Gender, union formation, and assortative mating among older women.

This paper presents a search-theoretic model of union formation among women, aged 55 and older. Specifically, it provides new estimates of gender differentials in cohabitation and marriage at older ages, and documents recent patterns of assortative mating using data from the 2008-2017 American Community Survey. Our analyses reveal that cohabitation represents a much smaller share of all older unmarried women, all partnered women, and all women in comparison to patterns observed among their male counterparts. The results also reveal highly uneven patterns of union formation by age, race and marital history, which reflect demographically uneven constraints and preferences. Our analyses also document, for the first time, patterns of assortative mating at older ages. Shortages of similarly-aged men, especially among older African American women, seemingly heighten the likelihood of demographically mismatched unions. Older women are less likely to form unions with same-race or economically attractive partners, defined as men having a college-degree. This study shows that older single women, in general, are at a comparative disadvantage in the marriage market, both in forming co-residential unions and in finding partners who match their own social, demographic, and economic profiles. This paper highlights considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of America's older women. It calls for new theoretical approaches that acknowledge the unequal resources and bargaining power among older women in the marriage market.

Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America.

We highlight the paradoxical implications of decadal reclassification of U.S. counties (and America's population) from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status between 1960 and 2017. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we show that the reclassification of U.S. counties has been a significant engine of metropolitan growth and nonmetropolitan decline. Over the study period, 753-or nearly 25% of all nonmetropolitan counties-were redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as metropolitan, shifting nearly 70 million residents from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan America by 2017. All the growth since 1970 in the metropolitan share of the U.S. population came from reclassification rather than endogenous growth in existing metropolitan areas. Reclassification of nonmetropolitan counties also had implications for drawing appropriate inferences about rural poverty, population aging, education, and economic growth. The paradox is that these many nonmetropolitan "winners"-those experiencing population and economic growth-have, over successive decades, left behind many nonmetropolitan counties with limited prospects for growth. Our study provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and economic malaise but also highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

Rural-Urban Disparities in Pregnancy Intentions, Births, and Abortions Among US Adolescent and Young Women, 1995-2017.

Objectives. To examine rural-suburban-urban disparities in intendedness and resolution of first pregnancies among adolescent and young women (aged 15-19 and 20-24 years) across racial/ethnic backgrounds in the United States.Methods. We used the National Survey of Family Growth and pooled pregnancy files from 2002 through the 2015-2017 surveys. We report baseline rural-suburban-urban disparities in first pregnancy intention and outcomes. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate these disparities, accounting for sociodemographic background, religious upbringing, and other factors.Results. The first adolescent pregnancies of rural women were more likely to be unintended and end in live birth relative to their urban counterparts. Disparities were most striking among Black adolescents, with about 60% of first adolescent pregnancies among rural Black women being unintended and ending in live birth (urban: 51%). Newly collected state health department data on rural and urban adolescent births and abortions corroborate the findings from the National Survey of Family Growth.Conclusions. Rural-urban differences in the share of first adolescent pregnancies ending in live births are not accounted for by pregnancy intention or confounding individual-level characteristics. Future research should explore the role of structural barriers, including access to family planning and abortion services.

Marriage Markets and Intermarriage: Exchange in First Marriages and Remarriages.

Drawing on data from the American Community Survey, we compare patterns of assortative mating in first marriages, remarriages, and mixed-order marriages. We identify a number of ascribed and achieved characteristics that are viewed as resources available for exchange, both as complements and substitutes. We apply conditional logit models to show how patterns of assortative mating among never-married and previously married persons are subject to local marriage market opportunities and constraints. The results reveal that previously married individuals "cast a wider net": spousal pairings are more heterogamous among remarriages than among first marriages. Marital heterogamy, however, is reflected in systematic evidence of trade-offs showing that marriage order (i.e., status of being never-married) is a valued trait for exchange. Never-married persons are better positioned than previously married persons to marry more attractive marital partners, variously measured (e.g., highly educated partners). Previously married persons-especially women-are disadvantaged in the marriage market, facing demographic shortages of potential partners to marry. Marriage market constraints take demographic expression in low remarriage rates and in heterogamous patterns of mate selection in which previously married partners often substitute other valued characteristics in marriage with never-married persons.

