A new ground level neutron monitor for space weather assessment.

We report on a new ground-level neutron monitor design for studying cosmic rays and fluxes of solar energetic particles at the Earth's surface. The first-of-its-kind instrument, named the NM-2023 after the year it was standardised and following convention, will be installed at a United Kingdom Meteorological Office observatory (expected completion mid 2024) and will reintroduce such monitoring in the UK for the first time since ca. 1984. Monte Carlo radiation transport code is used for the development and application of parameterised models to investigate alternative neutron detectors, their location and bulk material geometry in a realistic cosmic ray neutron field. Benchmarked against a model of the current and most widespread design standardised in 1964 (the NM-64), two main parameterisation studies are conducted; a simplified standard model and a concept slab parameterisation. We show that the NM-64 standard is well optimised for the intended large-diameter boron trifluoride (BF 3 ) proportional counters but not for multiple smaller diameter counters. The new design (based on a novel slab arrangement) produces comparable counting efficiencies to an NM-64 with six BF 3 counters and has the added advantage of being more compact, lower cost and avoids the use of highly toxic BF 3 .

A comprehensive satellite-based assessment across the Pacific Arctic Distributed Biological Observatory shows widespread late-season sea surface warming and sea ice declines with significant influences on primary productivity.

Massive declines in sea ice cover and widespread warming seawaters across the Pacific Arctic region over the past several decades have resulted in profound shifts in marine ecosystems that have cascaded throughout all trophic levels. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) provides sampling infrastructure for a latitudinal gradient of biological "hotspot" regions across the Pacific Arctic region, with eight sites spanning the northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. The purpose of this study is two-fold: (a) to provide an assessment of satellite-based environmental variables for the eight DBO sites (including sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration, annual sea ice persistence and the timing of sea ice breakup/formation, chlorophyll-a concentrations, primary productivity, and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR)) as well as their trends across the 2003-2020 time period; and (b) to assess the importance of sea ice presence/open water for influencing primary productivity across the region and for the eight DBO sites in particular. While we observe significant trends in SST, sea ice, and chlorophyll-a/primary productivity throughout the year, the most significant and synoptic trends for the DBO sites have been those during late summer and autumn (warming SST during October/November, later shifts in the timing of sea ice formation, and increases in chlorophyll-a/primary productivity during August/September). Those DBO sites where significant increases in annual primary productivity over the 2003-2020 time period have been observed include DBO1 in the Bering Sea (37.7 g C/m2/year/decade), DBO3 in the Chukchi Sea (48.0 g C/m2/year/decade), and DBO8 in the Beaufort Sea (38.8 g C/m2/year/decade). The length of the open water season explains the variance of annual primary productivity most strongly for sites DBO3 (74%), DBO4 in the Chukchi Sea (79%), and DBO6 in the Beaufort Sea (78%), with DBO3 influenced most strongly with each day of additional increased open water (3.8 g C/m2/year per day). These synoptic satellite-based observations across the suite of DBO sites will provide the legacy groundwork necessary to track additional and inevitable future physical and biological change across the region in response to ongoing climate warming.

Can growth in dichorionic twins be monitored with individualized growth assessment?

