Cost-effectiveness of induction of labor at 39 weeks vs expectant management by cervical examination.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses have demonstrated the cost effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation for healthy nulliparous people. However, elective induction of labor is resource intensive, and optimal resource allocation requires a thorough understanding of which subgroups of patients will benefit most. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation is more cost-effective in patients with favorable or unfavorable cervical examinations. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed 2 decision analysis models using TreeAge software: one modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group of nulliparous patients with unfavorable cervical examinations and the other modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group with favorable cervical examinations. Estimates of cost, probability, and health state utility were derived from the literature. Based on previous literature, we assumed that people with favorable cervical examinations would have a lower baseline rate of cesarean delivery and higher rates of spontaneous labor. RESULTS: In our base case analysis, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation was cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was 50-fold lower for people with unfavorable cervical examinations ($2150 vs $115,100). Induction of labor resulted in 3885 fewer cesarean deliveries and 58 fewer stillbirths per 100,000 patients for those with unfavorable examinations, whereas induction of labor resulted in 2293 fewer cesarean deliveries and 48 fewer stillbirths with labor induction for those with favorable cervical examinations. The results were sensitive to multiple inputs, including the likelihood of cesarean delivery, the cost of induction, the cost of vaginal or cesarean delivery, and the probability of spontaneous labor. In Monte Carlo analysis, the base case findings held true for 64.1% of modeled scenarios for patients with unfavorable cervixes and 55.4% of modeled scenarios for patients with favorable cervixes. CONCLUSION: With a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation may be cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. This result was driven by the likelihood of labor in patients with favorable cervical examinations, and the resultant avoidance of prolonged pregnancy and its complications, including hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and stillbirths. Health systems may wish to prioritize patients with unfavorable cervical examinations for elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, which may be opposite to common practice.

Mode of Delivery and Unplanned Cesarean: Differences in Rates and Indication by Race, Ethnicity, and Sociodemographic Characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the relationship of sociodemographic variables with racial/ethnic disparities in unplanned cesarean births in a large academic hospital system. Secondarily, we investigated the relationship of these variables with differences in cesarean delivery indication, cesarean delivery timing, length of second stage and operative delivery. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of births >34 weeks between 2017 and 2019. Our primary outcome was unplanned cesarean delivery after a trial of labor. Multiple gestations, vaginal birth after cesarean, elective repeat or primary cesarean delivery, and contraindications for vaginal delivery were excluded. Associations between mode of delivery and patient characteristics were assessed using Chi-square, Fisher exact tests, or t-tests. Odds ratios were estimated by multivariate logistic regression. Goodness of fit was assessed with Hosmer Lemeshow test. RESULTS: Among 18,946 deliveries, the rate of cesarean delivery was 14.8% overall and 21.3% in nulliparous patients. After adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), and parity, women of Black and Asian races had significantly increased odds of unplanned cesarean delivery; 1.69 (95% CI: 1.45,1.96) and 1.23 (1.08, 1.40), respectively. Single Hispanic women had adjusted odds of 1.65 (1.08, 2.54). Single women had increased adjusted odds of cesarean delivery of 1.18, (1.05, 1.31). Fetal intolerance was the indication for 39% (613) of cesarean deliveries among White women as compared to 63% (231) of Black women and 49% (71) of Hispanic women (p <0.001). CONCLUSION: Rates of unplanned cesarean delivery were significantly higher in Black and Asian compared to White women, even after adjustment for age, BMI, parity, and zip code income strata, and rates of unplanned cesarean delivery were higher for Hispanic women self-identifying as single. Racial and ethnic differences were seen in cesarean delivery indications and operative vaginal deliveries. Future work is urgently needed to better understand differences in provider care or patient attributes, and potential provider bias, that may contribute to these findings. KEY POINTS: · Racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic differences exist in the odds of unplanned cesarean.. · Indications for unplanned cesarean delivery differed significantly among racial and ethnic groups.. · There may be unmeasured provider level factors which contribute to disparities in cesarean rates..

Does Universal Coverage Mitigate Racial Disparities in Potentially Avoidable Maternal Complications?