Diverging fortunes? Economic well-being of Latinos and African Americans in new rural destinations.

The geographic diffusion of Latinos from immigrant gateways to newly-emerging rural destinations is one of the most significant recent trends in U.S. population redistribution. Yet, few studies have explored how Latinos have fared in new destinations, and even fewer have examined economic implications for other minority workers and their families. We use county-level data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census and the 2006-2010 American Community Survey to compare the changing economic circumstances (e.g., employment and unemployment, poverty, income, and homeownership) of Latinos and African Americans in new Latino boomtowns. We also evaluate the comparative economic trajectories of Latinos in new destinations and established gateways. During the 1990s, new rural destinations provided clear economic benefits to Latinos, even surpassing African Americans on some economic indicators. The 2000s, however, ushered in higher rates of Latino poverty; the economic circumstances of Latinos also deteriorated more rapidly in new vis-à-vis traditional destinations. By 2010, individual and family poverty rates in new destinations were significantly higher among Latinos than African Americans, despite higher labor force participation and lower levels of unemployment. Difference-in-difference models demonstrate that in both the 1990s and 2000s, economic trajectories of African Americans in new Latino destinations largely mirrored those observed in places without large Latino influxes. Any economic benefits for Latinos in new rural destinations thus have not come at the expense of African Americans.

Cohabitation, post-conception unions, and the rise in nonmarital fertility.

The majority of U.S. nonmarital births today are to cohabiting couples. This study focuses on transitions to cohabitation or marriage among pregnant unmarried women during the period between conception and birth. Results using the newly-released 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth show that nonmarital pregnancy is a significant precursor to cohabitation before childbirth (18%), exceeding transitions to marriage (5%) by factor of over three. For pregnant women, the boundaries between singlehood, cohabitation, and marriage are highly fluid. The results also reveal substantial variation in post-conception cohabiting and marital unions; e.g., disproportionately low percentages of black single and cohabiting women transitioned into marriage, even when conventional social and economic risk factors are controlled. The multivariate analyses also point to persistent class differences in patterns of family formation, including patterns of cohabitation and marriage following conception. Poorly educated women, in particular, are much more likely to become pregnant as singles living alone or as partners in cohabiting unions. But compared with college-educated women, pregnancies are less likely to lead to either cohabitation or marriage. This paper highlights the conceptual and technical challenges involved in making unambiguous interpretations of nonmarital fertility during a period of rising nonmarital cohabitation.

Integration or fragmentation? Racial diversity and the American future.

Over the next generation or two, America's older, largely white population will increasingly be replaced by today's disproportionately poor minority children. All future growth will come from populations other than non-Hispanic whites as America moves toward a majority-minority society by 2043. This so-called Third Demographic Transition raises important implications about changing racial boundaries in the United States, that is, about the physical, economic, and sociocultural barriers that separate different racial and ethnic groups. America's racial transformation may place upward demographic pressure on future poverty and inequality as today's disproportionately poor and minority children grow into adult roles. Racial boundaries will be reshaped by the changing meaning of race and ethnicity, shifting patterns of racial segregation in neighborhoods and the workplace, newly integrating (or not) friendship networks, and changing rates of interracial marriage and childbearing. The empirical literature provides complicated lessons and offers few guarantees that growing racial diversity will lead to a corresponding breakdown in racial boundaries-that whites and minorities will increasingly share the same physical and social spaces or interact as coequals. How America's older population of elected officials and taxpayers responds today to America's increasingly diverse population will provide a window to the future, when today's children successfully transition (or not) into productive adult roles. Racial and ethnic inclusion will be reshaped by changing ethnoracial inequality, which highlights the need to invest in children-now.

Immigration and the New Racial Diversity in Rural America.