OBJECTIVE: To characterize fetal growth in dichorionic twins using individualized growth assessment (IGA), a method based on individual growth potential estimates. METHODS: This secondary analysis included 286 fetuses/neonates from 143 dichorionic twin pregnancies that were part of the ESPRiT (Evaluation of Sonographic Predictors of Restricted Growth in Twins) study. The sample was subcategorized according to birth weight into appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) (n = 243) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) (n = 43) cohorts. Serial biometric scans evaluating biparietal diameter, head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference, femur diaphysis length and estimated weight at 2-week intervals were used to evaluate fetal growth, while measurements of birth weight, crown-heel length and HC determined neonatal growth outcome. Six abnormalities (hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, periventricular leukomalacia, necrotizing enterocolitis, respiratory distress, sepsis and death) constituted the evaluated adverse neonatal outcomes (ANO). IGA was used to: evaluate differences in second-trimester growth velocities between singletons (from a published dataset) and dichorionic twins (138 AGA twins with normal third-trimester growth); describe the degree to which actual third-trimester growth in twins followed expected growth (111 AGA twins, normal fetal growth and neonatal growth outcomes); determine if the fetal growth pathology score 1 (-FGPS1) could detect, quantify and classify twin growth pathology (224 AGA, 42 SGA); and assess the relationship between -FGPS1 and ANO (24 SGA twins with progressive growth restriction confirmed by abnormal neonatal growth outcome). RESULTS: The differences in second-trimester growth velocity between singletons and twins (means and variances) were small and not statistically significant. Percent deviations from the expected third-trimester size trajectories were within the 95% reference ranges derived from singletons at 95.7% (1677/1752) of timepoints studied. Abnormal growth was detected in 37.9% of AGA twins and 85.7% of SGA twins. Growth restriction was more heterogeneous in AGA twins, while in SGA twins progressive growth restriction was the principal type (66.7%). -FGPS1 patterns previously defined in singletons classified 97.5% of pathological twin cases. In our most severe form of growth restriction (progressive), there were only three (12.5%) ANOs related to growth abnormalities, all in cases with -FGPS1 values more negative than -2.0%. Using these criteria, the frequency of ANO was 33%. CONCLUSIONS: With respect to growth, dichorionic twins can be considered as two singletons in the same uterus. Normally growing dichorionic twins have the same growth potential as singletons with normal growth outcome. These twins also follow expected third-trimester growth trajectories with the same precision as do singletons. Third-trimester growth pathology can be detected, quantified and classified using -FGPS1 as in singletons. Limited evidence of a relationship between fetal growth abnormalities and adverse neonatal outcome was found. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters: A statewide assessment, associated sources, and land-use relations.

The objectives of this study are to identify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters, corresponding associations with potential sources of PFAS contamination (PSOC) and other parameters, and compare raw surface water concentrations to human and ecological benchmarks. Surface water samples from 161 streams were collected in September 2019 and were analyzed for 33 target PFAS and water chemistry. Land use and physical attributes in upstream catchments and geospatial counts of PSOC in local catchments are summarized. The hydrologic yield of the sum of 33 PFAS (∑PFAS) for each stream was computed by normalizing each site's load by the drainage area of the upstream catchment. Utilizing conditional inference tree analysis, the percentage of development (>7.58 %) was identified as a primary driver of the ∑PFAS hydrologic yields. When percentage of development was removed from analysis, ∑PFAS yields were closely related to surface water chemistry associated with landscape alteration (e.g., development or agricultural cropland), such as concentrations of total nitrogen, chloride, and ammonia, but also to count of water pollution control facilities (agricultural, industrial, stormwater, and/or municipal waste pollution abatement facilities). In oil and gas development regions, ∑PFAS yields were associated with combined sewage outfalls. Sites surrounded by ≥2 electronic manufacturing facilities had elevated ∑PFAS yields (median = 241 ng/s/km2). Study results are critical to guide future research, regulatory policy, best practices that will mitigate PFAS contamination, and the communication of human health and ecological risks associated with PFAS exposure from surface waters.

Building an Academic Transgender Medicine Center of Excellence: The 5-Year Johns Hopkins Experience.

