Distinguishing Zika and Dengue Viruses through Simple Clinical Assessment, Singapore.

Dengue virus and Zika virus coexist in tropical regions in Asia where healthcare resources are limited; differentiating the 2 viruses is challenging. We showed in a case-control discovery cohort, and replicated in a validation cohort, that the diagnostic indices of conjunctivitis, platelet count, and monocyte count reliably distinguished between these viruses.

Early diagnosis of dengue disease severity in a resource-limited Asian country.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is endemic throughout Cambodia, a country faced with significant health and economic challenges. We undertook a clinical study at the National Paediatric Hospital in Phnom Penh to evaluate clinical diagnostic parameters for dengue and predictors of disease outcome. METHODS: Between September 2011 and January 2013, all consecutive inpatients aged between 1 and 15 years and presenting with suspected dengue were enrolled. They were clinically assessed using both the 1997 and 2009 WHO dengue classifications. Specimens were collected upon admission and discharge and tested for dengue at Institut Pasteur in Cambodia. RESULTS: A total of 701 patients were screened. Of these, 79 % were dengue-confirmed by laboratory testing, and 21 % tested dengue-negative. A positive tourniquet test, absence of upper respiratory symptoms, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, and elevated liver transaminases were independent predictors for laboratory-confirmed dengue among the children. The presence of several warning signs on hospital admission was associated with a concurrent laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of severe disease outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of two or more warning signs was associated with a concurrent laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of severe dengue at hospital admission. Thus, a cumulative score combining simple clinical parameters and first-line laboratory findings could be used to accurately predict dengue virus infection in pediatric populations, optimizing triage in settings with limited laboratory resources.

Review of a two-year methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening program and cost-effectiveness analysis in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) poses an increasingly large disease and economic burden worldwide. The effectiveness of screening programs in the tropics is poorly understood. The aims of this study are: (i) to analyze the factors affecting MRSA colonization at admission and acquisition during hospitalization and (ii) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a screening program which aims to control MRSA incidence during hospitalization. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of patients admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre (CDC) in Singapore between Jan 2009 and Dec 2010 when there was an ongoing selective screening and isolation program. Risk factors contributing to MRSA colonization on admission and acquisition during hospital stay were evaluated using a logistic regression model. In addition, a cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to determine the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted due to implementing the screening and isolation program. RESULTS: The average prevalence rate of screened patients at admission and the average acquisition rate at discharge during the study period were 12.1 and 4.8 % respectively. Logistic regression models showed that older age (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95 % CI 1.02-1.04, p < 0.001) and dermatological conditions (adjusted OR 1.49, 95 % CI 1.11-1.20, p = 0.008) were independently associated with an increased risk of MRSA colonization at admission. Age (adjusted OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.01-1.03, p = 0.002) and length of stay in hospital (adjusted OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001) were independent factors associated with MRSA acquisition during hospitalization. The screening and isolation program reduced the acquisition rate by 1.6 % and was found to be cost saving. For the whole study period, the program cost US$129,916, while it offset hospitalization costs of US$103,869 and loss of productivity costs of US$50,453 with -400 $/DALY averted. DISCUSSION: This study is the first to our knowledge that evaluates the cost-effectiveness of screening and isolation of MRSA patients in a tropical country. Another unique feature of the analysis is the evaluation of acquisition rates among specific types of patients (dermatological, HIV and infectious disease patients)and the comparison of the cost-effectiveness of screening and isolation between them. CONCLUSIONS: Overall our results indicate high MRSA prevalence that can be cost effectively reduced by selective screening and isolation programs in Singapore.

Reducing hypersensitivity reactions with HLA-B*5701 genotyping before abacavir prescription: clinically useful but is it cost-effective in Singapore?

