ReducinG stroke by screening for UndiAgnosed atRial fibrillation in elderly inDividuals (GUARD-AF): Rationale and design of the GUARD-AF randomized trial of screening for atrial fibrillation with a 14-day patch-based continuous ECG monitor.

BACKGROUND: Screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is attractive because AF independently raises the risk of ischemic stroke, this risk is largely reversible by long-term oral anticoagulant therapy (OAC), and many patients with AF remain undiagnosed and untreated. Recent trials of one-time brief screening for AF have not produced a significant increase in the proportion of patients diagnosed with AF. Trials of longer-term screening have demonstrated an increase in AF diagnoses, primarily paroxysmal AF. To date, however, no trials have demonstrated that screening for AF results in lower rates of stroke. Clinical practice guidelines conflict in their level of support for screening for AF. METHODS: The GUARD-AF individually randomized trial is designed to test whether screening for AF in individuals age 70 years or greater using a 2-week single-lead electrocardiographic patch monitor can identify patients with undiagnosed AF and lead to treatment with OAC, resulting in a reduced rate of stroke in the screened population. The trial's efficacy end point is hospitalization for stroke (either ischemic or hemorrhagic) and the trial's safety end point is hospitalization for a bleeding event. End points will be ascertained via Medicare claims or electronic health records at 2.5 years after study start. Enrollment is based in primary care practices and the OAC decision for screen-detected cases is left to the patient and their physician. The initial planned target sample size was 52,000, with 26,000 allocated to either screening or to usual care. RESULTS: Trial enrollment was severely hampered by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and stopped at a total enrollment of 11,931 participants. Of 5,965 randomized to the screening arm, 5,713 patients (96%) returned monitors with analyzable results. Incidence of screen-detected and clinically detected AF and associated stroke and bleeding outcomes will be ascertained. CONCLUSIONS: GUARD-AF is the largest AF screening randomized trial using a longer-term patch-based continuous electrocardiographic monitor. The results will contribute important information on the yield of patch-based AF screening, the "burden" of AF detected (percent time in AF, longest episode), and physicians' OAC decisions as a function of AF burden. GUARD-AF's stroke and bleed results will contribute to pooled trial analyses of AF screening, thereby informing future studies and guidelines.

Atrial Fibrillation and Coronary Artery Disease: A Long-Term Perspective on the Need for Combined Antithrombotic Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) are often treated with the shortest possible duration of antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy after myocardial infarction (MI) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) due to concern for bleeding. However, the risk of recurrent MI or PCI prompting antiplatelet therapy extension is unknown in this population. METHODS: Using the National Cardiovascular Data Registry linked to Medicare claims, we described the cumulative incidence of recurrent MI or PCI over a median of 7-year follow-up for patients ≥65 years old with AF discharged alive after acute MI between 2008 and 2017. We used pharmacy fill data to describe the proportion of patients filling prescriptions for both oral anticoagulants and P2Y12 inhibitors for ≥50% of the indicated duration after MI or PCI. RESULTS: Of 187 622 older patients discharged alive after MI, 50 539 (26.9%) had AF. Over a median of 7-year follow-up in patients with AF, the cumulative incidence was 14.5% for recurrent MI, 12.1% for PCI, 7.9% for stroke, and 9.5% for bleeding hospitalization. Among 7998 patients with AF and recurrent MI or PCI, 1668 (20.9%) had >1 MI or PCI during follow-up. Assuming each MI or PCI should be followed by 6 months of P2Y12 inhibitor therapy, patients with AF who had a recurrent MI/PCI had a median estimated indication for antiplatelet/anticoagulant treatment of 287 days (194, 358), but filled both P2Y12 inhibitor and oral anticoagulant for a median of 0 days (0, 21). In this cohort, 12.2% of patients filled prescriptions for both a P2Y12 inhibitor and oral anticoagulant for ≥50% of the indicated duration. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with AF and MI have high incidences of downstream recurrent MI or PCI requiring extended antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy durations, yet many appear to be under-treated. These results highlight the need for better thrombosis prevention strategies in this group of patients.

Assessment of North American Clinical Research Site Performance During the Start-up of Large Cardiovascular Clinical Trials.