Gender-affirming care for transgender and gender diverse (TGD) individuals is a multidisciplinary endeavor that requires organized efforts of many specialized practitioners. TGD individuals experience many health care barriers, including the scarcity of multidisciplinary teams formed to coordinate and deliver complex care in an efficient and affirming way. The Johns Hopkins Center for Transgender Health was founded in 2017 with the mission of decreasing health disparities and improving the health of the TGD community. The authors present their experience building the center around a service line model in which patients have 1 point of contact, they are tracked throughout the care process, and the multidepartmental practitioners involved in their care are aligned. This model allowed for a patient-centered experience in which all involved disciplines were seamlessly integrated and the patient could navigate easily among them. With the structure and mission in place, the next challenge was to develop an infrastructure for culturally competent care. Through competency training and adjustment of systems-based logistics, measures were put in place to prevent traumatic experiences, such as misgendering, use of culturally inappropriate vocabulary, and use of incorrect names. Partnerships among colleagues in the fields of plastic surgery, urology, gynecology, otolaryngology, anesthesia, psychiatry/mental health, internal medicine, endocrinology, fertility, nursing, social work, speech therapy, and pediatrics/adolescent care were necessary to provide the appropriate breadth of services to care for TGD patients. Since its inception, the center has seen steady and continual growth, with more than 2,800 patients in its first 5 years. By sharing their experience in creating and developing a center of excellence, the authors hope to provide a blueprint for others to expand health care quality and access for TGD individuals.

Mapping expanded prostate cancer index composite to EQ5D utilities to inform economic evaluations in prostate cancer: Secondary analysis of NRG/RTOG 0415.

PURPOSE: The Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) is the most commonly used patient reported outcome (PRO) tool in prostate cancer (PC) clinical trials, but health utilities associated with the different health states assessed with this tool are unknown, limiting our ability to perform cost-utility analyses. This study aimed to map EPIC tool to EuroQoL-5D-3L (EQ5D) to generate EQ5D health utilities. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective, randomized non-inferiority clinical trial, conducted between 04/2006 and 12/2009 at cancer centers across the United States, Canada, and Switzerland. Eligible patients included men >18 years with a known diagnosis of low-risk PC. Patient HRQoL data were collected using EPIC and health utilities were obtained using EQ5D. Data were divided into an estimation sample (n = 765, 70%) and a validation sample (n = 327, 30%). The mapping algorithms that capture the relationship between the instruments were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and two-part models. Five-fold cross-validation (in-sample) was used to compare the predictive performance of the estimated models. Final models were selected based on root mean square error (RMSE). RESULTS: A total of 565 patients in the estimation sample had complete information on both EPIC and EQ5D questionnaires at baseline. Mean observed EQ5D utility was 0.90±0.13 (range: 0.28-1) with 55% of patients in full health. OLS models outperformed their counterpart Tobit and two-part models for all pre-determined model specifications. The best model fit was: "EQ5D utility = 0.248541 + 0.000748*(Urinary Function) + 0.001134*(Urinary Bother) + 0.000968*(Hormonal Function) + 0.004404*(Hormonal Bother)- 0.376487*(Zubrod) + 0.003562*(Urinary Function*Zubrod)"; RMSE was 0.10462. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to identify a comprehensive set of mapping algorithms to generate EQ5D utilities from EPIC domain/ sub-domain scores. The study results will help estimate quality-adjusted life-years in PC economic evaluations.

Risk Assessment of Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh Using a Spatiotemporal Network Model and Climate Data.

Vector-borne disease risk assessment is crucial to optimize surveillance, preventative measures (vector control), and resource allocation (medical supplies). High arthropod abundance and host interaction strongly correlate to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Increasing host density and movement increases the possibility of local and long-distance pathogen transmission. Therefore, we developed a risk-assessment framework using climate (average temperature and rainfall) and host demographic (host density and movement) data, particularly suitable for regions with unreported or underreported incidence data. This framework consisted of a spatiotemporal network-based approach coupled with a compartmental disease model and nonhomogeneous Gillespie algorithm. The correlation of climate data with vector abundance and host-vector interactions is expressed as vectorial capacity-a parameter that governs the spreading of infection from an infected host to a susceptible one via vectors. As an example, the framework is applied for dengue in Bangladesh. Vectorial capacity is inferred for each week throughout a year using average monthly temperature and rainfall data. Long-distance pathogen transmission is expressed with human movement data in the spatiotemporal network. We have identified the spatiotemporal suitability of dengue spreading in Bangladesh as well as the significant-incidence window and peak-incidence period. Analysis of yearly dengue data variation suggests the possibility of a significant outbreak with a new serotype introduction. The outcome of the framework comprised spatiotemporal suitability maps and probabilistic risk maps for spatial infection spreading. This framework is capable of vector-borne disease risk assessment without historical incidence data and can be a useful tool for preparedness with accurate human movement data.