This article highlights the new racial and ethnic diversity in rural America, which may be the most important but least anticipated population shift in recent demographic history. Ethnoracial change is central to virtually every aspect of rural America over the foreseeable future: agro-food systems, community life, labor force change, economic development, schools and schooling, demographic change, intergroup relations, and politics. The goal here is to plainly illustrate how America's racial and ethnic transformation has emerged as an important dimension of ongoing U.S. urbanization and urbanism, growing cultural and economic heterogeneity, and a putative "decline in community" in rural America. Rural communities provide a natural laboratory for better understanding the implications of uneven settlement and racial diversity, acculturation, and economic and political incorporation among Hispanic newcomers. This article raises the prospect of a new racial balkanization and outlines key impediments to full incorporation of Hispanics into rural and small town community life. Immigration and the new ethnoracial diversity will be at the leading edge of major changes in rural community life as the nation moves toward becoming a majority-minority society by 2042.

Reproductive inequality in sub-Saharan Africa: differentials versus concentration.

Within developing countries, our understanding of reproductive inequality-how fertility is distributed within a population-has been shaped largely by studies of fertility differentials, a practical but partial-information measure. In this study, we examine whether exclusive reliance on differentials biases this understanding. Findings based on recent data from sub-Saharan Africa show bias. We find that historical and especially cross-country comparisons can yield substantially different conclusions about the magnitude and even the direction of inequality patterns and trends, depending on whether differentials or fuller-information measures are used. For instance, the fertility differentials associated with education have remained relatively stable as national fertility has fallen, but inequality (as calculated by a fuller measure) has increased. Such results underscore the value of complementing existing studies of fertility differentials with analyses based on fuller-information measures. The analyses also show how change in differential fertility behavior and in the educational composition of national populations has shaped recent variations in reproductive inequality in the region.

Marriage or dissolution? Union transitions among poor cohabiting women.

The objective of this paper is to identify the incentives and barriers to marriage among cohabiting women, especially disadvantaged mothers who are targets of welfare reform. We use the newly released cohabitation data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979-2000), which tracks the partners of cohabiting women across survey waves. Our results support several conclusions. First, cohabiting unions are short-lived--about one-half end within one year, and over 90% end by the fifth year. Unlike most previous research, our results show that most cohabiting unions end by dissolution of the relationship rather than by marriage. Second, transitions to marriage are especially unlikely among poor women; less than one-third marry within five years. Cohabitation among poor women is more likely than that among nonpoor women to be a long-term alternative or substitute for traditional marriage. Third, our multinomial analysis of transitions from cohabitation into marriage or dissolution highlights the salience of economically disadvantaged family backgrounds, cohabitation and fertility histories, women's economic resources, and partner characteristics. These results are interpreted in a policy environment that increasingly views marriage as an economic panacea for low-income women and their children.

Marriage among unwed mothers: whites, blacks and Hispanics compared.

CONTEXT: Much of the debate over welfare reauthorization centers on whether marriage promotion should play a key role. Few studies, however, have tracked the marriage and divorce histories of unwed mothers, including minority women, who are often the main targets of welfare reform. METHODS: Data from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth were used to estimate the hazards of the transition to marriage for women who delayed childbearing until marriage and for teenagers and older women who had a nonmarital first birth, and of the transition to divorce among the ever-married. Life-table estimates calculated with these estimated transition hazards show the cumulative proportions married and divorced, by race and ethnicity, for women who had a nonmarital first birth and for those who did not. RESULTS Nonmarital childbearing reduces the likelihood of marriage. Some 82% of white women, 62% of Hispanics and 59% of blacks who had a nonmarital first birth had married by age 40; the corresponding proportions among those who avoided nonmarital childbearing were 89%, 93% and 76%, respectively. There is no evidence to suggest that the negative effect of nonmarital childbearing on marriage is caused by other observed or unobserved differences between unwed mothers and women who remain childless until marriage. Nonmarital childbearing raises the likelihood of divorce among unwed mothers who eventually marry, a finding that also varies by race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Marriage promotion policies should focus on lowering rates of nonmarital childbearing. Reductions in nonmarital childbearing, however, may not eliminate long-standing discrepancies in marriage rates between black and white women.