Development and Validation of the US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) Model: Health Disparity and Economic Impact Model.

BACKGROUND: Few simulation models have incorporated the interplay of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD); their upstream lifestyle and biological risk factors; and their downstream effects on health disparities and economic consequences. METHODS: We developed and validated a US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) model that incorporates demographic, clinical, and lifestyle risk factors to jointly predict overall and racial-ethnic groups-specific obesity, diabetes, CVD, and cause-specific mortality for the US adult population aged 40 to 79 y at baseline. An individualized health care cost prediction model was further developed and integrated. This model incorporates nationally representative data on baseline demographics, lifestyle, health, and cause-specific mortality; dynamic changes in modifiable risk factors over time; and parameter uncertainty using probabilistic distributions. Validation analyses included assessment of 1) population-level risk calibration and 2) individual-level risk discrimination. To illustrate the application of the DOC-M model, we evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a national produce prescription program. RESULTS: Comparing the 15-y model-predicted population risk of primary outcomes among the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort with the observed prevalence from age-matched cross-sectional 2003-2016 NHANES cohorts, calibration performance was strong based on observed-to-expected ratio and calibration plot analysis. In most cases, Brier scores fell below 0.0004, indicating a low overall prediction error. Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts, the c-statistics for assessing individual-level risk discrimination were 0.85 to 0.88 for diabetes, 0.93 to 0.95 for obesity, 0.74 to 0.76 for CVD history, and 0.78 to 0.81 for all-cause mortality, both overall and in three racial-ethnic groups. Open-source code for the model was posted at https://github.com/food-price/DOC-M-Model-Development-and-Validation. CONCLUSIONS: The validated DOC-M model can be used to examine health, equity, and the economic impact of health policies and interventions on behavioral and clinical risk factors for obesity, diabetes, and CVD. HIGHLIGHTS: We developed a novel microsimula'tion model for obesity, diabetes, and CVD, which intersect together and - critically for prevention and treatment interventions - share common lifestyle, biologic, and demographic risk factors.Validation analyses, including assessment of (1) population-level risk calibration and (2) individual-level risk discrimination, showed strong performance across the overall population and three major racial-ethnic groups for 6 outcomes (obesity, diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality, CVD- and DM-cause mortality)This paper provides a thorough explanation and documentation of the development and validation process of a novel microsimulation model, along with the open-source code (https://github.com/food-price/ DOCM_validation) for public use, to serve as a guide for future simulation model assessments, validation, and implementation.

Longitudinal Associations of Plasma TMAO and Related Metabolites with Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Animal studies suggest that gut microbiome metabolites such as trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) may influence cognitive function and dementia risk. However potential health effects of TMAO and related metabolites remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: We examined prospective associations of TMAO, γ-butyrobetaine, crotonobetaine, carnitine, choline, and betaine with risk of cognitive impairment and dementia among older adults aged 65 years and older in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). METHODS: TMAO and metabolites were measured in stored plasma specimens collected at baseline. Incident cognitive impairment was assessed using the 100-point Modified Mini-Mental State Examination administered serially up to 7 times. Clinical dementia was identified using neuropsychological tests adjudicated by CHS Cognition Study investigators, and by ICD-9 codes from linked Medicare data. Associations of each metabolite with cognitive outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Over a median of 13 years of follow-up, 529 cases of cognitive impairment, and 522 of dementia were identified. After multivariable adjustment for relevant risk factors, no associations were seen with TMAO, carnitine, choline, or betaine. In contrast, higher crotonobetaine was associated with 20-32% higher risk of cognitive impairment and dementia per interquintile range (IQR), while γ-butyrobetaine was associated with ∼25% lower risk of the same cognitive outcomes per IQR.∥Conclusion:These findings suggest that γ-butyrobetaine, crotonobetaine, two gut microbe and host metabolites, are associated with risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. Our results indicate a need for mechanistic studies evaluating potential effects of these metabolites, and their interconversion on brain health, especially later in life.

