A qualitative assessment of key considerations for drug checking service implementation.

BACKGROUND: With many drug-related deaths driven by potent synthetic opioids tainting the illicit drug supply, drug checking services are becoming a key harm reduction strategy. Many drug checking technologies are available, ranging from fentanyl test strips to mass spectrometry. This study aimed to identify key considerations when implementing drug checking technologies and services to support harm reduction initiatives. METHODS: Key informant interviews were conducted with harm reduction stakeholders throughout Illinois. Participants included members of existing drug checking services and recovery centers. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded by two researchers using the framework method. Findings were contextualized according to micro (client)-, meso (organization)-, and macro (policy)-level themes. RESULTS: Seven interviews were conducted with ten participants. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was consistently identified as a technology of choice given its accuracy, range of substance detection, portability, and usability. Recommendations included the use of confirmatory testing, which can help address the limitations of technologies and provide a mechanism to train technicians. Locations of drug checking services should maximize public health outreach and leverage existing harm reduction agencies and staff with lived experience, who are critical to developing trust and rapport with clients. Criminalization and loss of privacy were major concerns for clients using drug checking services. Additional issues included the need to raise awareness of the legitimacy of services through public support from governing bodies, and funding to ensure the sustainability of drug checking services. CONCLUSIONS: This research facilitated the identification of issues and recommendations from stakeholders around key considerations for the adoption of drug checking technologies, which not only included the cost and technical specifications of instrumentation, but also broader issues such as accessibility, privacy, and well-trained personnel trusted by clients of the service. Successful implementation of drug checking services requires knowledge of local needs and capacity and an in-depth understanding of the target population.

Trend in Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Utilization, Price, and Out-of-Pocket Costs in Patients With Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia.

PURPOSE: Treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) has improved survival but is associated with significant financial burden. We measured the annual trend in TKI utilization, Medicare gross payment, and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure from 2007 to 2016. METHODS: We used SEER linked to Medicare part-D claims data to identify prevalent CML cases from 2007 to 2016. TKI utilization was measured as the proportion of cases with at least one TKI fill in each year. Average TKI gross payment and median per-member per-month OOP expenditure were calculated from claims data and plotted annually from 2007 to 2016. Year-to-year percent change in gross payment and OOP expenditure was compared with inflation indices. RESULTS: The cohort included 3,189 CML cases with at least one TKI claim. The proportion of prevalent patients with a TKI fill in a year increased from 17.9% in 2007 to 52.8% in 2015. The average annual gross payment per 30-day supply of a TKI increased by an average of 12.8% throughout the period from $9,000 to $10,000 US dollars in 2016. There was no increasing trend in median OOP expenditure per 30-day supply, which varied between $450 and $600 US dollars. CONCLUSION: Rising TKI use and TKI drug prices place considerable financial pressure on Medicare part-D insurers. Although there was no increasing trend in OOP expenditure, it may be burdensome for Medicare patients who are likely retired on a fixed income. Our findings support legislation that mitigates increasing drug prices to protect the Medicare system and its beneficiaries.

Racial Disparities in Intravenous Bisphosphonate Use Among Older Patients With Multiple Myeloma Enrolled in Medicare.

PURPOSE: Intravenous (IV) bisphosphonates reduce the risk of skeletal-related events in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). However, data describing racial differences in IV bisphosphonate utilization outside of clinical trial settings are limited. We evaluated population-level IV bisphosphonate initiation and discontinuation among patients of age ≥ 65 years with MM. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients of age ≥ 65 years diagnosed with first primary MM between 2001 and 2011. Patients were identified using the SEER-Medicare linked database and followed through December 2013. Cumulative incidences of IV bisphosphonate initiation and time to discontinuation among users were compared between racial and ethnic groups. In Fine and Gray competing risk models, we estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs for initiation and discontinuation. RESULTS: We included 14,231 eligible patients with MM (median age, 76 years; 52% male). Over a median follow-up of 23.1 months, 54% of patients received at least one IV bisphosphonate dose. Our final analytical sample included 10,456 non-Hispanic (NH) Whites, 2,267 NH Blacks, 548 Asian and Pacific islanders, and 815 Hispanic and Latino patients. A higher proportion of White patients (56.1%) newly received IV bisphosphonates after MM diagnosis compared with NH Blacks (45.4%). Compared with White patients, NH Black patients were less likely to initiate IV bisphosphonates (SHR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.79) and slightly more likely to discontinue treatment (SHR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.19). CONCLUSION: Approximately half of the patients with MM of age ≥ 65 years did not receive IV bisphosphonates, with significant delay among racial minority groups. These findings highlight the need for improvement of IV bisphosphonate uptake in patients with MM of age ≥ 65 years.

