Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Stroke in Children and Adolescents From 1990 to 2019: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death among children, yet evidence on stroke incidence and prognosis in this population is largely neglected worldwide. The aim of this study was to estimate the latest burden of childhood stroke, as well as trends, risk factors, and inequalities from 1990 to 2019, at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was utilized to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability, years of life lost (YLLs), and average annual percentage changes in stroke among populations aged 0 to 19 years from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: The global age-standardized incidence of stroke increased (average annual percentage change, 0.15% [95% uncertainty interval, 0.09%-0.21%]), while YLLs decreased substantially (average annual percentage change, -3.33% [95% uncertainty interval, -3.38% to -3.28%]) among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2019. Ischemic stroke accounted for 70% of incident cases, and intracerebral hemorrhage accounted for 63% of YLLs. Children under 5 years of age had the highest incidence of ischemic stroke, while adolescents aged 15 to 19 years had the highest incidence of hemorrhagic stroke. In 2019, low-income and middle-income countries were responsible for 84% of incident cases and 93% of YLLs due to childhood stroke. High-sociodemographic index countries had a reduction in YLLs due to stroke that was more than twice as fast as that of low-income and middle-income. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the burden of childhood stroke continues to increase, especially among females, children aged <5 years, and low-sociodemographic index countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa. The burden of childhood stroke is likely undergoing a significant transition from being fatal to causing disability. Global public health policies and the deployment of health resources need to respond rapidly and actively to this shift.

Diabetes burden, trends, and inequalities in western pacific region, 1990-2019: A population-based study.

AIMS: The aim was to describe the diabetes regional burden, trends, and inequalities in the Western Pacific region. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in diabetes in the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2019. Cross-country inequalities in the DALY rates of diabetes were estimated between 1990 and 2019. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Western Pacific region increased from 2.6 to 3.8 per 100,000 population (AAPC, 0.97 [95% CI 0.84 to 1.1]) and from 174.8 to 207.3 per 100,000 population (AAPC, 0.63 [95% CI 0.48 to 0.77]) between 1990 and 2019, respectively. The most substantial increase in the incidence of T1DM and T2DM was found in the groups aged 70 years and older (AAPC, 2.38 [95% CI 2.19 to 2.58]) and 15-49 years (AAPC, 1.58 [95% CI 1.43 to 1.72]) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Age-standardized DALYs for T1DM decreased but those for T2DM increased between 1990 and 2019. The relative concentration index of DALYs in T1DM and T2DM changed from 0.11 in 1990 to -0.08 in 2019 and from 0.03 in 1990 to -0.04 in 2019, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over three decades, diabetes incidence in the Western Pacific region rose substantially, with inequalities among countries. The burden shifted from higher to lower sociodemographic index countries. Diabetes remains a public health challenge, especially among young populations. Urgent interventions for prevention and early detection are crucial.

Global, regional and national burdens of gout in the young population from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of annual incidence, point prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) for gout in adolescents and young adults aged 15-39 years. METHODS: We conducted a serial cross-sectional study of gout burden in the young population aged 15-39 years using data from GBD Study 2019. We extracted rates per 100 000 population of incidence, prevalence and YLD of gout, then calculated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) at the global, regional and national level between 1990 and 2019 by sociodemographic index (SDI). RESULTS: The global gout prevalent cases in individuals aged 15-39 years was 5.21 million in 2019, with the annual incidence substantially increasing from 38.71 to 45.94 per 100 000 population during 1990-2019 (AAPC 0.61, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.65). This substantial increase was observed in all SDI quintiles (low, low-middle, middle, high-middle and high) and every age subgroup (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 and 35-39 years). Males accounted for 80% of the gout burden. High-income North America and East Asia were facing a substantial increase in gout incidence and YLD simultaneously. Elimination of high body mass index can reduce 31.74% of the gout YLD globally in 2019, which varied from 6.97% to 59.31% regionally and nationally. CONCLUSION: Gout incidence and YLD in the young population grew simultaneously and substantially in both developed and developing countries. Improving representative national-level data on gout, interventions for obesity and awareness in young populations are strongly suggested.

Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Blindness and Vision Loss in Children and Adolescents from 1990 to 2019: A Trend Analysis.

PURPOSE: To provide estimates for regional and national burdens of blindness and vision loss among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2019 by disease, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). DESIGN: This was a retrospective demographic analysis based on aggregated data. METHODS: This was a population-based study using 1990-2019 data on the burden of vision loss and blindness from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of vision loss and blindness was evaluated in terms of case numbers, rates per 100 000 population, and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in prevalence rates and years lived with disability (YLDs). RESULTS: Globally, the rates of blindness and vision loss per 100 000 population decreased in all age groups between 1990 and 2019, with prevalence rates decreasing from 1091.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 895.2-1326.1) to 1036.9 (95% UI, 847.8-1265.9, AAPC, -0.2) and YLDs decreasing from 44.5 (95% UI, 28.1-66.5) to 40.2 (95% UI, 25.1-60.7, AAPC, -0.4). Most of these reductions in prevalence rates (AAPC, -0.2, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.2 to -0.1) and YLDs (AAPC, -0.2, 95% CI, -0.3 to -0.2) were due to decreases in refractive disorder. Notably, near-vision loss prevalence (AAPC, 0.3, 95% CI, 0.2-0.4) and YLDs (AAPC, 0.3, 95% CI, 0.2-0.4) substantially increased in all age groups. Children and adolescents in low- and low-middle SDI countries exhibited substantial decreases in the prevalence rates and YLDs of blindness and vision loss, but their counterparts in high- and middle-high SDI countries experienced a substantial increase in prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, efforts in the past 3 decades have substantially decreased the burdens of blindness and vision loss among children and adolescents. However, there is extensive variation according to the kind of impairment, age group, and country SDI. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Development and validation of a risk assessment model for prediabetes in China national diabetes survey.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes risk assessment models derived from large sample sizes are scarce. AIM: To establish a robust assessment model for prediabetes and to validate the model in different populations. METHODS: The China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study (CNDMDS) collected information from 47325 participants aged at least 20 years across China from 2007 to 2008. The Thyroid Disorders, Iodine Status and Diabetes Epidemiological Survey (TIDE) study collected data from 66108 participants aged at least 18 years across China from 2015 to 2017. A logistic model with stepwise selection was performed to identify significant risk factors for prediabetes and was internally validated by bootstrapping in the CNDMDS. External validations were performed in diverse populations, including populations of Hispanic (Mexican American, other Hispanic) and non-Hispanic (White, Black and Asian) participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in the United States and 66108 participants in the TIDE study in China. C statistics and calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the model's discrimination and calibration performance. RESULTS: A set of easily measured indicators (age, education, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure) were selected as significant risk factors. A risk assessment model was established for prediabetes with a C statistic of 0.6998 (95%CI: 0.6933 to 0.7063) and a calibration slope of 1.0002. When externally validated in the NHANES and TIDE studies, the model showed increased C statistics in Mexican American, other Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, Asian and Chinese populations but a slightly decreased C statistic in non-Hispanic White individuals. Applying the risk assessment model to the TIDE population, we obtained a C statistic of 0.7308 (95%CI: 0.7260 to 0.7357) and a calibration slope of 1.1137. A risk score was derived to assess prediabetes. Individuals with scores ≥ 7 points were at high risk of prediabetes, with a sensitivity of 60.19% and specificity of 67.59%. CONCLUSION: An easy-to-use assessment model for prediabetes was established and was internally and externally validated in different populations. The model had a satisfactory performance and could screen individuals with a high risk of prediabetes.

