High Prevalence of Adverse Social Determinants of Health in Dialysis Access Creation Patients in a Safety-Net Setting.

BACKGROUND: Patients receiving dialysis access surgery are often exposed to adverse social determinants of health (SDH) that negatively impact their care. Our goal was to characterize these factors experienced by our arteriovenous dialysis access patients and identify differences in health outcomes based on their SDH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all patients who underwent dialysis access creation (2017-2021) and were screened for SDH at a clinical visit (using THRIVE survey) implemented at an urban, safety-net hospital institution within 1 year of access creation. Demographics, procedural details, early postoperative outcomes, survey responses, and referral to our hospital's preventive food pantry were recorded. Univariable analysis and multivariable analyses were performed to assess for associations with key health outcomes. RESULTS: There were 190 patients who responded to the survey within 1 year of their operation. At least 1 adverse SDH was identified in 42 (22%) patients. Normalized to number of respondents for each question, adverse SDH identified were difficulty obtaining transportation to medical appointments (18%), food insecurity (16%), difficulty affording utilities (13%), difficulty affording medication (12%), unemployed and seeking employment (9%), unstable housing (7%), difficulty caring for family/friends (6%), and desiring more education (5%). There were 71 (37%) patients who received food pantry referrals. Mean age was 60 years and 38% of patients were female and 64% were Black. More than half of patients (57%) had a tunneled dialysis catheter (TDC) at the time of access creation. Dialysis accesses created were brachiocephalic (39%), brachiobasilic (25%), radiocephalic fistulas (16%), and arteriovenous grafts (14%). Thirty-day emergency department (ED) visits, 30-day readmissions, and 90-day mortality occurred in 23%, 21%, and 2%, respectively. On univariable and multivariable analyses, any adverse SDH determined on survey and food pantry referral were not associated with preoperative dialysis through TDCs, receiving nonautogenous dialysis access, 30-day ED visits and readmissions, or 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Nearly a quarter of dialysis access surgery patients at a safety-net hospital experienced adverse SDH and more than one-third received a food pantry referral. Most common difficulties experienced include difficulty obtaining transportation to medical appointments, food insecurity, and difficulty paying for utilities and medication. Although there were no differences in postoperative outcomes, the high prevalence of these adverse SDH warrants prioritization of resources in this population to ensure healthy equity and further investigation into their effects on health outcomes.

Artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support for liver transplant evaluation and considerations about fairness: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The use of large-scale data and artificial intelligence (AI) to support complex transplantation decisions is in its infancy. Transplant candidate decision-making, which relies heavily on subjective assessment (ie, high variability), provides a ripe opportunity for AI-based clinical decision support (CDS). However, AI-CDS for transplant applications must consider important concerns regarding fairness (ie, health equity). The objective of this study was to use human-centered design methods to elicit providers' perceptions of AI-CDS for liver transplant listing decisions. METHODS: In this multicenter qualitative study conducted from December 2020 to July 2021, we performed semistructured interviews with 53 multidisciplinary liver transplant providers from 2 transplant centers. We used inductive coding and constant comparison analysis of interview data. RESULTS: Analysis yielded 6 themes important for the design of fair AI-CDS for liver transplant listing decisions: (1) transparency in the creators behind the AI-CDS and their motivations; (2) understanding how the AI-CDS uses data to support recommendations (ie, interpretability); (3) acknowledgment that AI-CDS could mitigate emotions and biases; (4) AI-CDS as a member of the transplant team, not a replacement; (5) identifying patient resource needs; and (6) including the patient's role in the AI-CDS. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, providers interviewed were cautiously optimistic about the potential for AI-CDS to improve clinical and equitable outcomes for patients. These findings can guide multidisciplinary developers in the design and implementation of AI-CDS that deliberately considers health equity.

Assessment of Risk Factors Correlated with Outcomes of Traumatic Lower Extremity Soft Tissue Reconstruction.