Impact of adverse event reports from marketing authorization holder-sponsored patient support programs on the performance of signal detection in pharmacovigilance.

OBJECTIVES: Marketing authorization holder (MAH)-sponsored patient support programs (PSPs) are a major source of adverse event (AE) reports. The impact of reports from PSPs on the ability to detect AE signals is unclear. We compared signal detection performance using data from PSPs vs. non-PSP sources, and between PSPs providing clinical services vs. PSPs not providing clinical services. METHODS: Data were obtained from an internal safety database for a global pharmaceutical company 2015-2017. We assessed whether signals were detected for the reference drug-AE pairs using data from PSPs vs. non-PSP sources, and among different PSP services. The performance was evaluated by four measures including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and time-to-signal detection. RESULTS: While the majority of reports were from PSPs, non-PSP sources were better and faster at detecting signals (AUC 0.63 vs. 0.41, p = 0.035; HR 3.52, p = 0.014) compared to PSPs. Within PSPs, PSPs providing clinical services were marginally better at detecting signals (AUC 0.60 vs. 0.41, p = 0.053) but not faster compared to PSPs not providing clinical services. CONCLUSION: Reports of AEs from PSPs had worse signal detection performance compared to non-PSP sources. Pharmacovigilance experts should be mindful when using databases that contain reports from PSPs for signal detection.

Hospitalization and emergency department utilization in patients with advanced melanoma receiving pembrolizumab versus ipilimumab plus nivolumab in US academic centers.

Background: Both pembrolizumab (PEMBRO) and ipilimumab + nivolumab (IPI + NIVO) are FDA-approved immunotherapy regimens for advanced melanoma (AM). Each regimen has different toxicity profiles potentially impacting healthcare resource utilization (HCRU). This study compared real-world hospitalization and emergency department (ED) utilization within 12 months of therapy initiation of each regimen.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in AM patients ≥18 years old initiating PEMBRO or IPI + NIVO between January 1, 2016-December 30, 2017. Patients were identified from 12 US-based academic and satellite centers. All-cause hospitalization ED visits were identified. These events were used to calculate rates per 1,000 patient months. Utilization between groups was compared using multivariate logistic regression.Results: In total, 400 patients were included (200 PEMBRO, 200 IPI + NIVO). PEMBRO vs IPI + NIVO patients had poorer Eastern Cooperative Group (ECOG) performance status, 29% 2-4, vs 12% (p < .001); more diabetes, 21% vs 13% (p = .045); were more often PD-L1 expression positive, 77% vs 63% (p = .011); and less likely BRAF mutant, 35% vs 50% (p = .003). The proportion with more than one hospitalization over 12 months was 17% PEMBRO vs 24% IPI + NIVO. Less than 2% had more than one admission and none had more than two. Unadjusted mean (SD) hospitalizations per 1,000 patient-months were 16 (37) and 20 (38), PEMBRO and IPI + NIVO, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for hospitalization was 0.6 (95% CI = 0.3-0.9; p = .027) for PEMBRO vs IPI + NIVO. ED visits occurred in 18% vs 21%, PEMBRO and IPI + NIVO, respectively, 0.7 (p = .186).Conclusions: PEMBRO patients had a significantly lower probability of hospitalization through 12 months vs IPI + NIVO. The probability of ED visits did not differ.

