Using the Johns Hopkins ACG Case-Mix System for population segmentation in a hospital-based adult patient population in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: Population health management involves risk characterisation and patient segmentation. Almost all population segmentation tools require comprehensive health information spanning the full care continuum. We assessed the utility of applying the ACG System as a population risk segmentation tool using only hospital data. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary hospital in central Singapore. PARTICIPANTS: 100 000 randomly selected adult patients from 1 January to 31 December 2017. INTERVENTION: Hospital encounters, diagnoses codes and medications prescribed to the participants were used as input data to the ACG System. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospital costs, admission episodes and mortality of these patients in the subsequent year (2018) were used to assess the utility of ACG System outputs such as resource utilisation bands (RUBs) in stratifying patients and identifying high hospital care users. RESULTS: Patients placed in higher RUBs had higher prospective (2018) healthcare costs, and were more likely to have healthcare costs in the top five percentile, to have three or more hospital admissions, and to die in the subsequent year. A combination of RUBs and ACG System generated rank probability of high healthcare costs, age and gender that had good discriminatory ability for all three outcomes, with area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.827, 0.889 and 0.876, respectively. Application of machine learning methods improved AUCs marginally by about 0.02 in predicting the top five percentile of healthcare costs and death in the subsequent year. CONCLUSION: A population stratification and risk prediction tool can be used to appropriately segment populations in a hospital patient population even with incomplete clinical data.

Epidemiology and economic burden of bronchiectasis requiring hospitalisation in Singapore.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the epidemiology and cost of bronchiectasis in Asia. This study describes the disease burden of bronchiectasis in Singapore. METHODS: A nationwide administrative dataset was used to identify hospitalisations with bronchiectasis as a diagnosis. Population statistics and medical encounter data were used to estimate the incidence, mortality, prevalence and direct medical costs associated with bronchiectasis requiring hospitalisation. RESULTS: There were 420 incident hospitalised bronchiectasis patients in 2017, giving an incidence rate of 10.6 per 100 000. Age-standardised incidence declined on average by 2.7% per year between 2007 and 2017. Incidence rates increased strongly with age in both men and women. Tuberculosis was a secondary diagnosis in 37.5% of incident hospitalisations in 2007, but has declined sharply since then. Patient survival was considerably lower in both men (5-year relative survival ratios (RSR) 0.63, 95% CI 0.59-0.66) and women (5-year RSR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72-0.78). The point prevalence of bronchiectasis was 147.1 per 100 000 in 2017, and increased sharply with age, with >1% of people aged ≥75 years having bronchiectasis. Total first-year costs among incident bronchiectasis patients in 2016 varied widely, with a mean±sd USD 7331±8863. Approximately 10% of the patients admitted in 2016 had total first-year costs of more than USD 14 380. CONCLUSION: Bronchiectasis is common and imposes a substantial burden on healthcare costs and survival rates of patients in Singapore.

Association of diabetes treatment with long-term glycemic patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort study.

AIM: This study aimed to analyze diabetes treatment and treatment changes in association with long-term glycemic patterns in an Asian population with diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 6218 patients with type 2 diabetes managed in public primary care clinics in Singapore. Clinical data from 2011 to 2016 were extracted from electronic medical records, including serial HbA1c measurements and dispensed antidiabetic medication records. Patterns of longitudinal HbA1c trajectories were identified using latent class growth analysis, and patients' annual treatment plans were compared between subgroups with different HbA1c patterns. RESULTS: We identified four distinct HbA1c patterns. Eighty-one percent of patients were classified in the low-stable group, where monotherapy and dual therapy with oral agents were the most common treatments. We also identified three groups with poorer control, with moderate-stable (14%), moderate-increase (3%), and high-decrease (2%) HbA1c patterns. Insulin treatment was most prevalent in these groups, with 61% to 72% of subjects receiving insulin treatment in 2016. More than 60% of subjects in poorer control groups had experienced treatment intensification during follow-up. Addition of multiple insulin injections was the most common intensification in moderate-increase and high-decrease groups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment reflected and was appropriate to the extent of dysglycemia in this population. A small group of patients had deteriorating glycemic control, in spite of being treated with multiple insulin injections, suggesting non-response or non-adherence to treatment. Further investigation is needed to identify reasons for the deteriorating control observed and design effective interventions for these patients.