OBJECTIVE: Potentially avoidable maternity complications (PAMCs) have been validated as an indicator of access to quality prenatal care. African-American mothers have exhibited a higher incidence of PAMCs, which has been attributed to unequal health coverage. The objective of this study was to assess if racial disparities in the incidence of PAMCs exist in a universally insured population. STUDY DESIGN: PAMCs in each racial group were compared relative to White mothers using multivariate logistic regression. Stratified subanalyses assessed for adjusted differences in the odds of PAMCs for each racial group within direct versus purchased care. RESULTS: A total of 675,553 deliveries were included. Among them, 428,320 (63%) mothers were White, 112,170 (17%) African-American, 37,151 (6%) Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 97,912 (15%) others. African-American women (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08) were more likely to have PAMCs compared with White women, and Asian women (aOR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89-0.95) were significantly less likely to have PAMCs compared with White women. On stratified analysis according to the system of care, equal odds of PAMCs among African-American women compared with White women were realized within direct care (aOR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07), whereas slightly higher odds among African-American persisted in purchased (aOR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10). CONCLUSION: Higher occurrence of PAMCs among minority women sponsored by a universal health coverage was mitigated compared with White women. Protocol-based care as in the direct care system may help overcome health disparities.

Potential Effects of Regionalized Maternity Care on U.S. Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the current patterns of care for women at high risk for delivery-related morbidity to inform discussions about the feasibility of this regionalized approach. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study and linked 2014 American Hospital Association survey and State Inpatient Database data from seven representative states. We used American Hospital Association-reported hospital characteristics and State Inpatient Database procedure codes to assign a level of maternal care to each hospital. We then assigned each patient to a minimum required level of maternal care (I-IV) based on maternal comorbidities captured in the State Inpatient Database. Our outcome was delivery at a hospital with an inappropriately low level of maternal care. Comorbidities associated with delivery at an inappropriate hospital were assessed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The analysis included 845,545 deliveries occurring at 556 hospitals. The majority of women had risk factors appropriate for delivery at level I or II hospitals (85.1% and 12.6%, respectively). A small fraction (2.4%) of women at high risk for maternal morbidity warranted delivery in level III or IV hospitals. The majority (97.6%) of women delivered at a hospital with an appropriate level of maternal care, with only 2.4% of women delivering at a hospital with an inappropriate level of maternal care. However, 43.4% of the 19,988 high-risk patients warranting delivery at level III or IV hospitals delivered at level I or II hospitals. Women with comorbidities likely to benefit from specialized care (eg, maternal cardiac disease, placenta previa with prior uterine surgery) had high rates of delivery at hospitals with an inappropriate level of maternal care (68.2% and 37.7%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Though only 2.41% of deliveries occurred at hospitals with an inappropriate level of maternal care, a substantial fraction of women at risk for maternal morbidity delivered at hospitals potentially unequipped with resources to manage their needs. Promoting triage of high-risk patients to hospitals optimized to provide risk-appropriate care may improve maternal outcomes with minimal effect on most deliveries.

The relative effects of patient and hospital factors on postpartum readmissions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative effects of patient and hospital factors on a hospital's postpartum readmission rate. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using State Inpatient Databases from California, Florida, and New York between 2004 and 2013. We compared patient and hospital characteristics among hospitals with low and high readmission rates using χ2 tests. Risk-adjusted 30-day readmission rates were calculated for patient, delivery, and hospital characteristics to understand factors affecting readmission using fixed and random effects models. RESULTS: Patients in hospitals with low readmission rates were more likely to be white, to have private insurance and higher incomes, and to have fewer comorbidities. The patient comorbidities with the highest risk-adjusted readmission rates included hypertension (range, 2.14-3.04%), obesity (1.78-2.94%), preterm labor/delivery (2.50-2.60%), and seizure disorder (1.78-3.35%). Delivery complications were associated with increased risk-adjusted readmission rates. Compared to patient characteristics, hospital characteristics did not have a profound impact on readmission risk. CONCLUSION: Obstetric readmissions were more attributable to patient and demographic characteristics than to hospital characteristics. Readmission metric-based incentives may ultimately penalize hospitals providing high-quality care due to patient characteristics specific to their catchment area.

Perspectives on global health amongst obstetrician gynecologists: A national survey.