Adherence and Persistence with DPP-4 Inhibitors Versus Pioglitazone in Type 2 Diabetes Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Claims Database Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adherence and persistence with diabetes medication play an important role in glycemic control and may differ by medication class. However, there is a lack of research comparing diabetes medications in patients with renal impairment, despite the challenges and higher burden associated with managing this population. OBJECTIVE: To compare adherence and persistence among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and nondialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) treated with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors versus pioglitazone. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used Truven MarketScan administrative claims databases from 2009 to 2015. One-year adherence for patients with T2DM and nondialysis CKD who initiated therapy with either a DPP-4 inhibitor or pioglitazone was measured by proportion of days covered (PDC) following an initial dispensing, and PDC ≥ 0.80 was coded as adherent. Persistence was calculated as the days between the index date and last day with the index medication on hand, based on the end of the last days supply or the end of follow-up (i.e., 365 days), whichever occurred first. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate confounder-adjusted differences between the groups for adherence and persistence. RESULTS: The final cohort included 9,019 patients (DPP-4 inhibitors: 7,002; pioglitazone: 2,017). In the adjusted analysis, DPP-4 inhibitor users demonstrated a 1.41 (95% CI = 1.25-1.59) higher odds of being adherent compared with pioglitazone users. Overall adjusted HR for persistence was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.69-0.79), which favored DPP-4 inhibitors compared with pioglitazone. Relative to 2010, persistence with pioglitazone decreased in 2011-2012 and then increased in 2013-2014. In the subgroup analysis, DPP-4 inhibitors first had lower (2010: OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.70-0.87; 2011-2012: OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.54-0.66) and then similar (2013-2014: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.88-1.19) hazards of nonpersistence compared with pioglitazone. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with T2DM and nondialysis CKD, the use of DPP-4 inhibitors was associated with better adherence compared with pioglitazone. However, following the approval of generic pioglitazone and associated lower cost sharing after 2012, the magnitude of difference in adherence between the medication classes reduced. Similarly, safety warnings in 2011 and approval of generic products in 2012 may have affected pioglitazone persistence, leading to first higher and then similar hazards for nonpersistence with pioglitazone as compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. These shifts in the results for pioglitazone warrant further investigation and close monitoring of the population initiating this medication. DISCLOSURES: No funding was received for this study. The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. An abstract for this study was presented as a podium presentation at the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) 2019 Annual Meeting; May 18-22, 2019; New Orleans, LA.

Older Medicare Beneficiaries Frequently Continue Medications with Limited Benefit Following Hospice Admission.

BACKGROUND: The use of medications not relieving symptoms or maximizing quality of life should be minimized following hospice enrollment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the frequency of and predictive factors for continuation of medications with limited benefit after hospice admission among those admitted for cancer- and non-cancer-related causes. DESIGN: Cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare linked database. PATIENTS: Medicare Part D-enrolled beneficiaries 66 years and older who were admitted to and died under hospice care between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2013 (N = 70,035). MAIN MEASURES: Patients were followed from hospice enrollment through death for Part D dispensing of limited benefit medications (LBMs) they had used in the 6 months prior to hospice admission, including anti-hyperlipidemics, anti-hypertensives, oral anti-diabetics, anti-platelets, anti-dementia medications, anti-osteoporotic medications, and proton pump inhibitors. The proportion of patients continuing an LBM after hospice admission was evaluated. Adjusted relative risks (RRs) were estimated for factors associated with LBM continuation. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 29.8% and 30.5% of patients admitted to hospice for a cancer- and non-cancer-related cause, respectively, continued at least one LBM after hospice admission. Anti-dementia medications were continued most frequently (29.3%) while anti-osteoporotic medications were continued least often (14.1%). Compared to home hospice, LBM continuation was greater in hospice patients residing in skilled nursing (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20-1.29), non-skilled nursing (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.25-1.32), and assisted living facilities (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.24-1.32). Patients with hospice stays ≥ 180 days were more likely to continue at least one LBM compared to those with stays of 1 week or less (RR 13.11, 95% CI 12.25-14.02). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of Medicare hospice beneficiaries continued to receive LBMs following hospice enrollment. Providers should evaluate the necessity of continuing non-palliative medications at the end of life through a careful, patient-centric consideration of their potential risks and benefits.

