A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models.

Background: Mental illness costs the world economy over US2.5 Bn each year, including premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity losses. Multisector approaches are required to address the systemic drivers of mental health and ensure adequate service provision. There is an important role for economics to support priority setting, identify best value investments and inform optimal implementation. Mental health can be defined as a complex dynamic system where decision makers are challenged to prospectively manage the system over time. This protocol describes the approach to equip eight system dynamics (SD) models across Australia to support priority setting and guide portfolio investment decisions, tailored to local implementation context. Methods: As part of a multidisciplinary team, three interlinked protocols are developed; (i) the participatory process to codesign the models with local stakeholders and identify interventions for implementation, (ii) the technical protocol to develop the SD models to simulate the dynamics of the local population, drivers of mental health, the service system and clinical outcomes, and (iii) the economic protocol to detail how the SD models will be equipped to undertake a suite of economic analysis, incorporating health and societal perspectives. Models will estimate the cost of mental illness, inclusive of service costs (health and other sectors, where necessary), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity costs and carer costs. To assess the value of investing (disinvesting) in interventions, economic analysis will include return-on-investment, cost-utility, cost benefit, and budget impact to inform affordability. Economic metrics are expected to be dynamic, conditional upon changing population demographics, service system capacities and the mix of interventions when synergetic or antagonistic interactions. To support priority setting, a portfolio approach will identify best value combinations of interventions, relative to a defined budget(s). User friendly dashboards will guide decision makers to use the SD models to inform resource allocation and generate business cases for funding. Discussion: Equipping SD models to undertake economic analysis is intended to support local priority setting and help optimise implementation regarding the best value mix of investments, timing and scale. The objectives are to improve allocative efficiency, increase mental health and economic productivity.

Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To construct a whole-of-system model to inform strategies that reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed with a multidisciplinary modelling consortium. The model population comprised Australians aged 40 years and over, and the scope encompassed acute and chronic CVD as well as primary and secondary prevention. Health outcomes were CVD-related deaths and hospitalisations, and economic outcomes were the net benefit from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives. The eight strategies broadly included creating social and physical environments supportive of a healthy lifestyle, increasing the use of preventive treatments, and improving systems response to acute CVD events. The effects of strategies were estimated as relative differences to the business-as-usual between 2019-2039. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis produced uncertainty intervals of interquartile ranges (IQR). FINDINGS: The greatest reduction in CVD-related deaths was seen in strategies that improve systems response to acute CVD events (8.9%, IQR: 7.7-10.2%), yet they resulted in an increase in CVD-related hospitalisations due to future recurrent admissions (1.6%, IQR: 0.1-2.3%). This flow-on effect highlighted the importance of addressing underlying CVD risks. On the other hand, strategies targeting the broad environment that supports a healthy lifestyle were effective in reducing both hospitalisations (7.1%; IQR: 5.0-9.5%) and deaths (8.1% reduction; IQR: 7.1-8.9%). They also produced an economic net benefit of AU$43.3 billion (IQR: 37.7-48.7) using a societal perspective, largely driven by productivity gains. Overall, strategic planning to reduce the burden of CVD should consider the varying effects of strategies over time and beyond the health sector.

Study protocol for the Healthier Wealthier Families (HWF) pilot randomised controlled trial: testing the feasibility of delivering financial counselling to families with young children who are identified as experiencing financial hardship by community-based nurses.

INTRODUCTION: Poverty and deprivation can harm children's future health, learning, economic productivity and societal participation. The Australian Healthier Wealthier Families project seeks to reduce the childhood inequities caused by poverty and deprivation by creating a systematic referral pathway between two free, community-based services: universal, well-child nursing services, which provide health and development support to families with children from birth to school entry, and financial counselling. By adapting the successful Scottish 'Healthier Wealthier Children' model, the objectives of this Australian pilot are to test the (1) feasibility of systematising the referral pathway, and (2) short-term impacts on household finances, caregiver health, parenting efficacy and financial service use. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This pilot randomised controlled trial will run in three sites across two Australian states (Victoria and New South Wales), recruiting a total of 180 participants. Nurses identify eligible caregivers with a 6-item, study-designed screening survey for financial hardship. Caregivers who report one or more risk factors and consent are randomised. The intervention is financial counselling. The comparator is usual care plus information from a government money advice website. Feasibility will be evaluated using the number/proportion of caregivers who complete screening, consent and research measures, and access financial counselling. Though powered to assess feasibility, impacts will be measured 6 months post-enrolment with qualitative interviews and questionnaires about caregiver-reported income, loans and costs (adapted from national surveys, for example, the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey); health (General Health Questionnaire 1, EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire, Depression, Anxiety, Stress Scale short-form); efficacy (from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children); and financial service use (study-designed) compared between arms. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics committees of the Royal Children's Hospital (HREC/57372/RCHM-2019) and South West Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH13455) have approved the study. Participants and stakeholders will receive results through regular communication channels comprising meetings, presentations and publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12620000154909; prospectively registered. Pre-results.