Objective To characterize contemporary attitudes toward global health amongst board-certified obstetricians-gynecologists (Ob-Gyns) in the US. Methods A questionnaire was mailed to members of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Respondents were stratified by interest and experience in global health and group differences were reported. Results A total of 202 of 400 (50.5%) surveys were completed; and 67.3% ( n = 136) of respondents expressed an interest in global health while 25.2% ( n = 51) had experience providing healthcare abroad. Personal safety was the primary concern of respondents (88 of 185, 47.6%), with 44.5% (57 of 128) identifying 2 weeks as an optimal period of time to spend abroad. The majority (113 of 186, 60.8%) cited hosting of local physicians in the US as the most valuable service to developing a nation's healthcare provision. Conclusion Despite high interest in global health, willingness to spend significant time abroad was limited. Concerns surrounding personal safety dovetailed with the belief that training local physicians in the US provides the most valuable service to international efforts. These attitudes and concerns suggest novel solutions will be required to increase involvement of Ob-Gyns in global women's health.

Intrapartum obstetric care in the United States military: Comparison of military and civilian care systems within TRICARE.

BACKGROUND: Expectant mothers who are beneficiaries of TRICARE (universal insurance to United States Armed Services members and their dependents) can choose to receive care within direct (salary-based) or purchased (fee-for-service) care systems. We sought to compare frequency of intrapartum obstetric procedures and outcomes such as severe acute maternal morbidity (SAMM) and common postpartum complications between direct and purchased care systems within TRICARE. METHODS: TRICARE (2006-2010) claims data were used to identify deliveries. Patient demographics, frequency of types of delivery (noninstrumental vaginal, cesarean, and instrumental vaginal), comorbid conditions, SAMM, and common postpartum complications were compared between the two systems of care. Multivariable models adjusted for patient clinical/demographic factors determined the odds of common complications and SAMM complications in purchased care compared with direct care. RESULTS: A total of 440 138 deliveries were identified. Compared with direct care, purchased care had higher frequency (30.9% vs 25.8%, P<.001) and higher adjusted odds (aOR 1.37 [CI 1.34-1.38]) of cesarean delivery. In stratified analysis by mode of delivery, purchased care had lower odds of common complications for all modes of delivery (aOR[CI]:noninstrumental vaginal: 0.72 [0.71-0.74], cesarean: 0.71 [0.68-0.75], instrumental vaginal: 0.64 [0.60-0.68]) than direct care. However, purchased care had higher odds of SAMM complications for cesarean delivery (aOR 1.31 [CI 1.19-1.44]) compared with direct care. CONCLUSION: Direct care has a higher vaginal delivery rate but also a higher rate of common complications compared with purchased care. Study of direct and purchased care systems in TRICARE may have potential use as a surrogate for comparing obstetric care between salary-based systems and fee-for-service systems in the United States.

Does Universal Insurance Mitigate Racial Differences in Minimally Invasive Hysterectomy?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine if racial differences exist in receipt of minimally invasive hysterectomy (defined as total vaginal hysterectomy [TVH] and total laparoscopic hysterectomy [TLH]) compared with an open approach (total abdominal hysterectomy [TAH]) within a universally insured patient population. DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). SETTING: The 2006-2010 national TRICARE (universal insurance coverage to US Armed Services members and their dependents) longitudinal claims data. PATIENTS: Women aged 18 years and above who underwent hysterectomy stratified into 4 racial groups: white, African American, Asian, and "other." INTERVENTION: Receipt of hysterectomy (TAH, TVH, or TLH). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We used risk-adjusted multinomial logistic regression models to determine the relative risk ratios of receipt of TVH and TLH compared with TAH in each racial group compared with referent category of white patients for benign conditions. Among 33 015 patients identified, 60.82% (n = 20 079) were white, 26.11% (n = 8621) African American, 4.63% (n = 1529) Asian, and 8.44% (n = 2786) other. Most hysterectomies (83.9%) were for benign indications. Nearly 42% of hysterectomies (n = 13 917) were TAH, 27% (n = 8937) were TVH, and 30% (n = 10 161) were TLH. Overall, 36.37% of white patients received TAH compared with 53.40% of African American patients and 51.01% of Asian patients (p < .001). On multinomial logistic regression analyses, African American patients were significantly less likely than white patients to receive TVH (relative risk ratio [RRR], .63; 95% confidence interval [CI], .58-.69) or TLH (RRR, .65; 95% CI, .60-.71) compared with TAH. Similarly, Asian patients were less likely than white patients to receive TVH (RRR, .71; 95% CI, .60-.84) or TLH (RRR, .69; 95% CI, .58-.83) compared with TAH. Analyses by benign indications for surgery showed similar trends. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that racial minority patients are less likely to receive a minimally invasive surgical approach compared with an open abdominal approach despite universal insurance coverage. Further work is warranted to better understand factors other than insurance access that may contribute to racial differences in surgical approach to hysterectomies.