Psychometric properties and population norms of the positive mental health instrument in a representative multi-ethnic Asian population.

BACKGROUND: Measures of mental well-being and positive mental health (PMH) have been largely developed and used in Western populations, however, data on representative Asian communities are lacking. Using data from a population sample, this study sought to establish psychometric properties and norms of the PMH Instrument (PMH-I), a measure of positive mental health developed in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative survey among 1925 adults aged 18-79 years of Chinese, Malay, Indian or other ethnicity. Participants reported socio-demographic characteristics and completed the PMH-I along with measures of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and psychological distress. Construct validity of the PMH-I was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis and concurrent validity was tested through correlation with other psychological measures. Normative PMH values and differences in population subgroups were estimated. RESULTS: The six-factor-higher-order structure of the PMH-I comprising six subscales of general coping, emotional support, spirituality, interpersonal skills, personal growth and autonomy and global affect was confirmed. Concurrent validity was shown through significant positive correlation of the total PMH score and its subscales with HRQoL and an inverse correlation with psychological distress. Weighted age, gender and ethnicity-specific norms were derived for the Singapore population. Total PMH was significantly higher in participants aged over 40 years as compared with 18-29 year olds and in non-Chinese ethnic groups as compared with Chinese. These differences were observed for all PMH-I subscales, with the exception of emotional support and interpersonal skills score differences by age. In contrast, gender, marital status, and education level were significantly associated with some of the subscales, but not with total PMH. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the psychometric properties of the PMH-I in a multi-ethnic Asian population sample. The generalizable population-based norms support the application of the PMH-I for measuring mental health and assessing its determinants within the Singapore general population.

Diabetes mellitus prevalence is increasing in South Asians but is stable in Chinese living in Singapore and Mauritius.

BACKGROUND: Asia is experiencing a type 2 diabetes epidemic, but prevalence differs by ethnicity and level of socioeconomic development. Singapore and Mauritius have implemented comprehensive campaigns to address this public health problem. We compared diabetes and obesity prevalence trends among Chinese and South Asians living in Singapore and Mauritius to determine the contribution of ethnicity and economic development to diabetes. METHODS: Age-specific data from serial national population-based surveys in Singapore and Mauritius between 1987 and 2010 were used to estimate age-standardized diabetes and obesity prevalence. Modified Breslow-Cox proportional hazard models were used to obtain rate ratios for diabetes risk factors. RESULTS: In Singapore, the age-standardized prevalence of diabetes remained stable for Chinese (men: 14% in 1992, 13% in 2010; women: 12% in 1992, 10% in 2010), but increases were observed for South Asians (men: 20% in 1992, 26% in 2010; women: 18% in 1992, 20% in 2010). There were similar patterns in Mauritius. In both countries, obesity prevalence trends were stable for Chinese women, but increased for Chinese men and South Asians. Associations between obesity and diabetes were stronger in Chinese than South Asians regardless of country. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different socioeconomic settings in Singapore and Mauritius, we observed rising diabetes prevalence among South Asians but stable prevalence in Chinese in both countries. This provides further evidence that ethnicity contributes to the development of diabetes, and that there should be an increased emphasis on future prevention strategies targeting South Asian populations in these countries.

Ethnic and gender specific life expectancies of the Singapore population, 1965 to 2009 - converging, or diverging?

BACKGROUND: The increase in life expectancy and the persistence of expectancy gaps between different social groups in the 20th century are well-described in Western developed countries, but less well documented in the newly industrialised countries of Asia. Singapore, a multiethnic island-state, has undergone a demographic and epidemiologic transition concomitant with economic development. We evaluate secular trends and differences in life expectancy by ethnicity and gender in Singapore, from independence to the present. METHODS: Period abridged life tables were constructed to derive the life expectancy of the Singapore population from 1965 to 2009 using data from the Department of Statistics and the Registry of Births and Deaths, Singapore. RESULTS: All 3 of Singapore's main ethnic groups, and both genders, experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth and at 65 years from 1965 to 2009, though at substantially different rates. Although there has been a convergence in life expectancy between Indians and Chinese, the (substantial) gap between Malays and the other two ethnic groups has remained. Females continued to have a higher life expectancy at birth and at 65 years than males throughout this period, with no evidence of convergence. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic and gender differences in life expectancy persist in Singapore despite its rapid economic development. Targeted chronic disease prevention measures and health promotion activities focusing on people of Malay ethnicity and the male community may be needed to remedy this inequality.

