US County-Level Variation in Preterm Birth Rates, 2007-2019.

Importance: Preterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level. Objective: To estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial cross-sectional study used data from the National Center for Health Statistics composed of all live births in the US between 2007 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between March 22, 2022, and September 29, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) and secondarily early preterm birth (<34 weeks' gestation) rates by county and year calculated with a validated small area estimation model (hierarchical bayesian spatiotemporal model) and percent change in preterm birth rates using log-linear regression models. Results: Between 2007 and 2019, there were 51 044 482 live births in 2383 counties. In 2007, the national age-standardized preterm birth rate was 12.6 (95% CI, 12.6-12.7) per 100 live births. Preterm birth rates varied significantly among counties, with an absolute difference between the 90th and 10th percentile counties of 6.4 (95% CI, 6.2-6.7). The gap between the highest and lowest counties for preterm births was 20.7 per 100 live births in 2007. Several counties in the Southeast consistently had the highest preterm birth rates compared with counties in California and New England, which had the lowest preterm birth rates. Although there was no statistically significant change in preterm birth rates between 2007 and 2019 at the national level (percent change, -5.0%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 0.9%), increases occurred in 15.4% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.9%) of counties. The absolute and relative geographic inequalities were similar across all maternal age groups. Higher quartile of the Social Vulnerability Index was associated with higher preterm birth rates (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 risk ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31-1.36), which persisted across the study period. Similar patterns were observed for early preterm birth rates. Conclusions and Relevance: In this serial cross-sectional study of county-level preterm and early preterm birth rates, substantial geographic disparities were observed, which were associated with place-based social disadvantage. Stability in aggregated rates of preterm birth at the national level masked increases in nearly 1 in 6 counties between 2007 and 2019.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

Inequalities in urban greenness and epigenetic aging: Different associations by race and neighborhood socioeconomic status.

Slower epigenetic aging is associated with exposure to green space (greenness); however, the longitudinal relationship has not been well studied, particularly in minority groups. We investigated the association between 20-year exposure to greenness [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and epigenetic aging in a large, biracial (Black/white), U.S. urban cohort. Using generalized estimating equations adjusted for individual and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics, greater greenness was associated with slower epigenetic aging. Black participants had less surrounding greenness and an attenuated association between greenness and epigenetic aging [ßNDVI5km: -0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): -4.75, 3.13 versus ßNDVI5km: -3.03, 95% CI: -5.63, -0.43 in white participants]. Participants in disadvantaged neighborhoods showed a stronger association between greenness and epigenetic aging (ßNDVI5km: -3.36, 95% CI: -6.65, -0.08 versus ßNDVI5km: -1.57, 95% CI: -4.12, 0.96 in less disadvantaged). In conclusion, we found a relationship between greenness and slower epigenetic aging, and different associations by social determinants of health such as race and neighborhood socioeconomic status.

Contribution of social, behavioral, and contextual exposures to Black-White disparities in incident obesity: The CARDIA study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to quantify the contributions of socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioral, reproductive, and neighborhood exposures in young adulthood to Black-White differences in incident obesity. METHODS: In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, 4488 Black or White adults aged 18 to 30 years without obesity at baseline (1985-1986) were followed over 30 years. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate Black-White differences in incident obesity. Models were adjusted for baseline and time-updated indicators. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1777 participants developed obesity. Black women were 1.87 (95% CI: 1.63-2.13) times more likely and Black men were 1.53 (95% CI: 1.32-1.77) times more likely to develop obesity than their White counterparts after adjusting for age, field center, and baseline BMI. Baseline exposures explained 43% of this difference in women and 52% in men. Time-updated exposures explained more of the racial difference in women but less for men, compared with baseline exposures. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting for these exposures accounted for a substantial but incomplete proportion of racial disparities in incident obesity. Remaining differences may be explained by incomplete capture of the most salient aspects of these exposures or potential variation in the impact of these exposures on obesity by race.