Implementing federal food service guidelines in federal and private worksite cafeterias in the United States leads to improved health outcomes and is cost saving.

Poor diet increases cardiometabolic disease risk, yet the impact of food service guidelines on employee health and its cost effectiveness is poorly understood. Federal food service guidelines (FFSG) aim to provide United States (U.S.) government employees with healthier food options. Using microsimulation modeling, we estimated changes in the incidence of cardiometabolic disease, related mortality, and the cost effectiveness of implementing FFSG in nationally representative model populations of government and private company employees across 5 years and lifetime. We based estimates on changes in workplace intake of six FFSG dietary targets and showed lifetime reductions of heart attacks (- 107/million), strokes (- 30/million), diabetes (- 134/million), ischemic heart disease deaths (- 56/million), and stroke deaths (- 8/million). FFSG is cost saving overall, with total savings in discounted healthcare costs from $4,611,026 (5 years) to $539,809,707 (lifetime) $U.S. This study demonstrates that FFSG improves health outcomes and is cost saving.

Economic evaluation of community-based falls prevention interventions for older populations: a systematic methodological overview of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Falls impose significant health and economic burdens on older people. The volume of falls prevention economic evaluations has increased, the findings from which have been synthesised by systematic reviews (SRs). Such SRs can inform commissioning and design of future evaluations; however, their findings can be misleading and incomplete, dependent on their pre-specified criteria. This study aims to conduct a systematic overview (SO) to: (1) systematically identify SRs of community-based falls prevention economic evaluations; (2) describe the methodology and findings of SRs; (3) critically appraise the methodology of SRs; and (4) suggest commissioning recommendations based on SO findings. METHODS: The SO followed the PRISMA guideline and the Cochrane guideline on SO, covering 12 databases and grey literature for the period 2003-2020. Eligible studies were SRs with 50% or more included studies that were economic evaluations of community-based falls prevention (against any comparator) for older persons (aged 60 +) or high-risk individuals aged 50-59. Identified SRs' aims, search strategies and results, extracted data fields, quality assessment methods/results, and commissioning and research recommendations were synthesised. The comprehensiveness of previous SRs' data synthesis was judged against criteria drawn from literature on falls prevention/public health economic evaluation. Outcomes of general population, lifetime decision models were re-analysed to inform commissioning recommendations. The SO protocol is registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021234379). RESULTS: Seven SRs were identified, which extracted 8 to 33 data fields from 44 economic evaluations. Four economic evaluation methodological/reporting quality checklists were used; three SRs narratively synthesised methodological features to varying extent and focus. SRs generally did not appraise decision modelling features, including methods for characterising dynamic complexity of falls risk and intervention need. Their commissioning recommendations were based mainly on cost-per-unit ratios (e.g., incremental cost-effectiveness ratios) and neglected aggregate impact. There is model-based evidence of multifactorial and environmental interventions, home assessment and modification and Tai Chi being cost-effective but also the risk that they exacerbate social inequities of health. CONCLUSIONS: Current SRs of falls prevention economic evaluations do not holistically inform commissioning and evaluation. Accounting for broader decisional factors and methodological nuances of economic evaluations, particularly decision models, is needed.