Utility values associated with vitreous floaters.

PURPOSE: To ascertain the health-related quality of life associated with symptomatic degenerative vitreous floaters. DESIGN: Cross-sectional questionnaire survey. METHODS: In this institution-based study, 311 outpatients aged 21 years and older who presented with symptoms of floaters were enrolled. Data from 266 patients (85.5%) who completed the questionnaire were analyzed. Utility values were assessed using a standardized utility value questionnaire. The time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) for death and blindness techniques were used to calculate the utility values. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariate analyses were performed using Stata Release 6.0. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 52.9 ± 12.02 years (range, 21-97). The mean utility values were 0.89, 0.89, and 0.93 for TTO, SG (death), and SG (blindness), respectively. Patients aged ≤55 years reported significantly lower SG (blindness) utility values when compared with patients above 55 years of age (age ≤55 = 0.92, age >55 = 0.94, P = .007). Utility measurements did not demonstrate significant relationship with any of the other socio-demographic variables examined in this study. The utility values did not demonstrate any significant relationship with other ocular characteristics such as duration of symptoms, presence of a posterior vitreous detachment, and presence or severity of myopia. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic degenerative vitreous floaters have a negative impact on health-related quality of life. Younger symptomatic patients are more likely to take a risk of blindness to get rid of the floaters than older patients.

Gender, ethnicity, health behaviour & self-rated health in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Self-rated health and the factors that influence it have never been described in Singapore before. This paper presents a descriptive study of self-rated health in a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 6236 persons. METHODS: As part of the National Health Surveillance Survey 2001, 6236 subjects aged 18 years and above were interviewed in the homes of participants by trained interviewers. The subjects were asked "In general, how would you rate your health today?", and given 5 possible responses. These were then categorized as "Good" (very good and good) and "Poor" (moderate, bad and very bad) self-rated health. The association of socio-economic and health behaviour risk factors with good self-rated health was studied using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Univariate analyses suggest that gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, household income, age, self-reported doctor-diagnosed illnesses, alcohol intake, exercise and BMI are all associated with poor self-rated health. In multivariate regression analyses, gender, ethnicity, household income, age, self-reported illness and current smoking and BMI were associated with poor self-rated health. There are gender differences in the association of various factors such as household income, smoking and BMI to self-rated health. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic factors and health behaviours are significantly associated with self-rated health, and gender differences are striking. We discuss why these factors may impact self-rated health and why gender differences may have been observed, propose directions for further research and comment on the public policy implications of our findings.

Trends in alcohol consumption in Singapore 1992 2004.

AIMS: To present trends in alcohol consumption between 1992 and 2004 in Singapore. METHODS: Alcohol consumption data were derived from national health surveys conducted in 1992, 1998 and 2004. Age-adjusted prevalence of frequent (drinking 1-4 days a week), regular (drinking more than 4 days a week) and binge (having five or more drinks during a drinking session at least once in the month) drinking by gender and age group for the three surveys were compared. Multivariate analyses for binge drinking in 2004 were performed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Prevalence of frequent, regular and binge drinking increased between 1992 and 2004. Prevalence increase in binge drinking was highest (from 5.1 to 10.0%), followed by frequent drinking (from 4.5 to 7.5%) and regular drinking (from 2.9 to 3.1%). Uptake in binge drinking increased in both genders and across all age groups but was most evident among adults aged 18-29. Frequent drinking increase was observed for both genders but was most pronounced among women aged 18-29. The level of regular drinking declined in men but increased in women, especially those aged 18-29 and 30-49. Being younger, male, separated, divorced or widowed, a current smoker, or having a monthly household income of S$6000 and above were attributes positively associated with binge drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption, especially binge drinking, has increased among Singaporeans between 1992 and 2004. There is gender convergence in alcohol consumption.