Early detection of West Nile virus in France: quantitative assessment of syndromic surveillance system using nervous signs in horses.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing public health concern in Europe and there is a need to develop more efficient early detection systems. Nervous signs in horses are considered to be an early indicator of WNV and, using them in a syndromic surveillance system, might be relevant. In our study, we assessed whether or not data collected by the passive French surveillance system for the surveillance of equine diseases can be used routinely for the detection of WNV. We tested several pre-processing methods and detection algorithms based on regression. We evaluated system performances using simulated and authentic data and compared them to those of the surveillance system currently in place. Our results show that the current detection algorithm provided similar performances to those tested using simulated and real data. However, regression models can be easily and better adapted to surveillance objectives. The detection performances obtained were compatible with the early detection of WNV outbreaks in France (i.e. sensitivity 98%, specificity >94%, timeliness 2·5 weeks and around four false alarms per year) but further work is needed to determine the most suitable alarm threshold for WNV surveillance in France using cost-efficiency analysis.

A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France.

BACKGROUND: African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus's arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France. RESULTS: The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements. CONCLUSION: It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS' potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe.

A retrospective evaluation of the causes of death of 448 insured French horses in 1995.

Epidemiological studies should allow comparisons to be made of the prevalence of disease in populations from different countries, but the population characteristics and health problems in French horses are not well established. We have conducted a retrospective evaluation of the causes of death and vital characteristics of insured horses in France for the year 1995, with a view to comparison with published data from other countries. Files on 448 deceased horses were provided by nine insurance companies. Most of the animals were used for breeding (60%), followed by leisure (20%), eventing and racing (10% each). Physical characteristics were associated significantly with occupational categories. The overall mortality rate was 2.47%, and was due, in decreasing order, to foaling (24%), colic (21%) or locomotor (21%), cardiovascular (9%), neurological (8%), respiratory (5%) or infectious (4%) disease. Infectious disease was more frequent in younger animals (p < 0.05) and locomotor disease in racehorses (p < 0.01). Horses aged over 15 years had a lower incidence of colic (p <0.05). The cause of death was not significantly linked to breed, insurance value or season. Despite some selection bias, the study provides useful information about mortality in the French equine population.