Identifying risk factors for traumatic lower extremity reconstruction outcomes has been limited by sample size. We evaluated patient and procedural characteristics associated with reconstruction outcomes using data from almost four million patients. Methods: The National Trauma Data Bank (2015-2018) was queried for lower extremity reconstructions. Univariable and multivariable analyses determined associations with inpatient outcomes. Results: There were 4675 patients with lower extremity reconstructions: local flaps (77%), free flaps (19.2%), or both (3.8%). Flaps were most commonly local fasciocutaneous (55.1%). Major injuries in reconstructed extremities were fractures (56.2%), vascular injuries (11.8%), and mangled limbs (2.9%). Ipsilateral procedures prereconstruction included vascular interventions (6%), amputations (5.6%), and fasciotomies (4.3%). Postoperative surgical site infection and amputation occurred in 2% and 2.6%, respectively. Among survivors (99%), mean total length of stay (LOS) was 23.2 ± 21.1 days and 46.8% were discharged to rehab. On multivariable analysis, vascular interventions prereconstruction were associated with increased infection [odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-3.79, P = 0.04], amputation (OR 4.38, 95% CI 2.56-7.47, P < 0.001), prolonged LOS (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.22, P = 0.01), and discharge to rehab (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.07-2.07, P = 0.02). Free flaps were associated with prolonged LOS (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.74-2.49, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Prereconstruction vascular interventions were associated with higher incidences of adverse outcomes. Free flaps correlated with longer LOS, but otherwise similar outcomes. Investigating reasons for increased complication and healthcare utilization likelihood among these subgroups is warranted.

Critical interactions between race and the highly granular area deprivation index in liver transplant evaluation.

Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation may have important implications on disparities in liver transplant (LT) evaluation. In this retrospective cohort study, we constructed a novel dataset by linking individual patient-level data with the highly granular Area Deprivation Index (ADI), which is advantageous over other neighborhood measures due to: specificity of Census Block-Group (versus Census Tract, Zip code), scoring, and robust variables. Our cohort included 1377 adults referred to our center for LT evaluation 8/1/2016-12/31/2019. Using modified Poisson regression, we tested for effect measure modification of the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) and LT evaluation outcomes (listing, initiating evaluation, and death) by race and ethnicity. Compared to patients with high nSES, those with low nSES were at higher risk of not being listed (aRR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.05-1.22; p < .001), of not initiating evaluation post-referral (aRR = 1.20; 95%CI 1.01-1.42; p = .03) and of dying without initiating evaluation (aRR = 1.55; 95%CI 1.09-2.2; p = .01). While White patients with low nSES had similar rates of listing compared to White patients with high nSES (aRR = 1.06; 95%CI .96-1.17; p = .25), Underrepresented patients from neighborhoods with low nSES incurred 31% higher risk of not being listed compared to Underrepresented patients from neighborhoods with high nSES (aRR = 1.31; 95%CI 1.12-1.5; p < .001). Interventions addressing neighborhood deprivation may not only benefit patients with low nSES but may address racial and ethnic inequities.

Multicenter study of racial and ethnic inequities in liver transplantation evaluation: Understanding mechanisms and identifying solutions.

Racial and ethnic disparities persist in access to the liver transplantation (LT) waiting list; however, there is limited knowledge about underlying system-level factors that may be responsible for these disparities. Given the complex nature of LT candidate evaluation, a human factors and systems engineering approach may provide insights. We recruited participants from the LT teams (coordinators, advanced practice providers, physicians, social workers, dieticians, pharmacists, leadership) at two major LT centers. From December 2020 to July 2021, we performed ethnographic observations (participant-patient appointments, committee meetings) and semistructured interviews (N = 54 interviews, 49 observation hours). Based on findings from this multicenter, multimethod qualitative study combined with the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety 2.0 (a human factors and systems engineering model for health care), we created a conceptual framework describing how transplant work system characteristics and other external factors may improve equity in the LT evaluation process. Participant perceptions about listing disparities described external factors (e.g., structural racism, ambiguous national guidelines, national quality metrics) that permeate the LT evaluation process. Mechanisms identified included minimal transplant team diversity, implicit bias, and interpersonal racism. A lack of resources was a common theme, such as social workers, transportation assistance, non-English-language materials, and time (e.g., more time for education for patients with health literacy concerns). Because of the minimal data collection or center feedback about disparities, participants felt uncomfortable with and unadaptable to unwanted outcomes, which perpetuate disparities. We proposed transplant center-level solutions (i.e., including but not limited to training of staff on health equity) to modifiable barriers in the clinical work system that could help patient navigation, reduce disparities, and improve access to care. Our findings call for an urgent need for transplant centers, national societies, and policy makers to focus efforts on improving equity (tailored, patient-centered resources) using the science of human factors and systems engineering.

