Modeling analysis of COVID-19 based on morbidity data in Anhui, China.

Since the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan Hubei, China, was reported in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the country and overseas. The first case in Anhui, a province of China, was reported on January 10, 2020. In the field of infectious diseases, modeling, evaluating and predicting the rate of disease transmission is very important for epidemic prevention and control. Different intervention measures have been implemented starting from different time nodes in the country and Anhui, the epidemic may be divided into three stages for January 10 to February 11, 2020, namely. We adopted interrupted time series method and develop an SEI/QR model to analyse the data. Our results displayed that the lockdown of Wuhan implemented on January 23, 2020 reduced the contact rate of epidemic transmission in Anhui province by 48.37%, and centralized quarantine management policy for close contacts in Anhui reduced the contact rate by an additional 36.97%. At the same time, the estimated basic reproduction number gradually decreased from the initial 2.9764 to 0.8667 and then to 0.5725. We conclude that the Wuhan lockdown and the centralized quarantine management policy in Anhui played a crucial role in the timely and effective mitigation of the epidemic in Anhui. One merit of this work is the adoption of morbidity data which may reflect the epidemic more accurately and promptly. Our estimated parameters are largely in line with the World Health Organization estimates and previous studies.

Mortality and Disease Burden of Injuries from 2008 to 2017 in Anhui Province, China.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the temporal trends in mortality and disease burden of injuries in Anhui province from 2008 to 2017, so as to provide reference for injury control and prevention. METHODS: Data of mortality were collected from 9 national surveillance points in Anhui province during 2008-2017 in the Information System for Death Cause Register and Management. The surveillance data were analyzed by using crude mortality, standardized mortality rate (SMR), potential year of life lost (PYLL), PYLL rate (PYLLR), and average of year life lost (AYLL). RESULTS: There were a total of 44855 people died from injury, accounted for 9.44% of the all-cause mortality, ranked as the fifth leading cause of deaths in the whole population, and denoted the first leading cause of deaths in the 0-44 year's group. The leading causes of injury deaths were road traffic accidents, suicide, accidental falls, drowning, and poisoning. Road traffic accidents was the primary cause of injury deaths among the male population, while suicide was the dominate cause of injury deaths among the female population. Drowning, traffic accidents, and suicide accounted for the most injury deaths among the population aged 0-14 years, 15-64 years, and above 60 years, respectively. The road traffic accidents accounted for the largest proportion of injury PYLL and PYLLR, and drowning caused the highest AYLL among injury deaths. CONCLUSION: In Anhui province, road traffic accidents, suicide, accidental falls, drowning, and poisoning were the top five causes of injury deaths that harm the health of local residents; corresponding injury prevention strategies should be formulated.