AIM: Abacavir (ABC) is one of the more affordable antiretroviral drugs used for controlling HIV. Although with similar efficacy to current first-line drugs, its limited usage in Singapore can be attributed to its possible side effect of adverse hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs). HLA-B*5701 genotyping is a clinically relevant procedure for avoiding abacavir-induced HSRs. As patients who do not carry the risk allele are unlikely to develop HSRs, a simple rule can be developed to allow abacavir prescription for patients who are B*5701 negative. Here, we carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis of HLA-B*5701 genotyping before abacavir prescription in the context of the Singapore healthcare system, which caters predominantly to Han Chinese, Southeast-asian Malays, and South-asian Indians. In addition, we aim to identify the most cost-effective treatment regimen for HIV patients. METHODS: A decision tree model was developed in TreeAge. The model considers medical treatment and genotyping costs, genotyping test characteristics, the prevalence of the risk allele, reduction in the quality of life, and increased expenditure due to side effects and other factors, evaluating independently over early-stage and late-stage HIV patients segmented by drug contraindications. RESULTS: The study indicates that genotyping is not cost-effective for any ethnicity irrespective of the disease stage, except for Indian patients with early-stage HIV who are contraindicated to tenofovir. CONCLUSION: Abacavir (as first-line) without genotyping is the cheapest and most cost-effective treatment for all ethnicities except for early-stage Indian HIV patients contraindicated to tenofovir. The HLA-B*5701 frequency, the mortality rate from abacavir-induced HSRs, and genotyping costs are among the major factors influencing the cost-effectiveness.

Clinical evaluation of a low cost, in-house developed real-time RT-PCR human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) quantitation assay for HIV-1 infected patients.

OBJECTIVES: HIV-1 viral quantitation is essential for treatment monitoring. An in-house assay would decrease financial barriers to access. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A real-time competitive RT-PCR in house assay (Sing-IH) was developed in Singapore. Using HXB2 as reference, the assay's primers and probes were designed to generate a 183-bp product that overlaps a portion of the LTR region and gag region. A competitive internal control (IC) was included in each assay to monitor false negative results due to inhibition or human error. Clinical evaluation was performed on 249 HIV-1 positive patient samples in comparison with the commercially available Generic HIV Viral Load assay. Correlation and agreement of results were assessed for plasma HIV-1 quantification with both assays. RESULTS: The assay has a lower limit of detection equivalent to 126 copies/mL of HIV-1 RNA and a linear range of detection from 100-1000000 copies/mL. Comparative analysis with reference to the Generic assay demonstrated good agreement between both assays with a mean difference of 0.22 log10 copies/mL and 98.8% of values within 1 log10 copies/mL range. Furthermore, the Sing-IH assay can quantify HIV-1 group M subtypes A-H and group N isolates adequately, making it highly suitable for our region, where subtype B and CRF01_AE predominate. CONCLUSIONS: With a significantly lower running cost compared to commercially available assays, the broadly sensitive Sing-IH assay could help to overcome the cost barriers and serve as a useful addition to the currently limited HIV viral load assay options for resource-limited settings.

Safety and cost savings of reducing adult dengue hospitalization in a tertiary care hospital in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Previously, most dengue cases in Singapore were hospitalized despite low incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or death. To minimize hospitalization, the Communicable Disease Centre at Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH) in Singapore implemented new admission criteria which included clinical, laboratory, and DHF predictive parameters in 2007. METHOD: All laboratory-confirmed dengue patients seen at TTSH during 2006-2008 were retrospectively reviewed for clinical data. Disease outcome and clinical parameters were compared over the 3 years. RESULTS: There was a 33.0% mean decrease in inpatients after the new criteria were implemented compared with the period before (p < 0.001). The proportion of inpatients with DHF increased significantly from 31.7% in 2006 to 34.4% in 2008 (p = 0.008); 68 DHF cases were managed safely on an outpatient basis after compared with none before implementation. DHF inpatients had more serious signs such as clinical fluid accumulation (15.5% vs 2.9% of outpatients), while most DHF outpatients had hypoproteinemia (92.7% vs 81.3% of inpatients). The eight intensive care unit admissions and five deaths during this time period all occurred among inpatients. The new criteria resulted in a median cost saving of US$1.4 million to patients in 2008. CONCLUSION: The new dengue admission criteria were effective in sustainably reducing length of hospitalization, yielding considerable cost savings. A minority of DHF patients with mild symptoms recovered uneventfully through outpatient management.