An optomechanogram for assessment of the structural and mechanical properties of tissues.

The structural and mechanical properties of tissue and the interplay between them play a critical role in tissue function. We introduce the optomechanogram, a combined quantitative and qualitative visualization of spatially co-registered measurements of the microstructural and micromechanical properties of any tissue. Our approach relies on the co-registration of two independent platforms, second-harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy for quantitative assessment of 3D collagen-fiber microstructural organization, and nanoindentation (NI) for local micromechanical properties. We experimentally validate our method by applying to uterine cervix tissue, which exhibits structural and mechanical complexity. We find statistically significant agreement between the micromechanical and microstructural data, and confirm that the distinct tissue regions are distinguishable using either the SHG or NI measurements. Our method could potentially be used for research in pregnancy maintenance, mechanobiological studies of tissues and their constitutive modeling and more generally for the optomechanical metrology of materials.

Prenatal hepatitis B screening, and hepatitis B burden among children, in Ontario: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Ontario is 1 of 5 provinces that immunize adolescents for hepatitis B virus (HBV), despite the World Health Organization recommendation for universal birth dose vaccination. One rationale for not vaccinating at birth is that universal prenatal screening and related interventions prevent vertical transmission. The aims of our study were to evaluate the uptake and epidemiology of prenatal HBV screening, and to determine the number of children in Ontario with a diagnosis of HBV before adolescent vaccination. METHODS: We extracted data from ICES, Public Health Ontario and Better Outcomes & Registry Network (BORN) Ontario databases. We assessed prenatal screening uptake and prevalence of prenatal hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) from 2012 to 2016, as well as subsequent hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) and HBV DNA testing and percent positivity. We used age and region to subcategorize the results. In a separate unlinked analysis, we evaluated the number of children positive for HBV aged 0-11 years who were born in Ontario from 2003 to 2013. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2016, 93% of pregnant women were screened for HBV, with an HBsAg prevalence of 0.6%. Prevalence of HBsAg increased with age, peaking at older than 45 years at 3%. North Toronto had the highest overall prevalence of 1.5%, whereas northern Ontario had the lowest. Of women who were HBsAg positive, HBeAg and HBV DNA tests were subsequently ordered in 13% and 38%, respectively. Of children born in Ontario between 2003 and 2013, 139 of 23 759 tested positive for HBV. INTERPRETATION: Prenatal HBV screening is not universal and subsequent evaluation is poor, limiting optimal intervention and possibly contributing to some Ontario-born children being given a diagnosis of HBV before age 12 years. These findings underscore the limitations of the province's adolescent vaccination strategy.

Overview of rapid mitigating strategies in Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This article describes the rapid mitigation strategies in addressing the rising number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Singapore. Learning from the severe acute respiratory syndrome experience in 2003, early preparation started in January 2020 when Wuhan was declared as the epicentre of the epidemic. The government had constructed a three-pronged approach which includes travel, healthcare and community measures to curb the spread of COVID-19.

ISUOG Practice Guidelines: ultrasound assessment of fetal biometry and growth.

