The epidemiologic and economic impact of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in South Korea: A mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In South Korea, the National Immunization Program has included one-dose varicella vaccination for 1-year-olds since 2005. This study examines the potential impact of introducing a two-dose varicella vaccination for children, along with zoster vaccination for adults, using either the zoster vaccine live (ZVL) or recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV). METHODS: The investigation considered four strategies in a base case scenario. The first involved introducing zoster vaccination for 60-year-olds, with a 60 % coverage. The second strategy combined zoster vaccination with a second-dose varicella vaccination for 4-year-olds, with a 90 % coverage. An age-structured model spanning 50 years was employed, assuming a zoster vaccine catch-up campaign over the initial 5 years. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted, assessing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs), and net loss under different ages at zoster vaccination (50, 60, 65, and 70 years) and varying willingness-to-pay (WTP) levels from ₩40 million ($34,998) to ₩84 million ($74,000). RESULTS: All strategies were cost-effective and significantly reduced herpes zoster (HZ) incidence, preventing approximately 3,077,000 to 7,609,000 cases, depending on the chosen strategy. The combined strategy prevented around 4,950,000 varicella and 653,000 HZ cases additionally. RZV outperformed ZVL by preventing twice as many HZ cases and offering greater QALY gains. However, ZVL was more cost-effective due to its lower cost. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that RZV became more cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds, exceeding ₩60.9 million ($53,193) in terms of ICER and ₩62.5 million ($54,591) for INMBs and net loss. The optimal age for zoster vaccination was 60 years concerning ICER but 50 years regarding INMB. CONCLUSIONS: Combining RZV with a two-dose varicella vaccination strategy reduced the disease burden and improved QALY more effectively, though ZVL remained more cost-effective at lower WTP levels. Decisions regarding vaccination policies should be balanced between the public health needs and WTP levels.

In vivo shear wave elasticity imaging for assessment of diaphragm function in muscular dystrophy.

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes patients to suffer from ambulatory disability and cardiorespiratory failure, the latter of which leads to premature death. Due to its role in respiration, the diaphragm is an important muscle for study. A common method for evaluating diaphragm function is ex vivo force testing, which only allows for an end point measurement. In contrast, ultrasound shear wave elastography imaging (US-SWEI) can assess diaphragm function over time; however, US-SWEI studies in dystrophic patients to date have focused on the limbs without preclinical studies. In this work, we used US-SWEI to estimate the shear wave speed (SWS) in diaphragm muscles of healthy (WT) mice, mdx mice, and mdx mice haploinsufficient for utrophin (mdx-utr) at 6 and 12 months of age. Diaphragms were then subjected to ex vivo force testing and histological analysis at 12 months of age. Between 6 and 12 months, a 23.8% increase in SWS was observed in WT mice and a 27.8% increase in mdx mice, although no significant difference was found in mdx-utr mice. Specific force generated by mdx-utr diaphragms was lower than that of WT diaphragms following twitch stimulus. A strong correlation between SWS and collagen deposition was observed, as well as between SWS and muscle fiber size. Together, these data demonstrate the ability of US-SWEI to evaluate dystrophic diaphragm functionality over time and predict the biochemical and morphological make-up of the diaphragm. Additionally, our results highlight the advantage of US-SWEI over ex vivo testing by obtaining longitudinal measurements in the same subject. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: In DMD patients, muscles experience cycles of regeneration and degeneration that contribute to chronic inflammation and muscle weakness. This pathology only worsens with time and leads to muscle wasting, including in respiratory and cardiac muscles. Because respiratory failure is a major contributor to premature death in DMD patients, the diaphragm muscle is an important muscle to evaluate and treat over time. Currently, diaphragm function is assessed using ex vivo force testing, a technique that only allows measurement at sacrifice. In contrast, ultrasonography, particularly shear wave elasticity imaging (USSWEI), is a promising tool for longitudinal assessment; however, most US-SWEI in DMD patients aimed for limb muscles only with the absence of preclinical studies. This work broadens the applications of US-SWE imaging by demonstrating its ability to track properties and function of dystrophic diaphragm muscles longitudinally in multiple dystrophic mouse models.

