Burden of osteoarthritis in China, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

This study aimed to report the most current data on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) associated with osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2019. Publicly available modelled data from Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were used. The incidence and DALY, due to osteoarthritis in China, stratified by sex, trends of associated risk factors, assess the age, period, and cohort effects on the long-term trends of osteoarthritis incidence and DALY in China from 1990 to 2019. We found that the age-standardized incidence and DALY rates of osteoarthritis in China are higher than the average levels in Asia, Africa, and Oceania. In 2019, the number of cases of osteoarthritis in China was 10,681,311, an increase of 132.66% compared with 1990. the DALY of osteoarthritis in China was 4,724,885 person-years, which was 159.70% higher than that in 1990. In 2019, the incidence and DALY rates of osteoarthritis in China was 750.96/100,000,332.19/100,000. High body-mass as risk factors for osteoarthritis DALY with the population attributable proportion (PAF) increasing steadily from 1990 to 2019. The incidence and DALY rates of three types of osteoarthritis from high to low are osteoarthritis knee, osteoarthritis hand, and osteoarthritis hip. Age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence rate of osteoarthritis in China shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing with age; concurrently, the DALY rate of osteoarthritis in China increased with age. For the period effect, we found that the period rate ratio (RR) of osteoarthritis incidence and DALY rates kept increasing in the cohort born before 2005-2009, and then, it was gradually reduced by year of birth in the cohort born after 2005-2009. As for cohort effect, the cohort RR of incidence rate of osteoarthritis almost has no change, while the cohort RR of DALY rate of osteoarthritis kept increasing from 1990 to 2019. The burden and impact of osteoarthritis in China are substantial and are increasing. Adopting suitable control and preventive community measures to reduce modifiable risk factors is needed to reduce the current and future burden of osteoarthritis in China. Key Points • This paper analyzes the disease burden of osteoarthritis in China for the first time and discusses the influence on the disease burden of osteoarthritis from the perspectives of age, period, and cohort.

Heavy Metal Pollution and Soil Quality Assessment under Different Land Uses in the Red Soil Region, Southern China.

The influences of different land uses associated with human activities on soil quality and the redistribution of heavy metal in soil have been widely concerned. Surface soil samples were obtained to assess comprehensive soil quality in a typical red soil region of southern China, combining the heavy metal pollution evaluation with fertility evaluation. It can be learned from the results that the overall level of soil fertility was at medium and lower level, and soil heavy metal pollution risk in the study area in a few regions had reached warning line and slight pollution line, and there was a risk of potential pollution. TOPSIS evaluation results showed that the comprehensive soil quality was mainly good quality and moderate quality, accounting for 31.7% and 29.0% of the total land area, respectively. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model results showed that transportation source contributes a lot in terms of Cd and Pb. As for Cr, natural source contributes 53.8%. In terms of Cu and Zn, agriculture source contributes 50.7% and 38.7%, respectively. In a word, the comprehensive soil quality assessment in red soil region of southern China provides an important basis for the scientific management and sustainable utilization of soil resources.

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics.

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Risk assessment of airborne COVID-19 exposure in social settings.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many countries oscillating between various states of lock-down as they seek to balance keeping the economy and essential services running and minimizing the risk of further transmission. Decisions are made about which activities to keep open across a range of social settings and venues guided only by ad hoc heuristics regarding social distancing and personal hygiene. Hence, we propose the dual use of computational fluid dynamic simulations and surrogate aerosol measurements for location-specific assessment of risk of infection across different real-world settings. We propose a 3-tiered risk assessment scheme to facilitate classification of scenarios into risk levels based on simulations and experiments. Threshold values of <54 and >840 viral copies and <5% and >40% of original aerosol concentration are chosen to stratify low, medium, and high risk. This can help prioritize allowable activities and guide implementation of phased lockdowns or re-opening. Using a public bus in Singapore as a case study, we evaluate the relative risk of infection across scenarios such as different activities and passenger positions and demonstrate the effectiveness of our risk assessment methodology as a simple and easily interpretable framework. For example, this study revealed that the bus's air-conditioning greatly influences dispersion and increases the risk of certain seats and that talking can result in similar relative risk to coughing for passengers around an infected person. Both numerical and experimental approaches show similar relative risk levels with a Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.74 despite differing observables, demonstrating applicability of this risk assessment methodology to other scenarios.