INTRODUCTION These Guidelines aim to describe appropriate assessment of fetal biometry and diagnosis of fetal growth disorders. These disorders consist mainly of fetal growth restriction (FGR), also referred to as intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and often associated with small­for­gestational age (SGA), and large­for­gestational age (LGA), which may lead to fetal macrosomia; both have been associated with a variety of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. Screening for, and adequate management of, fetal growth abnormalities are essential components of antenatal care, and fetal ultrasound plays a key role in assessment of these conditions. The fetal biometric parameters measured most commonly are biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur diaphysis length (FL). These biometric measurements can be used to estimate fetal weight (EFW) using various different formulae1. It is important to differentiate between the concept of fetal size at a given timepoint and fetal growth, the latter being a dynamic process, the assessment of which requires at least two ultrasound scans separated in time. Maternal history and symptoms, amniotic fluid assessment and Doppler velocimetry can provide additional information that may be used to identify fetuses at risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Accurate estimation of gestational age is a prerequisite for determining whether fetal size is appropriate­for­gestational age (AGA). Except for pregnancies arising from assisted reproductive technology, the date of conception cannot be determined precisely. Clinically, most pregnancies are dated by the last menstrual period, though this may sometimes be uncertain or unreliable. Therefore, dating pregnancies by early ultrasound examination at 8­14 weeks, based on measurement of the fetal crown­rump length (CRL), appears to be the most reliable method to establish gestational age. Once the CRL exceeds 84 mm, HC should be used for pregnancy dating2­4. HC, with or without FL, can be used for estimation of gestational age from the mid­trimester if a first­trimester scan is not available and the menstrual history is unreliable. When the expected delivery date has been established by an accurate early scan, subsequent scans should not be used to recalculate the gestational age1. Serial scans can be used to determine if interval growth has been normal. In these Guidelines, we assume that the gestational age is known and has been determined as described above, the pregnancy is singleton and the fetal anatomy is normal. Details of the grades of recommendation used in these Guidelines are given in Appendix 1. Reporting of levels of evidence is not applicable to these Guidelines.

Pautas de ISUOG para la práctica: evaluación ecográfica de la biometría y el crecimiento fetal INTRODUCCIÓN: El objetivo de estas Pautas es describir la evaluación adecuada de la biometría fetal y el diagnóstico de los trastornos del crecimiento fetal. Estos trastornos consisten principalmente en la restricción del crecimiento fetal (RCF), también conocida como restricción del crecimiento intrauterino (RCIU), que a menudo está asociada con un tamaño pequeño para la edad gestacional (PEG) o grande para la edad gestacional (GEG), que pueden dar lugar a la macrosomía fetal; ambos se han asociado con una variedad de resultados maternos y perinatales adversos. La detección y el tratamiento adecuado de las anomalías del crecimiento fetal son componentes esenciales de la atención prenatal, y la ecografía fetal desempeña un papel fundamental en la evaluación de estas afecciones. Los parámetros biométricos fetales medidos con mayor frecuencia son (todas las siglas procedentes del inglés) el diámetro biparietal (BPD), el perímetro cefálico (HC), el perímetro abdominal (AC) y la longitud de la diáfisis del fémur (FL). Estas mediciones biométricas se pueden utilizar para estimar el peso del feto (PEF) mediante fórmulas diferentes1 . Es importante diferenciar entre el concepto de tamaño fetal en un momento dado y el crecimiento fetal en sí, siendo este último un proceso dinámico cuya evaluación requiere al menos dos ecografías separadas en el tiempo. La historia y los síntomas de la madre, la evaluación del líquido amniótico y la velocimetría Doppler pueden proporcionar información adicional que se puede utilizar para identificar los fetos bajo riesgo de resultados adversos del embarazo. La estimación precisa de la edad gestacional es un prerrequisito para determinar si el tamaño del feto es apropiado para la edad gestacional (AEG). Excepto en el caso de los embarazos procedentes de tecnologías de reproducción asistida, la fecha de concepción no se puede determinar con precisión. Clínicamente, la fecha de la mayoría de los embarazos se establece en función del último período menstrual, aunque a veces esto puede ser incierto o poco fiable. Por lo tanto, el fechado de los embarazos mediante ecografía temprana a las 8-14 semanas, mediante la medición de la longitud céfalo-caudal (LCC) fetal, parece ser el método más fiable para establecer la edad gestacional. Una vez que la LCC excede los 84 mm, se debe usar el HC2-4 para establecer la fecha del embarazo. El HC, con o sin FL, se puede utilizar para estimar la edad gestacional a partir de la mitad del primer trimestre si no se dispone de una ecografía del primer trimestre y el historial menstrual no es fiable. Cuando se ha establecido la fecha prevista del parto mediante una exploración temprana precisa, no se deben utilizar exploraciones posteriores para recalcular la edad gestacional1 . Las exploraciones en serie se pueden utilizar para determinar si el intervalo del crecimiento ha sido normal. En estas Pautas se asume que la edad gestacional es conocida y ha sido determinada según lo anterior, que el embarazo es de feto único y que la anatomía fetal es normal. En el Apéndice 1 se detallan los grados de recomendación utilizados en estas Pautas. El informe sobre los niveles de evidencia no es aplicable a estas Pautas.

