External validation and clinical utility assessment of PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model in young, systemic treatment-naïve women with node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The validity of the PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model is unclear for young patients without adjuvant systemic treatment. This study aimed to validate PREDICT and assess its clinical utility in young women with node-negative breast cancer who did not receive systemic treatment. METHODS: We selected all women from the Netherlands Cancer Registry who were diagnosed with node-negative breast cancer under age 40 between 1989 and 2000, a period when adjuvant systemic treatment was not standard practice for women with node-negative disease. We evaluated the calibration and discrimination of PREDICT using the observed/expected (O/E) mortality ratio, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. Additionally, we compared the potential clinical utility of PREDICT for selectively administering chemotherapy to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy using decision curve analysis at predefined thresholds. RESULTS: A total of 2264 women with a median age at diagnosis of 36 years were included. Of them, 71.2% had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors and 44.0% had grade 3 tumors. Median tumor size was 16 mm. PREDICT v2.2 underestimated 10-year all-cause mortality by 33% in all women (O/E ratio:1.33, 95%CI:1.22-1.43). Model discrimination was moderate overall (AUC10-year:0.65, 95%CI:0.62-0.68), and poor for women with ER-negative tumors (AUC10-year:0.56, 95%CI:0.51-0.62). Compared to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy, PREDICT only showed a slightly higher net benefit in women with ER-positive tumors, but not in women with ER-negative tumors. CONCLUSIONS: PREDICT yields unreliable predictions for young women with node-negative breast cancer. Further model updates are needed before PREDICT can be routinely used in this patient subset.

High-dose chemotherapy with stem cell rescue to treat stage III homologous deficient breast cancer: factors influencing clinical implementation.

BACKGROUND: High-dose chemotherapy with autologous stem cell rescue (HDCT) is a promising treatment for patients with stage III, HER2-negative, homologous recombination deficient (HRD) breast cancer. Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are currently under investigation in an international multicenter randomized controlled trial. To increase the chance of successful introduction of HDCT into daily clinical practice, we aimed to identify relevant factors for smooth implementation using an early comprehensive assessment framework. METHODS: This is a qualitative, multi-stakeholder, exploratory research using semi-structured interviews guided by the Constructive Technology Assessment model, which evaluates the quality of a novel health technology by clinical, economic, patient-related, and organizational factors. Stakeholders were recruited by purposeful stratified sampling and interviewed until sufficient content saturation was reached. Two researchers independently created themes, categories, and subcategories by following inductive coding steps, these were verified by a third researcher. RESULTS: We interviewed 28 stakeholders between June 2019 and April 2021. In total, five overarching themes and seventeen categories were identified. Important findings for optimal implementation included the structural identification and referral of all eligible patients, early integration of supportive care, multidisciplinary collaboration between- and within hospitals, (de)centralization of treatment aspects, the provision of information for patients and healthcare professionals, and compliance to new regulation for the BRCA1-like test. CONCLUSIONS: In anticipation of a positive reimbursement decision, we recommend to take the highlighted implementation factors into consideration. This might expedite and guide high-quality equitable access to HDCT for patients with stage III, HER2-negative, HRD breast cancer in the Netherlands.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the 70-gene signature compared with clinical assessment in breast cancer based on a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint®) to guide chemotherapy use in T1-3N0-1M0 breast cancer was demonstrated in the Microarray in Node-Negative and 1 to 3 Positive Lymph Node Disease May Avoid Chemotherapy (MINDACT) study. One thousand four ninety seven of 3356 (46.2%) enrolled patients with high clinical risk (in accordance with the modified Adjuvant! Online clinical-pathological assessment) had a low-risk 70-gene signature. Using patient-level data from the MINDACT trial, the cost-effectiveness of using the 70-gene signature to guide adjuvant chemotherapy selection for clinical high risk, estrogen receptor positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor 2 negative (HER2-) patients was analysed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A hybrid decision tree-Markov model simulated treatment strategies in accordance with the 70-gene signature with clinical assessment versus clinical assessment alone, over a 10-year time horizon. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), country-specific costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for six countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK and the US. RESULTS: Treatment strategies guided by the 70-gene signature result in more QALYs compared with clinical assessment alone. Costs of the 70-gene signature strategy were lower in five of six countries. This led to dominance of the 70-gene signature in Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands and the US and to a cost-effective situation in the UK (ICER £22,910/QALY). Annual national cost savings were €4.2M (Belgium), €24.7M (France), €45.1M (Germany), €12.7M (Netherlands) and $244M (US). UK budget increase was £8.4M. CONCLUSION: Using the 70-gene signature to safely guide chemotherapy de-escalation in clinical high risk patients with ER+/HER2- tumours is cost-effective compared with using clinical assessment alone. Long-term follow-up and outcomes from the MINDACT trial are necessary to address uncertainties in model inputs.

