Medicare Advantage in rural areas: implications for hospital sustainability.

OBJECTIVES: A growing number of Medicare beneficiaries in rural areas are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans, which negotiate hospital reimbursement. This study examined the association between Medicare Advantage penetration levels in rural areas and hospital financial distress and closure. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study followed rural general acute care hospitals open in 2008 through 2019 or until closure using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases for 14 states. METHODS: The primary independent variables were the percentage of Medicare Advantage stays out of total Medicare stays at the hospital and the percentage of Medicare Advantage beneficiaries out of total beneficiaries in the hospital's county. Financial distress was defined using the Altman Z score, where values less than or equal to 1.1 indicate financial distress and values greater than 2.8 indicate stability. The Z score was examined as a continuous outcome in hospital and county fixed-effects models. Risk of closure was examined using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for hospital and market factors. RESULTS: Rural hospital Medicare Advantage penetration grew from 6.5% in 2008 to 20.6% in 2019. A 1-percentage point increase in hospital penetration was associated with an increase in financial stability of 0.04 units on the Altman Z score (95% CI, 0.00-0.08; P = .03) and a 4% reduction in risk of closure (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-1.00; P = .04). Results were consistent when measuring Medicare Advantage penetration at the county level. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings counter the notion that Medicare Advantage plans financially hurt rural hospitals because they pay less generously than traditional Medicare.

Estimating acceptable exposure time for bioaerosols emission in a wastewater treatment plant by reverse quantitative microbial risk assessment based on various risk benchmarks.

Populations exposed to bioaerosols over time in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) will be infected. Then, the reverse quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) provides a quantitative framework for the estimation of acceptable exposure time to protect people from excessive exposure and then manage their health risk. In this study, the acceptable exposure time for staffs and visiting researchers exposed to S. aureus or E. coli bioaerosols emitted from aeration ponds in WWTPs was estimated and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation-based reverse QMRA (using the 1E-4 pppy suggested by the US EPA or 1E-6 DALYs pppy suggested by the WHO as benchmarks). The 1E-3 and 1E-2 pppy were selected as a series of loose annual infection risk benchmarks to calculate a practical acceptable exposure time. The results showed that for the acceptable exposure time in each specific exposure scenario, the exposure of females was consistently 0.3-0.4 times longer than that of males; the exposure of staffs was 3.6-3.9 times shorter than that of visiting researchers; the exposures of populations in the rotating-disc aeration mode were consistently 6.3-6.6 and 2.8-3.1 times longer than those in the microporous aeration mode for S. aureus and E. coli bioaerosols, respectively. The acceptable exposure time with the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) was 33.4-35.0 times as long as that without PPE. The US EPA benchmark is stricter than the WHO benchmark with regard to the estimation of the acceptable exposure time of S. aureus or E. coli bioaerosols. The 1E-3 pppy is more appropriate and practical than the US EPA benchmark, but the 1E-2 pppy is notably too loose for health risk management. This research can assist managers of WWTPs to formulate a justified exposure time and develop applicable administrative and personal intervention strategies. The results can enrich the knowledge bases of reverse QMRA to elect a series of loose health-based target risk benchmarks for health risk management.

Access To Obstetric, Behavioral Health, And Surgical Inpatient Services After Hospital Mergers In Rural Areas.

Despite rural hospitals' central role in their communities, they are increasingly in financial distress and may merge with other hospitals or health systems, potentially reducing service lines that are less profitable or duplicative of services that the acquirer also offers. Using hospital discharge data from thirty-two Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases from the period 2007-18, we examined the influence of rural hospital mergers on changes to inpatient service lines at hospitals and within their catchment areas. We found that merged hospitals were more likely than independent hospitals to eliminate maternal/neonatal and surgical care. Whereas the number of mental/substance use disorder-related stays decreased or remained stable at merged hospitals and within their catchment areas, it increased for unaffiliated hospitals and their catchment areas, indicating a potential unmet need in the communities of rural hospitals postmerger. Although a merger could salvage a hospital's sustainability, it also could reduce service lines and responsiveness to community needs.

Quality of Care Before and After Mergers and Acquisitions of Rural Hospitals.