A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus.

West Nile virus (WNV)-a mosquito-borne arbovirus-entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential-short-range dispersal, 2) power-law-long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction -long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective.

Introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States - A qualitative risk assessment.

The purpose of this risk assessment (RA) was to qualitatively estimate the risk of emergence of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States (US). We followed the framework for RA of emerging vector-borne livestock diseases (de Vos et al. 2011), which consists of a structured questionnaire, whose answers to questions can be delivered in risk categories, descriptive statements, or yes or no type of answers, being supported by the literature. The most likely pathways of introduction of JEV identified were: (a) entry through infected vectors (by aircraft, cargo ships, tires, or wind); (b) import of infected viremic animals; (c) entry of viremic migratory birds; (d) import of infected biological materials; (e) import of infected animal products; (f) entry of infected humans; and (g) import/production of contaminated biological material (e.g., vaccines). From these pathways, the probability of introduction of JEV through infected adult mosquitoes via aircraft was considered very high and via ships/containers was deemed low to moderate. The probability of introduction via other pathways or modes of entry (vector eggs or larvae, hosts, and vaccines) was considered negligible. The probability of transmission of JEV was variable, ranging from low to high (in the presence of both competent vectors and hosts), depending on the area of introduction within the US. Lastly, the probability of establishment of JEV in the continental US was considered negligible. For that reason, we stopped the risk assessment at this point of the framework. This RA provides important information regarding the elements that contribute to the risk associated with the introduction of JEV in the US. This RA also indicates that infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft (and cargo ships) are the most likely pathway of JEV entry and therefore, mitigation strategies should be directed towards this pathway.

A combined experimental-computational approach for spatial protection efficacy assessment of controlled release devices against mosquitoes (Anopheles).

This work describes the use of entomological studies combined with in silico models (computer simulations derived from numerical models) to assess the efficacy of a novel device for controlled release of spatial repellents. Controlled Release Devices (CRDs) were tested with different concentrations of metofluthrin and tested against An. quadrimaculatus mosquitoes using arm-in cage, semi-field, and outdoor studies. Arm-in-cage trials showed an approximate mean values for mosquito knockdown of 40% and mosquito bite reduction of 80% for the optimal metofluthrin formulation for a 15-minute trial. Semi-field outdoor studies showed a mean mortality of a 50% for 24 hour trial and 75% for a 48 hour trial for optimal concentrations. Outdoors studies showed an approximate mean mortality rate of 50% for a 24 hour trial for optimal concentrations. Numerical simulations based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were performed in order to obtain spatial concentration profiles for 24 hour and 48 hour periods. Experimental results were correlated with simulation results in order to obtain a functional model that linked mosquito mortality with the estimated spatial concentration for a given period of time. Such correlation provides a powerful insight in predicting the effectiveness of the CRDs as a vector-control tool. While CRDs represent an alternative to current spatial repellent delivery methods, such as coils, candles, electric repellents, and passive emanators based on impregnated strips, the presented method can be applied to any spatial vector control treatment by correlating entomological endpoints, i.e. mortality, with in-silico simulations to predict overall efficacy. The presented work therefore presents a new methodology for improving design, development and deployment of vector-control tools to reduce transmission of vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue.