Secondhand tobacco smoke exposure, urine cotinine, and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposure may reduce heart rate variability and lead to atrial fibrillation (AF); however prior study findings have not been confirmed using objective measures for both SHS and AF events. METHODS: We prospectively examined the association between SHS exposure and incident AF in 5731 participants, ages of 45-84 years and free of known AF and other cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline (2000-2002), who were followed through 2015 in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). SHS weekly exposure time was identified by self-report. Urine cotinine was collected in a cohort subset of 3237 current non-smoking cohort participants. AF events were identified using Medicare claims, hospital records, and 12­lead electrocardiographic findings. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used with simultaneous adjustment for demographic factors, educational level, health insurance status, active smoking status, tobacco pack-years, traditional CVD risk factors, depressive symptoms and medications. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14.0 years, 856 and 452 AF events were identified in the overall and the cohort subset, respectively. No association of SHS exposure time or urine cotinine with incident AF was observed. However, a higher AF risk with greater urine cotinine (8.53-442.0 ng/mL) compared with lower urine cotinine (≤7.07 ng/mL) was observed in never smokers [hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals: 1.60 (1.16, 2.19)], but not in former smokers [HR: 0.88 (0.63, 1.23)] (p-value for multiplicative interaction: 0.009 and for additive interaction: 0.017, respectively). CONCLUSION: Objectively measured greater SHS exposure expressed by urine cotinine might be associated with 1.6-fold higher risk of incident AF in never smokers.

Coronary Artery Calcium Test for Heart Disease Risk Assessment.

This Patient Page describes what it means to have coronary heart calcium, why a clinician may recommend testing for it, and the benefits and risks of knowing your coronary heart calcium score.

Association of Body Mass Index in Midlife With Morbidity Burden in Older Adulthood and Longevity.

Importance: Abundant evidence links obesity with adverse health consequences. However, controversies persist regarding whether overweight status compared with normal body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with longer survival and whether this occurs at the expense of greater long-term morbidity and health care expenditures. Objective: To examine the association of BMI in midlife with morbidity burden, longevity, and health care expenditures in adults 65 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study at the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, with baseline in-person examination between November 1967 and January 1973 linked with Medicare follow-up between January 1985 and December 2015. Participants included 29 621 adults who were at least age 65 years in follow-up and enrolled in Medicare. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to December 2021. Exposures: Standard BMI categories. Main Outcomes and Measures: (1) Morbidity burden at 65 years and older assessed with the Gagne combined comorbidity score (ranging from -2 to 26, with higher score associated with higher mortality), which is a well-validated index based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for use in administrative data sets; (2) longevity (age at death); and (3) health care costs based on Medicare linkage in older adulthood (aged ≥65 years). Results: Among 29 621 participants, mean (SD) age was 40 (12) years, 57.1% were men, and 9.1% were Black; 46.0% had normal BMI, 39.6% were overweight, and 11.9% had classes I and II obesity at baseline. Higher cumulative morbidity burden in older adulthood was observed among those who were overweight (7.22 morbidity-years) and those with classes I and II obesity (9.80) compared with those with a normal BMI (6.10) in midlife (P < .001). Mean age at death was similar between those who were overweight (82.1 years [95% CI, 81.9-82.2 years]) and those who had normal BMI (82.3 years [95% CI, 82.1-82.5 years]) but shorter in those who with classes I and II obesity (80.8 years [95% CI, 80.5-81.1 years]). The proportion (SE) of life-years lived in older adulthood with Gagne score of at least 1 was 0.38% (0.00%) in those with a normal BMI, 0.41% (0.00%) in those with overweight, and 0.43% (0.01%) in those with classes I and II obesity. Cumulative median per-person health care costs in older adulthood were significantly higher among overweight participants ($12 390 [95% CI, $10 427 to $14 354]) and those with classes I and II obesity ($23 396 [95% CI, $18 474 to $28 319]) participants compared with those with a normal BMI (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, overweight in midlife, compared with normal BMI, was associated with higher cumulative burden of morbidity and greater proportion of life lived with morbidity in the context of similar longevity. These findings translated to higher total health care expenditures in older adulthood for those who were overweight in midlife.

Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Testing for Risk Assessment in Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Review.