Importance: Rural hospitals are increasingly merging with other hospitals. The associations of hospital mergers with quality of care need further investigation. Objectives: To examine changes in quality of care for patients at rural hospitals that merged compared with those that remained independent. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this case-control study, mergers at community nonrehabilitation hospitals in Federal Office of Rural Health Policy-eligible zip codes during 2009 to 2016 in 32 states were identified from Irving Levin Associates and the American Hospital Association Annual Survey. Outcomes for inpatient stays for select conditions and elective procedures were derived from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases. Difference-in-differences linear probability models were used to assess premerger to postmerger changes in outcomes for patients discharged from merged vs comparison hospitals that remained independent. Data were analyzed from February to December 2020. Exposures: Hospital mergers. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was in-hospital mortality among patients admitted for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, stroke, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hip fracture, or pneumonia, as well as complications during stays for elective surgeries. Results: A total of 172 merged hospitals and 266 comparison hospitals were analyzed. After matching, baseline patient characteristics were similar for 303 747 medical stays and 175 970 surgical stays at merged hospitals and 461 092 medical stays and 278 070 surgical stays at comparison hospitals. In-hospital mortality among AMI stays decreased from premerger to postmerger at merged hospitals (9.4% to 5.0%) and comparison hospitals (7.9% to 6.3%). Adjusting for patient, hospital, and community characteristics, the decrease in in-hospital mortality among AMI stays 1 year postmerger was 1.755 (95% CI, -2.825 to -0.685) percentage points greater at merged hospitals than at comparison hospitals (P < .001). This finding held up to 4 years postmerger (DID, -2.039 [95% CI, -3.388 to -0.691] percentage points; P = .003). Greater premerger to postmerger decreases in mortality at merged vs comparison hospitals were also observed at 5 years postmerger among stays for heart failure (DID, -0.756 [95% CI, -1.448 to -0.064] percentage points; P = .03), stroke (DID, -1.667 [95% CI, -3.050 to -0.283] percentage points; P = .02), and pneumonia (DID, -0.862 [95% CI, -1.681 to -0.042] percentage points; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that rural hospital mergers were associated with better mortality outcomes for AMI and several other conditions. This finding is important to enhancing rural health care and reducing urban-rural disparities in quality of care.

Obesity counseling by pediatric health professionals: an assessment using nationally representative data.

OBJECTIVE: Examine the rate of screening for adolescent overweight and obesity by pediatric health care professionals and the provision of advice on healthy eating and physical activity. METHODS: Our sample contains adolescents 11 to 17 years old (6911 girls and 6970 boys) from the 2001-2007 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey who reported having at least 1 health provider visit in the previous 12 months. Using logistic regression, we investigated factors associated with whether parents reported that their children were weighed and measured and whether they or their children received counseling on their eating habits and physical activity. All models were estimated separately by gender. RESULTS: Forty-seven percent of girls and 44% of boys who visited a health provider were advised to eat healthy, and 36% of boys and girls were advised to exercise more. Obese boys and girls were both more likely to be advised to eat healthy (odds ratio [OR] = 2.10, P < .001 and OR = 1.70, P < .001) and exercise more (OR = 2.37, P < .001 and OR = 1.90, P < .001) than adolescents who have normal weight. However, overweight boys and girls were counseled at a much lower rate than those who were obese. Adolescents who were more likely to receive such advice lived in the northeast, were from higher-income households, had parents with at least some college education, and had a usual source of medical care. CONCLUSIONS: Greater efforts should be made to incorporate guidelines on childhood obesity screening and counseling into clinical practice.

Will all Americans become overweight or obese? estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic.

We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity-related health-care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health-care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health-care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46-0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican-American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >/= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health-care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7-956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16-18% of total US health-care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections .

Prices, policies and youth smoking, May 2001.

Youth smoking continues to be an important public health problem. Many policy tools designed to reduce youth smoking are based on economic principles. This paper describes the economic and policy context of tobacco use aiming at reducing youth smoking and explains the economic rationale for tobacco control tools such as excise tax and price, clean indoor air laws, youth access laws and the broad provision of health information to the public. An overview of economic models of addiction provides the framework for empirical analysis of the impact of these policies. This is followed by a summary of the empirical evidence of the effectiveness of various tobacco control tools that are primarily economic in nature. The most consistent finding in this literature is that higher cigarette prices discourage youth smoking. Compared to the effects of cigarette taxation and price on youth smoking, the evidence on the effectiveness of the youth access laws and clean indoor air laws are still mixed and inconclusive. More research is needed to address issues such as: (1) the effects of gender, age, race and socio-economic status on the relationship between tobacco control policies and youth smoking; (2) better measurement of the outcome variables to account for the multi-dimensional nature of dependence; and (3) the effects of excise taxes and other tobacco control policies with regard to a host of dimensions of smoking such as initiation, cessation, and more generally the trajectories of tobacco use that would include patterns of progression, maintenance, regression, cessation, and relapse. More frequently collected longitudinal data than those currently available are needed to address the above issues. Understanding smoking behavior cannot be achieved without incorporating familial and other social contexts.

Differential effects of cigarette price on youth smoking intensity.

OBJECTIVES: Data from the 1992, 1993, and 1994 Monitoring the Future Surveys were used to investigate the differential effects of cigarette price on the intensity of youth cigarette smoking. METHODS: Respondents were classified into non-smokers; individuals who smoked less than one cigarette per day; individuals who smoked one to five cigarettes per day; individuals who smoked one-half pack a day; and individuals who smoked one pack or more a day. A Threshold of Change Model was estimated with information on cigarette prices as the main explanatory variables. RESULTS: Dummy variables indicating medium and high prices were found to have varying effects on different levels of smoking intensity, even though higher prices were associated with lower smoking in all cases. The differences are more striking in the high-price case. The effects of higher prices are largest at the heaviest smoking levels. CONCLUSION: Cigarette prices are an effective tool to discourage youth smoking. The differential effects of cigarette price on smoking intensity warrant further investigation.