Economic models of community-based falls prevention: a systematic review with subsequent commissioning and methodological recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Falls impose significant health and economic burdens among older populations, making their prevention a priority. Health economic models can inform whether the falls prevention intervention represents a cost-effective use of resources and/or meet additional objectives such as reducing social inequities of health. This study aims to conduct a systematic review (SR) of community-based falls prevention economic models to: (i) systematically identify such models; (ii) synthesise and critically appraise modelling methods/results; and (iii) formulate methodological and commissioning recommendations. METHODS: The SR followed PRISMA 2021 guideline, covering the period 2003-2020, 12 academic databases and grey literature. A study was included if it: targeted community-dwelling persons aged 60 and over and/or aged 50-59 at high falls risk; evaluated intervention(s) designed to reduce falls or fall-related injuries; against any comparator(s); reported outcomes of economic evaluation; used decision modelling; and had English full text. Extracted data fields were grouped by: (A) model and evaluation overview; (B) falls epidemiology features; (C) falls prevention intervention features; and (D) evaluation methods and outcomes. A checklist for falls prevention economic evaluations was used to assess reporting/methodological quality. Extracted fields were narratively synthesised and critically appraised to inform methodological and commissioning recommendations. The SR protocol is registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021232147). RESULTS: Forty-six models were identified. The most prevalent issue according to the checklist was non-incorporation of all-cause care costs. Based on general population, lifetime models conducting cost-utility analyses, seven interventions produced favourable ICERs relative to no intervention under the cost-effectiveness threshold of US$41,900 (£30,000) per QALY gained; of these, results for (1) combined multifactorial and environmental intervention, (2) physical activity promotion for women, and (3) targeted vitamin D supplementation were from validated models. Decision-makers should explore the transferability and reaches of interventions in their local settings. There was some evidence that exercise and home modification exacerbate existing social inequities of health. Sixteen methodological recommendations were formulated. CONCLUSION: There is significant methodological heterogeneity across falls prevention models. This SR's appraisals of modelling methods should facilitate the conceptualisation of future falls prevention models. Its synthesis of evaluation outcomes, though limited to published evidence, could inform commissioning.

Consumption of single products versus fixed-dose combination medicines for hypertension and hyperlipidemia during 2015-2019 in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Fixed-dose combinations can simplify prescribing, and numerous combination products exist for hypertension and dyslipidemia in South Korea. This study's aim was to compare trends in the consumption of single products versus fixed-dose combinations for hypertension and hyperlipidemia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed the Korean national health insurance claims database from January 2015 through December 2019. Consumption of medicines was calculated using the defined daily dose per 1,000 inhabitants per day (DIDs) and expenditures over time. During 2015-2019, the use of antihypertensive drugs increased with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.9% for single products and with an AGR of 35.6% for fixed-dose combinations. A notable increase was observed for antihyperlipidemic combination drugs with an AGR of 268.1% compared to single products with 35.7%. For older adults (65+ years), the consumption of drugs for hypertension and hyperlipidemia was 3-4.5 and about 3 times higher, respectively, than in adults aged 20-64 years, and a sharp increase was found in antihyperlipidemic fixed-dose combinations among older adults. A large increase was seen for C09 (agents acting on the renin-angiotensin system) with an AGR of 36.5%, especially C09DB (angiotensin II receptor blockers + calcium channel blockers) was widely used and steeply increased with 114.2%. For antihyperlipidemic drugs, C10AA (HMG CoA reductase inhibitors) accounted for a large share and sharply increased, with 52.1 DIDs in 2019 and with an AGR of 78.4%, whereas C10BA (combinations of various lipid modifying agents) increased 9.6 times from 2.9 DIDs (96 million USD) in 2015 to 27.7 DIDs (912 million USD) in 2019. CONCLUSION: The findings of increased consumption and drug spending among older adults underscores the need for real-world evidence about health outcomes of fixed-dose combinations in this population.

Qualitative research to inform economic modelling: a case study in older people's views on implementing the NICE falls prevention guideline.

