Risk-Stratified Screening for Colorectal Cancer Using Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Based on Real-World Data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening were based on hypothetical performance of CRC risk prediction and did not consider the association with competing causes of death. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening using real-world data for CRC risk and competing causes of death. METHODS: Risk predictions for CRC and competing causes of death from a large community-based cohort were used to stratify individuals into risk groups. A microsimulation model was used to optimize colonoscopy screening for each risk group by varying the start age (40-60 years), end age (70-85 years), and screening interval (5-15 years). The outcomes included personalized screening ages and intervals and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform colonoscopy screening (ages 45-75, every 10 years). Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Risk-stratified screening resulted in substantially different screening recommendations, ranging from a one-time colonoscopy at age 60 for low-risk individuals to a colonoscopy every 5 years from ages 40 to 85 for high-risk individuals. Nevertheless, on a population level, risk-stratified screening would increase net quality-adjusted life years gained (QALYG) by only 0.7% at equal costs to uniform screening or reduce average costs by 1.2% for equal QALYG. The benefit of risk-stratified screening improved when it was assumed to increase participation or costs less per genetic test. CONCLUSIONS: Personalized screening for CRC, accounting for competing causes of death risk, could result in highly tailored individual screening programs. However, average improvements across the population in QALYG and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform screening are small.

Trends and Projections in National United States Health Care Spending for Gastrointestinal Malignancies (1996-2030).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The management of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers is associated with high health care spending. We estimated trends in United States (US) health care spending for patients with GI cancers between 1996 and 2016 and developed projections to 2030. METHODS: We used economic data, adjusted for inflation, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations for the Disease Expenditure Project. Corresponding US age-adjusted prevalence of GI cancers was estimated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study. Prevalence-adjusted temporal trends in the US health care spending in patients with GI cancers, stratified by cancer site, age, and setting of care, were estimated using joinpoint regression, expressed as annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to project spending to 2030. RESULTS: In 2016, total spending for GI cancers was primarily attributable to colorectal ($10.50 billion; 95% CI, $9.35-$11.70 billion) and pancreatic cancer ($2.55 billion; 95% CI, $2.23-$2.82 billion), and primarily for inpatient care (64.5%). Despite increased total spending, more recent per-patient spending for pancreatic (APC 2008-2016, -1.4%; 95% CI, -2.2% to -0.7%), gallbladder/biliary tract (APC 2010-2016, -4.3%; 95% CI, -4.8% to -3.8%), and gastric cancer (APC 2011-2016, -4.4%; 95% CI, -5.8% to -2.9%) decreased. Increasing price and intensity of care provision was the largest driver of higher expenditures. By 2030, it is projected more than $21 billion annually will be spent on GI cancer management. CONCLUSIONS: Total spending for GI cancers in the US is substantial and projected to increase. Expenditures are primarily driven by inpatient care for colorectal cancer, although per-capita spending trends differ by GI cancer type.

Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act eliminated cost sharing for preventive services, including colorectal cancer screening for individuals aged 50-75 years with private health insurance. This study examines the impact of the Affordable Care Act's removal of cost sharing for colorectal cancer screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: Trends in colorectal cancer incidence and colorectal cancer‒related mortality were modeled among 2,113,283 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members aged ≥50 years between 2003 and 2016 using an interrupted time-series design. As a sensitivity analysis, a controlled analysis utilized a comparison group of members covered with pre‒Affordable Care Act zero cost sharing for colorectal cancer screening. Analyses were performed in 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: The colorectal cancer incidence dropped by 17% around the time the Affordable Care Act was enacted (change in level incidence rate ratio; 95% CI=0.77, 0.90, 2-sided p-value <0.0001), followed by a 3% further decrease per year (95% CI=0.93, 1.00, p=0.05). A similar pattern was observed for colorectal cancer‒related mortality. The controlled results indicated that the elimination of cost sharing for screening due to the Affordable Care Act was associated with greater improvements in colorectal cancer outcomes among members previously covered by health plans with out-of-pocket costs for screening than among those with health plans with zero cost sharing for screening before the Affordable Care Act. CONCLUSIONS: The elimination of cost sharing for colorectal cancer screening due to the Affordable Care Act was associated with a decrease in age-, race/ethnicity-, and sex-adjusted colorectal cancer incidence and colorectal cancer‒related mortality, implying that policies that remove barriers to screening, particularly financial burden from cost sharing, can result in improved colorectal cancer outcomes.