Assessment and management of bone health in women with early breast cancer receiving endocrine treatment in the DATA study.

The phase III DATA study investigates the efficacy of adjuvant anastrozole (6 vs. 3 year) in postmenopausal women with breast cancer previously treated with 2-3 years of tamoxifen. This planned side-study assessed patterns of care regarding detection and treatment of osteopenia/osteoporosis, and trends in bone mineral density (BMD) during and after therapy. We registered all BMD measurements and bisphosphonate-use. Time to osteopenia/osteoporosis was analysed by Kaplan Meier methodology. For the trend in T-scores we used linear mixed models with random patients effects. Of 1860 eligible DATA patients, 910 (48.9%) had a baseline BMD measurement. Among patients with a normal baseline BMD (n = 417), osteopenia was observed in 53.5% and 55.4% in the 6- and 3-year group respectively (p = 0.18), during follow-up. Only two patients (3-year group) developed osteoporosis. Of the patients with osteopenia at baseline (n = 408), 24.4% and 20.4% developed osteoporosis respectively (p = 0.89). Three years after randomisation 18.3% and 18.2% used bisphosphonates in the 6- and 3-year groups respectively and 6 years after randomisation this was 23.7% and 20.9% respectively (p = 0.90) of which the majority used oral bisphosphonates. The yearly mean BMD-change during anastrozole in the lumbar spine showed a T-score decline of 0.075. After bisphosphonate addition the decline became less prominent (0.047 (p < 0.001)) and after anastrozole cessation, while continuing bisphosphonates, the mean BMD yearly increased (0.047 (p < 0.001)). In conclusion, extended anastrozole therapy was not associated with a higher incidence of osteoporosis. Anastrozole-use was associated with a BMD decrease; however, the decline was modest and partially reversible after anastrozole cessation.

Next Generation-Targeted Amplicon Sequencing (NG-TAS): an optimised protocol and computational pipeline for cost-effective profiling of circulating tumour DNA.

Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) detection and monitoring have enormous potential clinical utility in oncology. We describe here a fast, flexible and cost-effective method to profile multiple genes simultaneously in low input cell-free DNA (cfDNA): Next Generation-Targeted Amplicon Sequencing (NG-TAS). We designed a panel of 377 amplicons spanning 20 cancer genes and tested the NG-TAS pipeline using cell-free DNA from two HapMap lymphoblastoid cell lines. NG-TAS consistently detected mutations in cfDNA when mutation allele fraction was > 1%. We applied NG-TAS to a clinical cohort of metastatic breast cancer patients, demonstrating its potential in monitoring the disease. The computational pipeline is available at https://github.com/cclab-brca/NGTAS_pipeline .

(Very) Early technology assessment and translation of predictive biomarkers in breast cancer.

Predictive biomarkers can guide treatment decisions in breast cancer. Many studies are undertaken to discover and translate these biomarkers, yet few biomarkers make it to practice. Before use in clinical decision making, predictive biomarkers need to demonstrate analytical validity, clinical validity and clinical utility. While attaining analytical and clinical validity is relatively straightforward, by following methodological recommendations, the achievement of clinical utility is extremely challenging. It requires demonstrating three associations: the biomarker with the outcome (prognostic association), the effect of treatment independent of the biomarker, and the differential treatment effect between the prognostic and the predictive biomarker (predictive association). In addition, economical, ethical, regulatory, organizational and patient/doctor-related aspects are hampering the translational process. Traditionally, these aspects do not receive much attention until formal approval or reimbursement of a biomarker test (informed by Health Technology Assessment (HTA)) is at stake, at which point the clinical utility and sometimes price of the test can hardly be influenced anymore. When HTA analyses are performed earlier, during biomarker research and development, they may prevent further development of those biomarkers unlikely to ever provide sufficient added value to society, and rather facilitate translation of the promising ones. Early HTA is particularly relevant for the predictive biomarker field, as expensive medicines are under pressure and the need for biomarkers to guide their appropriate use is huge. Closer interaction between clinical researchers and HTA experts throughout the translational research process will ensure that available data and methodologies will be used most efficiently to facilitate biomarker translation.

The Melanoma MAICare Framework: A Microsimulation Model for the Assessment of Individualized Cancer Care.

