Probabilistic human health risk assessment of PCDD/Fs near municipal solid-waste incinerator using Monte Carlo analysis coupled with triangular fuzzy numbers.

PCDD/Fs are dioxins produced by waste incineration and pose risks to human health. We aimed to detail the health risks of airborne and soil PCDD/Fs near a municipal solid-waste incinerator (MSWI) for the surrounding population and develop a new model that improves upon existing methods. Thus, we conducted field sampling and then investigated a MSWI in the Pearl River Delta (2016-2018). Our results showed that the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk values of PCDD/Fs exposed to residents in nearby areas were acceptable, with hazard index (HI) values lower than 1.0 and a total carcinogenic risk lower than 1.0E-6. Notably, the results raised concerns regarding higher non-carcinogenic risks in children than in adults. Comparative analysis of the frequency accumulation diagram, accumulated probability risk, and the absolute value of error (δ) between the 95% confidence interval (CI) and the 90% CI of the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy number (MCSS-TFN) and the MCSS model, respectively, demonstrated that the MCSS-TFN exhibited less uncertainty than the MCSS model, regardless of the health risk value of PCDD/Fs in ambient air or in soil. This observation underscores the superiority of the MCSS-TFN model over other models in assessing the health risks associated with PCDD/Fs in situations with limited data. Our new method overcomes the limited dataset size and high uncertainty in assessing the health risks of dioxin substances, providing a more comprehensive understanding of their associated health risks than MCSS models.

Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soil using an integrated model combining soil-related and plants-accumulation exposures: A case study on Hainan Island, South China.

Traditional health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s (TMs) in agricultural soil exclusively considers direct soil-related exposure and may underestimate the health risks they pose. In this study, the health risks of TMs were evaluated using an integrated model that combined soil-related and plant-accumulating exposures. A detailed investigation of common TMs (Cr, Pb, Cd, As, and Hg) coupled with probability risk analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted on Hainan Island. Our results showed that, except for As, the non-carcinogenic risk (HI) and carcinogenic risk (CR) of the TMs were all within the acceptable ranges (HI < 1.0, and CR < 1E-06) for direct soil-related exposure to bio-accessible fractions and indirect exposure via plant accumulation (CR substantially lower than the warning threshold 1E-04). We identified crop food ingestion as the essential pathway for TM exposure and As as the critical toxic element in terms of risk control. Moreover, we determined that RfDo and SFo are the most suitable parameters for assessing As health risk severity. Our study demonstrated that the proposed integrated model combining soil-related and plant-accumulating exposures can avoid major health risk assessment deviations. The results obtained and the integrated model proposed in this study can facilitate future multi-pathway exposure research and could be the basis for determining agricultural soil quality criteria in tropical areas.