BACKGROUND: High prevalence of falls among older persons makes falls prevention a public health priority. Yet community-based falls prevention face complexity in implementation and any commissioning strategy should be subject to economic evaluation to ensure cost-effective use of healthcare resources. The study aims to capture the views of older people on implementing the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline on community-based falls prevention and explore how the qualitative data can be used to inform commissioning strategies and conceptual modelling of falls prevention economic evaluation in the local area of Sheffield. METHODS: Focus group and interview participants (n = 27) were recruited from Sheffield, England, and comprised falls prevention service users and eligible non-users of varying falls risks. Topics concerned key components of the NICE-recommended falls prevention pathway, including falls risk screening, multifactorial risk assessment and treatment uptake and adherence. Views on other topics concerning falls prevention were also invited. Framework analysis was applied for data analysis, involving data familiarisation, identifying themes, indexing, charting and mapping and interpretation. The qualitative data were mapped to three frameworks: (1) facilitators and barriers to implementing the NICE-recommended pathway and contextual factors; (2) intervention-related causal mechanisms for formulating commissioning strategies spanning context, priority setting, need, supply and demand; and (3) methodological and evaluative challenges for public health economic modelling. RESULTS: Two cross-component factors were identified: health motives of older persons; and professional competence. Participants highlighted the need for intersectoral approaches and prioritising the vulnerable groups. The local commissioning strategy should consider the socioeconomic, linguistic, geographical, legal and cultural contexts, priority setting challenges, supply-side mechanisms spanning provider, organisation, funding and policy (including intersectoral) and health and non-health demand motives. Methodological and evaluative challenges identified included: incorporating non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs; considering dynamic complexity; considering social determinants of health; and conducting equity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Holistic qualitative research can inform how commissioned falls prevention pathways can be feasible and effective. Qualitative data can inform commissioning strategies and conceptual modelling for economic evaluations of falls prevention and other geriatric interventions. This would improve the structural validity of quantitative models used to inform geriatric public health policies.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

Assessment of Oral Vancomycin-Induced Alterations in Gut Bacterial Microbiota and Metabolome of Healthy Men.

Several classes of antibiotics have reduced the mortality caused by infectious diseases; however, orally administered antibiotics alter the composition of gut microbiota, leading to dysbiosis-related disease. Therefore, in this study, we used 16S rRNA gene sequencing- and metabolomics-based approaches to investigate the effects of oral vancomycin on gut bacterial microbiota and the metabolome in biospecimens collected from healthy men. Samples collected from 11 healthy men were analyzed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and metabolomics. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed to analyze the gut bacterial microbiota, and GC-TOFMS-based untargeted metabolomics was performed to analyze fecal, urine, and plasma metabolomics. Spearman's rank correlation was utilized to explore the associations between gut bacterial microbiota and metabolome. Fecal 16S rRNA gene sequencing analysis showed decreased relative abundance of genera belonging to the phyla Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes, and increased relative abundance of genera of the phyla Proteobacteria and Fusobacteria. Fecal metabolomics analysis showed that levels of uracil, L-aspartic acid, lithocholic acid, and deoxycholic acid were significantly higher at baseline, whereas that of dihydrouracil was significantly higher after vancomycin administration. No significant metabolic markers were selected from urine and plasma metabolomics analysis. This study demonstrates that oral vancomycin administration induces alterations in gut bacterial microbiota and metabolome. Correlation analysis between our two datasets shows that alteration of the gut bacterial microbiota, induced by oral vancomycin, potentially affected the systemic activity of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase. This correlation should be further examined in future studies to define the effects of gut bacterial microbiota on drug-metabolizing enzymes, thereby contributing to the development of personalized therapy.

