Risk-based detection as a cost-effective strategy to reduce foodborne illness due to salmonella.

Background: Salmonella, a widespread pathogen, poses a significant threat to global food safety, leading to foodborne diseases and substantial economic losses. The timely and accurate detection of foodborne pathogens is pivotal for averting food contamination and outbreaks across the food production chain. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of traditional culture-based methods versus risk-based approaches, incorporating polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Salmonella detection. Methods: We employed a stochastic scenario tree model to simulate scenarios based on the sampling inspection plan for raw aquatic products conducted by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2018 to 2020. Various detection methods (culture or PCR) were applied to these aquatic products based on their categorized risk level. Sensitivity values were derived from published data, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare the different scenarios against the traditional culture method. Results: A total of 360 samples were collected for analysis. The cost of culture-based detection alone amounted to 125,423.20 Chinese Yuan (CNY) and yielded nine instances of positive Salmonella detections. The risk-based detection strategy, which combined the more sensitive PCR method with high-risk sample characteristics, while employing the culture method for the remaining combinations, imposed a total cost of 128,775.83 CNY and yielded ten positive detections. This approach cost approximately 3391.74 CNY per additional positive sample detected compared to the culture method alone. Meanwhile, PCR-only detection imposed a total cost of 62,960.03 CNY. Conclusions: In comparison to traditional culture-based methods, both the risk-based detection strategy and the PCR-only approach demonstrated superior capabilities with respect to detecting contaminated aquatic products. Implementing risk-based detection strategies can enhance cost-effectiveness, not only ensuring food safety but also reducing the incidence and economic burden of foodborne diseases.

Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to pentachlorophenol in Guangzhou, China.

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a ubiquitous environmental contaminant commonly existing as its sodium salt (NaPCP), which enters the human body primarily through long term but low-level dietary exposure. PCP contributes to chemical carcinogenesis and teratogenesis. In this study, the probabilistic risk of dietary exposure to PCP in Guangzhou citizens was investigated. In total, 923 food samples in the categories of pork, livestock (beef and lamb), poultry, offal, eggs, and freshwater fish (considered to be relatively susceptible to PCP contamination) were collected from various markets in Guangzhou and tested for PCP. Probabilistic risk assessment model calculations for PCP dietary exposure and margin of exposure (MOE) values were performed using @RISK software, based on a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. The overall detection rate of PCP (above 1 µg kg-1, the detection limit) was 19.9% (184/923), with an average of 7.9 µg kg-1. The highest rate of PCP detection, 28.2%, was in livestock (beef and lamb). The MOE value for dietary PCP exposure in general Guangzhou residents averaged 400, which was far below 5,000 (the borderline for judging a health risk). The lowest MOE value, 190, was observed in the 3- to-6-year old population and indicates a significant risk. In conclusion, this study suggests that PCP exposure in Guangzhou residents is of considerable health risk, especially for the pre-school young children.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different screening strategies for colorectal cancer in Guangzhou, southern China: a Markov simulation analysis based on natural community screening results.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different primary screening strategies: high-risk factor questionnaire (HRFQ) alone, single immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT), double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening compared with no screening using the Markov model. METHODS: Treeage Pro V.2011 software was used to simulate the Markov model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which was compared with the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, was used to reflect the cost-effectiveness of the CRC screening method. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used for parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: All strategies had greater effectiveness because they had more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) than no screening. When the WTP was ¥435 762/QALY, all screening strategies were cost-effective compared with no screening. The double iFOBT strategy was the best-buy option compared with all other strategies because it had the most QALYs and the least cost. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the sensitivity of low-risk adenoma, compliance with colonoscopy and primary screening cost were the main influencing factors comparing single iFOBT, double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT with no screening. However, within the scope of this study, there was no fundamental impact on cost-effectiveness. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that when the WTP was ¥435 762/QALY, the probabilities of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve with HRFQ alone, single iFOBT, double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT were 0.0%, 5.3%, 69.3% and 25.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: All screening strategies for CRC were cost-effective compared with no screening strategy. Double iFOBT was the best-buy option compared with all other strategies. The significant influencing factors were the sensitivity of low-risk polyps, compliance with colonoscopy and cost of primary screening.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Dietary Exposure to Chloramphenicol in Guangzhou, China.