Importance: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are critical in advancing patient care, yet conducting such large-scale trials requires tremendous resources and coordination. Clinical site start-up performance metrics can provide insight into opportunities for improved trial efficiency but have not been well described. Objective: To measure the start-up time needed to reach prespecified milestones across sites in large cardiovascular RCTs in North America and to evaluate how these metrics vary by time and type of regulatory review process. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study evaluated cardiovascular RCTs conducted from July 13, 2004, to February 1, 2017. The RCTs were coordinated by a single academic research organization, the Duke Clinical Research Institute. Nine consecutive trials with completed enrollment and publication of results in their target journal were studied. Data were analyzed from December 4, 2019, to January 11, 2021. Exposures: Year of trial enrollment initiation (2004-2007 vs 2008-2012) and use of a central vs local institutional review board (IRB). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the median start-up time (from study protocol delivery to first participant enrollment) as compared by trial year and type of IRB used. The median start-up time for the top 10% of sites was also reported. Secondary outcomes included time to site regulatory approval, time to contract execution, and time to site activation. Results: For the 9 RCTs included, the median site start-up time shortened only slightly over time from 267 days (interquartile range [IQR], 185-358 days) for 2004-2007 trials to 237 days (IQR, 162-343 days) for 2008-2012 trials (overall median, 255 days [IQR, 177-350 days]; P < .001). For the top 10% of sites, median start-up time was 107 days (IQR, 95-121 days) for 2004-2007 trials vs 104 days (IQR, 84-118 days) for 2008-2012 trials (overall median, 106 days [IQR, 90-120 days]; P = .04). The median start-up time was shorter among sites using a central IRB (199 days [IQR, 140-292 days]) than those using a local IRB (287 days [IQR, 205-390 days]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of North American research sites in large cardiovascular RCTs found a duration of nearly 9 months from the time of study protocol delivery to the first participant enrollment; this metric was only slightly shortened during the study period but was reduced to less than 4 months for top-performing sites. These findings suggest that the use of central IRBs has the potential to improve RCT efficiency.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes Among Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients With Coronary Artery Disease and/or Peripheral Artery Disease.

To address literature gaps on treatment with real-world evidence, this study compared effectiveness, safety, and cost outcomes in NVAF patients with coronary or peripheral artery disease (CAD, PAD) prescribed apixaban versus other oral anticoagulants. NVAF patients aged ≥65 years co-diagnosed with CAD/PAD initiating warfarin, apixaban, dabigatran, or rivaroxaban were selected from the US Medicare population (January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2015). Propensity score matching was used to match apixaban versus warfarin, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban cohorts. Cox models were used to evaluate the risk of stroke/systemic embolism (SE), major bleeding (MB), all-cause mortality, and a composite of stroke/myocardial infarction/all-cause mortality. Generalized linear and two-part models were used to compare stroke/SE, MB, and all-cause costs between cohorts. A total of 33,269 warfarin-apixaban, 9,335 dabigatran-apixaban, and 33,633 rivaroxaban-apixaban pairs were identified after matching. Compared with apixaban, stroke/SE risk was higher in warfarin (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.61 to 2.31), dabigatran (HR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.43), and rivaroxaban (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.51) patients. MB risk was higher in warfarin (HR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.52 to 1.83), dabigatran (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.68), and rivaroxaban (HR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.71 to 2.05) patients vs apixaban. Stroke/SE- and MB-related medical costs per-patient per-month were higher in warfarin, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban patients versus apixaban. Total all-cause health care costs were higher in warfarin and rivaroxaban patients compared with apixaban patients. In conclusion, compared with apixaban, patients on dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin had a higher risk of stroke/SE, MB, and event-related costs.

Gaps in Evidence-Based Therapy Use in Insured Patients in the United States With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

Background Evidence-based therapies are generally underused for cardiovascular risk reduction; however, less is known about contemporary patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Methods and Results Pharmacy and medical claims data from within Anthem were queried for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Using an index date of April 18, 2018, we evaluated the proportion of patients with a prescription claim for any of the 3 evidence-based therapies on, or covering, the index date ±30 days: high-intensity statin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker, and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist. The potential benefit of achieving 100% adoption of all 3 evidence-based therapies was simulated using pooled treatment estimates from clinical trials. Of the 155 958 patients in the sample, 24.7% were using a high-intensity statin, 53.1% were using an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker, and 9.9% were using either an sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists. Overall, only 2.7% of the population were covered by prescriptions for all 3 evidence-based therapies, and 37.4% were on none of them. Over a 12-month period, 70.6% of patients saw a cardiologist, while only 18% saw an endocrinologist. Increasing the use of evidence-based therapies to 100% over 3 years of treatment could be expected to reduce 4546 major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) in eligible but untreated patients. Conclusions Alarming gaps exist in the contemporary use of evidence-based therapies in this large population of insured patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. These data provide a call to action for patients, providers, industry, regulators, professional societies, and payers to close these gaps in care.

