Global burden prediction of gastric cancer during demographic transition from 2020 to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Despite the decline in the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer (GC), the impact of demographic transition on the global burden of GC remains unclear. The current study aimed to estimate the global disease burden through 2040 by age, sex, and region. METHODS: GC data for incident cases and deaths by age group and sex were taken from The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2020. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted through 2040 by fitting a linear regression model over the most recent trend period with the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) data. RESULTS: The global population will grow to 9.19 billion by 2040, accompanied by increasing population ageing. The incidence and mortality rates of GC will show a persistent decrease, with an annual percent change of -0.57% for males and -0.65% for females. East Asia and North America will have the highest and lowest age standardized rates, respectively. A slowdown in the growth of incident cases and deaths will be observed worldwide. The proportion of young and middle-aged individuals will decline, while the percentage of the elderly will increase, and the number of males will be almost twice the number of females. East Asia and high human development index (HDI) regions will be heavily burdened by GC. East Asia had 59.85% of the new cases and 56.23% of deaths in 2020; these will increase to 66.93% and 64.37% by 2040, respectively. The interaction between population growth, the change in ageing structure and the decline in incidence and mortality rates will lead to an increased burden of GC. CONCLUSIONS: Ageing and population growth will offset the decline in the incidence and mortality rate of GC, resulting in a substantial increase in the number of new cases and deaths. The age structure will continue to change, especially in high HDI regions, requiring more targeted prevention strategies in the future.

[Cross subject personality assessment based on electroencephalogram functional connectivity and domain adaptation].

The research shows that personality assessment can be achieved by regression model based on electroencephalogram (EEG). Most of existing researches use event-related potential or power spectral density for personality assessment, which can only represent the brain information of a single region. But some research shows that human cognition is more dependent on the interaction of brain regions. In addition, due to the distribution difference of EEG features among subjects, the trained regression model can not get accurate results of cross subject personality assessment. In order to solve the problem, this research proposes a personality assessment method based on EEG functional connectivity and domain adaption. This research collected EEG data from 45 normal people under different emotional pictures (positive, negative and neutral). Firstly, the coherence of 59 channels in 5 frequency bands was taken as the original feature set. Then the feature-based domain adaptation was used to map the feature to a new feature space. It can reduce the distribution difference between training and test set in the new feature space, so as to reduce the distribution difference between subjects. Finally, the support vector regression model was trained and tested based on the transformed feature set by leave-one-out cross-validation. What's more, this paper compared the methods used in previous researches. The results showed that the method proposed in this paper improved the performance of regression model and obtained better personality assessment results. This research provides a new method for personality assessment.

The significance of time interval between perioperative SOX/XELOX chemotherapy and clinical decision model in gastric cancer.

Introduction: To investigate the influences of time interval between multimodality therapies on survival for locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) patients, 627 patients were included in a retrospective study, and 350 who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) based on SOX (S-1 plus Oxaliplatin)/XELOX (Capecitabine plus Oxaliplatin) treatment, radical surgery, and adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) from 2005.01 to 2018.06 were eligible for analyses. Methods: Three factors were used to assess influences, including time interval from NACT accomplishment to AC initiation (PECTI), time to surgery after NACT accomplishment (TTS), and time to adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery (TAC). Results: Concerning PECTIs, 99 (28.29%) experienced it within 9 weeks, 188 (53.71%) within 9-13 weeks, 63 (18.00%) over 13 weeks. Patients' 5-year overall survival (OS) significantly decreased as trichotomous PECTI increased (78.6% vs 66.7% vs 55.7%, P = .02). Analogously, there was a significant decrease for dichotomous TTS (within vs over 5 weeks) in OS (P = .03) and progression free survival (PFS) (P = .01) but not for dichotomous TAC (within vs over 6 weeks) in OS and PFS (P = .40). Through multivariate Cox analyses, patients with PECTI over 13 weeks had significantly worse OS (P = .03) and PFS (P = .02). Furthermore, extended TTS had significantly worse OS and PFS but insignificantly worse OS and PFS than extended TAC. Therefore, gastric patients receiving perioperative SOX/XELOX chemotherapy and surgery with extended PECTI over 9 weeks or TTS over 5 weeks would have a negative correlation with PFS and OS, and worse when PECTI over 13 weeks. Nomograms (including PECTI, ypT, ypN, Area Under Curve (AUC) = 0.81) could predict patient survival probability and guide intervention with net benefit. Discussion: In control of PECTI, TTS could be extended appropriately, and shortened TAC might make a remedy, and delayed TAC might be allowed when TTS was shortened.

