Derivation and validation of a practical risk score for prediction of mortality after open repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms in a US regional cohort and comparison to existing scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE: Scoring systems for predicting mortality after repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs) have not been developed or tested in a United States population and may not be accurate in the endovascular era. Using prospectively collected data from the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE), we developed a practical risk score for in-hospital mortality after open repair of RAAAs and compared its performance to that of the Glasgow aneurysm score, Hardman index, Vancouver score, and Edinburg ruptured aneurysm score. METHODS: Univariate analysis followed by multivariable analysis of patient, prehospital, anatomic, and procedural characteristics identified significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Integer points were derived from the odds ratio (OR) for mortality based on each independent predictor in order to generate a VSGNE RAAA risk score, which was internally validated using bootstrapping methodology. Discrimination and calibration of all models were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (C-statistic) and applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2009, 242 patients underwent open repair of RAAAs at 10 centers. In-hospital mortality was 38% (n = 91). Independent predictors of mortality included age >76 years (OR, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-10.1), preoperative cardiac arrest (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6-12), loss of consciousness (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2-6), and suprarenal aortic clamp (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.6). Patient stratification according to the VSGNE RAAA risk score (range, 0-6) accurately predicted mortality and identified those at low and high risk for death (8%, 25%, 37%, 60%, 80%, and 87% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5, respectively). Discrimination (C = .79) and calibration (χ(2) = 1.96; P = .85) were excellent in the derivation and bootstrap samples and superior to that of existing scoring systems. The Glasgow aneurysm score, Hardman index, Vancouver score, and Edinburg ruptured aneurysm score correlated with mortality in the VSGNE cohort but failed to identify accurately patients with a risk of mortality >65%. CONCLUSIONS: Existing scoring systems predict mortality after RAAA repair in this cohort but do not identify patients at highest risk. This parsimonious VSGNE RAAA risk score based on four variables readily assessed at the time of presentation allows accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality after open repair of RAAAs, including identification of those patients at highest risk for postoperative mortality.

Hospitalization for complications of cirrhosis: does volume matter?

INTRODUCTION: Close to 30,000 people die of cirrhosis in the USA each year. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage with high-volume (HV) hospitals for complex surgical procedures. We examined whether a volume benefit exists for hospitals dealing with specialized disorders like complications of cirrhosis. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified all cases of cirrhosis-related complications (n = 217,948) from 1998 to 2006. Hospital volume was divided into tertile-based admissions for cirrhosis per year. RESULTS: The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary endpoints included length of stay (LOS) and hospital charges. The number of admissions for cirrhosis increased over time (p < 0.0001). HV centers were more likely to be large (86.8%) and teaching (81.5%) hospitals compared to lower volume centers. The average LOS and hospital charges were greater at the HV centers, but hospitalization at a HV center resulted in an adjusted mortality benefit (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.83-0.92) compared to care at lower volume hospitals. CONCLUSION: Despite increased LOS and hospital cost, a mortality benefit exists at HV centers. Future studies are necessary to determine other processes of care that may exist at HV centers that may account for this survival benefit.

Underutilization of therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma in the medicare population.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the United States, and the care of these patients remains highly specialized and complex. Multiple treatment options are available for HCC but their use and effectiveness remain unknown. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked data, 8730 patients who were diagnosed with HCC between 1991 and 2005 were identified. Therapy included surgical resection (8.7%), liver transplantation (1.4%), ablation (3.6%), or transarterial chemoembolization (16%). Patients who received no or palliative-only treatment were grouped together (NoTx; 70.3%). Patient, disease, and tumor factors were examined as determinants of therapy. RESULTS: HCC is increasing in the Medicare population. The median age at diagnosis was 75.1 years and 73.6% of patients were coded as white, 17.2% as Asian, 8.3% as black, and 0.9% as other race. The rate of therapy increased over time, but only 29.7% of patients overall underwent therapy. In patients with early stage HCC, only 43.1% underwent therapy. In the NoTx group, 49.4% did not have cirrhosis, 36.0% had tumors that measured <5 cm, and 39.8% were diagnosed with stage I or II disease when variables were complete. The use of therapy for all HCC patients increased over time, correlating with a commensurate increase in median survival. In multivariate regression analysis, patients who received any modality of treatment achieved significant benefit compared with the NoTx group (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.43). CONCLUSIONS: In the Medicare population, HCC patients who received therapy experienced a substantial survival advantage over their nonoperative peers (NoTx). Despite evidence that many patients had favorable biological characteristics, <30% of patients diagnosed with HCC received any treatment.

Admission volume determines outcome for patients with acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy over the optimal management strategy for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Studies have shown a hospital volume benefit for in-hospital mortality after surgery, and we examined whether a similar mortality benefit exists for patients admitted with AP. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, discharge records for all adult admissions with a primary diagnosis of AP (n = 416,489) from 1998 to 2006 were examined. Hospitals were categorized based on number of patients with AP; the highest third were defined as high volume (HV, >or=118 cases/year) and the lower two thirds as low volume (LV, <118 cases/year). A matched cohort based on propensity scores (n = 43,108 in each group) eliminated all demographic differences to create a case-controlled analysis. Adjusted mortality was the primary outcome measure. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality for patients with AP was 1.6%. Hospital admissions for AP increased over the study period (P < .0001). HV hospitals tended to be large (82%), urban (99%), academic centers (59%) that cared for patients with greater comorbidities (P < .001). Adjusted length of stay was lower at HV compared with LV hospitals (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.90). After adjusting for patient and hospital factors, the mortality rate was significantly lower for patients treated at HV hospitals (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The rates of admissions for AP in the United States are increasing. At hospitals that admit the most patients with AP, patients had a shorter length of stay, lower hospital charges, and lower mortality rates than controls in this matched analysis.

Pharmacodynamic assessment of platelet inhibition by prasugrel vs. clopidogrel in the TRITON-TIMI 38 trial.

AIMS: To examine the extent of platelet inhibition by prasugrel vs. clopidogrel in a TRITON-TIMI 38 substudy. METHODS AND RESULTS: TRITON-TIMI 38 randomized acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to prasugrel or standard dose clopidogrel. Selected sites prospectively enrolled TRITON-TIMI 38 patients to evaluate adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-attenuated phosphorylation of platelet vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein (VASP) (n = 125 patients) and, in a subset (n = 31 patients), ADP-stimulated platelet aggregation. VASP platelet reactivity index (PRI) was lower in prasugrel-treated patients than in clopidogrel-treated patients at 1-2 h post-PCI (>or=1 h after loading dose) (P < 0.001) and at 30 days (P < 0.001). Maximal platelet aggregation to 20 microM ADP was lower in prasugrel-treated patients than in clopidogrel-treated patients at 1-2 h (P = 0.004) and 30 days (P = 0.03). Results were similar with 5 microM ADP. Thienopyridine hyporesponsiveness, prespecified as VASP PRI >50%, was more frequent in clopidogrel-treated patients than in prasugrel-treated patients at 1-2 h (P < 0.001) and 30 days (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The TRITON-TIMI 38 platelet substudy shows that prasugrel results in greater inhibition of ADP-mediated platelet function in ACS patients than clopidogrel, supporting the hypothesis that greater platelet inhibition leads to a lower incidence of ischaemic events and more bleeding both early and late following PCI.