Health and Economic Impacts of the National Menu Calorie Labeling Law in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Excess caloric intake is linked to weight gain, obesity, and related diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Obesity incidence is rising, with nearly 3 in 4 US adults being overweight or obese. In 2018, the US federal government finalized the implementation of mandatory labeling of calorie content on all menu items across major chain restaurants nationally as a strategy to support informed consumer choice, reduce caloric intake, and potentially encourage restaurant reformulations. Yet, the potential health and economic impacts of this policy remain unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) to estimate reductions in CVD events, diabetes mellitus cases, gains in quality-adjusted life years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the menu calorie labeling intervention, based on consumer responses alone, and further accounting for potential industry reformulation. The model incorporated nationally representative demographic and dietary data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2009 to 2016; policy effects on consumer diets and body mass index-disease effects from published meta-analyses; and policy effects on industry reformulation, policy costs (policy administration, industry compliance, and reformulation), and health-related costs (formal and informal healthcare costs, productivity costs) from established sources or reasonable assumptions. We modeled change in calories to change in weight using an established dynamic weight-change model, assuming 50% of expected calorie reductions would translate to long-term reductions. Findings were evaluated over 5 years and a lifetime from healthcare and societal perspectives, with uncertainty incorporated in both 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Between 2018 and 2023, implementation of the restaurant menu calorie labeling law was estimated, based on consumer response alone, to prevent 14 698 new CVD cases (including 1575 CVD deaths) and 21 522 new type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, gaining 8749 quality-adjusted life years. Over a lifetime, corresponding values were 135 781 new CVD cases (including 27 646 CVD deaths), 99 736 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, and 367 450 quality-adjusted life years. Assuming modest restaurant item reformulation, both health and economic benefits were estimated to be about 2-fold larger than based on consumer response alone. The consumer response alone was estimated to be cost-saving by 2023, with net lifetime savings of $10.42B from a healthcare perspective and $12.71B from a societal perspective. Findings were robust in a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our national model suggests that the full implementation of the US calorie menu labeling law will generate significant health gains and healthcare and societal cost-savings. Industry responses to modestly reformulate menu items would provide even larger additional benefits.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Volume, Tiered, and Absolute Sugar Content Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction. METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans. CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.

Cost-Effectiveness of a National Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax to Reduce Cancer Burdens and Disparities in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption contributes to obesity, a risk factor for 13 cancers. Although SSB taxes can reduce intake, the health and economic impact on reducing cancer burdens in the United States are unknown, especially among low-income Americans with higher SSB intake and obesity-related cancer burdens. METHODS: We used the Diet and Cancer Outcome Model, a probabilistic cohort state-transition model, to project health gains and economic benefits of a penny-per-ounce national SSB tax on reducing obesity-associated cancers among US adults aged 20 years and older by income. RESULTS: A national SSB tax was estimated to prevent 22 075 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 16 040-28 577) new cancer cases and 13 524 (95% UI = 9841-17 681) cancer deaths among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was estimated to cost $1.70 (95% UI = $1.50-$1.95) billion for government implementation and $1.70 (95% UI = $1.48-$1.96) billion for industry compliance, while saving $2.28 (95% UI = $1.67-$2.98) billion cancer-related healthcare costs. The SSB tax was highly cost-effective from both a government affordability perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = $1486, 95% UI = -$3516-$9265 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) and a societal perspective (ICER = $13 220, 95% UI = $3453-$28 120 per QALY). Approximately 4800 more cancer cases and 3100 more cancer deaths would be prevented, and $0.34 billion more healthcare cost savings would be generated among low-income (federal poverty-to-income ratio [FPIR] ≤ 1.85) than higher-income individuals (FPIR > 1.85). CONCLUSIONS: A penny-per-ounce national SSB tax is cost-effective for cancer prevention in the United States, with the largest health gains and economic benefits among low-income Americans.

Cardiometabolic disease costs associated with suboptimal diet in the United States: A cost analysis based on a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Poor diet is a leading risk factor for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) in the United States, but its economic costs are unknown. We sought to estimate the cost associated with suboptimal diet in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends [CVD PREDICT]) was used to estimate annual cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke) and type 2 diabetes costs associated with suboptimal intake of 10 food groups (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, sodium). A representative US population sample of individuals aged 35-85 years was created using weighted sampling from National Health And Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2012 cycles. Estimates were stratified by cost type (acute, chronic, drug), sex, age, race, education, BMI, and health insurance. Annual diet-related CMD costs were $301/person (95% CI $287-$316). This translates to $50.4 billion in CMD costs (18.2% of total) for the whole population, of which 84.3% are attributed to acute care ($42.6 billion). The largest annual per capita costs are attributed to low consumption of nuts/seeds ($81; 95% CI $74-$86) and seafood omega-3 fats ($76; 95% CI $70-$83), and the lowest are attributed to high consumption of red meat ($3; 95% CI $2.8-$3.5) and polyunsaturated fats ($20; 95% CI $19-$22). Individual costs are highest for men ($380), those aged ≥65 years ($408), blacks ($320), the less educated ($392), and those with Medicare ($481) or dual-eligible ($536) insurance coverage. A limitation of our study is that dietary intake data were assessed from 24-hour dietary recall, which may not fully capture a diet over a person's life span and is subject to measurement errors. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal diet of 10 dietary factors accounts for 18.2% of all ischemic heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes costs in the US, highlighting that timely implementation of diet policies could address these health and economic burdens.

Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health.

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for improving diet and health through Medicare and Medicaid: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Economic incentives through health insurance may promote healthier behaviors. Little is known about health and economic impacts of incentivizing diet, a leading risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), through Medicare and Medicaid. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) estimated CVD and diabetes cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs (formal healthcare, informal healthcare, and lost-productivity costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of two policy scenarios for adults within Medicare and Medicaid, compared to a base case of no new intervention: (1) 30% subsidy on fruits and vegetables ("F&V incentive") and (2) 30% subsidy on broader healthful foods including F&V, whole grains, nuts/seeds, seafood, and plant oils ("healthy food incentive"). Inputs included national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Overall, 82 million adults (35-80 years old) were on Medicare and/or Medicaid. The mean (SD) age was 68.1 (11.4) years, 56.2% were female, and 25.5% were non-whites. Health and cost impacts were simulated over the lifetime of current Medicare and Medicaid participants (average simulated years = 18.3 years). The F&V incentive was estimated to prevent 1.93 million CVD events, gain 4.64 million QALYs, and save $39.7 billion in formal healthcare costs. For the healthy food incentive, corresponding gains were 3.28 million CVD and 0.12 million diabetes cases prevented, 8.40 million QALYs gained, and $100.2 billion in formal healthcare costs saved, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, both scenarios were cost-effective at 5 years and beyond, with lifetime ICERs of $18,184/QALY (F&V incentive) and $13,194/QALY (healthy food incentive). From a societal perspective including informal healthcare costs and lost productivity, respective ICERs were $14,576/QALY and $9,497/QALY. Results were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including by different durations of the intervention (5, 10, and 20 years and lifetime), food subsidy levels (20%, 50%), insurance groups (Medicare, Medicaid, and dual-eligible), and beneficiary characteristics within each insurance group (age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program [SNAP] status). Simulation studies such as this one provide quantitative estimates of benefits and uncertainty but cannot directly prove health and economic impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Economic incentives for healthier foods through Medicare and Medicaid could generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective.