Cost-effectiveness of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) surveillance in Maryland.

OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the efficacy, cost, and cost-effectiveness of predictive decision-support systems based on surveillance interventions to reduce the spread of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). DESIGN: We developed a computational model that included patient movement between acute-care hospitals (ACHs), long-term care facilities (LTCFs), and communities to simulate the transmission and epidemiology of CRE. A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted on several surveillance strategies to detect asymptomatic CRE colonization, which included screening in ICUs at select or all hospitals, a statewide registry, or a combination of hospital screening and a statewide registry. SETTING: We investigated 51 ACHs, 222 LTCFs, and skilled nursing facilities, and 464 ZIP codes in the state of Maryland. PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS: The model was informed using 2013-2016 patient-mix data from the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission. This model included all patients that were admitted to an ACH. RESULTS: On average, the implementation of a statewide CRE registry reduced annual CRE infections by 6.3% (18.8 cases). Policies of screening in select or all ICUs without a statewide registry had no significant impact on the incidence of CRE infections. Predictive algorithms, which identified any high-risk patient, reduced colonization incidence by an average of 1.2% (3.7 cases) without a registry and 7.0% (20.9 cases) with a registry. Implementation of the registry was estimated to save $572,000 statewide in averted infections per year. CONCLUSIONS: Although hospital-level surveillance provided minimal reductions in CRE infections, regional coordination with a statewide registry of CRE patients reduced infections and was cost-effective.

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Guidelines Negligibly Impacted Repair Rates in Male Never-Smokers and Female Smokers.

OBJECTIVE: In 2014, in addition to male smokers aged 65-75 years, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening for male never-smokers aged 65-75 years with cardiovascular risk factors (Grade C). The USPSTF evolved from a negative to neutral position on screening for female smokers aged 65-75 years (Grade I). We sought to determine whether 2014 guidelines resulted in more AAA repairs in these populations. METHODS: We queried the Vascular Quality Initiative national database (2013-2018) for elective endovascular aortic repairs and open aortic repairs. We implemented difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, a causal inference technique that adjusts for secular time trends, to isolate changes in repair numbers due to the 2014 USPSTF guidelines. Our DID models compared changes in repair numbers in patient groups targeted by the USPSTF updates (intervention group) to those in unaffected, older patient groups (control), before and after 2014. The first model compared changes in repair numbers between male never-smokers aged 65-75 years (intervention group) and 76-85 years (control). The second model compared repair numbers between female smokers aged 65-75 years (intervention group) and 76-85 years (control). RESULTS: There was no significant change in male never-smokers (n = 1,295) aged 65-75 (42%) vs. 76-85 (58%) undergoing AAA repairs after guideline updates, averaged over 4.5 years (+2.4 percentage points; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] -.56-5.26). However, when their primary insurer was Medicare, male never-smokers aged 65-75 years compared with 76-85 years underwent significantly more repairs over 4.5 years (+3.69 percentage points; 95% CI.16-7.22; representing a 10.4% relative increase from baseline in the proportion of male never-smokers on Medicare undergoing AAA repair). Comparing female smokers (n = 2,312) aged 65-75 (54%) vs. 76-85 (46%), there was no significant change in repairs over 4.5 years (-.66 percentage points; 95% CI -4.57-3.26). CONCLUSIONS: The USPSTF 2014 AAA guidelines were associated with modestly increased repairs in male never-smokers aged 65-75 years only on Medicare. There was no impact among female smokers. Higher-grade recommendations and improved guideline adherence may be requisites for change.