Chloramphenicol has been used in veterinary medicine, where its residues can remain in food of animal origin, thus potentially causing adverse health effects. This facilitated the ban for its use in food-producing animals globally, but its residues have remained ubiquitous. In this study, food commodities possibly contaminated with chloramphenicol, including livestock meat, poultry, edible viscera, fish, shrimp and crab, molluscs, milk, and eggs, were collected from domestic retail shops in all the 11 districts of Guangzhou and tested for its residue. Probabilistic risk assessment model calculations for its dietary exposure, and the margin of exposure (displayed as mean values and 5th percentile to 95th percentile ranges) were performed by using @RISK software based on a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. The results indicated the detection of chloramphenicol in 248 out of 1454 samples (17.1%), which averaged to a level of 29.1 µg/kg. The highest average value was observed in molluscs (148.2 µg/kg, with the top value as 8196 µg/kg); meanwhile, based on the dietary structure of a typical Cantonese, pond fish, pork, and poultry meat contributed most (about 80%) to the residents' dietary exposure to chloramphenicol. The margin of exposure for dietary chloramphenicol exposure in Guangzhou residents was 2489, which was apparently below 5000 (the borderline for judging a health risk), particularly low in preschool children (2094, suggesting an increased risk). In conclusion, the study suggests that chloramphenicol exposure in Guangzhou residents is considerable, and its relevant health hazard, especially for preschool children, is worthy of further investigation.

Multiplanar MRI-Based Predictive Model for Preoperative Assessment of Lymph Node Metastasis in Endometrial Cancer.

Introduction: Assessment of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is crucial for treatment decision and prognosis prediction for endometrial cancer (EC). However, the sensitivity of the routinely used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is low in assessing normal-sized LNM (diameter, 0-0.8 cm). We aimed to develop a predictive model based on magnetic resonance (MR) images and clinical parameters to predict LNM in normal-sized lymph nodes (LNs). Materials and Methods: A total of 200 retrospective patients were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 140) and a test cohort (n = 60). All patients underwent preoperative MRI and had pathological result of LNM status. In total, 4,179 radiomic features were extracted. Four models including a clinical model, a radiomic model, and two combined models were built. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and calibration curves were used to assess these models. Subgroup analysis was performed according to LN size. All patients underwent surgical staging and had pathological results. Results: All of the four models showed predictive ability in LNM. One of the combined models, ModelCR1, consisting of radiomic features, LN size, and cancer antigen 125, showed the best discrimination ability on the training cohort [AUC, 0.892; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.834-0.951] and test cohort (AUC, 0.883; 95% CI, 0.786-0.980). The subgroup analysis showed that this model also indicated good predictive ability in normal-sized LNs (0.3-0.8 cm group, accuracy = 0.846; <0.3 cm group, accuracy = 0.849). Furthermore, compared with the routinely preoperative MR report, the sensitivity and accuracy of this model had a great improvement. Conclusions: A predictive model was proposed based on MR radiomic features and clinical parameters for LNM in EC. The model had a good discrimination ability, especially for normal-sized LNs.

[Risk assessment of H5N1 human infection after an outbreak of avian influenza in water fowl].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of human infection after the outbreak of avian influenza H5N1 in animals, and probe the possibility for virus transmission. METHODS: By means of field epidemiological study, molecular epidemiology, serology and emergency surveillance, persons who had ever closely contacted with sick or dead poultry were observed. While, the RT-PCR and gene sequencing method were used to detect H5 nucleic acid from environmental swabs from 4 epidemic spots, and hemagglutination inhibition assay was also used to detect H5 antibody. RESULTS: Of 22 environmental swabs detected from 4 epidemic spots, one was positive for H5 nucleic acid, and the homogeneity was 95.9% as compared with H5N1 virus A/China/GD01/2006 (H5N1) found in Guangzhou in 2006 by gene sequence analysis. 62 environmental swabs from live poultry stalls of food markets near epidemic spot were detected negative. Six of 68 blood samples of contacts were positive for H9 antibody, and all were negative for H5 antibody. 68 throat swabs of contacts were detected negative for H5 nucleic acid. No close contact was found abnormal after 7 days medical observation. 337 influenza-like cases were reported in emergency surveillance, and no suspicious case was found. CONCLUSION: The current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in water fowls has not yet caused further transmission, and human avian influenza case has not been observed. It indicates that the ability of H5N1 virus to transmit to human is not strong yet, and the risk of human infection for H5N1 is still low.