Identification of Novel Mutation in CNGA3 gene by Whole-Exome Sequencing and In-Silico Analyses for Genotype-Phenotype Assessment with Autosomal Recessive Achromatopsia in Pakistani families.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the underlying genetic anomalies in two consanguineous Pakistani families with autosomal recessive achromatopsia. METHODS: The exploratory study was conducted under the patronage of International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan, and Sungshin Women University, Seoul, South Korea, after two families coded PKCN-02 and PKCN-07 belonging to different ethnic groups were recruited from different areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhawa province of Pakistan in July 2016. The families were originally diagnosed with nystagmus upon medical examination. Exome sequencing was performed to identify the possible causative gene which was found to be cyclic nucleotide-gated channel alpha-3. Sanger sequencing was performed to confirm the mutations. After genetic analysis, clinical analysis was re-evaluated for colour vision using Ishihara 26 plates. Pathogenic potential of these mutations was evaluated using algorithmic mutation prediction tools. In-silico analysis was performed to predict effect of these mutations on protein structure of the gene in question. RESULTS: Exome sequencing revealed a reported missense mutation c .1306C>T (p.R436W) in family PKCN-02 and a novel missense mutation c.1540G>A (p.D514N) in family PKCN-07. After mutational analysis, clinical re-evaluation revealed that both families were segregating autosomal recessive achromatopsia. Further, the topological model of the cyclic nucleotide-gated channel alpha-3 polypeptide describes these missense mutations primarily affecting the C-linker and cyclic guanosine monophosphate-binding sites, respectively. Protein structure modelling of cyclic nucleotide-gated channel alpha-3 protein revealed abnormal structure produced by p.R436W and p.D514N.. CONCLUSIONS: Exome sequencing approach was used to first identify the genetic alteration in families with nystagmus. Two mutations in cyclic nucleotide-gated channel alpha-3gene were uncovered, including one novel mutation. Clinical re-evaluation uncovered that both families had achromatopsia.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives and disincentives for improving food purchases and health through the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides approximately US$70 billion annually to support food purchases by low-income households, supporting approximately 1 in 7 Americans. In the 2018 Farm Bill, potential SNAP revisions to improve diets and health could include financial incentives, disincentives, or restrictions for certain foods. However, the overall and comparative impacts on health outcomes and costs are not established. We aimed to estimate the health impact, program and healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in SNAP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT), populated with national data on adult SNAP participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects from SNAP pilots and food pricing meta-analyses, diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy, food, and healthcare costs from published literature to estimate the overall and comparative impacts of 3 dietary policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus), combining 30% incentives for F&V, nuts, whole grains, fish, and plant-based oils and 30% disincentives for SSBs, junk food, and processed meats. Among approximately 14.5 million adults on SNAP at baseline with mean age 52 years, our simulation estimates that the F&V incentive over 5 years would prevent 38,782 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, gain 18,928 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and save $1.21 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to 93,933 CVD events prevented, 45,864 QALYs gained, and $4.33 billion saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were 116,875 CVD events prevented, 56,056 QALYs gained, and $5.28 billion saved. Over a lifetime, the F&V incentive would prevent approximately 303,900 CVD events, gain 649,000 QALYs, and save $6.77 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to approximately 797,900 CVD events prevented, 2.11 million QALYs gained, and $39.16 billion in healthcare costs saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were approximately 940,000 CVD events prevented, 2.47 million QALYs gained, and $41.93 billion saved. From a societal perspective (including programmatic costs but excluding food subsidy costs as an intra-societal transfer), all 3 scenarios were cost-saving. From a government affordability perspective (i.e., incorporating food subsidy costs, including for children and young adults for whom no health gains were modeled), the F&V incentive was of low cost-effectiveness at 5 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $548,053/QALY) but achieved cost-effectiveness ($66,525/QALY) over a lifetime. Adding SSB restriction, the intervention was cost-effective at 10 years ($68,857/QALY) and very cost-effective at 20 years ($26,435/QALY) and over a lifetime ($5,216/QALY). The combined incentive/disincentive program produced the largest health gains and reduced both healthcare and food costs, with net cost-savings of $10.16 billion at 5 years and $63.33 billion over a lifetime. Results were consistent in probabilistic sensitivity analyses: for example, from a societal perspective, 1,000 of 1,000 iterations (100%) were cost-saving for all 3 interventions. Due to the nature of simulation studies, the findings cannot prove the health and cost impacts of national SNAP interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging healthier eating through SNAP could generate substantial health benefits and be cost-effective or cost-saving. A combined food incentive/disincentive program appears most effective and may be most attractive to policy-makers.

Assessment of induced CYP3A activity in pregnant women using 4ß-hydroxycholesterol: Cholesterol ratio as an appropriate metabolic marker.