Vascular surgery-related violations of the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act.

OBJECTIVE: The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) is a federal law established in 1986 to ensure that patients who present to an emergency department receive medical care regardless of means. Violations are reported to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and can result in significant financial penalties. Our objective was to assess all available EMTALA violations for vascular-related issues. METHODS: EMTALA violations in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services publicly available hospital violations database from 2011 to 2018 were evaluated for vascular-related issues. Details recorded were case type, hospital type, hospital region, reasons for violation, disposition, and mortality. RESULTS: There were 7001 patients identified with any EMTALA violation and 98 (1.4%) were deemed vascular related. The majority (82.7%) of EMTALA violations occurred at urban/suburban hospitals. Based on the Association of American Medical Colleges United States region, vascular-related EMTALA violations occurred in the Northeast (7.1%), Southern (56.1%), Central (18.4%), and Western (18.4%) United States. Case types included cerebrovascular (28.6%), aortic related (22.4%; which consisted of ruptured aortic aneurysms [8.2%], aortic dissection [11.2%], and other aortic [3.1%]), vascular trauma (15.3%), venous-thromboembolic (15.3%), peripheral arterial disease (9.2%), dialysis access (5.1%), bowel ischemia (3.1%), and other (1%) cases. Patients were transferred to another facility in 41.8% of cases. The most common reasons for violation were specialty refusal or unavailability (30.6%), inappropriate documentation (29.6%), misdiagnosis (18.4%), poor communication (17.3%), inappropriate triage (13.3%), failure to obtain diagnostic laboratory tests or imaging (12.2%), and ancillary or nursing staff issues (7.1%). The overall mortality was 19.4% and 31.6% died during the index emergency department visit. Vascular conditions associated with death were venous thromboembolism (31.6%), ruptured aortic aneurysm (21.1%), aortic dissection (21.1%), other aortic causes (10.5%), vascular trauma (10.5%), and bowel ischemia (5.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the frequency of vascular-related EMTALA violations was low, improvements in communication, awareness of vascular disease among staff, specialty staffing, and the development of referral networks and processes are needed to ensure that patients receive adequate care and that institutions are not placed at undue risk.

Intermittent claudication treatment patterns in the commercially insured non-Medicare population.

OBJECTIVE: Despite published guidelines and data for Medicare patients, it is uncertain how younger patients with intermittent claudication (IC) are treated. Additionally, the degree to which treatment patterns have changed over time with the expansion of endovascular interventions and outpatient centers is unclear. Our goal was to characterize IC treatment patterns in the commercially insured non-Medicare population. METHODS: The IBM MarketScan Commercial Database, which includes more than 8 billion US commercial insurance claims, was queried for patients newly diagnosed with IC from 2007 to 2016. Patient demographics, medication profiles, and open/endovascular interventions were evaluated. Time trends were modeled using simple linear regression and goodness-of-fit was assessed with coefficients of determination (R2). A patient-centered cohort sample and a procedure-focused dataset were analyzed. RESULTS: Among 152,935,013 unique patients in the database, there were 300,590 patients newly diagnosed with IC. The mean insurance coverage was 4.4 years. The median patients age was 58 years and 56% of patients were male. The prevalence of statin use was 48% among patients at the time of IC diagnosis and increased to 52% among patients after one year from diagnosis. Interventions were performed in 14.3%, of whom 20% and 6% underwent two or more and three or more interventions, respectively. The median time from diagnosis to intervention decreased from 230 days in 2008 days to 49 days in 2016 (R2 = 0.98). There were 16,406 inpatient and 102,925 ambulatory interventions for IC over the study period. Among ambulatory interventions, 7.9% were performed in office-based/surgical centers. The proportion of atherectomies performed in the ambulatory setting increased from 9.7% in 2007 to 29% in 2016 (R2 = 0.94). In office-based/surgical centers, 57.6% of interventions for IC used atherectomy in 2016. Atherectomy was used in ambulatory interventions by cardiologists in 22.6%, surgeons in 15.2%, and radiologists in 13.6% of interventions. Inpatient atherectomy rates remained stable over the study period. Open and endovascular tibial interventions were performed in 7.9% and 7.8% of ambulatory and inpatient IC interventions, respectively. Tibial bypasses were performed in 8.2% of all open IC interventions. CONCLUSIONS: There has been shorter time to intervention in the treatment of younger, commercially insured patients with IC, with many receiving multiple interventions. Statin use was low. Ambulatory procedures, especially in office-based/surgical centers, increasingly used atherectomy, which was not observed in inpatient settings.