The economic burden of physical inactivity: a systematic review and critical appraisal.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise the literature on the economic burden of physical inactivity in populations, with emphases on appraising the methodologies and providing recommendations for future studies. DESIGN: Systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PROSPERO registration number CRD42016047705). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases for peer-reviewed and grey literature were systematically searched, followed by reference searching and consultation with experts. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies that examined the economic consequences of physical inactivity in a population/population-based sample, with clearly stated methodologies and at least an abstract/summary written in English. RESULTS: Of the 40 eligible studies, 27 focused on direct healthcare costs only, 13 also estimated indirect costs and one study additionally estimated household costs. For direct costs, 23 studies used a population attributable fraction (PAF) approach with estimated healthcare costs attributable to physical inactivity ranging from 0.3% to 4.6% of national healthcare expenditure; 17 studies used an econometric approach, which tended to yield higher estimates than those using a PAF approach. For indirect costs, 10 studies used a human capital approach, two used a friction cost approach and one used a value of a statistical life approach. Overall, estimates varied substantially, even within the same country, depending on analytical approaches, time frame and other methodological considerations. CONCLUSION: Estimating the economic burden of physical inactivity is an area of increasing importance that requires further development. There is a marked lack of consistency in methodological approaches and transparency of reporting. Future studies could benefit from cross-disciplinary collaborations involving economists and physical activity experts, taking a societal perspective and following best practices in conducting and reporting analysis, including accounting for potential confounding, reverse causality and comorbidity, applying discounting and sensitivity analysis, and reporting assumptions, limitations and justifications for approaches taken. We have adapted the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist as a guide for future estimates of the economic burden of physical inactivity and other risk factors.

Doing it hard in the bush: Aligning what gets measured with what matters.

What gets measured gets managed. Funding of health services is substantially determined by operational activity and specific outcome indicators. In day-to-day clinical decision-making, surrogate markers, such as glycosylated haemoglobin and blood pressure, are commonly used to modify risks of 'hard' outcomes that include kidney failure, ischaemic cardiac events, stroke and all-cause mortality. In many settings, surrogates are all we have to go on. As a consequence, current health funding models heavily rely on surrogate-based key performance indicators [KPIs]. While surrogates are convenient and provide immediate information, there is an obligation to ensure that they are appropriate, reliable and validated in context. In contrast, hard outcomes, the real consequences of illness, are usually realised over an extended timeframe. Additionally, and for a host of reasons, hard endpoints have the greatest social, emotional and economic impact for people at the far end of the health system; those in rural and remote settings - 'in the bush' - especially Indigenous Australians. We propose a health service assessment approach that aligns short-term decision-making with patient-centred and longer term hard outcomes, one that takes into account community, cultural and environmental factors, especially remoteness. Communities should have a major say in determining what health indicators are measured and managed.

Are cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management programmes cost effective? A systematic review of the evidence.

The World Health Organization recommends that countries implement population-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management programmes. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate whether this recommendation is supported by cost-effectiveness evidence. Published economic evaluations were identified via electronic medical and social science databases (including Medline, Web of Science, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) from inception to March 2016. Study quality was evaluated using a modified version of the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. Fourteen economic evaluations were included: five studies based on randomised controlled trials, seven studies based on observational studies and two studies using hypothetical modelling synthesizing secondary data. Trial based studies measured CVD risk factor changes over 1 to 3years, with modelled projections of longer term events. Programmes were either not, or only, cost-effective under non-verified assumptions such as sustained risk factor changes. Most observational and hypothetical studies suggested programmes were likely to be cost-effective; however, study deigns are subject to bias and subsequent empirical evidence has contradicted key assumptions. No studies assessed impacts on inequalities. In conclusion, recommendations for population-wide risk assessment and management programmes lack a robust, real world, evidence basis. Given implementation is resource intensive there is a need for robust economic evaluation, ideally conducted alongside trials, to assess cost effectiveness. Further, the efficiency and equity impact of different delivery models should be investigated, and also the combination of targeted screening with whole population interventions recognising that there multiple approaches to prevention.

