For patients with more aggressive profiles, LC was more effective but was costly, rendering ET the cost-effective option. This study highlights the potential utility of prognostic biomarkers in T1 CRC treatment selection.

Increased Healthcare Utilization by Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease Covered by Medicaid at a Tertiary Care Center.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status has been linked with numerous poor health outcomes, but data are limited regarding the impact of insurance status on inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) outcomes. We aimed to characterize utilization of healthcare resources by IBD patients based on health insurance status, using Medicaid enrollment as a proxy for low socioeconomic status. METHODS: We retrospectively identified adult patients with IBD engaged in a colorectal cancer surveillance colonoscopy program from July 2007 to June 2017. Our primary outcomes included emergency department (ED) visits, inpatient hospitalizations, biologic infusions, and steroid exposure, stratified by insurance status. We compared patients who had ever been enrolled in Medicaid with all other patients. RESULTS: Of 947 patients with IBD, 221 (23%) had been enrolled in Medicaid. Compared with patients with other insurance types, patients with Medicaid had higher rates of ever being admitted to the hospital (77.6% vs 42.6%, P < 0.0001) or visiting the ED (90.5% vs 38.4%, P < 0.0001). When adjusted for sex, age at first colonoscopy, and ethnicity, patients with Medicaid had a higher rate of inpatient hospitalizations (Rate ratio [RR] 2.95; 95% CI 2.59-3.36) and ED visits (RR 4.24; 95% CI 3.82-4.70) compared to patients with other insurance. Patients with Medicaid had significantly higher prevalence of requiring steroids (62.4% vs 37.7%, P < 0.0001), and after adjusting for the same factors, the odds of requiring steroids in the patients with Medicaid was increased (OR 3.77; 95% CI 2.53-5.62). CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid insurance was a significant predictor of IBD care and outcomes. Patients with Medicaid may have less engagement in IBD care and seek emergency care more often.