The relationship between variations in cesarean delivery and regional health care use in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean delivery rates vary widely across the United States. Health care usage in many other areas of medicine also varies widely across the United States; it is unknown whether the variation in cesarean delivery rates across US communities is correlated with this broader underlying variation in health care usage patterns. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the variation in cesarean delivery rates across US communities is correlated with other measures of health care usage in that community. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a population-based observational study that combined multiple national data sources, which included 2010 birth certificate data and Medicare claims data. Cesarean delivery rates in each US community, as defined by the Hospital Service Area, Medicare total spending per beneficiary, and hospital days in the last 6 months were calculated. Cesarean delivery and Medicare spending were on different patient populations; the Medicare variables were used to characterize the broader health care usage and spending pattern of that community. We examined the relationship between a community's cesarean delivery rates and these measures of health care usage using Pearson correlation coefficients. We also stratified by quartile of Medicare spending and hospital use in the last 6 months of life and calculated the cesarean delivery rates per quartile, adjusting for underlying differences in patient characteristics, demographics, hospital structure, and the malpractice environment using a least-squared means method. We compared the amount of variation in cesarean delivery rates across communities that could be explained by differences in health care usage patterns to the amount of variation that was explained by other factors using the R-squared from multivariable models. RESULTS: Cesarean delivery rates varied from 4-65% across communities in the United States. Cesarean delivery rates were correlated positively with total Medicare spending (r = 0.48; P < .001) and hospital use in the last 6 months of life (r = 0.45; P < .001). Similar variation was seen in nulliparous women with a term fetus in vertex presentation (nulliparous, term, singleton, vertex cesarean deliveries), which is a common subset used for analysis of cesarean delivery rates. Communities in the lowest quartile of Medicare spending had the lowest rates of cesarean delivery (29.1% vs 35.7% in the highest quartile; P < .001 for differences across quartiles), which is a difference that persisted after adjustment (29.5% vs 31.8%; P < .001). Similar results were seen for nulliparous, term, singleton, vertex cesarean deliveries and when data were stratified by hospital days in the last 6 months of life. Overall, 28.6% of the total variation in cesarean delivery rates was explained by differences in health care usage patterns, as compared with 16.6% by differences in obstetric procedures, 7.9% by hospital structure, and 2.3% by variations in the malpractice environment. Of the 56.3% of variation that was unexplained by differences in patient characteristics and area demographics, 8.2% could be accounted for by differences in health care usage patterns, as compared with 4.6% by differences in obstetric procedures, 2.1% by hospital structure, and 1.2% by variation in the malpractice environment. CONCLUSION: Cesarean delivery rates vary widely across US communities; this variation is correlated broadly with the variation that is seen in other measures of health care usage across US communities.

Obstetrician volume as a potentially modifiable risk factor for cesarean delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between an obstetrician's delivery volume and a patient's risk for cesarean delivery. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study examined patient-level and obstetrician-level data between 2000 and 2012 at a large academic hospital. All laboring patients who delivered viable, liveborn, singleton newborns (N=58,328) were included. We measured the association of delivery volume and cesarean delivery using a multivariate logistic regression. We also assessed the association of volume by calculating adjusted cesarean delivery rates using the least squares means method. These analyses were performed on the subset of nulliparous patients with term, singleton, vertex-presenting fetuses. In addition, the association of obstetrician experience was compared against delivery volume. RESULTS: There was a twofold increase in the odds of cesarean delivery for patients whose obstetricians performed fewer than the median (60) number of deliveries per year (quartile 1: odds ratio 2.00, 95% confidence interval 1.68-2.38; quartile 2: odds ratio 2.73, 95% CI 2.40-3.11) as compared with quartile 4. The adjusted cesarean delivery rate decreased from 18.2% to 9.2% from the highest to lowest volume quartile (P<.001). Compared with the volume effects, an obstetrician's experience had a smaller effect on a patient's risk of cesarean delivery. CONCLUSION: Patients delivered by obstetricians with low delivery volume are at significantly increased risk for cesarean delivery after controlling for patient and obstetrician characteristics. In contrast, obstetrician experience had a less significant effect. These findings may prompt discussions regarding the role of volume in credentialing and practice models that direct patients to obstetricians with high delivery volume. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: : II.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of prophylactic surgery versus gynecologic surveillance for women from hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) Families.