Efficacy of brief behavioral counselling by allied health professionals to promote physical activity in people with peripheral arterial disease (BIPP): study protocol for a multi-center randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is recommended for people with peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and can improve walking capacity and quality of life; and reduce pain, requirement for surgery and cardiovascular events. This trial will assess the efficacy of a brief behavioral counselling intervention delivered by allied health professionals to improve physical activity in people with PAD. METHODS: This is a multi-center randomised controlled trial in four cities across Australia. Participants (N = 200) will be recruited from specialist vascular clinics, general practitioners and research databases and randomised to either the control or intervention group. Both groups will receive usual medical care, a written PAD management information sheet including advice to walk, and four individualised contacts from a protocol-trained allied health professional over 3 months (weeks 1, 2, 6, 12). The control group will receive four 15-min telephone calls with general discussion about PAD symptoms and health and wellbeing. The intervention group will receive behavioral counselling via two 1-h face-to-face sessions and two 15-min telephone calls. The counselling is based on the 5A framework and will promote interval walking for 3 × 40 min/week. Assessments will be conducted at baseline, and 4, 12 and 24 months by staff blinded to participant allocation. Objectively assessed outcomes include physical activity (primary), sedentary behavior, lower limb body function, walking capacity, cardiorespiratory fitness, event-based claudication index, vascular interventions, clinical events, cardiovascular function, circulating markers, and anthropometric measures. Self-reported outcomes include physical activity and sedentary behavior, walking ability, pain severity, and health-related quality of life. Data will be analysed using an intention-to-treat approach. An economic evaluation will assess whether embedding the intervention into routine care would likely be value for money. A cost-effectiveness analysis will estimate change in cost per change in activity indicators due to the intervention, and a cost-utility analysis will assess change in cost per quality-adjusted life year. A full uncertainty analysis will be undertaken, including a value of information analysis, to evaluate the economic case for further research. DISCUSSION: This trial will evaluate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a brief behavioral counselling intervention for a common cardiovascular disease with significant burden. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN 12614000592640 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry. Registration Date 4 June 2014.

The economic burden of physical inactivity: a global analysis of major non-communicable diseases.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of physical inactivity is associated with a range of chronic diseases and early deaths. Despite the well documented disease burden, the economic burden of physical inactivity remains unquantified at the global level. A better understanding of the economic burden could help to inform resource prioritisation and motivate efforts to increase levels of physical activity worldwide. METHODS: Direct health-care costs, productivity losses, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to physical inactivity were estimated with standardised methods and the best data available for 142 countries, representing 93·2% of the world's population. Direct health-care costs and DALYs were estimated for coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colon cancer attributable to physical inactivity. Productivity losses were estimated with a friction cost approach for physical inactivity related mortality. Analyses were based on national physical inactivity prevalence from available countries, and adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with physical inactivity for each disease outcome and all-cause mortality. FINDINGS: Conservatively estimated, physical inactivity cost health-care systems international $ (INT$) 53·8 billion worldwide in 2013, of which $31·2 billion was paid by the public sector, $12·9 billion by the private sector, and $9·7 billion by households. In addition, physical inactivity related deaths contribute to $13·7 billion in productivity losses, and physical inactivity was responsible for 13·4 million DALYs worldwide. High-income countries bear a larger proportion of economic burden (80·8% of health-care costs and 60·4% of indirect costs), whereas low-income and middle-income countries have a larger proportion of the disease burden (75·0% of DALYs). Sensitivity analyses based on less conservative assumptions led to much higher estimates. INTERPRETATION: In addition to morbidity and premature mortality, physical inactivity is responsible for a substantial economic burden. This paper provides further justification to prioritise promotion of regular physical activity worldwide as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: None.

Relationships of multimorbidity and income with hospital admissions in 3 health care systems.

Associations of multimorbidity and income with hospital admission were investigated in population samples from 3 widely differing health care systems: Scotland (n = 36,921), China (n = 162,464), and Hong Kong (n = 29,187). Multimorbidity increased odds of admissions in all 3 settings. In Scotland, poorer people were more likely to be admitted (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.41-1.86 for the lowest income group vs the highest), whereas China showed the opposite (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.56-0.60). In Hong Kong, poorer people were more likely to be admitted to public hospitals (aOR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.36-2.07), but less likely to be admitted to private ones (aOR = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.13-0.25). Strategies to improve equitable health care should consider the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on the use of health care resources, particularly among populations with prevalent multimorbidity.

Estimating the burden of disease in chronic pain with and without neuropathic characteristics: does the choice between the EQ-5D and SF-6D matter?