Association of Medicaid Expansion with Tunneled Dialysis Catheter Use at the Time of First Arteriovenous Access Creation.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, many low-income patients initiating hemodialysis are uninsured before qualifying for Medicare. Inadequate access to predialysis care may delay their arteriovenous (AV) access creation and increase tunneled dialysis catheter (TDC) use. The 2014 Affordable Care Act expanded eligibility for Medicaid among low-income adults, but not every state adopted this measure. We evaluated whether Medicaid expansion was associated with decreased TDC use for hemodialysis initiation. METHODS: We queried the United States Vascular Quality Initiative state-level database for non-Medicare patients undergoing initial AV access creation from 2011 to 2018. We evaluated associations of receiving initial AV access in states that expanded Medicaid with concurrent TDC use, survival, and insurance coverage. RESULTS: Data were available for patients in 31 states: 19 states expanded Medicaid from January 2014 to February 2015. Among 8462 patients in the postexpansion period from March 2015 to December 2018, 58% were in Medicaid expansion states. Patients in Medicaid expansion states less often had concurrent TDCs (40% vs. 48%, P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, Medicaid expansion was independently associated with fewer TDCs (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.8, P < 0.001). Three-year survival was similar between patients in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states (84.7% vs. 85.2%, P = 0.053). Multivariable cox-regression confirmed the finding (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.82-1.1, P = 0.482). In difference-in-differences analysis, Medicaid expansion was associated with a 9.2-percentage point increase in Medicaid coverage (95% CI 2.7-15.8, P = 0.009). Hispanic patients exhibited a 30.1-percentage point increase in any insurance coverage (95% CI 0.3-59.9, P = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Patients in Medicaid expansion states were less likely to have TDCs during initial AV access creation, suggesting earlier predialysis care. Hispanic patients benefited from increased insurance coverage. Expanding insurance options for the underserved may improve quality metrics and cost-savings for hemodialysis patients.

Association of state tobacco control policies with active smoking at the time of intervention for intermittent claudication.

OBJECTIVE: Active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for intermittent claudication (IC) is associated with poor outcomes. Notwithstanding, current levels of active smoking in these patients are high. State-level tobacco control policies have been shown to reduce smoking in the general US population. We evaluated whether state cigarette taxes and 100% smoke-free workplace legislation are associated with active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for IC. METHODS: We queried the Vascular Quality Initiative database for peripheral endovascular interventions, infrainguinal bypasses, and suprainguinal bypasses for IC. Active smoking at the time of intervention was defined as smoking within one month of intervention. We implemented difference-in-differences analysis to isolate changes in active smoking owing to cigarette taxes (adjusted for inflation) and implementation of smoke-free workplace legislation. The difference-in-differences models estimated the causal effects of tobacco policies by adjusting for concurrent temporal trends in active smoking unrelated to cigarette taxes or smoke-free workplace legislation. The models controlled for age, sex, race/ethnicity, insurance type, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, state, and year. We tested interactions of taxes with age and insurance. RESULTS: Data were available for 59,847 patients undergoing interventions for IC in 25 states from 2011 to 2019. Across the study period, active smoking at the time of intervention decreased from 48% to 40%. Every $1.00 cigarette tax increase was associated with a 6-percentage point decrease in active smoking (95% confidence interval, -10 to -1 percentage points; P = .02), representing an 11% decrease relative to the baseline proportion of patients actively smoking. The effect of cigarettes taxes was greater in older patients and those on Medicare. Among patients aged 60 to 69 and 70 to 79 years, every $1.00 tax increase resulted in 14% and 21% reductions in active smoking relative to baseline subgroup prevalences of 53% and 29%, respectively (P < .05 for both); however, younger age groups were not affected by tax increases. Among insurance groups, only patients on Medicare exhibited a significant change in active smoking with every $1.00 tax increase (an 18% decrease relative to a 33% baseline prevalence; P = .01). The number of states implementing smoke-free workplace legislation increased from 9 to 14 by 2019; however, this policy was not significantly associated with active smoking prevalence. At follow-up (median, 12.9 months), $1.00 tax increases were still associated with decreased smoking prevalence (a 25% decrease relative to a 33% baseline prevalence; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette tax increases seem to be an effective strategy to decrease active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for IC. Older patients and Medicare recipients are the most responsive to tax increases.