Global, regional, and national burdens of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019: a trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV, are major sexual health issues among adolescents and young adults globally, but data on the burden and trends of these diseases are sparse. We aimed to assess the trends in the burden of HIV and other STIs among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019 on the global, regional, and national level. METHODS: In this trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we reported on the number, rates per 100 000 population, and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of HIV and other STIs (syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomonas, and genital herpes) at the global, regional, and national level among individuals aged 10-24 years. We further analysed these global trends by age, sex, and social development index (SDI). We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the year with the most substantial changes in global trends. FINDINGS: Globally, the incidence of HIV among adolescents and young adults decreased from 34·5 per 100 000 population (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·3 to 39·7) in 1990 to 22·7 per 100 000 population (20·3 to 25·8) in 2019, AAPC -2·6 [95% CI -3·1 to -2·0]); specific years in which HIV incidence decreased significantly were 1998, 2005, and 2014. Incidence of other STIs increased from 6986·3 per 100 000 population (95% UI 5504·8-8645·0) in 1990 to 7088·7 100 000 population (5620·1-8697) in 2019 (AAPC 0·2 [95% CI 0·1-0·3]); we found a substantial decrease in the incidence of other STIs in 2011 only. The rate of decrease in the incidence of other global STIs between 2009 and 2019 was approximately one-fifth the rate of the decrease in the global incidence of HIV for the same time period (AAPC -0·7 [95% CI -0·8 to -0·7] vs AAPC -3·4 [-3·8 to -3·1]). Regionally, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest incidence and highest DALYs from HIV and other STIs, and Oceania and Eastern Europe had the largest increase in the incidence and DALYs from HIV and other STIs between 1990 and 2019. By SDI quintile, the middle-SDI countries had the largest increase in HIV incidence between 1990 and 2019 and the DALYs from other STIs in the same period decreased in all SDI quintiles. Globally, females accounted for 278 076 (65·8%) of the 0·42 million incident HIV cases in 2019 and 68 115 077 (51·6%) of the 132·0 million incident cases of other STIs. Of all age groups, adolescents aged 10-14 years had the largest increase in the incidence of other STIs between 1990 and 2019 (from 1158·9 per 100 000 population [95% UI 857·8-1556·5] in 1990 to 1215·4 per 100 000 population [893·5-1616·1] in 2019; AAPC 0·1 [95% CI 0·1-0·2]). The individual STIs with the highest incident rates varied between age groups and sex. INTERPRETATION: Global HIV incidence among adolescents and young adults decreased between 1990 and 2019, with significant decreases coinciding with the implementation of antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis. The incidence of other STIs in this population increased over the same period and only started decreasing in 2011, at a rate of only one-fifth of the rate of decrease of HIV. Earlier sexual health education and targeted STI screening are urgently required for adolescents and young adults. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.

Burden of carbon monoxide poisoning in China, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is one of the most common toxic occupational diseases, but related data in China are scarce. A better understanding of the burden of CO poisoning is essential for improving its management. Methods: A systematic analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 was conducted. Following the general analytical strategy used in the GBD Study 2019, the sex- and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of CO poisoning and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CO poisoning in China were analyzed. Estimated average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in age-standardized rates were calculated by joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of CO poisoning and DALYs due to CO poisoning were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates as well as DALYs of CO poisoning per 100,000 population were estimated to be 21.82 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.05-29.98], 0.93 (95% UI: 0.63-1.11), and 40.92 (95% UI: 28.43-47.85), respectively, in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPCs in the age-standardized incidence significantly increased in both males and females, while the age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs significantly decreased in both males and females. The incidence of CO poisoning peaked in individuals aged 15-19 years. Males had a higher burden of CO poisoning than females. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incident CO poisoning decreased with age among males and females and that individuals aged 15-24 years had the highest RRs. The RRs of incident CO poisoning increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the incidence increased in successive birth cohorts. Conclusions: The incidence of CO poisoning in China increased from 1990 to 2019. More attention should be given to improving the burden of CO poisoning in Chinese adolescents. The results of this study can be used by health authorities to inform preventative measures to reduce the burden of CO poisoning.