Importance: Current guidelines recommend a few different approaches to the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing as a tool for risk assessment and decision-making regarding drug therapy for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Observations: Coronary artery calcium testing is not recommended for universal screening, particularly in patients at very low or high predicted risk for ASCVD, where its yield and utility for altering clinical decisions are limited. Use of CAC testing appears to be optimal when used in selected patients who are at intermediate or borderline risk of ASCVD as a sequential decision aid after initial quantitative risk assessment and consideration of individual patient risk-enhancing factors (eg, strong family history of premature ASCVD, chronic kidney disease). Although convincing clinical trials have not been completed, observational studies strongly suggest that, in those at intermediate risk, CAC testing can meaningfully reclassify risk and can support improved targeting of drug therapy to patients most likely to benefit. Conclusions and Relevance: This narrative review summarizes the evidence available about the appropriate role of CAC testing for ASCVD risk assessment. Coronary artery calcium testing should be used selectively in patients who are at intermediate risk of ASCVD, when there is persistent uncertainty after performing standard risk assessment using traditional risk factors in a risk score, and after consideration of additional individual risk-enhancing factors. In these situations, the result of the CAC test can be helpful to clarify whether the patient's true risk is high enough to justify initiation of primary prevention medications, such as statins or aspirin.

Decision Tree-Based Classification for Maintaining Normal Blood Pressure Throughout Early Adulthood and Middle Age: Findings From the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: For most individuals, blood pressure (BP) is related to multiple risk factors. By utilizing the decision tree analysis technique, this study aimed to identify the best discriminative risk factors and interactions that are associated with maintaining normal BP over 30 years and to reveal segments of a population with a high probability of maintaining normal BP. METHODS: Participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study aged 18-30 years with normal BP level at baseline visit (Y0, 1985-1986) were included in this study. RESULTS: Of 3,156 participants, 1,132 (35.9%) maintained normal BP during the follow-up period and 2,024 (64.1%) developed higher BP. Systolic BP (SBP) within the normal range, race, and body mass index (BMI) were the most discriminative factors between participants who maintained normal BP throughout midlife and those who developed higher BP. Participants with a baseline SBP level ≤92 mm Hg and White women with baseline BMI < 23 kg/m2 were the two segments of the population with the highest probability for maintaining normal BP throughout midlife (69.2% and 59.9%, respectively). Among Black participants aged >26.5 years with BMI > 27 kg/m2, only 5.4% of participants maintained normal BP throughout midlife. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the importance of early life factors to later life SBP and support efforts to maintain ideal levels of risk factors for hypertension at young ages. Whether policies to maintain lower BMI and SBP well below the clinical thresholds throughout young adulthood and middle age can reduce later age hypertension should be examined in future studies.

State of the Nation's Cardiovascular Health and Targeting Health Equity in the United States: A Narrative Review.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the US. The burden of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality disproportionately affects racial/ethnic minority groups, who now compose almost 40% of the US population in aggregate. As part of the 2010 American Heart Association (AHA) Strategic Impact Goal, the AHA established 7 cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics (also known as Life's Simple 7) with the goal to improve the CVH of all individuals in the US by 20% by 2020. National estimates of CVH are important to track and monitor at the population level but may mask important differences across and within racial/ethnic minority groups. It is critical to understand how CVH may differ between racial/ethnic minority groups and consider how these differences in CVH may contribute to disparities in cardiovascular disease burden and overall longevity. Observations: This narrative review summarizes the available literature on individual CVH metrics and composite CVH scores across different race/ethnic minority groups (specifically Hispanic/Latino, Asian, and non-Hispanic Black individuals) in the US. Disparities in CVH persist among racial/ethnic groups, but key gaps in knowledge exist, in part, owing to underrepresentation of these racial/ethnic groups in research or misrepresentation of CVH because of aggregation of race/ethnicity subgroups. A comprehensive, multilevel approach is needed to target health equity and should include (1) access to high-quality health care, (2) community-engaged approaches to adapt disruptive health care delivery innovations, (3) equitable economic investment in the social and built environment, and (4) increasing funding for research in racial/ethnic minority populations. Conclusions and Relevance: Significant differences in CVH exist within racial/ethnic groups. Given the rapid growth of diverse, minority populations in the US, focused investigation is needed to identify strategies to optimize CVH. Opportunities exist to address inequities in CVH and to successfully achieve both the interim (AHA 2024) and longer-term (AHA 2030) Impact Goals in the coming years.