Use of Nonpalliative Medications Following Burdensome Health Care Transitions in Hospice Patients: A Matched Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited benefit medications (LBMs), those medications with questionable benefit at the end of life, are often recommended for discontinuation in hospice patients. Transitions in care are associated with inappropriate prescribing in older and terminally ill populations. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between burdensome health care transitions and subsequent receipt of LBMs in older hospice patients. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort analysis of patients admitted to hospice between 2008 and 2013 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. The prevalence of post-health care transition LBM use was assessed. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated for the association between transitions and subsequent receipt of LBMs. RESULTS: In total, 17.9% of 7064 hospice patients received at least 1 LBM following their first burdensome health care transition. Posttransition continuation of a medication class used before hospice admission was most common for antidementia medications (14.2%) and antihypertensives (11.2%). Transitions were associated with a 33% increase in the risk of receiving at least 1 LBM [IRR, 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25-1.42], increasing to 56% when evaluating only hospitalization transitions (IRR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.39-1.76). Medication classes more likely to be dispensed after a transition included antihyperlipidemics (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.70), antihypertensives (IRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40), and proton-pump inhibitors (IRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.20-1.63). CONCLUSIONS: Burdensome health care transitions were associated with the receipt of nonpalliative medications in older hospice patients. Interventions aimed at improving provider communication and reducing fragmentation in care may help reduce unnecessary medication use in this vulnerable population.

Myelodysplastic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia after receipt of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors in older patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), which are used for the prevention of complications from chemotherapy-related neutropenia, are linked to the risk of developing second primary myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The objective of this study was to examine the correlation between using a specific G-CSF agent and the risk of MDS/AML among older patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of adults aged >65 years who were diagnosed with first primary NHL between 2001 and 2011. With data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare-linked database, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the risk of MDS/AML associated with the receipt of G-CSF(filgrastim and pegfilgrastim) in Cox proportional-hazards models, which were stratified according to treatment accounting for confounding by indication. RESULTS: Among 18,245 patients with NHL patients who had a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 56% received chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy, and G-CSF was most commonly used in those who received rituximab plus multiple chemotherapy regimens (77%). Subsequent MDS/AML diagnoses were identified in 666 patients (3.7%). A modest increased risk of MDS/AML was observed with the receipt of G-CSF (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.62) and a trend was observed with increasing doses (Ptrend < .01). When specific agents were analyzed, an increased risk of MDS/AML was consistently observed with filgrastim (≥10 doses: HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.25-2.23), but not with pegfilgrastim (≥10 + doses: HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.84-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: A higher of MDS/AML was observed in patients with NHL risk among those who received G-CSF that was specific to the use of filgrastim (≥10 doses), but not pegfilgrastim. Neutropenia prophylaxis is an essential component of highly effective NHL treatment regimens. The differential risk related to the types of G-CSF agents used warrants further study given their increasing use and newly available, US Food and Drug Administration-approved, biosimilar products.

Parallel Valuation: A Direct Comparison of EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L Societal Value Sets.

OBJECTIVE: To compare and contrast EQ-5D-5L (5L) and EQ-5D-3L (3L) health state values derived from a common sample. METHODS: Data from the 2017 US EQ-5D valuation study were analyzed. Value sets were estimated with random-effects linear regression based on composite time trade-off (cTTO) valuations for 3L and 5L health states with 2 approaches to model specification: main effects only and additional N3/N45 terms. Properties of the descriptive system and value set characteristics were compared by examining distributions of predicted index scores, ceiling effects, and single-level transition values from adjacent corner health states. Mean transition values were calculated for all predicted 3L and 5L health states and plotted against baseline index scores. RESULTS: A total of 1062 respondents were included in the analysis. The observed mean cTTO values for the worst possible 3L and 5L health states were -0.423 and -0.343, respectively. The range of scale was larger with the 3L, compared to the 5L, for both main effects and N term models. Values for the mildest 5L health states (range, 0.857-0.924) were similar to 11111 for the 3L. Parameter estimates for matched dimension levels differed by <|0.07| except for the most severe level of Mobility. For the main effects model, 3L mean transition values were greater for more severe baseline 3L index scores, whereas 5L mean transition values remained constant irrespective of the baseline index score. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the 3L, the 5L exhibited a lower ceiling effect and improved measurement properties. There was a larger range of scale for the 3L compared to 5L; however, this difference was driven by differences in preference for the most severe level of problems in Mobility.