Higher risk of infection with dengue at the weekend among male Singaporeans.

A growing body of evidence suggests that dengue infection in Singapore predominantly occurs away from the home, but when and where dengue transmission occurs is unclear, confounding control efforts. The authors estimate days of the week in which dengue inpatients in Singapore were infected during the period 2006-2008, based on the day they became febrile and historical data on the incubation period, using Bayesian statistical methods. Among male inpatients, the relative risk of infection is an estimated 57% higher at the weekend, suggesting infections associated with the home or leisure activities. There was no evidence of elevated risk of infection at the weekend for female inpatients. The study motivates further research identifying locales frequented in the week leading up to onset to improve the effective targeting of vector control efforts.

Economic impact of dengue illness and the cost-effectiveness of future vaccination programs in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Dengue illness causes 50-100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%-59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9-14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially.

Validation of probability equation and decision tree in predicting subsequent dengue hemorrhagic fever in adult dengue inpatients in Singapore.

We developed a probability equation and a decision tree from 1,973 predominantly dengue serotype 1 hospitalized adult dengue patients in 2004 to predict progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), applied in our clinic since March 2007. The parameters predicting DHF were clinical bleeding, high serum urea, low serum protein, and low lymphocyte proportion. This study validated these in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 cohort in 2007. The 1,017 adult dengue patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore had a median age of 35 years. Of 933 patients without DHF on admission, 131 progressed to DHF. The probability equation predicted DHF with a sensitivity (Sn) of 94%, specificity (Sp) 17%, positive predictive value (PPV) 16%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 94%. The decision tree predicted DHF with a Sn of 99%, Sp 12%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. Both tools performed well despite a switch in predominant dengue serotypes.

Influenza disease burden in adults by subtypes following the initial epidemic of pandemic H1N1 in Singapore.

Peaks of influenza activity in July 2009 and January 2010 were >90% pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), but by May 2010, H3N2 predominated in hospital attendances (46·5%, versus 38·9% pH1N1); H3N2 hospital attendances were older (72·9% aged ≥60 years versus 13·5% for pH1N1), but the age-stratified proportions admitted for pneumonia ]were similar. As at the end of the third epidemic wave in Singapore, pH1N1 cases in hospital attendances were still markedly younger than cases of H3N2 or influenza B, with little evidence for any changes in severity.

Preparing for introduction of a dengue vaccine: recommendations from the 1st Dengue v2V Asia-Pacific Meeting.

Infection with dengue virus is a major public health problem in the Asia-Pacific region and throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Vaccination represents a major opportunity to control dengue and several candidate vaccines are in development. Experts in dengue and in vaccine introduction gathered for a two day meeting during which they examined the challenges inherent to the introduction of a dengue vaccine into the national immunisation programmes of countries of the Asia-Pacific. The aim was to develop a series of recommendations to reduce the delay between vaccine licensure and vaccine introduction. Major recommendations arising from the meeting included: ascertaining and publicising the full burden and cost of dengue; changing the perception of dengue in non-endemic countries to help generate global support for dengue vaccination; ensuring high quality active surveillance systems and diagnostics; and identifying sustainable sources of funding, both to support vaccine introduction and to maintain the vaccination programme. The attendees at the meeting were in agreement that with the introduction of an effective vaccine, dengue is a disease that could be controlled, and that in order to ensure a vaccine is introduced as rapidly as possible, there is a need to start preparing now.

When less is more: can we abandon prophylactic platelet transfusion in Dengue fever?

Dengue fever (DF) has several hematological manifestations including thrombocytopenia and increased bleeding risk. Prophylactic platelet transfusion-in the absence of major bleeding-is utilized in DF with thrombocytopenia with the intention of preventing hemorrhagic complications. However, prophylactic platelet transfusion in DF is neither standardized nor supported by clinical evidence. We conclude that risks, costs and poor resource utilization associated with prophylactic platelet transfusion in DF far outweigh any potential hematological benefit, and as such, should not constitute routine clinical practice.