Hospital-Level Medicaid Prevalence Is Associated with Increased Length of Stay after Asymptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy and Stenting Despite no Increase in Major Complications.

BACKGROUND: Length of stay (LOS) after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) for asymptomatic disease is used as a quality measure and affects hospital operating margins. Patient-level Medicaid status has traditionally been associated with longer hospital LOS. Our goal was to assess the association between hospital-level Medicaid prevalence and postoperative LOS after CEA and CAS. METHODS: The National Inpatient Sample was queried from 2006-2014 for CEA and CAS performed for asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Overall hospital-level Medicaid prevalence was divided into quartiles. The quartiles were further categorized into low Medicaid prevalence (LM) (lowest quartile), medium Medicaid prevalence (MM) (second and third quartiles), and high Medicaid prevalence (HM) (fourth quartile) cohorts. The primary outcome evaluated was postoperative LOS >1 day. The secondary outcomes included perioperative/in-hospital complications and mortality. RESULTS: There were 984,283 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis who underwent CEA (88%) or CAS (12%). Mean postoperative LOS after CEA at hospitals with LM, MM, and HM prevalence was 1.4 ± 1.5, 2.1 ± 2.5, and 2.2 ± 2.8 days (P = 0.0001), respectively, and after CAS were 1.7 ± 2.6, 1.8 ± 2.1, and 2 ± 2.6 days (P < 0.0001), respectively. After CEA, relative to LM prevalence, MM (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.17-2.24) and HM (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.2-2.28) prevalence were associated with a higher likelihood of LOS > 1 day (P = 0.009). After CAS, relative to LM prevalence, HM prevalence was associated with a higher likelihood of LOS >1 day (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06-1.91) (P = 0.003). After CEA, neurologic (0.8% vs. 0.9% vs. 0.9%, P = 0.83) and cardiac complications (0.9% vs. 1.2% vs. 1.2%, P = 0.24) were similar among hospitals with LM, MM, and HM prevalence, respectively. After CAS, the prevalence of neurological (1.1% vs. 1% vs. 1.2%, P = 0.42) and cardiac complications (2% vs. 1.3% vs. 1.5%, P = 0.46) were also similar. After both CEA and CAS, mortality was similar among Medicaid prevalence cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Higher hospital-level Medicaid prevalence was associated with longer LOS after CEA and CAS for asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Value-based payment models should adjust for hospital-level Medicaid prevalence to appropriately reimburse providers and hospital with higher Medicaid prevalence as well as investigate care pathways and systems improvement to help reduce LOS.

Pediatric Hand Transplantation: A Decision Analysis.

Background: The first successful bilateral pediatric hand transplant was performed in 2015. Previous hand transplant decision analysis models have focused on the adult population. This model principally aimed to determine whether adverse outcomes associated with immunosuppression outweigh the benefits of performing bilateral hand transplant surgery in a pediatric candidate. The model also conceptualized the valuation of losing years of life and sought to determine the impact of that valuation on the surgical decision. Methods: A decision model compared undergoing bilateral hand transplant surgery with using prosthetics for an 8-year-old patient. The outcome measure used was quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and sensitivity analysis was performed on the immunosuppressive risks associated with the surgical decision, as well as the perceived valuation of aversion to life years lost. Results: The decision to perform surgery was marginally optimal compared to the prosthetic decision (50.11 QALY vs. 47.95 QALY). A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that this difference may be too marginal to detect an optimal decision (50.14 ± 8.28 QALY vs. 47.95 ± 2.12 QALY). Sensitivity analysis identified decision thresholds related to immunosuppression risks (P = 29% vs. P = 33% modeled), and a trend of increasing risk as a patient is more averse to losing life years. Conclusions: The marginally optimal treatment strategy currently is bilateral hand transplant, compared to prosthetics for pediatric patients. Key determinants of the future optimal strategy will be whether immunosuppressive regimens become safer, with a reduced risk of losing life years due to immunosuppressive complications, and whether prosthetics become more acceptable and enable higher functioning.