In vivo assessment of Lauren classification for gastric adenocarcinoma using diffusion MRI with a fractional order calculus model.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of a fractional order calculus (FROC) diffusion model for imaging-based assessment of Lauren classification in gastric adenocarcinoma. METHODS: In this study, 43 patients (15 females, 28 males) with gastric adenocarcinoma underwent MRI at 1.5 T. According to pathology-based Lauren classification, 10 patients had diffuse-type, 20 had intestinal-type, and 13 had mixed-type lesions. The diffuse and mixed types were combined as diffuse-and-mixed type to be differentiated from the intestinal type using diffusion MRI. Diffusion-weighted images were acquired by using eleven b-values (0-2000 s/mm2). Three FROC model parameters comprising diffusion coefficient D, intravoxel diffusion heterogeneity ß, and a microstructural quantity µ, together with a conventional apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), were estimated. The mean parameter values in the tumour were computed by using a percentile histogram analysis. Individual or linear combinations of the mean parameters in the tumour were used to differentiate the diffuse-and-mixed type from the intestinal type using descriptive statistics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. RESULTS: Significant differences were observed between diffuse-and-mixed-type and intestinal-type lesions in D (0.99 ± 0.20 µm2/ms vs. 1.11 ± 0.23 µm2/ms; p = 0.036), ß (0.37 ± 0.08 vs. 0.43 ± 0.11; p = 0.043), µ (7.92 ± 2.79 µm vs. 9.87 ± 1.52 µm; p = 0.038), and ADC (0.81 ± 0.34 µm2/ms vs. 0.96 ± 0.19 µm2/ms; p = 0.033). Among the individual parameters, µ produced the largest area under the ROC curve (0.739). The combinations of (D, ß, µ) and (ß and µ) produced the best overall performance with a sensitivity of 0.739, specificity of 0.750, accuracy of 0.744, and area under the curve of 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.657-0.929). CONCLUSION: Diffusion MRI with the FROC model holds promise for non-invasive assessment of Lauren classification for gastric adenocarcinoma. KEY POINTS: • High b-value diffusion MRI with a FROC model that is sensitive to tissue microstructures can differentiate the diffuse-and-mixed type from intestinal type of gastric adenocarcinoma. • The combination of FROC parameters produced the best result for distinguishing the diffuse-and-mixed type from the intestinal type with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.793. • The FROC model parameters, individually or conjointly, hold promise for repeated, non-invasive evaluations of gastric adenocarcinoma at various time points throughout disease progression or regression to complement conventional Lauren classification.

A dynamic analysis of the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market realized volatility: Evidence from China.

Investor sentiment is a research focus in behavior finance. This paper chooses five proxy variables according to China's reality and uses a two-step principal component analysis to construct an investor sentiment index. The five proxy variables are the number of new stock accounts, turnover ratio, margin balance, net active purchasing amount, and investor attention. In the final part of this study, using the price data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Security Exchange, this paper investigates the dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and stock market realized volatility based on the thermal optimal path. The empirical results show that when the market fluctuates severely, investor sentiment leads stock market realized volatility over one or two steps. The prediction power is also checked. The results indicate that investor sentiment indeed forecasts the realized volatility. This research supports regulators and financial institutions in taking advanced measures.