Comparison of 6-Month Costs Between Oral Antiplatelet Agents Following Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), newer antiplatelet agents prasugrel and ticagrelor have lower rates of cardiovascular events when compared with clopidogrel. However, it is unclear whether there are differences in economic outcomes when comparing these agents in ACS-PCI patients. OBJECTIVE: To assess aggregated costs and medical resource utilization among ACS-PCI patients prescribed prasugrel, ticagrelor, or generic clopidogrel, using a large commercial insurance claims database. METHODS: Costs attributable to any medical and pharmacy service and resource utilization including number of admissions, length of hospital stay, emergency room visits, and office visits over the 180-day postdischarge period were compared. All-cause and cardiovascular health care costs and resource utilization were separately analyzed for patients enrolled in the data over the continuous follow-up (CFU) period, and for patients continuously taking their initial treatment for 6 months (CTX). Potential confounders collected over a 6-month baseline assessment period were controlled for, using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Over the 180-day follow-up, prasugrel and ticagrelor patients underwent fewer admissions (rate ratio [RR] = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.80-0.95) from CFU and RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.71-0.89 from CTX) compared with clopidogrel patients. The newer agent cohort incurred more overall health care costs than the generic clopidogrel group, with added costs of $957 (95% CI = $236-$1,725) in the CFU group and $1,122 (95% CI = $455-$1,865) in the CTX group, which were smaller than the increase in all-cause outpatient pharmacy costs associated with the newer agents versus clopidogrel (CFU: $1,175, 95% CI = $1,079-$1,278 and CTX: $1,360, 95% CI = $1,256-$1,487). Overall, there was no statistically significant difference in the economic outcomes associated with prasugrel and ticagrelor. There were, however, significant correlations between all-cause and cardiovascular-related outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The higher price of prasugrel and ticagrelor was partially offset by a decrease in hospital admission compared with generic clopidogrel over a 6-month postdischarge period. Aggregated medical costs and resource utilization were not significantly different between prasugrel and ticagrelor patients. DISCLOSURES: No funding was received for this study. DiDomenico has received an honorarium from Amgen for preparation of a heart failure drug monograph for Pharmacy Practice News and serves as an advisory board member for a heart failure program at Otsuka America Pharmaceuticals and for Novartis Pharmaceuticals. Touchette has received unrestricted grant funding from Cardinal Health, Sunovion Pharmaceuticals, and Takeda and has served as a consultant to and director of the American College of Clinical Pharmacy Practice-Based Research Network on a study funded by Pfizer. Walton has served as a paid consultant for Bristol-Myers Squibb, Baxter, Merck, Genentech, Primus, Takeda, and Abbott. The other authors have nothing to disclose.

A Review of the Utility and Cost Effectiveness of Monitoring Fractional Exhaled Nitric Oxide (FeNO) in Asthma Management.

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease affecting nearly 8% of the U.S. POPULATION: It results in substantially higher direct and indirect costs as well as an increased mortality risk and poorer quality of life, particularly among patients with difficult-to-control asthma. While several physiologic tests, including spirometry, are typically used to diagnose and characterize asthma, they do not provide the sensitivity and specificity required to accurately reflect the underlying heterogeneous inflammatory pathways. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is a validated, noninvasive biomarker for T2-driven (i.e., allergic) airway inflammation that correlates with sputum eosinophils at or greater than 3% across various asthma phenotypes. Its use as a biomarker in asthma is well supported by numerous peer-reviewed articles and guidelines. There is also evidence that its use in clinical settings for patients with uncontrolled asthma is cost effective, given its ability to improve the accurate diagnosis of asthma, monitor treatment response, optimize inhaled corticosteroid dosing, and identify patient nonadherence. It may also have a role in identifying patients who are possible candidates for treatment with biologics.