Risk assessment of significant upper extremity arteriovenous graft infection in the Vascular Quality Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Infectious complications of arteriovenous grafts (AVGs) are a major source of morbidity. Our aim was to characterize contemporary risk factors for upper extremity AVG infection. METHODS: The Vascular Quality Initiative (2011-2018) was queried for all patients undergoing upper extremity AVG creation. AVG infection was classified as an infection treated with antibiotics, incision and drainage, or graft removal. Multivariable analyses were used to evaluate risk factors for short- and long-term AVG infection. RESULTS: Of 1758 upper extremity AVGs, 49 (2.8%) developed significant infection within 3 months, resulting in incision and drainage in 24% and graft removal in 76% of cases. None were managed with antibiotics alone in the study sample. Patients with significant AVG infection were more likely to be white, to be insured, to have a history of coronary artery bypass graft and intravenous (IV) drug use, to be undergoing a concomitant vascular procedure, and to be discharged on an anticoagulant. In multivariable analysis, significant AVG infection within 3 months was associated with IV drug use history (odds ratio [OR], 5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-14.3; P = .003), discharge to a health care facility (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07-6.63; P = .035), discharge on an anticoagulant (OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.13-4.72; P = .021), white race (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.21-4.34; P = .011), and female sex (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.06-3.85; P = .033). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that freedom from graft site infection at 1 year was 96.4%. Longer term graft infection at 1 year was independently associated with IV drug use history (hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.06-3.68; P = .032), initial discharge to a health care facility (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.19-2.97; P = .007), and white race (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.19; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Although significant AVG infection was uncommon in the Vascular Quality Initiative, the majority were treated with graft removal. In select high-risk patients, extra care should be taken and alternative forms of arteriovenous access may be considered.

Prolonged wait time is associated with increased mortality for Chilean waiting list patients with non-prioritized conditions.

BACKGROUND: Most data on mortality and prognostic factors of universal healthcare waiting lists come from North America, Australasia, and Europe, with little information from South America. We aimed to determine the relationship between medical center-specific waiting time and waiting list mortality in Chile. METHOD: Using data from all new patients listed in medical specialist waitlists for non-prioritized health problems from 2008 to 2015 in three geographically distant regions of Chile, we constructed hierarchical multivariate survival models to predict mortality risk at two years after registration for each medical center. Kendall rank correlation analysis was used to measure the association between medical center-specific mortality hazard ratio and waiting times. RESULT: There were 987,497 patients waiting for care at 77 medical centers, including 33,546 (3.40%) who died within two years after registration. Male gender (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.24), older age (HR = 2.88, 95% CI 2.72-3.05), urban residence (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.09-1.31), tertiary care (HR = 2.2, 95% CI 2.14-2.26), oncology (HR = 3.57, 95% CI 3.4-3.76), and hematology (HR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.49-1.73) were associated with higher risk of mortality at each medical center with large region-to-region variations. There was a statistically significant association between waiting time variability and death (Z = 2.16, P = 0.0308). CONCLUSION: Patient wait time for non-prioritized health conditions was associated with increased mortality in Chilean hospitals.