Health economic evaluation of patients with sepsis after gastrointestinal tumor surgery-a cost consequences analysis in China.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the health economics of patients with sepsis after gastrointestinal tumor operation in ICU. METHODS: This case-control study used 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched method and patients were matched according to tumor type, age and gender. The study group was composed of 181 patients with sepsis after operation of gastrointestinal tumor in ICU, while the control group was composed of 181 patients without sepsis after operation of gastrointestinal tumor. The medical expenses and length of stay in the hospital of these patients were analyzed. RESULTS: The median of the total hospitalization cost for the study group was $26,038, which was 1.7 times of the control group (P<0.001). The costs of drugs, laboratory test, examination, treatment, operation, anesthesia, materials, ward and other costs in the study group were higher than those in the control group (P<0.001). The median length of stay in the hospital in the study group was 26 days, which were 12 days longer than that of the control group (P<0.001). However, there was no significant difference in daily average cost between the two groups (P=0.103). CONCLUSIONS: In ICU, patients with sepsis after operation of gastrointestinal tumor increased the cost of hospitalization and prolonged the length of stay in the hospital than those without sepsis.

Assessment of Laparoscopic Distal Gastrectomy After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Laparoscopic distal gastrectomy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy are increasingly used to treat locally advanced gastric cancer. However, the safety and efficacy of the laparoscopic procedure after neoadjuvant chemotherapy remain unclear. Objective: To evaluate the short-term outcomes of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who received either laparoscopic distal gastrectomy or open distal gastrectomy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Between April 23, 2015, and November 16, 2017, a phase 2, open-label, noninferiority randomized clinical trial was conducted at the Gastrointestinal Cancer Center of Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute in Beijing, China. Patients (n = 96) between 18 and 80 years of age with locally advanced gastric cancer (cT2-4aN+M0) who were receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled and randomized. An as-treated population and a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population were defined for the data analysis. Interventions: Patients were randomized to undergo either laparoscopy-assisted distal gastrectomy (LADG) with D2 lymphadenectomy or open distal gastrectomy (ODG) with D2 lymphadenectomy. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was 3-year recurrence-free survival rate. Secondary end points were surgical radicality, 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality, 2-week postoperative recovery indexes, and adjuvant chemotherapy completion status. Results: In total, 95 patients were eligible for as-treated analyses (LADG: 45, of whom 13 were female [29%], with a median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of 59 [52-65] years; ODG: 50, of whom 16 were female [32%], with a median [IQR] age of 61 [55-64] years) and mITT analyses (LADG: 47, of whom 14 were female [30%], with a median [IQR] age of 59 [52-65] years; ODG: 48, of whom 15 were female [31%], with a median [IQR] age of 61 [55-64] years). In the as-treated analyses, the LADG group had a significantly lower postoperative complication rate than the ODG group (20% vs 46%; P = .007). The postoperative visual analog scale score for pain was 1.2 units lower on postoperative day 2 only in the LADG group (95% CI, -2.1 to -0.3; P = .008). Patients in the LADG group had better adjuvant chemotherapy completion (adjusted odds ratio, 4.39; 95% CI, 1.63-11.80; P = .003) and were less likely to terminate adjuvant chemotherapy because of adverse effects (10 [22%] vs 21 [42%]; P = .04). The mITT analyses showed similar results to as-treated analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: This trial found that LADG appears to offer the benefits of better postoperative safety and adjuvant chemotherapy tolerance compared with ODG for patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02404753.

[Comparison of the safety and the costs between laparoscopic assisted or totally laparoscopic uncut Roux-en-Y and BillrothII(+Braun reconstruction--a single center prospective cohort study].