Cost-Effectiveness of Age-Expanding Strategy of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Treatment in Household Contacts in South Korea.

PURPOSE: The strategy of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment in household tuberculosis (TB) contacts has been expanding in South Korea. However, there is little evidence of the cost-effectiveness of LTBI treatment in patients over 35 years of age. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of LTBI treatment among household TB contacts in different age groups in South Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An age-structured model of TB was developed based on the reports from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the National Health Insurance Service. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and the averted number of TB-related deaths were estimated along with discounted costs for a measure of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: The number of cumulative active TB cases would decrease by 1564 and 7450 under the scenario of LTBI treatment for those aged <35 years and <70 years, respectively, relative to the no-treatment scenario. The treatment strategies for patients aged 0 to <35 years, <55 years, <65 years, and <70 years would add 397, 1482, 3782, and 8491 QALYs at a cost of $660, $5930, $4560, and $2530, respectively, per QALY. For the averted TB-related deaths, LTBI treatment targeting those aged 0 to <35 years, <55 years, <65 years, and <70 years would avert 7, 89, 155, and 186 deaths at a cost of $35900, $99200, $111100, and $115700 per deaths, respectively, in 20 years. CONCLUSION: The age-specific expansion policy of LTBI treatment not only for those under 35 years of age but also for those under 65 years of age among household contacts was cost-effective in terms of QALYs and averted TB deaths.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Tafenoquine for Radical Cure of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Korea.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax malaria has a persistent liver stage that causes relapse, and introducing tafenoquine to suppress relapse could aid in disease eradication. Therefore, we assessed the impact of tafenoquine introduction on P. vivax malaria incidence and performed a cost-benefit analysis from the payer's perspective. METHODS: We expanded the previously developed P. vivax malaria dynamic transmission model and calibrated it to weekly civilian malaria incidences in 2014-2018. Primaquine and tafenoquine scenarios were considered by assuming different relapse probabilities, and relapse and total P. vivax malaria cases were predicted over the next decade for each scenario. We then estimated the number of cases prevented by replacing primaquine with tafenoquine. The cost and benefit of introducing tafenoquine were obtained using medical expenditure from a nationwide database, and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the economic feasibility robustness of tafenoquine introduction under uncertainties of model parameters, costs, and benefits. RESULTS: Under 0.04 primaquine relapse probability, the introduction of tafenoquine with relapse probability of 0.01 prevented 129 (12.27%) and 35 (77.78%) total and relapse cases, respectively, over the next decade. However, under the same relapse probability as primaquine, introducing tafenoquine had no additional preventative effect. The 14-day primaquine treatment cost was $3.71. The tafenoquine and the glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase rapid diagnostic testing cost $57.37 and $7.76, totaling $65.13. The average medical expenditure per malaria patient was estimated at $1444.79. The cost-benefit analysis results provided an incremental benefit-cost ratio (IBCR) from 0 to 3.21 as the tafenoquine relapse probability decreased from 0.04 to 0.01. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an IBCR > 1, indicating that tafenoquine is beneficial, with a probability of 69.1%. CONCLUSION: Tafenoquine could reduce P. vivax malaria incidence and medical costs and bring greater benefits than primaquine.

Correction: A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241169.].