Accuracy and Reliability of Emergency Department Triage Using the Emergency Severity Index: An International Multicenter Assessment.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We assess accuracy and variability of triage score assignment by emergency department (ED) nurses using the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) in 3 countries. In accordance with previous reports and clinical observation, we hypothesize low accuracy and high variability across all sites. METHODS: This cross-sectional multicenter study enrolled 87 ESI-trained nurses from EDs in Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. Standardized triage scenarios published by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) were used. Accuracy was defined by concordance with the AHRQ key and calculated as percentages. Accuracy comparisons were made with one-way ANOVA and paired t test. Interrater reliability was measured with Krippendorff's α. Subanalyses based on nursing experience and triage scenario type were also performed. RESULTS: Mean accuracy pooled across all sites and scenarios was 59.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56.4% to 62.0%) and interrater reliability was modest (α=.730; 95% CI .692 to .767). There was no difference in overall accuracy between sites or according to nurse experience. Medium-acuity scenarios were scored with greater accuracy (76.4%; 95% CI 72.6% to 80.3%) than high- or low-acuity cases (44.1%, 95% CI 39.3% to 49.0% and 54%, 95% CI 49.9% to 58.2%), and adult scenarios were scored with greater accuracy than pediatric ones (66.2%, 95% CI 62.9% to 69.7% versus 46.9%, 95% CI 43.4% to 50.3%). CONCLUSION: In this multinational study, concordance of nurse-assigned ESI score with reference standard was universally poor and variability was high. Although the ESI is the most popular ED triage tool in the United States and is increasingly used worldwide, our findings point to a need for more reliable ED triage tools.

A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

Linking Electronic Health Record and Trauma Registry Data: Assessing the Value of Probabilistic Linkage.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health record (EHR) systems contain large volumes of novel heterogeneous data that can be linked to trauma registry data to enable innovative research not possible with either data source alone. OBJECTIVE: This article describes an approach for linking electronically extracted EHR data to trauma registry data at the institutional level and assesses the value of probabilistic linkage. METHODS: Encounter data were independently obtained from the EHR data warehouse (n = 1,632) and the pediatric trauma registry (n = 1,829) at a Level I pediatric trauma center. Deterministic linkage was attempted using nine different combinations of medical record number (MRN), encounter identity (ID) (visit ID), age, gender, and emergency department (ED) arrival date. True matches from the best performing variable combination were used to create a gold standard, which was used to evaluate the performance of each variable combination, and to train a probabilistic algorithm that was separately used to link records unmatched by deterministic linkage and the entire cohort. Additional records that matched probabilistically were investigated via chart review and compared against records that matched deterministically. RESULTS: Deterministic linkage with exact matching on any three of MRN, encounter ID, age, gender, and ED arrival date gave the best yield of 1,276 true matches while an additional probabilistic linkage step following deterministic linkage yielded 110 true matches. These records contained a significantly higher number of boys compared to records that matched deterministically and etiology was attributable to mismatch between MRNs in the two data sets. Probabilistic linkage of the entire cohort yielded 1,363 true matches. CONCLUSION: The combination of deterministic and an additional probabilistic method represents a robust approach for linking EHR data to trauma registry data. This approach may be generalizable to studies involving other registries and databases.

Hospital Surge Capacity: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Emergency Planners.

The National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) has created a publicly available simulation tool called Surge (accessible at http://www.pacerapps.org) to estimate surge capacity for user-defined hospitals. Based on user input, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm forecasts available hospital bed capacity over a 7-day period and iteratively assesses the ability to accommodate disaster patients. Currently, the tool can simulate bed capacity for acute mass casualty events (such as explosions) only and does not specifically simulate staff and supply inventory. Strategies to expand hospital capacity, such as (1) opening unlicensed beds, (2) canceling elective admissions, and (3) implementing reverse triage, can be interactively evaluated. In the present application of the tool, various response strategies were systematically investigated for 3 nationally representative hospital settings (large urban, midsize community, small rural). The simulation experiments estimated baseline surge capacity between 7% (large hospitals) and 22% (small hospitals) of staffed beds. Combining all response strategies simulated surge capacity between 30% and 40% of staffed beds. Response strategies were more impactful in the large urban hospital simulation owing to higher baseline occupancy and greater proportion of elective admissions. The publicly available Surge tool enables proactive assessment of hospital surge capacity to support improved decision-making for disaster response. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:513-522).