OBJECTIVE: To compare the short-term safety and costs between laparoscopic assisted or totally laparoscopic uncut Roux-en-Y and Billroth II((BII() + Braun reconstruction after radical gastrectomy of distal gastric cancer. METHODS: Clinical data from our prospective database of radical gastrectomy were systematically analyzed. The patients who underwent laparoscopic gastrectomy with uncut Roux-en-Y or BII(+ Braun reconstruction between March 1st, 2015 and June 30th, 2017 were screened out for further analysis. Both the reconstructions were completed by linear staplers. Uncut Roux-en-Y reconstruction was performed with a 45 mm no-knife linear stapler (ATS45NK) on the afferent loop below the gastrojejunostomy. Continuous variables were compared using independent samples t test or Mann-Whitney U. The frequencies of categorical variables were compared using Chi-squared or Fisher exact test. RESULTS: Eighty-one patients were in uncut Roux-en-Y group and 58 patients were in BII(+Braun group. There were no significant differences between uncut Roux-en-Y group and BII(+Braun group in median age (56.0 years vs. 56.5 years, P=0.757), gender (male/female, 52/29 vs. 46/12, P=0.054), history of abdominal surgery (yes/no, 10/71 vs. 4/54, P=0.293), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (yes/no, 21/60 vs. 11/47, P=0.336), BMI (thin/normal/overweight/obesity, 2/49/26/3 vs. 3/39/14/2, P=0.591), NRS 2002 score (1/2/3/4, 58/15/5/3 vs. 47/5/3/3, P=0.403), pathological stage (0/I(/II(/III(, 3/41/20/17 vs. 1/28/13/16, P=0.755), median tumor diameter in long axis (2.5 cm vs. 3.0 cm, P=0.278), median tumor diameter in short axis (2.0 cm vs. 2.0 cm, P=0.126) and some other clinical and pathological characteristics. There were no significant differences between uncut Roux-en-Y group and BII(+Braun group in morbidity of postoperative complication more severe than grade I([12.3% (10/81) vs. 17.2% (10/58), P=0.417], morbidity of anastomotic complication [1.2%(1/81) vs. 0, P=1.000] or hospitalization costs [(94000±14000) yuan vs.(95000±16000) yuan, P=0.895]. The median first time to liquid diet (57.1 hours vs. 70.8 hours, P=0.017) and median postoperative hospital stay (9 days vs. 11 days, P=0.003) of the patients in uncut Roux-en-Y group were shorter than those in BII(+Braun group. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic assisted or totally laparoscopic uncut Roux-en-Y reconstruction after radical gastrectomy of distal gastric cancer is safe and feasible with better recovery than BII(+Braun reconstruction.

[Diagnostic criteria and risk assessment of complications after gastric cancer surgery in western countries].

OBJECTIVE: Postoperative complications are important outcome measurements for surgical quality and safety control. However, the complication registration has always been problematic due to the lack of definition consensus and the other practical difficulties. This narrative review summarizes the data registry system for single institutional registry, national data registry, international multi-center trial registries in the western world, aiming to share the experience of complication classification and data registration. We interviewed Dr. Koh from Royal Prince Alfred Hospital in Australia for single institutional experience, Dr. van der Wielen and Dr. Desideriofor, from two international multi-center trial(STOMACH) and registry (IMIGASTRIC) respectively, and Prof. Dr. Wijnhoven from the Dutch Upper GI Audit(DUCA). The major questions include which complications are obligated to report in the respective registry, what are the definitions of those complications, who perform the registration, and how are the complications evaluated or classified. Four telephone conferences were initiated to discuss the above-mentioned topics. The DUCA and IMGASTRIC provided the definition of the major complications. The consent definition provided by DUCA was based on the LOW classification which came out after a four-year discussion and consensus meeting among international experts in the according field. However, none of the four registries asked for an obligatory standardization of the diagnostic criteria among the participating centers or surgeons. Instead, all the registries required a detailed recording of the diagnostic strategy and classification of the complications with the Clavien-Dindo scoring system. Most data were registered by surgeons or data managers during or immediately after the hospitalization. The investigators or an independent third party conducted the auditing of the data quality. Standardization of complication diagnosis among different centers is a difficult task, consuming much effort and time. On top of that, standardization of the complication registration is of critical and practical importance. We encourage all centers to register complications with the diagnostic criteria and following intervention. Based on this, the Clavien-Dindo classification can be properly justified, which has been widely accepted by most centers and should be routinely used as the standard evaluation system for postoperative complications in gastric tumor surgery.