Epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in a country with universal access to direct-acting antiviral agents: Data for designing a cost-effective elimination policy in Spain.

Accurate HCV prevalence estimates are necessary for guiding elimination policies. Our aim was to determine the HCV prevalence and assess the cost-effectiveness of a screen-and-treat strategy in the Spanish population. A population-based, cross-sectional study (PREVHEP-ETHON Cohort, Epidemiological sTudy of Hepatic infectiONs; NCT02749864) was performed from July 2015-April 2017. Participants from three Spanish regions were selected using two-stage conglomerate sampling, and stratified by age, with randomized subject selection. Anthropometric and demographic data were collected, and blood samples were taken to detect anti-HCV antibodies/quantify HCV RNA. The cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies and treatment were analysed using a Markov model. Among 12 246 participants aged 20-74 (58.4% females), the overall anti-HCV prevalence was 1.2% (95% CI 1.0-1.4), whereas the detectable HCV-RNA prevalence was 0.3% (0.2-0.4). Infection rates were highest in subjects aged 50-74 years [anti-HCV 1.6% (1.3-1.9), HCV RNA 0.4% (0.3-0.6]. Among the 147 anti-HCV + subjects, 38 (25.9%) had active infections while 109 (74.1%) had been cleared of infection; 44 (40.4%) had cleared after antiviral treatment, whereas 65 (59.6%) had cleared spontaneously. Overall, 59.8% of the anti-HCV + participants were aware of their serological status. Considering a cost of treatment of €7000/patient, implementing screening programmes is cost-effective across all age cohorts, particularly in patients aged 50-54 (negative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio which indicates a cost-saving strategy). The current HCV burden is lower than previously estimated, with approximately 25% of anti-HCV + individuals having an active infection. A strategy of screening and treatment at current treatment prices in Spain is cost-effective across all age cohorts.

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

Assessment of portal hypertension by transient elastography in patients with compensated cirrhosis and potentially resectable liver tumors.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma with normal bilirubin and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) <10 mm Hg have >70% 5-year survival after hepatic resection. On the contrary, patients with HVPG ≥10 mm Hg (clinically significant portal hypertension, CSPH) frequently develop decompensation following surgery, with around 50% 5-year survival. Liver stiffness (LS) evaluation by transient elastography might non-invasively identify CSPH. We investigated the usefulness of LS predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and potentially resectable liver tumors. METHODS: Ninety-seven consecutive Child-Pugh A patients with potentially resectable liver tumors referred for HVPG measurement were prospectively evaluated. In fasting conditions LS was measured before the hemodynamic study. RESULTS: HVPG could be measured in all patients, whereas LS could not be measured in 18 (18.5%) obese patients. In the 79 patients with valid LS, 32 (40.5%) had CSPH; mean HVPG was 8.8±4.7 mm Hg. Mean LS was 18.4±12.3 kPa. LS showed a moderate correlation with HVPG (r=0.552; p<0.001). LS<13.6 kPa had high sensitivity (91%) but low specificity (57%) excluding CSPH. Conversely, LS>21 kPa had low sensitivity (53%) and high specificity (91%) predicting CSPH. 35% of patients had LS between 13.6 and 21 kPa ("grey zone"). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that in real-life scenarios half of patients with potentially resectable liver nodules can be non-invasively classified as having or not CSPH by LS. However, in the remaining half, LS is either not applicable or inaccurate. In this last population HVPG is still a non replaceable method to detect CSPH.