Influenza B outbreak among influenza-vaccinated welfare home residents in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Outbreaks of acute respiratory illness occur commonly in long-term care facilities (LTCF), due to the close proximity of residents. Most influenza outbreak reports have been from temperate countries. This study reports an outbreak of influenza B among a highly immunised resident population in a welfare home in tropical Singapore, and discusses vaccine efficacy and the role of acute respiratory illness surveillance for outbreak prevention and control. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the period from 16 to 21 March 2007, outbreak investigations and active case finding were carried out among residents and nursing staff at the welfare home. Interviews and medical notes review were conducted to obtain epidemiological and clinical data. Hospitalised patients were tested for respiratory pathogens. Further genetic studies were also carried out on positive respiratory samples. RESULTS: The overall clinical attack rate was 9.4% (17/180) in residents and 6.7% (2/30) in staff. All infected residents and staff had received influenza immunisation. Fifteen residents were hospitalised, with 2 developing severe complications. Genetic sequencing revealed that the outbreak strain had an 8.2% amino acid difference from B/Malaysia/2506/2004, the 2006 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine strain, which the residents and staff had earlier received. CONCLUSIONS: A mismatch between the vaccine and circulating influenza virus strains can result in an outbreak in a highly immunised LTCF resident population. Active surveillance for acute respiratory illness in LTCFs could be implemented for rapid detection of antigenic drift. Enhanced infection control and other preventive measures can then be deployed in a timely manner to mitigate the effect of any outbreaks.

Decision tree algorithms predict the diagnosis and outcome of dengue fever in the early phase of illness.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is re-emerging throughout the tropical world, causing frequent recurrent epidemics. The initial clinical manifestation of dengue often is confused with other febrile states confounding both clinical management and disease surveillance. Evidence-based triage strategies that identify individuals likely to be in the early stages of dengue illness can direct patient stratification for clinical investigations, management, and virological surveillance. Here we report the identification of algorithms that differentiate dengue from other febrile illnesses in the primary care setting and predict severe disease in adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 1,200 patients presenting in the first 72 hours of acute febrile illness were recruited and followed up for up to a 4-week period prospectively; 1,012 of these were recruited from Singapore and 188 from Vietnam. Of these, 364 were dengue RT-PCR positive; 173 had dengue fever, 171 had dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 20 had dengue shock syndrome as final diagnosis. Using a C4.5 decision tree classifier for analysis of all clinical, haematological, and virological data, we obtained a diagnostic algorithm that differentiates dengue from non-dengue febrile illness with an accuracy of 84.7%. The algorithm can be used differently in different disease prevalence to yield clinically useful positive and negative predictive values. Furthermore, an algorithm using platelet count, crossover threshold value of a real-time RT-PCR for dengue viral RNA, and presence of pre-existing anti-dengue IgG antibodies in sequential order identified cases with sensitivity and specificity of 78.2% and 80.2%, respectively, that eventually developed thrombocytopenia of 50,000 platelet/mm(3) or less, a level previously shown to be associated with haemorrhage and shock in adults with dengue fever. CONCLUSION: This study shows a proof-of-concept that decision algorithms using simple clinical and haematological parameters can predict diagnosis and prognosis of dengue disease, a finding that could prove useful in disease management and surveillance.

Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stock piling for pandemic influenza, Singapore.

We compared strategies for stock piling neuraminidase inhibitors to treat and prevent influenza in Singapore. Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, with Monte Carlo simulations, were used to determine economic outcomes. A pandemic in a population of 4.2 million would result in an estimated 525-1,775 deaths, 10,700-38,600 hospitalization days, and economic costs of 0.7 dollars to 2.2 billion Singapore dollars. The treatment-only strategy had optimal economic benefits: stock piles of antiviral agents for 40% of the population would save an estimated 418 lives and 414 million dollars, at a cost of 52.6 million dollars per shelf-life cycle of the stock pile. Prophylaxis was economically beneficial in high-risk subpopulations, which account for 78% of deaths, and in pandemics in which the death rate was >0.6%. Prophylaxis for pandemics with a 5% case-fatality rate would save 50,000 lives and 81 billion dollars. These models can help policymakers weigh the options for pandemic planning.