Women at risk for Lynch Syndrome/HNPCC have an increased lifetime risk of endometrial and ovarian cancer. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic surgery versus surveillance in women with Lynch Syndrome. A decision analytic model was designed incorporating key clinical decisions and existing probabilities, costs, and outcomes from the literature. Clinical forum where risk-reducing surgery and surveillance were considered. A theoretical population of women with Lynch Syndrome at age 30 was used for the analysis. A decision analytic model was designed comparing the health outcomes of prophylactic hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy at age 30 versus annual gynecologic screening versus annual gynecologic exam. The literature was searched for probabilities of different health outcomes, results of screening modalities, and costs of cancer diagnosis and treatment. Cost-effectiveness expressed in dollars per discounted life-years. Risk-reducing surgery is the least expensive option, costing $23,422 per patient for 25.71 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Annual screening costs $68,392 for 25.17 QALYs; and annual examination without screening costs $100,484 for 24.60 QALYs. Further, because risk-reducing surgery leads to both the lowest costs and the highest number of QALYs, it is a dominant strategy. Risk-reducing surgery is the most cost-effective option from a societal healthcare cost perspective.

Cost-effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 41 weeks in nulliparous women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 41 weeks in nulliparous women. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model comparing induction of labor at 41 weeks vs expectant management with antenatal testing until 42 weeks in nulliparas was designed. Baseline assumptions were derived from the literature as well as from analysis of the National Birth Cohort dataset and included an intrauterine fetal demise rate of 0.12% in the 41st week and a cesarean rate of 27% in women induced at 41 weeks. One-way and multiway sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: Compared with expectant management, induction of labor is cost-effective with an incremental cost of $10,945 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Induction of labor at 41 weeks also resulted in a lower rate of adverse obstetric outcomes, including neonatal demise, shoulder dystocia, meconium aspiration syndrome, and severe perineal lacerations. CONCLUSION: Elective induction of labor at 41 weeks is cost-effective and improves outcomes.

When should women with placenta previa be delivered? A decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal gestational age of delivery for women with placenta previa by accounting for both neonatal and maternal outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A decision-analytic model was designed comparing total maternal and neonatal quality-adjusted life years for delivery of women with previa at gestational ages from 34 to 38 weeks. At each week, we allowed for four different delivery strategies: (1) immediate delivery, without amniocentesis or steroids; (2) delivery 48 hours after steroid administration (without amniocentesis); (3) amniocentesis with delivery if fetal lung maturity (FLM) positive or retesting in one week if FLM negative; (4) amniocentesis with delivery if FLM testing is positive or administration of steroids if FLM negative. RESULTS: Delivery at 36 weeks, 48 hours after steroids, for women with previa optimizes maternal and neonatal outcomes. In sensitivity analyses, these results were robust to a wide range of variation in input assumptions. If it is assumed that steroids offer no neonatal benefit at this gestational age, outright delivery at 36 weeks' gestation is the best strategy. CONCLUSION: Steroid administration at 35 weeks and 5 days followed by delivery at 36 weeks for women with placenta previa optimizes maternal and neonatal outcomes.

The cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening for spinal muscular atrophy.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate the cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model was created to compare a policy of universal SMA screening to that of no screening. The primary outcome was incremental cost per maternal quality-adjusted life year. Probabilities, costs, and outcomes were estimated through literature review. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of our model to changes in baseline assumptions. RESULTS: Universal screening for SMA is not cost-effective at $4.9 million per quality-adjusted life year. In all, 12,500 women need to be screened to prevent 1 case of SMA, at a cost of $5.0 million per case averted. Our results were most sensitive to the baseline prevalence of disease. CONCLUSION: Universal prenatal screening for SMA is not cost-effective. For populations at high risk, such as those with a family history, SMA testing may be a cost-effective strategy.

The financial effects of expanding postpartum contraception for new immigrants.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs of expanding Emergency Medicaid coverage to include postpartum contraception. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was developed using three perspectives: the hospital, state Medicaid programs, and society. Our primary outcome was future reproductive health care costs due to pregnancy in the next 5 years. A Markov structure was use to analyze the probability of pregnancy over a 5-year time period. Model inputs were retrieved from the existing literature and local hospital and Medicaid data related to reimbursements. One-way and multiway sensitivity analyses were conducted. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to incorporate uncertainty from all of the model inputs simultaneously. RESULTS: Over a 5-year period, provision of contraception would save society $17,792 per woman in future pregnancy costs and incur a loss of $367 for hospitals. In states in which 49% of immigrants remain in the area for 5 years, such a program would save state Medicaid $108 per woman. CONCLUSION: Under federal regulations, new immigrants are restricted to acute, hospital-based care only. Failure to provide the option of contraception postpartum results in increased costs for society and states with long-term immigrants.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of elective induction of labor.