Medicare Part D Use of Older Medicare Beneficiaries Admitted to Hospice.

OBJECTIVES: To describe medications that older hospice beneficiaries receive through Medicare Part D and assess patterns in Part D use for individuals admitted to hospice for cancer and noncancer causes. DESIGN: Descriptive cohort analysis using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. SETTING: U.S. hospice programs PARTICIPANTS: Part D-enrolled Medicare beneficiaries aged 66 and older who were admitted to hospice and died while under hospice care between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2013 (N = 88,957). MEASUREMENTS: We determined the 25 most commonly dispensed medications and the prevalence of at least 1 dispensing through Part D after hospice admission. The prevalence and temporal trends in receipt of opioid analgesics and several preventative medication classes are described. RESULTS: More than half of individuals admitted to hospice for cancer (53.5%) and noncancer causes (52.9%) received at least 1 medication through Part D after hospice admission. The prevalence of receiving at least 1 Part D medication after admission was greatest in individuals admitted for debility or failure to thrive (63.5%) and dementia (61.5%) and lowest in those admitted for ischemic stroke (35.4%) and renal disease (36.0%). Beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, proton pump inhibitors, and statins were among the most common preventative drug classes received overall, although prevalence differed according to admission diagnosis. Nearly 1 in 6 individuals received opioids through Part D after admission, with prevalence steadily decreasing over the study period. CONCLUSION: Receipt of medications through Medicare Part D after hospice admission is common, particularly for preventative medications, and varies according to admission diagnosis. Further research aimed at better understanding individual-, provider-, and healthcare system-level contributors to nonpalliative medication use in the hospice population is warranted.

Predicting Acute Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: With increasing health care costs that have outpaced those of other industries, payers of health care are moving from a fee-for-service payment model to one in which reimbursement is tied to outcomes. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease where this payment model has been implemented by some payers, and COPD exacerbations are a quality metric that is used. Under an outcomes-based payment model, it is important for health systems to be able to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes so that they can target interventions to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate predictive models that could be used to identify patients at high risk for COPD exacerbations. METHODS: This study was retrospective and observational and included COPD patients treated with a bronchodilator-based combination therapy. We used health insurance claims data to obtain demographics, enrollment information, comorbidities, medication use, and health care resource utilization for each patient over a 6-month baseline period. Exacerbations were examined over a 6-month outcome period and included inpatient (primary discharge diagnosis for COPD), outpatient, and emergency department (outpatient/emergency department visits with a COPD diagnosis plus an acute prescription for an antibiotic or corticosteroid within 5 days) exacerbations. The cohort was split into training (75%) and validation (25%) sets. Within the training cohort, stepwise logistic regression models were created to evaluate risk of exacerbations based on factors measured during the baseline period. Models were evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. The base model included all confounding or effect modifier covariates. Several other models were explored using different sets of observations and variables to determine the best predictive model. RESULTS: There were 478,772 patients included in the analytic sample, of which 40.5% had exacerbations during the outcome period. Patients with exacerbations had slightly more comorbidities, medication use, and health care resource utilization compared with patients without exacerbations. In the base model, sensitivity was 41.6% and specificity was 85.5%. Positive and negative predictive values were 66.2% and 68.2%, respectively. Other models that were evaluated resulted in similar test characteristics as the base model. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we were not able to predict COPD exacerbations with a high level of accuracy using health insurance claims data from COPD patients treated with bronchodilator-based combination therapy. Future studies should be done to explore predictive models for exacerbations. DISCLOSURES: No outside funding supported this study. Samp is now employed by, and owns stock in, AbbVie. The other authors have nothing to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Joo and Pickard, along with the other authors. Samp and Lee performed the data analysis, with assistance from the other authors. Samp wrote the manuscript, which was revised by Schumock and Calip, along with the other authors.

