Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation by Race and Socioeconomic Status: ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).

BACKGROUND: Limited information exists on the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in African Americans and by socioeconomic status. METHODS: We studied 15 343 participants without AF at baseline from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) cohort recruited in 1987 to 1989 from 4 communities in the United States when they were 45 to 64 years of age. Participants have been followed through 2014. Incidence rates of AF were calculated dividing the number of new cases by person-years of follow-up. Lifetime risk of AF was estimated by a modified Kaplan-Meier method considering death as a competing risk. Participants' family income and education were obtained at baseline. RESULTS: We identified 2760 AF cases during a mean follow-up of 21 years. Lifetime risk of AF was 36% (95% confidence interval, 32%-38%) in white men, 30% (95% confidence interval, 26%-32%) in white women, 21% (95% confidence interval, 13%-24%) in African American men, and 22% (95% confidence interval, 16%-25%) in African American women. Regardless of race and sex, incidence rates of AF decreased from the lowest to the highest categories of income and education. In contrast, lifetime risk of AF increased in individuals with higher income and education in most sex-race groups. Cumulative incidence of AF was lower in those with higher income and education compared with their low socioeconomic status counterparts through earlier life but was reversed after age 80. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime risk of AF in the ARIC cohort was ≈1 in 3 among whites and 1 in 5 among African Americans. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with cumulative incidence of AF before the last decades of life.

Trends in Hospitalizations and Survival of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure in Four US Communities (2005-2014): ARIC Study Community Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Community trends of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in diverse populations may differ by race and sex. METHODS: The ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) sampled heart failure-related hospitalizations (≥55 years of age) in 4 US communities from 2005 to 2014 using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. ADHF hospitalizations were validated by standardized physician review and computer algorithm, yielding 40 173 events after accounting for sampling design (unweighted n=8746). RESULTS: Of the ADHF hospitalizations, 50% had reduced ejection fraction, and 39% had preserved EF (HFpEF). HF with reduced ejection fraction was more common in black men and white men, whereas HFpEF was most common in white women. Average age-adjusted rates of ADHF were highest in blacks (38.1 per 1000 black men, 30.5 per 1000 black women), with rates differing by HF type and sex. ADHF rates increased over the 10 years (average annual percentage change: black women +4.3%, black men +3.7%, white women +1.9%, white men +2.6%), mostly reflecting more acute HFpEF. Age-adjusted 28-day and 1-year case fatality proportions were ≈10% and 30%, respectively, similar across race-sex groups and HF types. Only blacks showed decreased 1-year mortality over time (average annual percentage change: black women -5.4%, black men -4.6%), with rates differing by HF type (average annual percentage change: black women HFpEF -7.1%, black men HF with reduced ejection fraction -4.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2005 and 2014, trends in ADHF hospitalizations increased in 4 US communities, primarily driven by acute HFpEF. Survival at 1 year was poor regardless of EF but improved over time for black women and black men.

Community burden and prognostic impact of reduced kidney function among patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Community Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Kidney dysfunction is prevalent and impacts prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, most previous reports were from a single hospital, limiting their generalizability. Also, contemporary data using new equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are needed. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from the ARIC Community Surveillance for ADHF conducted for residents aged ≥55 years in four US communities between 2005-2011. All ADHF cases (n = 5, 391) were adjudicated and weighted to represent those communities (24,932 weighted cases). The association of kidney function (creatinine-based eGFR by the CKD-EPI equation and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) during hospitalization with 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression. Based on worst and last serum creatinine, there were 82.5% and 70.6% with reduced eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73m2) and 37.4% and 26.6% with severely reduced eGFR (<30 ml/min/1.73m2), respectively. Lower eGFR (regardless of last or worst eGFR), particularly eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73m2, was significantly associated with higher 1-year mortality independently of potential confounders (odds ratio 1.60 [95% CI 1.26-2.04] for last eGFR 15-29 ml/min/1.73m2 and 2.30 [1.76-3.00] for <15 compared to eGFR ≥60). The association was largely consistent across demographic subgroups. Of interest, when both eGFR and BUN were modeled together, only BUN remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Severely reduced eGFR (<30 ml/min/1.73m2) was observed in ~30% of ADHF cases and was an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in community. For prediction, BUN appeared to be superior to eGFR. These findings suggest the need of close attention to kidney dysfunction among ADHF patients.

Cardiovascular health and the modifiable burden of incident myocardial infarction: the Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association has proposed an impact goal for the year 2020 to improve cardiovascular health by 20%. The objectives of the study were to assess the association between the proposed cardiovascular health metric score and incident myocardial infarction (MI) and to estimate the generalized impact fraction (GIF). METHODS: The health metric score was derived from ideal levels of six cardiovascular risk factors from the population-based Tromsø Study of 22,121 residents of Tromsø, Norway aged 30 to 79 years, examined in 1994-95, 2001, and 2007-08. Incident events of MI were recorded from the date of enrollment in 1994-95 to the end of 2010. Adjudication of hospitalized and out-of hospital events was performed by an independent endpoints committee based on data from hospital and out-of hospital journals, autopsy records and death certificates. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR). GIF was calculated from age stratified analysis using a case-load weighted-sum method. Bootstrapping was used to estimate 95% simulation intervals. RESULTS: A total of 1652 MIs accrued over an average of 14.7 person-years of follow-up. Few men (0.96%) and women (3.6%) had ideal levels in all 6 metrics. 64.7% (men) and 55.7% (women) had ideal levels in 2 or 3 metrics. The age-adjusted HR per point increase in health score was 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.70) in men and 0.59 (0.54, 0.64) in women. A shift of 30% of subjects from low score levels ≤3 to scores ≥4 was estimated to prevent 13.7% (11.2, 16.2) of incident MI in men and 15.9% (12.1, 19.4) in women. CONCLUSIONS: The association between the health metric score and MI indicate that close to 15% of incident MIs could be prevented by attainable and realistic improvements in the health metrics.

Impact of atrial fibrillation on healthcare utilization in the community: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of hospitalization. Little is known about the impact of AF on utilization of noninpatient health care or about sex or race differences in AF-related utilization. We examined rates of inpatient and outpatient utilization by AF status in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants with incident AF enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare for at least 12 continuous months between 1991 and 2009 (n=932) were matched on age, sex, race and field center with up to 3 participants without AF (n=2729). Healthcare utilization was ascertained from Medicare claims and classified by primary International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision code. The average annual numbers of days hospitalized were 13.2 (95% CI 11.6 to 15.0) and 2.8 (95% CI 2.5 to 3.1) for those with and without AF, respectively. The corresponding numbers of annual outpatient claims were 53.3 (95% CI 50.5 to 56.3) and 22.9 (95% CI 22.1 to 23.8) for those with and without AF, respectively. Most utilization among AF patients was attributable to non-AF conditions. The adjusted rate ratio for annual days hospitalized for other cardiovascular disease-related reasons was 4.58 (95% CI: 3.41 to 6.16) for those with AF versus those without AF. The association between AF and healthcare utilization was similar among men and women and among white and black participants. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with AF had considerably greater healthcare utilization, and the difference in utilization for other cardiovascular disease-related reasons was substantial. In addition to rate or rhythm treatment, AF management should focus on the accompanying cardiovascular comorbidities.