BACKGROUND: Induction of labor is on the rise in the U.S., increasing from 9.5 percent in 1990 to 22.1 percent in 2004. Although, it is not entirely clear what proportion of these inductions are elective (i.e. without a medical indication), the overall rate of induction of labor is rising faster than the rate of pregnancy complications that would lead to a medically indicated induction. However, the maternal and neonatal effects of induction of labor are unclear. Many studies compare women with induction of labor to those in spontaneous labor. This is problematic, because at any point in the management of the woman with a term gestation, the clinician has the choice between induction of labor and expectant management, not spontaneous labor. Expectant management of the pregnancy involves nonintervention at any particular point in time and allowing the pregnancy to progress to a future gestational age. Thus, women undergoing expectant management may go into spontaneous labor or may require indicated induction of labor at a future gestational age. OBJECTIVES: The Stanford-UCSF Evidence-Based Practice Center examined the evidence regarding four Key Questions: What evidence describes the maternal risks of elective induction versus expectant management? What evidence describes the fetal/neonatal risks of elective induction versus expectant management? What is the evidence that certain physical conditions/patient characteristics are predictive of a successful induction of labor? How is a failed induction defined? METHODS: We performed a systematic review to answer the Key Questions. We searched MEDLINE(1966-2007) and bibliographies of prior systematic reviews and the included studies for English language studies of maternal and fetal outcomes after elective induction of labor. We evaluated the quality of included studies. When possible, we synthesized study data using random effects models. We also evaluated the potential clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of elective induction of labor versus expectant management of pregnancy labor at 41, 40, and 39 weeks' gestation using decision-analytic models. RESULTS: Our searches identified 3,722 potentially relevant articles, of which 76 articles met inclusion criteria. Nine RCTs compared expectant management with elective induction of labor. We found that overall, expectant management of pregnancy was associated with an approximately 22 percent higher odds of cesarean delivery than elective induction of labor (OR 1.22, 95 percent CI 1.07-1.39; absolute risk difference 1.9, 95 percent CI: 0.2-3.7 percent). The majority of these studies were in women at or beyond 41 weeks of gestation (OR 1.21, 95 percent CI 1.01-1.46). In studies of women at or beyond 41 weeks of gestation, the evidence was rated as moderate because of the size and number of studies and consistency of the findings. Among women less than 41 weeks of gestation, there were three trials which reported no difference in risk of cesarean delivery among women who were induced as compared to expectant management (OR 1.73; 95 percent CI: 0.67-4.5, P=0.26), but all of these trials were small, non-U.S., older, and of poor quality. When we stratified the analysis by country, we found that the odds of cesarean delivery were higher in women who were expectantly managed compared to elective induction of labor in studies conducted outside the U.S. (OR 1.22; 95 percent CI 1.05-1.40) but were not statistically different in studies conducted in the U.S. (OR 1.28; 95 percent CI 0.65-2.49). Women who were expectantly managed were also more likely to have meconium-stained amniotic fluid than those who were electively induced (OR 2.04; 95 percent CI: 1.34-3.09). Observational studies reported a consistently lower risk of cesarean delivery among women who underwent spontaneous labor (6 percent) compared with women who had an elective induction of labor (8 percent) with a statistically significant decrease when combined (OR 0.63; 95 percent CI: 0.49-0.79), but again utilized the wrong control group and did not appropriately adjust for gestational age. We found moderate to high quality evidence that increased parity, a more favorable cervical status as assessed by a higher Bishop score, and decreased gestational age were associated with successful labor induction (58 percent of the included studies defined success as achieving a vaginal delivery anytime after the onset of the induction of labor; in these instances, induction was considered a failure when it led to a cesarean delivery). In the decision analytic model, we utilized a baseline assumption of no difference in cesarean delivery between the two arms as there was no statistically significant difference in the U.S. studies or in women prior to 41 0/7 weeks of gestation. In each of the models, women who were electively induced had better overall outcomes among both mothers and neonates as estimated by total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as well as by reduction in specific perinatal outcomes such as shoulder dystocia, meconium aspiration syndrome, and preeclampsia. Additionally, induction of labor was cost-effective at $10,789 per QALY with elective induction of labor at 41 weeks of gestation, $9,932 per QALY at 40 weeks of gestation, and $20,222 per QALY at 39 weeks of gestation utilizing a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000 per QALY. At 41 weeks of gestation, these results were generally robust to variations in the assumed ranges in univariate and multi-way sensitivity analyses. However, the findings of cost-effectiveness at 40 and 39 weeks of gestation were not robust to the ranges of the assumptions. In addition, the strength of evidence for some model inputs was low, therefore our analyses are exploratory rather than definitive. CONCLUSIONS: Randomized controlled trials suggest that elective induction of labor at 41 weeks of gestation and beyond may be associated with a decrease in both the risk of cesarean delivery and of meconium-stained amniotic fluid. The evidence regarding elective induction of labor prior to 41 weeks of gestation is insufficient to draw any conclusion. There is a paucity of information from prospective RCTs examining other maternal or neonatal outcomes in the setting of elective induction of labor. Observational studies found higher rates of cesarean delivery with elective induction of labor, but compared women undergoing induction of labor to women in spontaneous labor and were subject to potential confounding bias, particularly from gestational age. Such studies do not inform the question of how elective induction of labor affects maternal or neonatal outcomes. Elective induction of labor at 41 weeks of gestation and potentially earlier also appears to be a cost-effective intervention, but because of the need for further data to populate these models our analyses are not definitive. Despite the evidence from the prospective, RCTs reported above, there are concerns about the translation of such findings into actual practice, thus, there is a great need for studying the translation of such research into settings where the majority of obstetric care is provided.