Modelling the impact of rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Korea: a cost-benefit analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used for diagnosing Plasmodium vivax malaria, especially in resource-limited countries. However, the impact of RDTs on P. vivax malaria incidence and national medical costs has not been evaluated. We assessed the impact of RDT implementation on P. vivax malaria incidence and overall medical expenditures in South Korea and performed a cost-benefit analysis from the payer's perspective. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartmental model for P. vivax malaria transmission in South Korea using delay differential equations. Long latency and seasonality were incorporated into the model, which was calibrated to civilian malaria incidences during 2014-2018. We then estimated averted malaria cases and total medical costs from two diagnostic scenarios: microscopy only and both microscopy and RDTs. Medical costs were extracted based on data from a hospital in an at-risk area for P. vivax malaria and were validated using Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service data. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis of RDTs using the incremental benefit:cost ratio (IBCR) considering only medical costs and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to reflect the uncertainties of model parameters, costs and benefits. RESULTS: The results showed that 55.3% of new P. vivax malaria cases were averted, and $696 214 in medical costs was saved over 10 years after RDT introduction. The estimated IBCR was 2.5, indicating that RDT implementation was beneficial, compared with microscopy alone. The IBCR was sensitive to the diagnosis time reduction, infectious period and short latency period, and provided beneficial results in a benefit over $10.6 or RDT cost under $39.7. CONCLUSIONS: The model simulation suggested that RDTs could significantly reduce P. vivax malaria incidence and medical costs. Moreover, cost-benefit analysis demonstrated that the introduction of RDTs was beneficial over microscopy alone. These results support the need for widespread adoption of RDTs.

A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies.

Novel coronavirus (named SARS-CoV-2) can spread widely in confined settings including hospitals, cruise ships, prisons, and places of worship. In particular, a healthcare-associated outbreak could become the epicenter of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different intervention strategies on the hospital outbreak within a tertiary hospital. A mathematical model was developed for the COVID-19 transmission within a 2500-bed tertiary hospital of South Korea. The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with a compartment of doctor, nurse, patient, and caregiver was constructed. The effects of different intervention strategies such as front door screening, quarantine unit for newly admitted patients, early testing of suspected infected people, and personal protective equipment for both medical staff and visitors were evaluated. The model suggested that the early testing (within eight hours) of infected cases and monitoring the quarantine ward for newly hospitalized patients are effective measures for decreasing the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital (81.3% and 70% decrease of number of incident cases, respectively, during 60 days). Front door screening for detecting suspected cases had only 42% effectiveness. Screening for prohibiting the admission of COVID-19 patients was more effective than the measures for patients before emergency room or outpatient clinic. This model suggests that under the assumed conditions, some effective measures have a great influence on the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital. The implementation of the preventive measures could reduce the size of a hospital outbreak.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for the prevention of HIV in men who have sex with men in South Korea: a mathematical modelling study.

In February 2018, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea approved tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) co-formulate for use in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP in men who have sex with men (MSM), a major risk group emerging in Korea. A dynamic compartmental model was developed for HIV transmission and progression in MSM aged 15-64 years. With a combined model including economic analysis, we estimated averted HIV infections, changes in HIV prevalence, discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM and high-risk MSM populations and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 80%. Implementing PrEP in all MSM would avert 75.2% HIV infections and facilitate a gain of 37,372 QALYs at a cost of $274,822 per QALY gained over 20 years relative to the status quo. Initiating PrEP in high-risk MSM with an average of eight partners per year (around 20% of MSM) would improve the cost-effectiveness, averting 78.0% HIV infections and add 29,242 QALYs at a cost of $51,597 per QALY gained, which is within the willingness-to-pay threshold for Korea of $56,000/QALY gained. This result was highly sensitive to annual PrEP costs, quality-of-life for people who are on PrEP, and initial HIV prevalence. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM in Korea would prevent more HIV infections, but at an increasing cost per QALY gained. Focusing PrEP on higher risk MSM and any reduction in PrEP cost would improve cost-effectiveness.

A comparison of the flavor of green teas from around the world.

BACKGROUND: Green teas can be grouped based on their flavor profiles. The country of origin appears to have a strong influence on the flavor of green tea probably because similar processing methods are widely used within each particular country and flavor is dependent, in part, on processing. The aim of this article is to determine what flavor differences exist among a wide range of green teas (n = 138) produced in various countries. RESULTS: In this study we found that roast-processed teas were mostly responsible for brown-related flavors and steam-processed teas were responsible for green-related flavors. The prices of the green teas did not differentiate the flavors of the samples. Often highly priced green teas were grouped with low-priced green teas from the same manufacturer or country of origin according to their flavor attributes. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the tea plant varieties or cultivars likely affects flavors in green tea. However, those were not known for many samples in this research and more study will be needed to determine the effects of specific differences in varieties or cultivars.