Management of Atrial Fibrillation in Older Patients by Morbidity Burden: Insights From Get With The Guidelines-Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Knowledge is scarce regarding how multimorbidity is associated with therapeutic decisions regarding oral anticoagulants (OACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods and Results We conducted a cross-sectional study of hospitalized patients with atrial fibrillation using the Get With The Guidelines-Atrial Fibrillation registry from 2013 to 2019. We identified patients ≥65 years and eligible for OAC therapy. Using 16 available comorbidity categories, patients were stratified by morbidity burden. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine the odds of receiving OAC prescription at discharge by morbidity burden. We included 34 174 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 76 (71-83) years, 56.6% women, and 41.9% were not anticoagulated at admission. Of these patients, 38.6% had 0 to 2 comorbidities, 50.7% had 3 to 5 comorbidities, and 10.7% had ≥6 comorbidities. The overall discharge OAC prescription was high (85.6%). The prevalence of patients with multimorbidity increased from 59.7% in 2014 to 64.3% in 2019 (P trend=0.002). Using 0 to 2 comorbidities as the reference, the adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of OAC prescription were 0.93 (0.82, 1.05) for patients with 3 to 5 comorbidities and 0.72 (0.60, 0.86) for patients with ≥6 comorbidities. In those with ≥6 comorbidities, the most common reason for nonprescription of OACs were frequent falls/frailty (31.0%). Conclusions In a contemporary quality-of-care database of hospitalized patients with atrial fibrillation eligible for OAC therapy, multimorbidity was common. A higher morbidity burden was associated with a lower odds of OAC prescription. This highlights the need for interventions to improve adherence to guideline-recommended anticoagulation in multimorbid patients with atrial fibrillation.

A review of global health technology assessments of non-VKA oral anticoagulants in non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: This review assessed global health technology assessment (HTA) reports and recommendations of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). METHODS: NHTA agency websites were searched for HTA reports evaluating NOACs versus NOACs or vitamin K antagonists. HTA methods and information on patient involvement/access were collected and empirically analyzed. RESULTS: The review identified 38 unique HTA reports published between 2012 and 2017 in 16 countries including 11 in Europe. NOACs that were cost-effective per local willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds were positively recommended for the treatment of NVAF. WTP thresholds ranged from €20,000 to 69,000. Apixaban was recommended in 10/12 (83%) countries, dabigatran in 9/13 (69%) countries, and rivaroxaban in 10/13 (76%) over warfarin. Edoxaban was recommended in 5/7 (71%) countries. Economic evaluations and recommendations comparing NOACs were sparse (two or three countries per NOAC) and generally favored apixaban and edoxaban, followed by dabigatran. Eleven HTA reports from four countries considered the patient voice (Canada [n = 3], Scotland [n = 3], England [n = 4], Brazil [n = 1]); however, only 2/11 (18%) developed recommendations based on this. Among the reports with a positive recommendation, 26/30 (87%) featured a decision that aligned with the approved regulatory label. CONCLUSIONS: Most agencies recommended NOACs over warfarin for patients with NVAF. Few countries made statements recommending one NOAC over another. Given different WTP thresholds, a drug that is cost-effective in one market may not be in another. Therefore, the various NOAC recommendations from HTA agencies cannot be generalized across different countries.