The EQ-5D and Short Form (SF)12 are widely used generic health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires. They can be used to derive health utility index scores, on a scale where 0 is equivalent to death and 1 represents full health, with scores less than zero representing states "worse than death." We compared EQ-5D or SF-6D health utility index scores in patients with no chronic pain, and chronic pain with and without neuropathic characteristics (NC), and to explore their discriminant ability for pain severity. Self-reported health and chronic pain status was collected as part of a UK general population survey (n=4451). We found moderate agreement between individual dimensions of EQ-5D and SF-6D, with most highly correlated dimensions found for mental health and anxiety/depression, role limitations and usual activities, and pain and pain/discomfort. Overall 43% reported full health on the EQ-5D, compared with only 4.2% on the SF-6D. There were significant differences in mean utilities for chronic pain with NC (EQ-5D 0.47 vs SF-6D 0.62) and especially for severe pain (EQ-5D 0.33 vs SF-6D 0.58). On the EQ-5D, 17% of those with chronic pain with NC and 3% without NC scored "worse than death," a state which is not possible using the SF-6D. Health utilities derived from EQ-5D and SF-12/36 can discriminate between group differences for chronic pain with and without NC and greater pain severity. However, the instruments generate widely differing HRQoL scores for the same patient groups. The choice between using the EQ-5D or SF-6D matters greatly when estimating the burden of disease.

Double trouble: the impact of multimorbidity and deprivation on preference-weighted health related quality of life a cross sectional analysis of the Scottish Health Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between multimorbidity and Preference_Weighted Health Related Quality of Life (PW_HRQoL), a score that combines physical and mental functioning, and how this varies by socioeconomic deprivation and age. DESIGN: The Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) is a cross-sectional representative survey of the general population which included the SF-12, a survey of HRQoL, for individuals 20 years and over. METHODS: For 7,054 participants we generated PW_HRQoL scores by running SF-12 responses through the SF-6D algorithm. The resulting scores ranged from 0.29 (worst health) to 1 (perfect health). Using ordinary least squares, we first investigated associations between scores and increasing counts of longstanding conditions, and then repeated for multimorbidity (2+ conditions). Estimates were made for the general population and quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation. For multimorbidity, the analyses were repeated stratifying the population by age group (20-44, 45-64, 65+). RESULTS: 45% of participants reported a longstanding condition and 18% reported multimorbidity. The presence of 1, 2, or 3+ longstanding conditions were associated with average reductions in PW_HRQoL scores of 0.081, 0.151 and 0.212 respectively. Reduction in scores associated with multimorbidity was 33% greater in the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived quintile, with the biggest difference (80%) in the 20-44 age groups. There were no significant gender differences. CONCLUSIONS: PW_HRQoL decreases markedly with multimorbidity, and is exacerbated by higher deprivation and younger age. There is a need to prioritise interventions to improve the HRQoL for (especially younger) adults with multimorbidity in deprived areas. BOX 1: What Is Known?Prevalence and premature onset of multimorbidity increases as socioeconomic position worsens. Previous studies have investigated the effect of multimorbidity on Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) on separate physical and mental health states. There is limited data on how HRQoL falls as the number of conditions increase, and how estimates vary across the general population.Leaving physical and mental health as separate categories can inhibit assessment of overall HRQoL. The use of a Preference_Weighted Health Related Quality of Life (PW_HRQoL) score provides a single summary measure of overall health, by weighting mental and physical states by their perceived importance as part of overall HRQoL. The use of a single score enables a simple and consistent assessment of the impact of conditions and how this varies across the population. Economists term PW_HRQoL scores health utilities.What this study adds?This is the first study to estimate how the impact of multimorbidity on PW_HRQoL scores varies by age group and socioeconomic deprivation. Multimorbidity has a substantial negative impact on HRQoL which is most severe in areas of deprivation, especially in younger adults.Measuring the burden of multimorbidity using PW_HRQoL provides consistency with how economists measure HRQoL; changes in which can be used in economic evaluation to assess the cost effectiveness of interventions.

Outcome measurement in economic evaluations of public health interventions: a role for the capability approach?

Public health interventions have received increased attention from policy makers, and there has been a corresponding increase in the number of economic evaluations within the domain of public health. However, methods to evaluate public health interventions are less well established than those for medical interventions. Focusing on health as an outcome measure is likely to underestimate the impact of many public health interventions. This paper provides a review of outcome measures in public health; and describes the benefits of using the capability approach as a means to developing an all encompassing outcome measure.