The humble estimate: Humility predicts higher self-assessment accuracy.

Humility is thought to be associated with greater accuracy in self-assessment. However, clear evidence is lacking. Two studies tested this central proposition. In Study 1 (N = 258), participants completed a task on logical reasoning before estimating both their raw and relative performance. Study 2 (N = 214) was aimed at replicating Study 1 with a task on English fluency. Results from both studies were consistent. There was evidence of overestimation bias across each sample in which participants' estimated performance was higher than their actual performance. More importantly, humility was associated with less overestimation bias, such that the difference in estimated and actual performance was smaller or non-existent among those higher in humility. We also replicated the Dunning-Kruger effect in which participants of lower ability in these skills (i.e., lower actual scores) were most likely to overestimate their performance. Further analyses found that the negative relationship between humility and overestimation bias was not moderated by actual performances. However, the same analyses revealed that the Dunning-Kruger effect was also not moderated by humility. Hence, there is strong replicable evidence that humility is associated with less overestimation bias, supporting the view that greater accuracy in self-assessment is an attribute of humility, and that this relationship is independent of actual ability, but humility does not affect the robust Dunning-Kruger effect.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence by Community Survey and Residual Specimens, Denver, Colorado, July-August 2020.

OBJECTIVES: The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is underestimated in surveillance data. Various approaches to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 have different resource requirements and generalizability. We estimated the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Denver County, Colorado, via a cluster-sampled community survey. METHODS: We estimated the overall seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 via a community seroprevalence survey in Denver County in July 2020, described patterns associated with seroprevalence, and compared results with cumulative COVID-19 incidence as reported to the health department during the same period. In addition, we compared seroprevalence as assessed with a temporally and geographically concordant convenience sample of residual clinical specimens from a commercial laboratory. RESULTS: Based on 404 specimens collected through the community survey, 8.0% (95% CI, 3.9%-15.7%) of Denver County residents had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an infection rate of about 7 times that of the 1.1% cumulative reported COVID-19 incidence during this period. The estimated infection-to-reported case ratio was highest among children (34.7; 95% CI, 11.1-91.2) and males (10.8; 95% CI, 5.7-19.3). Seroprevalence was highest among males of Black race or Hispanic ethnicity and was associated with previous COVID-19-compatible illness, a previous positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, and close contact with someone who had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Testing of 1598 residual clinical specimens yielded a seroprevalence of 6.8% (95% CI, 5.0%-9.2%); the difference between the 2 estimates was 1.2 percentage points (95% CI, -3.6 to 12.2 percentage points). CONCLUSIONS: Testing residual clinical specimens provided a similar seroprevalence estimate yet yielded limited insight into the local epidemiology of COVID-19 and might be less representative of the source population than a cluster-sampled community survey. Awareness of the limitations of various sampling strategies is necessary when interpreting findings from seroprevalence assessments.

District Health Officer Perceptions of PEPFAR's Influence on the Health System in Uganda, 2005-2011.

BACKGROUND: Vertically oriented global health initiatives (GHIs) addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), have successfully contributed to reducing HIV/AIDS related morbidity and mortality. However, there is still debate about whether these disease-specific programs have improved or harmed health systems overall, especially with respect to non-HIV health needs. METHODS: As part of a larger evaluation of PEPFAR's effects on the health system between 2005-2011, we collected qualitative and quantitative data through semi-structured interviews with District Health Officers (DHOs) from all 112 districts in Uganda. We asked DHOs to share their perceptions about the ways in which HIV programs (largely PEPFAR in the Ugandan context) had helped and harmed the health system. We then identified key themes among their responses using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Ugandan DHOs said PEPFAR had generally helped the health system by improving training, integrating HIV and non-HIV care, and directly providing resources. To a lesser extent, DHOs said PEPFAR caused the health system to focus too narrowly on HIV/AIDS, increased workload for already overburdened staff, and encouraged doctors to leave public sector jobs for higher-paid positions with HIV/AIDS programs. CONCLUSION: Health system leaders in Uganda at the district level were appreciative of resources aimed at HIV they could often apply for broader purposes. As HIV infection becomes a chronic disease requiring strong health systems to manage sustained patient care over time, Uganda's weak health systems will require broad infrastructure improvements inconsistent with narrow vertical health programming.

Did PEPFAR investments result in health system strengthening? A retrospective longitudinal study measuring non-HIV health service utilization at the district level.