The atrial FibriLlatiOn real World management registry in the Middle East and Africa: design and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affecting 33.5 million patients globally. It is associated with increased morbidity, leading to significant clinical and economic burden. There exist only limited data in the Middle Eastern region from the existing registries. The goal of the FLOW-AF (atrial FibriLlatiOn real World management registry in the Middle East and Africa) registry is to evaluate the characteristics, treatment patterns, and clinical and economic outcomes associated with anticoagulation among patients newly diagnosed with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in Egypt, Lebanon, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. METHODS: This study will be a multicountry, multicenter, prospective observational registry aiming to enroll 1446 newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients at more than 20 sites across the four countries. During the recruitment period, patients will be included if they were newly diagnosed with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and had initiated treatment for the prevention of stroke/systemic embolism. Patient data will be assessed prospectively at 6 and 12 months from their enrollment date. Demographics, clinical characteristics, antithrombotic treatments received, clinical outcomes, adverse events, healthcare resource utilization, and direct costs associated with management of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation will be collected and analyzed overall, by country, and by groups created based on treatment, demographics, and clinical characteristics, medical history and risk factors. CONCLUSION: The FLOW-AF registry will provide information on the uptake of oral anticoagulants, treatment patterns, clinical outcomes, and healthcare utilization and costs among newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients in the Middle Eastern region.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alirocumab in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes: The ODYSSEY OUTCOMES Trial.

BACKGROUND: Cholesterol reduction with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors reduces ischemic events; however, the cost-effectiveness in statin-treated patients with recent acute coronary syndrome remains uncertain. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether further cholesterol reduction with alirocumab would be cost-effective in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model leveraging patient-level data from ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was developed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Patients (n = 18,924) had a recent acute coronary syndrome and were on high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statin therapy, with a baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level ≥70 mg/dl, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dl, or apolipoprotein B ≥80 mg/l. Alirocumab 75 mg or placebo was administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Alirocumab was blindly titrated to 150 mg if LDL-C remained ≥50 mg/dl or switched to placebo if 2 consecutive LDL-C levels were <15 mg/dl. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was determined with the addition of alirocumab versus placebo and, based on clinical efficacy findings from the trial, was stratified by baseline LDL-C levels ≥100 mg/dl and <100 mg/dl. RESULTS: Across the overall population recruited to the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial, using an annual treatment cost of US$5,850, the mean overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$92,200 per QALY (base case). The cost was US$41,800 per QALY in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, whereas in those with LDL-C <100 mg/dl the cost per QALY was US$299,400. Among patients with LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below US$100,000 per QALY across a wide variety of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy, alirocumab improves cardiovascular outcomes at costs considered intermediate value, with good value in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl but less economic value with LDL-C <100 mg/dl. (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402).

Levosimendan in patients with reduced left ventricular function undergoing isolated coronary or valve surgery.

OBJECTIVE: In the Levosimendan in Patients with Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction Undergoing Cardiac Surgery Requiring Cardiopulmonary Bypass (LEVO-CTS) trial, no differences in clinical outcomes were observed between levosimendan and placebo in a broad population of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. In previous studies, the benefits of levosimendan were most clearly evident in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. In a prespecified analysis of LEVO-CTS, we compared treatment-related outcomes and costs across types of cardiac surgical procedures. METHODS: Overall, 563 (66.4%) patients underwent isolated CABG, 97 (11.4%) isolated valve, and 188 (22.2%) combined CABG/valve surgery. Outcomes included the co-primary 4-component composite (30-day mortality, 30-day renal replacement, 5-day myocardial infarction, or 5-day mechanical circulatory support), the 2-component composite (30-day mortality or 5-day mechanical circulatory support), 90-day mortality, low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS), and 30-day medical costs. RESULTS: The 4- and 2-component outcomes were not significantly different with levosimendan and placebo in patients undergoing CABG (15.2% vs 19.3% and 7.8% vs 10.4%), valve (49.0% vs 33.3% and 22.4% vs 2.1%), or combined procedures (39.6% vs 35.9% and 24.0% vs 19.6%). Ninety-day mortality was lower with levosimendan in isolated CABG (2.1% vs 7.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.64), but not significantly different in valve (8.3% vs 2.0%; HR, 4.10; 95% CI, 0.46-36.72) or combined procedures (10.4% vs 7.6%; HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 0.53-3.64; interaction P = .011). LCOS (12.0% vs 22.1%; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30-0.76; interaction P = .118) was significantly lower in levosimendan-treated patients undergoing isolated CABG. Excluding study drug costs, median and mean 30-day costs were $53,707 and $65,852 for levosimendan and $54,636 and $67,122 for placebo, with a 30-day mean difference (levosimendan - placebo) of -$1270 (bootstrap 95% CI, -$8722 to $6165). CONCLUSIONS: Levosimendan was associated with lower 90-day mortality and LCOS in patients undergoing isolated CABG, but not in those undergoing isolated valve or combined CABG/valve procedures.