Wild animal and zoonotic disease risk management and regulation in China: Examining gaps and One Health opportunities in scope, mandates, and monitoring systems.

Emerging diseases of zoonotic origin such as COVID-19 are a continuing public health threat in China that lead to a significant socioeconomic burden. This study reviewed the current laws and regulations, government reports and policy documents, and existing literature on zoonotic disease preparedness and prevention across the forestry, agriculture, and public health authorities in China, to articulate the current landscape of potential risks, existing mandates, and gaps. A total of 55 known zoonotic diseases (59 pathogens) are routinely monitored under a multi-sectoral system among humans and domestic and wild animals in China. These diseases have been detected in wild mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish or other aquatic animals, the majority of which are transmitted between humans and animals via direct or indirect contact and vectors. However, this current monitoring system covers a limited scope of disease threats and animal host species, warranting expanded review for sources of disease and pathogen with zoonotic potential. In addition, the governance of wild animal protection and utilization and limited knowledge about wild animal trade value chains present challenges for zoonotic disease risk assessment and monitoring, and affect the completeness of mandates and enforcement. A coordinated and collaborative mechanism among different departments is required for the effective monitoring and management of disease emergence and transmission risks in the animal value chains. Moreover, pathogen surveillance among wild animal hosts and human populations outside of the routine monitoring system will fill the data gaps and improve our understanding of future emerging zoonotic threats to achieve disease prevention. The findings and recommendations will advance One Health collaboration across government and non-government stakeholders to optimize monitoring and surveillance, risk management, and emergency responses to known and novel zoonotic threats, and support COVID-19 recovery efforts.

The effects of diagnosis-related groups payment on hospital healthcare in China: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There has been a growing interest in using diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) payment to reimburse inpatient care worldwide. But its effects on healthcare and health outcomes are controversial, and the evidence from low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) is especially scarce. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of DRGs payment on healthcare and health outcomes in China. METHOD: A systematic review was conducted. We searched literature databases of PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and SinoMed for empirical studies examining the effects of DRGs payment on healthcare in mainland China. We performed a narrative synthesis of outcomes regarding expenditure, efficiency, quality and equity of healthcare, and assessed the quality of evidence. RESULTS: Twenty-three publications representing thirteen DRGs payment studies were included, including six controlled before after studies, two interrupted time series studies and five uncontrolled before-after studies. All studies compared DRGs payment to fee-for-service, with or without an overall budget, in settings of tertiary (7), secondary (7) and primary care (1). The involved participants varied from specific groups to all inpatients. DRGs payment mildly reduced the length of stay. Impairment of equity of healthcare was consistently reported, especially for patients exempted from DRGs payment, including: patient selection, cost-shifting and inferior quality of healthcare. However, findings on total expenditure, out of pocket payment (OOP) and quality of healthcare were inconsistent. The quality of the evidence was generally low or very low due to the study design and potential risk of bias of included studies. CONCLUSION: DRGs payment may mildly improve the efficiency but impair the equity and quality of healthcare, especially for patients exempted from this payment scheme, and may cause up-coding of medical records. However, DRGs payment may or may not contain the total expenditure or OOP, depending on the components design of the payment. Policymakers should very carefully consider each component of DRGs payment design against policy goals. Well-designed randomised trials or comparative studies are warranted to consolidate the evidence of the effects of DRGs payment on healthcare and health outcomes in LMICs to inform policymaking.

Identification of quantitative trait nucleotides that regulate cancer growth: a simulation approach.

A general growth model derived from basic cellular properties can be used to describe the dynamic process of cancer growth with mathematical equations. It has been recognized that cancer growth is under genetic control, with a multitude of interacting genes each segregating in a Mendelian fashion and displaying environmental sensitivity. In this article, we integrate the mathematical aspects of the pervasive growth model into a statistical framework for the identification of quantitative trait nucleotides that underlie cancer growth. This integrative framework is constructed with a single nucleotide polymorphism-based haplotype blocking analysis. Simulation studies have been performed to demonstrate the usefulness of the model. The proposed model provides a generic platform model for testing and detecting specific DNA sequence variants that regulates the timing of cancer emergence, growth and differentiation.