OBJECTIVES : PEPFAR's initial rapid scale-up approach was largely a vertical effort focused fairly exclusively on AIDS. The purpose of our research was to identify spill-over health system effects, if any, of investments intended to stem the HIV epidemic over a 6-year period with evidence from Uganda. The test of whether there were health system expansions (aside from direct HIV programming) was evidence of increases in utilization of non-HIV services-such as outpatient visits, in-facility births or immunizations-that could be associated with varying levels of PEPFAR investments at the district level. METHODS : Uganda's Health Management Information System article-based records were available from mid-2005 onwards. We visited all 112 District Health offices to collect routine monthly reports (which contain data aggregated from monthly facility reports) and annual reports (which contain data aggregated from annual facility reports). Counts of individuals on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) at year-end served as our primary predictor variable. We grouped district-months into tertiles of high, medium or low PEPFAR investment based on their total reported number of patients on ART at the end of the year. We generated incidence-rate ratios, interpreted as the relative rate of the outcome measure in relation to the lowest investment PEPFAR tertile, holding constant control variables in the model. RESULTS : We found PEPFAR investment overall was associated with small declines in service volumes in several key areas of non-HIV care (outpatient care for young children, TB tests and in-facility deliveries), after adjusting for sanitation, elementary education and HIV prevalence. For example, districts with medium and high ART investment had 11% fewer outpatient visits for children aged 4 and younger compared with low investment districts, incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.89 for high investment compared with low (95% CI, 0.85-0.94) and IRR of 0.93 for medium compared with low (0.90-0.96). Similarly, 22% fewer TB sputum tests were performed in high investment districts compared with low investment, [IRR 0.78 (0.72-0.85)] and 13% fewer in medium compared with low, [IRR 0.88 (0.83-0.94)]. Districts with medium and high ART investment had 5% fewer in-facility deliveries compared with low investment districts [IRR 0.95 for high compared with low, (91-1.00) and 0.96 for medium compared with low (0.93-0.99)]. Although not statistically significant, the rate of maternal deaths in high investment district-months was 13% lower than observed in low investment districts. CONCLUSIONS : This study sought to understand whether PEPFAR, as a vertical programme, may have had a spill-over effect on the health system generally, as measured by utilization. Our conclusion is that it did not, at least not in Uganda.

Individual-level socioeconomic status and community-level inequality as determinants of stigma towards persons living with HIV who inject drugs in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam.

INTRODUCTION: HIV infection may be affected by multiple complex socioeconomic status (SES) factors, especially individual socioeconomic disadvantage and community-level inequality. At the same time, stigma towards HIV and marginalized groups has exacerbated persistent concentrated epidemics among key populations, such as persons who inject drugs (PWID) in Vietnam. Stigma researchers argue that stigma fundamentally depends on the existence of economic power differences in a community. In rapidly growing economies like Vietnam, the increasing gap in income and education levels, as well as an individual's absolute income and education, may create social conditions that facilitate stigma related to injecting drug use and HIV. METHODS: A cross-sectional baseline survey assessing different types of stigma and key socioeconomic characteristics was administered to 1674 PWID and 1349 community members living in physical proximity throughout the 32 communes in Thai Nguyen province, Vietnam. We created four stigma scales, including HIV-related and drug-related stigma reported by both PWID and community members. We then used ecologic Spearman's correlation, ordinary least-squares regression and multi-level generalized estimating equations to examine community-level inequality associations, individual-level SES associations and multi-level SES associations with different types of stigma, respectively. RESULTS: There was little urban-rural difference in stigma among communes. Higher income inequality was marginally associated with drug-related stigma reported by community members (p=0.087), and higher education inequality was significantly associated with higher HIV-related stigma reported by both PWID and community members (p<0.05). For individuals, higher education was significantly associated with lower stigma (HIV and drug related) reported by both PWID and community members. Part-time employed PWID reported more experiences and perceptions of drug-related stigma, while conversely unemployed community members reported enacting lower drug-related stigma. Multi-level analysis revealed that the relationship between education inequality and HIV-related stigma is superseded by the effect of individual-level education. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study confirm that socioeconomic factors at both the individual level and community level affect different types of stigma in different ways. Attention should be paid to these differences when planning structural or educational interventions to reduce stigma, and additional research should investigate the mechanisms with which SES and inequality affect social relationships and, in turn, stigma.