AIMS: This study was aimed at evaluating changes in CYP3A activity following and during pregnancy by analyzing metabolic markers for CYP3A activity, which can help avoid unnecessary drug exposure and invasive sampling. METHODS: Forty-eight pregnant women and 25 non-pregnant women were enrolled in this study. Plasma and urine samples were collected from the pregnant women during each trimester and from the non-pregnant women for evaluation of metabolic markers for CYP3A activity. Metabolic markers for CYP3A activity were measured using GC-MS. RESULTS: An increased 4ß-hydroxycholesterol/cholesterol ratio, consistent with high CYP3A activity, was observed in pregnant women compared with that in non-pregnant women; however, no differences were observed among trimesters. No significant differences were observed in urinary markers. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an increase in the activity of CYP3A following but not during pregnancy when measured using the 4ß-hydroxycholesterol/cholesterol ratio. In addition, based on our results, we suggest that the plasma 4ß-hydroxycholesterol/cholesterol ratio be used to measure CYP3A activity in pregnant women.

Assessment of Hepatic Cytochrome P450 3A Activity Using Metabolic Markers in Patients with Renal Impairment.

BACKGROUND: The renal function of individuals is one of the reasons for the variations in therapeutic response to various drugs. Patients with renal impairment are often exposed to drug toxicity, even with drugs that are usually eliminated by hepatic metabolism. Previous study has reported an increased plasma concentration of indoxyl sulfate and decreased plasma concentration of 4ß-hydroxy (OH)-cholesterol in stable kidney transplant recipients, implicating indoxyl sulfate as a cytochrome P450 (CYP) inhibiting factor. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of renal impairment severity-dependent accumulation of indoxyl sulfate on hepatic CYP3A activity using metabolic markers. METHODS: Sixty-six subjects were enrolled in this study; based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), they were classified as having mild, moderate, or severe renal impairment. The plasma concentration of indoxyl sulfate was quantified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Urinary and plasma markers (6ß-OH-cortisol/cortisol, 6ß-OH-cortisone/cortisone, 4ß-OH-cholesterol) for hepatic CYP3A activity were quantified using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The total plasma concentration of cholesterol was measured using the enzymatic colorimetric assay to calculate the 4ß-OH-cholesterol/cholesterol ratio. The correlation between variables was assessed using Pearson's correlation test. RESULTS: There was a significant negative correlation between MDRD eGFR and indoxyl sulfate levels. The levels of urinary 6ß-OH-cortisol/cortisol and 6ß-OH-cortisone/cortisone as well as plasma 4ß-OH-cholesterol and 4ß-OH-cholesterol/cholesterol were not correlated with MDRD eGFR and the plasma concentration of indoxyl sulfate. CONCLUSION: Hepatic CYP3A activity may not be affected by renal impairment-induced accumulation of plasma indoxyl sulfate.

MR assessment of myometrial invasion in women with endometrial cancer: discrepancy between T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to investigate how frequently discrepant imaging findings are encountered between T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging in the preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) assessment of myometrial invasion in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: Seventy-one consecutive women (mean age, 59 years; age range 35-86 years) with endometrial cancer who underwent preoperative MR imaging were included in this single-institution, retrospective study. Depth of myometrial invasion was separately assessed on T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging, and the assessment was considered discrepant, when the two imaging sequences did not match each other. The image analysis also included potential pitfalls responsible for discrepant imaging findings, including the absence of the junctional zone, disruption of the junctional zone, extension to the uterine cornu, presence of leiomyoma and presence of adenomyosis. The results were correlated with histopathologic findings. RESULTS: Of the 71 women, 19 (26.8%) showed discrepant imaging findings between T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging. Histopathologic findings revealed that contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging correctly depicted endometrial cancers in all women with discrepant MR imaging findings. Among the analyzed potential pitfalls, only disruption of the junctional zone showed a significant difference between women with concordant MR imaging findings (29.5%, 13/44) and women with discordant MR imaging findings (93.8%, 15/16) (p = 0.000). CONCLUSION: In the preoperative MR assessment of myometrial invasion in women with endometrial cancer, discrepant imaging findings between T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging are frequently encountered, especially when the junctional zone is disrupted.