Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages.

BACKGROUND: Physicians play a critical role in healthcare delivery. With an aging US population, population growth, and a greater insured population following the Affordable Care Act (ACA), healthcare demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. This study is to examine current and future physician job surplus/shortage trends across the United States of America from 2017 to 2030. METHODS: Using projected changes in population size and age, the authors developed demand and supply models to forecast the physician shortage (difference between demand and supply) in each of the 50 states. Letter grades were then assigned based on projected physician shortage ratios (physician shortage per 100 000 people) to evaluate physician shortages and describe the changing physician workforce in each state. RESULTS: On the basis of current trends, the number of states receiving a grade of "D" or "F" for their physician shortage ratio will increase from 4 in 2017 to 23 by 2030, with a total national deficit of 139 160 physician jobs. By 2030, the West is forecasted to have the greatest physician shortage ratio (69 physician jobs per 100 000 people), while the Northeast will have a surplus of 50 jobs per 100 000 people. CONCLUSION: There will be physician workforce shortages throughout the country in 2030. Outcomes of this study provide a foundation to discuss effective and efficient ways to curb the worsening shortage over the coming decades and meet current and future population demands. Increased efforts to understand shortage dynamics are warranted.

United States Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card and Shortage Forecast: A Revisit.

This is a reevaluation of registered nurse (RN) supply and demand from 2016 to 2030 using a previously published work forecast model and grading methodology with more recent workforce data. There will be a shortage of 154 018 RNs by 2020 and 510 394 RNs by 2030; the South and West regions will have higher shortage ratios than Northeast and Midwest regions. This reflects a nearly 50% overall improvement when compared with the authors' prior study, and the low-performing states have improved from 18 "D" and 12 "F" grades as published earlier to 13 "D" and 1 "F" in this study. Although progress has been made, efforts to foster the pipelines for improving the nursing workforce need to be continued.

U.S. Social Worker Workforce Report Card: Forecasting Nationwide Shortages.

Using age-based projected changes in population, the authors developed demand and supply models of the social worker workforce to project the shortage of social workers in all 50 states and assigned letter grades based on shortage ratios. According to the projections, the number of states with shortage ratios more severe than the current national ratio will increase from 11 states in 2012 to 30 states by 2030 and the nation will experience a total shortfall of over 195,000 social workers, with the most severe shortages occurring in the western and southern regions of the United States. Further efforts are recommended to investigate shortage dynamics and develop strategies to counter its causes.

United States registered nurse workforce report card and shortage forecast.

Registered nurses (RNs) play a critical role in health care delivery. With an aging US population, health care demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. Using projected changes in population size and age, the authors developed demand and supply models to forecast the RN job shortage in each of the 50 states. Letter grades were assigned based on projected RN job shortage ratios. The number of states receiving a grade of "D" or "F" for their RN shortage ratio will increase from 5 in 2009 to 30 by 2030, for a total national deficit of 918 232 (725,619 - 1,112,112) RN jobs. There will be significant RN workforce shortages throughout the country in 2030; the western region will have the largest shortage ratio of 389 RN jobs per 100,000. Increased efforts to understand shortage dynamics are warranted.

California regional registered nurse workforce forecast.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the shortage of registered nurses (RNs) of the 24 Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas (PMSA) and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in California. BACKGROUND: A nursing shortage prevails nationally and is most serious in the state of California. Successful interventions in the alleviation of the RN shortage will require effective resource allocation and academic program development in various regions throughout the state. While various published studies have focused on nursing workforce development at the state and even regional levels, there are no studies focused on identifying RN shortages at the PMSA or MSA (P/MSA) level. In this report, a forecasting model is developed to systematically analyze the future supply and demand of the RN workforce within each California P/MSA. METHODS: Using accessible public databases, forecasting models were constructed to project the demand and supply of RN jobs in California P/MSAs. In the demand model, population age and size were used as determinants of regionally required RN jobs. In the RN jobs (supply) model, a region's supply of RNs was the net sum of factors increasing and decreasing the regional presence of RN jobs, including RN graduations, migration, and aging of the RN workforce. The combination of these supply and demand models was used to produce regional RN shortage forecasts for future years. RESULTS: Almost all regions exhibited growing shortages by 2020 at rates ranging from 3% to 600%. Using a modified version of the grading rubric of the California Regional Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card (Lin, Lee, Juraschek, & Jones, 2006), only two regions will receive a grade above "C" in 2020. The number of "F" grades will grow to nine. CONCLUSIONS: California has the lowest RN ratio in the United States (Fletcher, Guzley, Barnhill, & Philhour, 2004; Health Resources and Services Administration, 2004a) and this RN workforce forecasting model shows that over the next 15 years, the majority of P/MSAs in California will have increasing RN shortages. This analysis has significant policy implications including the need to create specific plans to mitigate the effect of the California shortage.

California regonal regstered nurse workforce report card.

Various reports and opinion papers have offered suggestions to alleviate the national and California RN shortages. The methodology of using the report card concept for comparing the number of RN jobs per 100,000 populations regionally with the national database further highlights the severe shortage of RN's in various regions in California. This report card method may potentially be used as a planning or forecasting tool, as well as a monitoring tool to initiate workforce development strategies and projects, and to evaluate their effectiveness over time.