Cost of transferring one through five embryos per in vitro fertilization cycle from various payor perspectives.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the costs of transferring one through five embryos per in vitro fertilization cycle from each of three perspectives: society, the infertile couple, and the insurer. METHODS: Data from the 2003 Assisted Reproductive Technology Report was used to create Markov decision analytic models stratified by maternal age subgroup. We modeled both total costs, cost-effectiveness (cost per live birth), and clinical outcomes: multiple births, preterm deliveries, and cerebral palsy. RESULTS: From a societal and insurer perspective, it was least expensive to transfer one embryo. For women aged younger than 35 years, it cost society 80% more to transfer five rather than one embryo at a time (total cost 39,212 dollars compared with 21,661 dollars). For women aged older than 42 years, it cost 13% more (29,102 dollars compared with 25,723 dollars). From a parental perspective, it was least expensive to transfer between two and five embryos, depending on maternal age. One-embryo transfers markedly improved clinical outcomes. For example, two compared with one-embryo transfers for women aged younger than 35 years reduced preterm birth and cerebral palsy rates by 55% and 41%, respectively. Univariable sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation showed our results to be robust. CONCLUSION: Transferring one embryo per cycle is the least expensive strategy from a societal perspective, especially for younger women, yet it is the most expensive option from a parental perspective. To reduce in vitro fertilization-associated multiple birth rates, public policy must address these disparate financial incentives.

Acyclovir prophylaxis for pregnant women with a known history of herpes simplex virus: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Previous literature has shown acyclovir to be cost-effective as prophylaxis for women with genital symptomatic herpes simplex virus infection recurrence during pregnancy. We extend this analysis by adding quality-adjusted life year measurements and considering women with a diagnosed history of herpes simplex virus infection but without recurrence in pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model was designed that compared acyclovir prophylaxis versus no acyclovir for women with a history of diagnosed genital herpes simplex virus infection but without recurrence in pregnancy. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to test for robustness. RESULTS: We found that 22,286 women must be treated to prevent 1 neonatal death, 8985 women to prevent 1 affected child, and 177 women to prevent 1 cesarean delivery. As compared with no acyclovir, acyclovir prophylaxis at 36 weeks of gestation saves approximately dollar 20 per person and increases total quality-adjusted life years by 0.01. In univariate sensitivity analysis, this result was robust to all reasonable probability and quality-adjusted life year estimates. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated acyclovir to be cost-effective 100% of the time and cost saving >99% of the time. CONCLUSION: Acyclovir prophylaxis versus no treatment for pregnant women with a diagnosed history of genital herpes simplex virus infection but without recurrence during pregnancy is cost-effective over a wide range of assumptions.