Effect of the Bolsa Familia Programme on the outcome of tuberculosis treatment: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Social protection interventions might improve tuberculosis outcomes and could help to control the epidemic in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the independent effect of the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil. METHODS: We prospectively recruited and followed up individuals (aged ≥18 years) who initiated tuberculosis treatment at 42 health-care centres across seven cities in Brazil, between March 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017. Patients were interviewed at health-care centres and information about individual characteristics, socioeconomic status, living conditions, lifestyle, and comorbidities was recorded. Patients were separated into two groups according to BFP beneficiary status: BFP (exposed) or non-BFP (not exposed). Treatment outcome (cure, dropout, death, or development of drug-resistant tuberculosis or treatment failure) was recorded after 6 months of therapy. Pearson's χ2 test and ANOVA were used to compare tuberculosis treatment outcomes between the two groups, and we estimated the propensity score of being a beneficiary of the BFP using a logit model. We used multinomial regression models to evaluate the effect of the BFP on tuberculosis treatment outcomes. FINDINGS: 1239 individuals were included in the study, of whom 196 (16%) were beneficiaries of the BFP and 1043 (84%) were not. After 6 months of treatment, 912 (87%) of 1043 patients in the non-BFP group and 173 (88%) of 196 patients in the BFP group were cured of tuberculosis, 103 (10%) patients in the non-BFP group and 17 (9%) patients in the BFP group had dropped out, and 25 (3%) patients in the non-BFP group and six (3%) patients in the BFP group had died. Three (<1%) of 1043 patients in the non-BFP group developed drug-resistant tuberculosis. Being a BFP beneficiary had a positive effect for cure (average effect 0·076 [95% CI 0·037 to 0·11]) and a negative effect for dropout (-0·070 [-0·105 to 0·036]) and death (-0·002 [-0·021 to 0·017]). INTERPRETATION: BFP alone had a direct effect on tuberculosis treatment outcome and could greatly contribute to the goals of the WHO End TB Strategy. FUNDING: Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Brazilian Ministry of Health Department of Science and Technology (DECIT).

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risk of introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships.

Following a qualitative risk assessment, in which we identified and assessed all viable pathways for the introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States (US), we identified entry through infected vectors via aircraft and cargo ships as the most likely pathway, and thus considered it further in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of introduction of JEV in the US via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships arriving from Asia, using a QRA model. We created a stochastic model to quantify the probability of introduction of at least one infected mosquito in the continental US via aircraft and cargo ships, per at-risk period (March to October) or year, respectively. We modeled the following parameters: number of flights (per at-risk period, i.e., March to October) and cargo ships (per year) and per region, number of mosquitoes per flight and ship, number of mosquitoes that were not found and sensitivity of the mosquito collection method in aircraft, mosquito infection rates, and number of mosquitoes coming in aircraft per at-risk period (March to October) and cargo ships per year. Flight and cargo ship data pertained to years 2010-2016. For model building purposes, we only considered port-to-port vessels arriving from Asia to the US, we assumed that mosquitoes survive the trans-Pacific Ocean ship crossing and that the number of mosquitoes in cargo and passenger flights is similar. Our model predicted a very high risk (0.95 median probability; 95% CI = 0.80-0.99) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced in the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October, via aircraft transportation from JEV-affected countries in Asia. We also estimated that a median of three infected mosquitoes can enter the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October (95% CI = 1-7). The highest probability of introduction via aircraft was attributed to the Mediterranean California ecoregion (0.74; 95% CI = 0.50-0.90). We predicted, however, a negligible risk (0; 95% CI = 0.00-0.01) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced via cargo ships. Although the risk of introduction of JEV-infected mosquitoes by cargo ships was negligible, the risk via aircraft was estimated to be high. Our findings indicate the need to prioritize JEV prevention and control methods for aircraft-based pathways, such as aircraft disinfection. The quantitative estimates provided in this study are of interest to public health entities and other stakeholders, as they may support future interventions for preventing JEV introduction, as well as other vector-borne diseases, in the US and other countries.