Claims-based risk model for first severe COPD exacerbation.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a predictive model for first severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation using health insurance claims data and to validate the risk measure of controller medication to total COPD treatment (controller and rescue) ratio (CTR). STUDY DESIGN: A predictive model was developed and validated in 2 managed care databases: Truven Health MarketScan database and Reliant Medical Group database. This secondary analysis assessed risk factors, including CTR, during the baseline period (Year 1) to predict risk of severe exacerbation in the at-risk period (Year 2). METHODS: Patients with COPD who were 40 years or older and who had at least 1 COPD medication dispensed during the year following COPD diagnosis were included. Subjects with severe exacerbations in the baseline year were excluded. Risk factors in the baseline period were included as potential predictors in multivariate analysis. Performance was evaluated using C-statistics. RESULTS: The analysis included 223,824 patients. The greatest risk factors for first severe exacerbation were advanced age, chronic oxygen therapy usage, COPD diagnosis type, dispensing of 4 or more canisters of rescue medication, and having 2 or more moderate exacerbations. A CTR of 0.3 or greater was associated with a 14% lower risk of severe exacerbation. The model performed well with C-statistics, ranging from 0.711 to 0.714. CONCLUSIONS: This claims-based risk model can predict the likelihood of first severe COPD exacerbation. The CTR could also potentially be used to target populations at greatest risk for severe exacerbations. This could be relevant for providers and payers in approaches to prevent severe exacerbations and reduce costs.

Improving the Affordability of Prescription Medications for People with Chronic Respiratory Disease. An Official American Thoracic Society Policy Statement.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence indicates that out-of-pocket costs for prescription medications, particularly among low- and middle-income patients with chronic diseases, are imposing financial burden, reducing medication adherence, and worsening health outcomes. This problem is exacerbated by a paucity of generic alternatives for prevalent lung diseases, such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as high-cost medicines for rare diseases, such as cystic fibrosis. Affordability and access challenges are especially salient in the United States, as citizens of many other countries pay lower prices for and have greater access to prescription medications. METHODS: The American Thoracic Society convened a multidisciplinary committee comprising experts in health policy pharmacoeconomics, behavioral sciences, and clinical care, along with individuals providing industry and patient perspectives. The report and its recommendation were iteratively developed over a year of in-person, telephonic, and electronic deliberation. RESULTS: The committee unanimously recommended the establishment of a publicly funded, politically independent, impartial entity to systematically draft evidence-based pharmaceutical policy recommendations. The goal of this entity would be to generate evidence and action steps to ensure people have equitable and affordable access to prescription medications, to maximize the value of public and private pharmaceutical expenditures on health, to support novel drug development within a market-based economy, and to preserve clinician and patient choice regarding personalized treatment. An immediate priority is to examine the evidence and make recommendations regarding the need to have essential medicines with established clinical benefit from each drug class in all Tier 1 formularies and propose recommendations to reduce barriers to timely generic drug availability. CONCLUSIONS: By making explicit, evidence-based recommendations, the entity can support the establishment of coherent national policies that expand access to affordable medications, improve the health of patients with chronic disease, and optimize the use of public and private resources.

Patient Experience-based Value Sets: Are They Stable?

BACKGROUND: Although societal preference weights are desirable to inform resource-allocation decision-making, patient experienced health state-based value sets can be useful for clinical decision-making, but context may matter. OBJECTIVE: To estimate EQ-5D value sets using visual analog scale (VAS) ratings for patients undergoing knee replacement surgery and compare the estimates before and after surgery. METHODS: We used the Patient Reported Outcome Measures data collected by the UK National Health Service on patients undergoing knee replacement from 2009 to 2012. Generalized least squares regression models were used to derive value sets based on the EQ-5D-3 level using a development sample before and after surgery, and model performance was examined using a validation sample. RESULTS: A total of 90,450 preoperative and postoperative valuations were included. For preoperative valuations, the largest decrement in VAS values was associated with the dimension of anxiety/depression, followed by self-care, mobility, usual activities, and pain/discomfort. However, pain/discomfort had a greater impact on VAS value decrement in postoperative valuations. Compared with preoperative health problems, postsurgical health problems were associated with larger value decrements, with significant differences in several levels and dimensions, including level 2 of mobility, level 2/3 of usual activities, level 3 of pain/discomfort, and level 3 of anxiety/depression. Similar results were observed across subgroups stratified by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest patient experience-based value sets are not stable (ie, context such as timing matters). However, the knowledge that lower values are assigned to health states postsurgery compared with presurgery may be useful for the patient-doctor decision-making process.