Urban-Rural Disparities and Temporal Trends in Peptic Ulcer Disease Epidemiology, Treatment, and Outcomes in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) has been decreasing over time with Helicobacter pylori eradication and use of acid-suppressing therapies. However, PUD remains a common cause of hospitalization in the United States. We aimed to evaluate contemporary national trends in the incidence, treatment patterns, and outcomes for PUD-related hospitalizations and compare care delivery by hospital rurality. METHODS: Data from the National Inpatient Sample were used to estimate weighted annual rates of PUD-related hospitalizations. Temporal trends were evaluated by joinpoint regression and expressed as annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the proportion of hospitalizations requiring endoscopic and surgical interventions, stratified by clinical presentation and rurality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and postoperative morbidity. RESULTS: There was a 25.8% reduction (P < 0.001) in PUD-related hospitalizations from 2005 to 2014, although the rate of decline decreased from -7.2% per year (95% CI: 13.2% to -0.7%) before 2008 to -2.1% per year (95% CI: 3.0% to -1.1%) after 2008. In-hospital mortality was 2.4% (95% CI: 2.4%-2.5%). Upper endoscopy (84.3% vs 78.4%, P < 0.001) and endoscopic hemostasis (26.1% vs 16.8%, P < 0.001) were more likely to be performed in urban hospitals, whereas surgery was performed less frequently (9.7% vs 10.5%, P < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression, patients managed in urban hospitals were at higher risk for postoperative morbidity (odds ratio 1.16 [95% CI: 1.04-1.29]), but not death (odds ratio 1.11 [95% CI: 1.00-1.23]). DISCUSSION: The rate of decline in hospitalization rates for PUD has stabilized over time, although there remains significant heterogeneity in treatment patterns by hospital rurality.

Cost-effectiveness of a mailed educational reminder to increase colorectal cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates are low in many areas and cost-effective interventions to promote CRC screening are needed. Recently in a randomized controlled trial, a mailed educational reminder increased CRC screening rates by 16.2% among U.S. Veterans. The aim of our study was to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of a mailed educational reminder on fecal occult blood test (FOBT) adherence. METHODS: In a blinded, randomized, controlled trial, 769 patients were randomly assigned to the usual care group (FOBT alone, n = 382) or the intervention group (FOBT plus a mailed reminder, n = 387). Ten days after picking up the FOBT cards, a 1-page reminder with information related to CRC screening was mailed to the intervention group. Primary outcome was number of returned FOBT cards after 6 months. The costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention were assessed and calculated respectively. Sensitivity analyses were based on varying costs of labor and supplies. RESULTS: At 6 months after card distribution, 64.6% patients in the intervention group returned FOBT cards compared with 48.4% in the control group (P < 0.001). The total cost of the intervention was $962 or $2.49 per patient, and the ICER was $15 per additional person screened for CRC. Sensitivity analysis based on a 10% cost variation was $13.50 to $16.50 per additional patient screened for CRC. CONCLUSIONS: A simple mailed educational reminder increases FOBT card return rate at a cost many health care systems can afford. Compared to other patient-directed interventions (telephone, letters from physicians, mailed reminders) for CRC screening, our intervention was more effective and cost-effective.

Endoscopy is accurate, safe, and effective in the assessment and management of complications following gastric bypass surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is a common intervention for morbid obesity. Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) symptoms are frequent and difficult to interpret following RYGB. The aim of our study was to examine the role of endoscopy in evaluating UGI symptoms after RYGB and to assess the safety and efficacy of endoscopic therapy. METHODS: Between 1998 and 2005, a total of 1,079 patients underwent RYGB for clinically severe obesity and were followed prospectively. Patients with UGI symptoms after RYGB who were referred for endoscopy were studied. RESULTS: Of 1,079 patients, 76 (7%) who underwent RYGB were referred for endoscopy to evaluate UGI symptoms. Endoscopic findings included normal surgical anatomy (n=24, 31.6%), anastomotic stricture (n=40, 52.6%), marginal ulcer (n=12, 15.8%), unraveled nonabsorbable sutures causing functional obstruction (n=3, 4%) and gastrogastric fistula (n=2, 2.6%). Patients with abnormal findings on endoscopy presented with UGI symptoms at a mean of 110.7 days from their RYGB, which was significantly shorter than the time of 347.5 days for patients with normal endoscopy (P<0.001). A total of 40 patients with anastomotic strictures underwent 86 endoscopic balloon dilations before complete symptomatic relief. In one patient, a needle knife was used to open a completely obstructed anastomotic stricture. Unraveled, nonabsorbable suture material was successfully removed using endoscopic scissors in three patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients presenting with UGI symptoms less than 3 months after surgery are more likely to have an abnormal finding on endoscopy. Endoscopic balloon dilation is safe and effective in managing anastomotic strictures. Endoscopic scissors are safe and effective in removing unraveled, nonabsorbable sutures contributing to obstruction.