Recently, new but expensive treatments have become available for metastatic melanoma. These improve survival, but in view of the limited funds available, cost-effectiveness needs to be evaluated. Most cancer cost-effectiveness models are based on the observed clinical events such as recurrence- free and overall survival. Times at which events are recorded depend not only on the effectiveness of treatment but also on the timing of examinations and the types of tests performed. Our objective was to construct a microsimulation model framework that describes the melanoma disease process using a description of underlying tumor growth as well as its interaction with diagnostics, treatments, and surveillance. The framework should allow for exploration of the impact of simultaneously altering curative treatment approaches in different phases of the disease as well as altering diagnostics. The developed framework consists of two components, namely, the disease model and the clinical management module. The disease model consists of a tumor level, describing growth and metastasis of the tumor, and a patient level, describing clinically observed states, such as recurrence and death. The clinical management module consists of the care patients receive. This module interacts with the disease process, influencing the rate of transition between tumor growth states at the tumor level and the rate of detecting a recurrence at the patient level. We describe the framework as the required input and the model output. Furthermore, we illustrate model calibration using registry data and data from the literature.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.

BACKGROUND: Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. METHODS: To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). RESULTS: In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.

Cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature versus St. Gallen guidelines and Adjuvant Online for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) is a prognostic test used to guide adjuvant treatment decisions in patients with node-negative breast cancer. In order to decide upon its use, a systematic comparative analysis of the effects of the 70-gene signature, the Sankt Gallen guidelines and the Adjuvant Online Software for these patients on survival, quality of life and costs is warranted. METHODS: A Markov decision model was used to simulate the 20-year costs and outcomes (survival and quality-of-life adjusted survival (QALYs)) in a hypothetical cohort of node-negative, estrogen receptor positive breast cancer patients. Sensitivity and specificity of the three prognostic tools were based on 5 and 10 years breast cancer specific survival and distant metastasis as first event, derived from a pooled analysis consisting of 305 tumour samples from 3 previously reported validation studies concerning the 70-gene signature. RESULTS: Small differences in survival, but substantial differences in quality-adjusted survival between the prognostic tools were observed. Quality-adjusted survival was highest when using the 70-gene signature. Based on costs per QALY, the 70-gene has the highest probability of being cost-effective for a willingness to pay for a QALY higher than euro12.000. Sankt Gallen showed the highest survival rates compared to the 70-gene signature, but leads to a substantial larger amount of adjuvant chemotherapy and lower cost-effectiveness, thus demanding a high willingness to pay to save a life year. CONCLUSIONS: When deciding upon the cost-effectiveness of the prognostic tests, the 70-gene signature improves quality-adjusted survival and has the highest probability of being cost-effective.

Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) as a tool in coverage with evidence development: the case of the 70-gene prognosis signature for breast cancer diagnostics.

OBJECTIVES: Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) is a means to guide early implementation of new developments in society, and can be used as an evaluation tool for Coverage with Evidence Development (CED). We used CTA for the introduction of a new diagnostic test in the Netherlands, the 70-gene prognosis signature (MammaPrint) for node-negative breast cancer patients. METHODS: Studied aspects were (organizational) efficiency, patient-centeredness and diffusion scenarios. Pre-post structured surveys were conducted in fifteen community hospitals concerning changes in logistics and teamwork as a consequence of the introduction of the 70-gene signature. Patient-centeredness was measured by questionnaires and interviews regarding knowledge and psychological impact of the test. Diffusion scenarios, which are commonly applied in industry to anticipate on future development and diffusion of their products, have been applied in this study. RESULTS: Median implementation-time of the 70-gene signature was 1.2 months. Most changes were seen in pathology processes and adjuvant treatment decisions. Physicians valued the addition of the 70-gene signature information as beneficial for patient management. Patient-centeredness (n = 77, response 78 percent): patients receiving a concordant high-risk and discordant clinical low/high risk-signature showed significantly more negative emotions with respect to receiving both test-results compared with concordant low-risk and discordant clinical high/low risk-signature patients. The first scenario was written in 2004 before the introduction of the 70-gene signature and identified hypothetical developments that could influence diffusion; especially the "what-if" deviation describing a discussion on validity among physicians proved to be realistic. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in speed of implementation and influenced treatment decisions were seen. Impact on patients seems especially related to discordance and its successive communication. In the future, scenario drafting will lead to input for model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. Finally, CTA can be useful as a tool to guide CED by adding monitoring and anticipation on possible developments during early implementation, to the assessment of promising new technologies.