Can digital breast tomosynthesis perform better than standard digital mammography work-up in breast cancer assessment clinic?

PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy of use of digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) with standard digital mammography (DM) workup views in the breast cancer assessment clinic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Tomosynthesis Assessment Clinic trial (TACT), conducted between 16 October 2014 and 19 April 2016, is an ethics-approved, monocenter, multireader, multicase split-plot reading study. After written informed consent was obtained, 144 females (age > 40 years) who were recalled to the assessment clinic were recruited into TACT. These cases (48 cancers) were randomly allocated for blinded review of (1) DM workup and (2) DBT, both in conjunction with previous DM from the screening examination. Fifteen radiologists of varying experience levels in the Australia BreastScreen Program were included in this study, wherein each radiologist read 48 cases (16 cancers) in 3 non-overlapping blocks. Diagnostic accuracy was measured by means of sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV). The receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to determine radiologists' performances. RESULTS: Use of DBT (AUC = 0.927) led to improved performance of the radiologists (z = 2.62, p = 0.008) compared with mammography workup (AUC = 0.872). Similarly, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of DBT (0.93, 0.75, 0.64, 0.96) were higher than those of the workup (0.90, 0.56, 0.49, 0.92). Most radiologists (80%) performed better with DBT than standard workup. Cancerous lesions on DBT appeared more severe (U = 33,172, p = 0.02) and conspicuous (U = 24,207, p = 0.02). There was a significant reduction in the need for additional views (χ2 = 17.63, p < 0.001) and recommendations for ultrasound (χ2 = 8.56, p = 0.003) with DBT. CONCLUSIONS: DBT has the potential to increase diagnostic accuracy and simplify the assessment process in the breast cancer assessment clinic. KEY POINTS: • Use of DBT in the assessment clinic results in increased diagnostic accuracy. • Use of DBT in the assessment clinic improves performance of radiologists and also increases the confidence in their decisions. • DBT may reduce the need for additional views, ultrasound imaging, and biopsy.

Assessment of data on vector and host competence for Japanese encephalitis virus: A systematic review of the literature.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a virus of the Flavivirus genus that may result in encephalitis in human hosts. This vector-borne zoonosis occurs in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and an intentional or inadvertent introduction into the United States (US) would have major public health and economic consequences. The objective of this study was to gather, appraise, and synthesize primary research literature to identify and quantify vector and host competence for JEV, using a systematic review (SR) of the literature. After defining the research question, we performed a search in selected electronic databases and journals. The title and abstract of the identified articles were screened for relevance using a set of exclusion and inclusion criteria, and relevant articles were subjected to a risk of bias assessment, followed by data extraction. Data were extracted from 171 peer-reviewed articles. Most studies were observational studies (59.1%) and reported vector competence (60.2%). The outcome measures reported pertained to transmission efficiency, host preference, and vector susceptibility to infection within vector competence; and susceptibility to infection within host competence. Regarding vector competence, the proportion of JEV infection reported across all 149 mosquito species in all observational studies ranged from 0 to 100%. In experimental studies, infection, dissemination, and transmission rates varied between 0 and 100%. Minimum infection rates (MIR) varied between 0 and 333.3 per 1000 mosquitoes. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) values ranged from 0 to 53.8 per 1000 mosquitoes. The host species in which mosquitoes mostly fed consisted of pigs and cattle (total of 84 blood meals taken by mosquitoes from each of these host species). As for host competence, the proportion of JEV infection varied between 0 (in rabbits, reptiles, and amphibians) and 88.9% (cattle). This SR presents comprehensive data on JEV vector and host competence, which can be used to quantify risks associated with the introduction of JEV into the US.