The societal cost of heroin use disorder in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Heroin use in the United States has reached epidemic proportions. The objective of this paper is to estimate the annual societal cost of heroin use disorder in the United States in 2015 US dollars. METHODS: An analytic model was created that included incarceration and crime; treatment for heroin use disorder; chronic infectious diseases (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, and Tuberculosis) and their treatments; treatment of neonatal abstinence syndrome; lost productivity; and death by heroin overdose. RESULTS: Using literature-based estimates to populate the model, the cost of heroin use disorder was estimated to be $51.2 billion in 2015 US dollars ($50,799 per heroin user). One-way sensitivity analyses showed that overall cost estimates were sensitive to the number of heroin users, cost of HCV treatment, and cost of incarcerating heroin users. CONCLUSION: The annual cost of heroin use disorder to society in the United States emphasizes the need for sustained investment in healthcare and non-healthcare related strategies that reduce the likelihood of abuse and provide care and support for users to overcome the disorder.

Comparison of Health Care Utilization and Costs for Patients with Asthma by Severity and Health Insurance in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: To compare health care utilization and cost by asthma severity and type of health insurance in Thailand. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using an electronic database was conducted in patients with asthma. Patients who were diagnosed with asthma from 2009 to 2011, had at least two subsequent health care encounters for asthma during the first six months after the first asthma diagnosis, and had at least 90 days of follow-up were included. The primary outcome was direct health care costs of inpatient and outpatient care. We compared outcomes between groups on the basis of a proxy of severity (mild/moderate severe asthma vs. high severe asthma) and type of health insurance using a multivariable generalized linear model. Covariates such as Patients' demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and concurrent medications were included in the model. RESULTS: Among 1982 patients included, the average age was 40.3 ± 24.0 years, with 60.7% being males. A total of 1936 patients had mild/moderate severe asthma, whereas 46 patients had high severe asthma. There were 1293 patients under the Universal Coverage Scheme, 264 patients under Social Security Insurance, and 626 patients under the Civil Servant Medical Benefit Scheme (CSMBS). The average annual cost per patient was $598 ± $871. In adjusted analyses, the health care cost of patients with high severe asthma was $71 higher than that of patients with mild/moderate severe asthma (95% confidence interval $-131 to $274). The cost of patients under the CSMBS was $110 (95% confidence interval $29-$191) higher than that of patients under Universal Coverage Scheme. CONCLUSIONS: Health care costs of patients with asthma were substantial and were higher in patients with high severe asthma and patients under the CSMBS.

Top-down Versus Step-up Prescribing Strategies for Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitors in Children and Young Adults with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitor (TNFI) therapy for children and young adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is not well described. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of children and young adults (≤24 yr) newly diagnosed with IBD using health insurance claims from 2009 to 2013. The conventional "step-up" approach was defined as TNFI initiation >30 days after first IBD medication prescription, whereas the "top-down" approach was defined as new TNFI prescription within 30 days of first IBD medication prescription. Switching rates, time to initiation, discontinuation, and adherence to TNFIs were compared between the 2 strategies. RESULTS: A total of 11,962 IBD patients were identified. Among 3300 TNFI users, 1298 (39.3%) were treated with the top-down approach, whereas 2002 (60.7%) were treated with the step-up approach. Top-down approach use increased from 31.4% to 49.8% during the 5-year period, and under this approach, most patients were treated with TNFIs alone. Time to TNFI initiation was shorter for patients diagnosed in more recent years. Patients treated with the top-down strategy had lower rates of corticosteroid use (32.5% versus 94.2%) compared with step-up treatment but presented a higher rate of TNFI discontinuation. The 2 strategies both exhibited high adherence (mean proportion of days covered: 83.7%-95.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Early TNFI initiation increased over time for children and young adults with IBD and was related to lower rates of corticosteroid use compared with the conventional approach. However, the higher rate of TNFI discontinuation under the top-down approach requires further examination.