Trends in heart failure-related cardiovascular mortality in rural versus urban United States counties, 2011-2018: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Adults in rural counties in the United States (US) experience higher rates broadly of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with adults in urban counties. Mortality rates specifically due to heart failure (HF) have increased since 2011, but estimates of heterogeneity at the county-level in HF-related mortality have not been produced. The objectives of this study were 1) to quantify nationwide trends by rural-urban designation and 2) examine county-level factors associated with rural-urban differences in HF-related mortality rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We queried CDC WONDER to identify HF deaths between 2011-2018 defined as CVD (I00-78) as the underlying cause of death and HF (I50) as a contributing cause of death. First, we calculated national age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and examined trends stratified by rural-urban status (defined using 2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme), age (35-64 and 65-84 years), and race-sex subgroups per year. Second, we combined all deaths from 2011-2018 and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) in HF-related mortality for rural versus urban counties using multivariable negative binomial regression models with adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, risk factor prevalence, and physician density. Between 2011-2018, 162,314 and 580,305 HF-related deaths occurred in rural and urban counties, respectively. AAMRs were consistently higher for residents in rural compared with urban counties (73.2 [95% CI: 72.2-74.2] vs. 57.2 [56.8-57.6] in 2018, respectively). The highest AAMR was observed in rural Black men (131.1 [123.3-138.9] in 2018) with greatest increases in HF-related mortality in those 35-64 years (+6.1%/year). The rural-urban IRR persisted among both younger (1.10 [1.04-1.16]) and older adults (1.04 [1.02-1.07]) after adjustment for county-level factors. Main limitations included lack of individual-level data and county dropout due to low event rates (<20). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in county-level factors may account for a significant amount of the observed variation in HF-related mortality between rural and urban counties. Efforts to reduce the rural-urban disparity in HF-related mortality rates will likely require diverse public health and clinical interventions targeting the underlying causes of this disparity.

Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

Hypertension is a highly prevalent and causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Quantitative cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is a new paradigm for stratifying hypertensive patients into actionable groups for clinical management and prevention of CVD. The large heterogeneity in hypertensive patients makes this evaluation complex, but recent advances have made CV risk assessment more feasible. In this review, we first describe the prognostic significance of various levels and temporal patterns of blood pressure (BP). We then discuss CV risk prediction equations and the rationale of taking global risk into account in hypertensive patients. Finally, we review several adjunctive biomarkers that may refine risk assessment in certain patients. We observe that, beyond individual cross-sectional measurements, both short-term and long-term BP patterns are associated with incident CVD; that current CV risk prediction performs well, and its incorporation into hypertension management is associated with potential population benefit; and that adjunctive biomarkers of target organ damage show the most promise in sequential screening strategies that target biomarker measurement to patients in whom the results are most likely to change clinical management. Implementation of quantitative risk assessment for CVD has been facilitated by tools and direct electronic health record integrations that make risk estimates accessible for counseling and shared decision making for CVD prevention. However, it should be noted that treatment does not return an individual to the risk of someone who never develops hypertension, underscoring the need for primordial prevention in addition to continued innovation in risk assessment.

Associations of Social Vulnerability Index With Pathologic Myocardial Findings at Autopsy.

Background: Social vulnerability is an important determinant of cardiovascular health. Prior investigations have shown strong associations of social determinants of health with cardiovascular risk factors, imaging findings, and clinical events. However, limited data exist regarding the potential role of social vulnerability and related physiologic stressors on tissue-level pathology. Methods: We analyzed clinical data and linked autopsy reports from 853 decedent individuals who underwent autopsy from 4/6/2002 to 4/1/2021 at a large urban medical center. The mean age at death was 62.9 (SD = 15.6) and 49% of decedent individuals were men. The primary exposure was census-tract level composite social vulnerability index based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Individuals were geocoded to census tracts and assigned SVI accordingly. Four myocardial tissue-level outcomes from autopsy were recorded as present or absent: any coronary atherosclerosis, severe/obstructive coronary atherosclerosis, myocardial fibrosis, and/or myopericardial inflammation. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were constructed with SVI as the primary exposure and covariates including age, sex, race, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and hypertension. Additional analyses were performed stratified by clinical diagnoses of heart failure (HF) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Results: In the overall cohort, SVI was not associated with outcomes on cardiac pathology in multivariable-adjusted models. However, in stratified multivariable-adjusted analyses, higher SVI (higher social vulnerability) was associated with a higher odds of myocardial fibrosis among individuals without clinical diagnoses of HF. Conclusions: Higher indices of social vulnerability are associated with a higher odds of myocardial fibrosis at autopsy among individuals without known clinical diagnoses of HF. Potential pathophysiological mechanisms and implications for prevention/treatment of myocardial dysfunction require further study.