When the economy falters, hearts suffer: Economic recessions as a social determinant of health in cardiovascular emergencies.

INTRODUCTION: While the relationships between cardiovascular disease (CVD), stress, and financial strain are well studied, the association between recessionary periods and macroeconomic conditions on incidence of disease-specific CVD emergency department (ED) visits is not well established. OBJECTIVES: This retrospective observational study aimed to assess the relationship between macroeconomic trends and CVD ED visits. METHODS: This study uses data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Care Survey (NHAMCS), Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and CVD groupings from National Vital Statistics (NVS) and Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) from 1999 to 2020 to analyze ED visits in relation to macroeconomic indicators and NBER defined recessions and expansions. RESULTS: CVD ED visits grew by 79.7% from 1999 to 2020, significantly more than total ED visits (27.8%, p < 0.001). A national estimate of 213.2 million CVD ED visits, with 22.9 million visits in economic recessions were analyzed. A secondary group including a 6-month period before and after each recession (defined as a "broadened recession") was also analyzed to account for potential leading and lagging effects of the recession, with a total of 50.0 million visits. A significantly higher proportion of CVD ED visits related to heart failure (HF) and other acute ischemic heart diseases (IHD) was observed during recessionary time periods both directly and with a 6-month lead and lag (p < 0.05). The proportion of aortic aneurysm and dissection (AAA) and atherosclerosis (ASVD) ED visits was significantly higher (p = 0.024) in the recession period with a 6-month lead and lag. When controlled for common demographic factors, economic approximations of recession such as the CPI, federal funds rate, and real disposable income were significantly associated with increased CVD ED visits. CONCLUSION: Macroeconomic trends have a significant relationship with the overall mix of CVD ED visits and represent an understudied social determinant of health.

A pressure ulcers assessment system for diagnosis and decision making using convolutional neural networks.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Pressure ulcers are a common problem in hospital care and long-term care. Pressure ulcers are caused by prolonged compression of soft tissues, which can cause local tissue damage and even lead to serious infections. This study uses a deep learning algorithm to construct a system that diagnoses pressure ulcers and assists in making treatment decisions, thus providing additional reference for first-line caregivers. METHODS: We performed a retrospective research of medical records to find photos of patients with pressure ulcers at National Taiwan University Hospital from 2016 to 2020. We used photos from 2016 to 2019 for training and after removing the photos which were vague, underexposed, or overexposed, 327 photos were obtained. The photos were then labeled as "erythema" or "non-erythema" for the first classification task and "extensive necrosis", "moderate necrosis" or "limited necrosis" for the second, by consensus of three recruited physicians. An Inception-ResNet-v2 model, a kind of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), was applied for training these two classification tasks to construct an assessment system. Finally, we tested the model with the photos of pressure ulcers taken from 2019 to 2020 to verify its accuracy. RESULTS: For the task of classification of erythema and non-erythema wounds, our CNN model achieved an accuracy of about 98.5%. For the task of classification of necrotic tissue, our model achieved accuracy of about 97%. CONCLUSION: Our CNN model, which was based on Inception-ResNet-v2, achieved high accuracy when classifying different types of pressure ulcers, making it applicable in clinical circumstances.

Response of a local hospital to a burn disaster: Contributory factors leading to zero mortality outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the outcomes of a local healthcare system in managing a burn mass casualty incident (BMCI). METHODS: Thirty-three victims admitted to the National Taiwan University Hospital within 96h of the explosion were included in the study. Data were recorded on: patient demographics, Baux score, laboratory data, management response, treatment strategies, and outcomes. Case notes from June 27, 2015 to November 2015 were reviewed with a focus on fluid resuscitation, ventilation support, nutrition, infection control, sepsis treatment, and wound closure plan. RESULTS: Female predominance (mean age: 21.7 years) and lower extremity circumferential flame burns were the characteristics of the burn injury. The mean Baux score was 70±18. The mean burn area was 42% of the total body surface area (TBSA). A total of 79% patients arrived at the hospital within 24h of sustaining injuries. Intensive care unit (ICU) admission criteria were modified to accommodate patients with 40% TBSA of burns, facilities were expanded from 4 ICU beds to 18 beds, and new staff was recruited. A total of 36% patients (n=12/33, 62±13 TBSA of burns) required fluid resuscitation. The mean volume of Lactate Ringer administered in the first 24h of burns was 3.34±2.18ml/kg/%TBSA, while the mean volume of fresh frozen plasma administered was 0.60±0.63ml/kg/h. Forty-two percent patients were intubated on the day of admission, and 71% of the intubated patients had inhalation injuries that were confirmed by diagnostic bronchoscopy. The mean intubation period was 17±9 days. The incidence of pulmonary edema was 58% (n=7/12), possibly due to sub-optimal monitoring. Of these, 57% (n=4/7) patients progressed to adult respiratory distress syndrome, but were successfully treated with early strict fluid restriction, systemic antibiotics, ventilation support, and bronchial lavage. A total of 94% patients received grafting. The mean grafted area was 4432.3±3891cm2. Tube feeding was provided to patients with burns >40% TBSA. All patients tolerated gastric tube feeding without conversion to duodenal switch. On admission, all patients received prophylactic antibiotics. Septic shock was noted in 12 patients, but no mortality occurred. The mean hospital stay was 1.5 days per percent burn. CONCLUSIONS: This article highlights the value of precise triage, traffic control, and effective resource allocation in treating a BMCI. Effective supporting systems for facility expansion, staff recruitment, medical supplies and clear-cut treatment strategies for severely burned patients are contributory factors leading to zero mortalities in our series, in addition to young age and minimal inhalation injuries. The need for reevaluation of the safety of cornstarch powder in festival activities is clear.

Economic analysis of the future growth of cosmetic surgery procedures.

BACKGROUND: The economic growth of cosmetic surgical and nonsurgical procedures has been tremendous. Between 1992 and 2005, annual U.S. cosmetic surgery volume increased by 725 percent, with over $10 billion spent in 2005. It is unknown whether this growth will continue for the next decade and, if so, what impact it will it have on the plastic surgeon workforce. METHODS: The authors analyzed annual U.S. cosmetic surgery procedure volume reported by the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS) National Clearinghouse of Plastic Surgery Statistics between 1992 and 2005. Reconstructive plastic surgery volume was not included in the analysis. The authors analyzed the ability of economic and noneconomic variables to predict annual cosmetic surgery volume. The authors also used growth rate analyses to construct models with which to predict the future growth of cosmetic surgery. RESULTS: None of the economic and noneconomic variables were a significant predictor of annual cosmetic surgery volume. Instead, based on current compound annual growth rates, the authors predict that total cosmetic surgery volume (surgical and nonsurgical) will exceed 55 million annual procedures by 2015. ASPS members are projected to perform 299 surgical and 2165 nonsurgical annual procedures. Non-ASPS members are projected to perform 39 surgical and 1448 nonsurgical annual procedures. CONCLUSIONS: If current growth rates continue into the next decade, the future demand in cosmetic surgery will be driven largely by nonsurgical procedures. The growth of surgical procedures will be met by ASPS members. However, meeting the projected growth in nonsurgical procedures could be a potential challenge and a potential area for increased competition.