Secular incidence trends and effect of population aging on mortality due to type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes and population aging have become public health issues of global concern. The secular incidence trends and the impact of population aging on mortality due to type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China remain unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The incidence and mortality rates of T1DM and T2DM from 1990 to 2019 were abstracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 database. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change and relative risk (RR), respectively. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population aging, and the mortality rate change from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the T1DM age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 2.01% (95% CI 1.78% to 2.23%) in males and 1.70% (1.61% to 1.80%) in females, and the T1DM age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by 1.96% (-2.22% to -1.71%) in males and 4.02% (-4.48% to -3.57%) in females. The T2DM ASIR increased by 0.81% (0.62% to 0.99%) in males and 0.37% (0.16% to 0.58%) in females, and the T2DM ASMR increased by 1.06% (0.87% to 1.25%) in males and decreased by 0.24% (-0.54% to 0.07%) in females. Compared with 1990, the proportions of deaths attributed to population aging ranged from 18.85% (T1DM) to 148.21% (T2DM) for males and 29.80% (T1DM) to 118.82% (T2DM) for females in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The T1DM and T2DM incidence rates continually increased in China, particularly among young individuals. T1DM-related mortality decreased, while T2DM-related mortality increased in males. Population aging might be associated with a substantial change in the number of deaths from 1990 to 2019. To address the increase in T2DM-related deaths due to population aging, policymakers should promote aging-related health research and implement proven, cost-effective T2DM interventions.

Secular Trends in the Epidemiologic Patterns of Thyroid Cancer in China Over Three Decades: An Updated Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data.

Background: Thyroid cancer is the most common malignant endocrine disease worldwide. The changing epidemiologic pattern of thyroid cancer at the national level in China has remained unknown over the last three decades. Methods: Following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the age- and sex-specific incidence, mortality, and prevalence rates of thyroid cancer in China were analyzed. Trends in the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates significantly increased in both males and females, and the age-standardized mortality rate decreased in females but increased in males. Moreover, the increments in all the age-standardized measures of thyroid cancer in China were higher in males than in females. The age effect showed that those aged 40-44 years had the highest relative risk (RR) among females, and the RR increased with age among males. The incidence increased with time and began to substantially increase in 2009. The cohort effect showed that the incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Conclusions: The burden of thyroid cancer in China showed unexpected patterns that varied by sex, age, and year. Notably, males had higher average annual percentage changes in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates than females. More attention should be given to improving the thyroid cancer burden in males in China.

Effect of Iodine Nutrition on Pregnancy Outcomes in an Iodine-Sufficient Area in China.

Many studies focused on the association between thyroid disease and pregnancy outcomes. The present study explored the effect of iodine nutrition during the first trimester on pregnancy outcomes. One thousand five hundred sixty-nine pregnant, euthyroid women at ≤12 weeks of gestation in an iodine-sufficient area in China were recruited. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for iodine nutrition during pregnancy, participants were divided into four groups: adequate iodine (median urinary iodine concentration (UIC), 150-249 µg/L), mild deficiency (UIC, 100-150 µg/L), moderate and severe deficiency (UIC, <100 µg/L), and more than adequate and excessive (UIC, ≥250 µg/L) groups. Pregnancy outcomes, including abortion, gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), placenta previa, placental abruption, preterm labor, low birth weight infants, macrosomia, breech presentation, and cord entanglement, were obtained during follow-up. The results showed that there was no significant difference in general characteristics, including age, body mass index, abdominal circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, smoking rate, and drinking rate, among the four groups. In the more than adequate and excessive group, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was greater and free thyroxine (FT4) was lower than any other groups but still within normal range. The thyroglobulin (Tg) level was greater in the moderate and severe deficiency group. The incidence of GDM was significantly greater in women with mild iodine deficiency than in women with adequate iodine nutriture (18.38 vs. 13.70%, p < 0.05). Compared with the adequate group, incidence of macrosomia was significantly greater in the more than adequate and excessive group (12.42 vs. 9.79%, p < 0.05). Mild iodine deficiency was an independent risk factor for GDM (odds ratio = 1.566, 95% confidence interval = 1.060-2.313, p = 0.024); more than adequate and excessive iodine was an independent risk factor for macrosomia (OR = 1.917, CI = 1.128-3.256, p = 0.016). In summary, during 1st trimester, both mild iodine deficiency and excessive iodine intake had adverse impacts on pregnancy outcomes in an iodine-sufficient area.