Effects of apixaban compared with warfarin as gain in event-free time - a novel assessment of the results of the ARISTOTLE trial.

BACKGROUND: A novel approach to determine the effect of a treatment is to calculate the delay of event, which estimates the gain of event-free time. The aim of this study was to estimate gains in event-free time for stroke or systemic embolism, death, bleeding events, and the composite of these events, in patients with atrial fibrillation randomized to either warfarin or apixaban in the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation trial (ARISTOTLE). DESIGN: The ARISTOTLE study was a randomized double-blind trial comparing apixaban with warfarin. METHODS: Laplace regression was used to estimate the delay in time to the outcomes between the apixaban and the warfarin group in 6, 12, 18 and 22 months of follow-up. RESULTS: The gain in event-free time for apixaban versus warfarin was 181 (95% confidence interval 76 to 287) days for stroke or systemic embolism and 55 (-4 to 114) days for death after 22 months of follow-up. The corresponding gains in event-free times for major and intracranial bleeding were 206 (130 to 281) and 392 (249 to 535) days, respectively. The overall gain for the composite of all these events was a gain of 116 (60 to 171) days. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation, 22 months of treatment with apixaban, as compared with warfarin, provided gains of approximately 6 months in event-free time for stroke or systemic embolism, 7 months for major bleeding and 13 months for intracranial bleeding.

Claims-based cardiovascular outcome identification for clinical research: Results from 7 large randomized cardiovascular clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Medicare insurance claims may provide an efficient means to ascertain follow-up of older participants in clinical research. We sought to determine the accuracy and completeness of claims- versus site-based follow-up with clinical event committee (+CEC) adjudication of cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using linked Medicare and Duke Database of Clinical Trials data. Medicare claims were linked to clinical data from 7 randomized cardiovascular clinical trials. Of 52,476 trial participants, linking resulted in 5,839 (of 10,497 linkage-eligible) Medicare-linked trial participants with fee-for-service A and B coverage. Death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and revascularization incidences were compared using Medicare inpatient claims only, site-reported events (+CEC) only, or a combination of the 2. Randomized treatment effects were compared as a function of whether claims-based, site-based (+CEC), or a combined system was used for event detection. RESULTS: Among the 5,839 study participants, the annual event rates were similar between claims- and site-based (+CEC) follow-up: death (overall rate 5.2% vs 5.2%; adjusted κ 0.99), MI (2.2% vs 2.3%; adjusted κ 0.96), stroke (0.7% vs 0.7%; adjusted κ 0.99), and any revascularization (7.4% vs 7.9%; adjusted κ 0.95). Of events detected by claims yet not reported by CEC, a minority were reported by sites but negatively adjudicated by CEC (39% of MIs and 18% of strokes). Differences in individual case concordance led to higher event rates when claims- and site-based (+CEC) systems were combined. Randomized treatment effects were similar among the 3 approaches for each outcome of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Claims- versus site-based (+CEC) follow-up identified similar overall cardiovascular event rates despite meaningful differences in the events detected. Randomized treatment effects were similar using the 2 methods, suggesting claims data could be used to support clinical research leveraging routinely collected data. This approach may lead to more effective evidence generation, synthesis, and appraisal of medical products and inform the strategic approaches toward the National Evaluation System for Health Technology.

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation and stroke risk assessment based on telemedicine screening tools in a primary healthcare setting.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence varies between 0.1% and 4.0%, and has been increasing. Little is known about the prevalence of AF in Brazil. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of AF in several regions of Brazil using recordings of long-distance electrocardiogram (ECG) transmission. METHODS: Patients from 125 outpatient general practitioner units covered by the telemedicine service of the Federal University of São Paulo were included. Only one ECG was considered per patient. A scripted telephone interview was also performed. We analyzed the data to project the prevalence of AF in the Brazilian population and estimate it for the year 2025. The overall AF prevalence was calculated based on ECGs from primary care units where patients went for routine visits. RESULTS: Based on 676,621 ECG exams from January 2009 through April 2016, the mean age (±SD) of patients was 51.38 (±19.05) years, with 57.5% being female. The 7-year period prevalence of AF was 2.2% (n = 14,968). The prevalence of AF countrywide was projected to be 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2025. In the subset of patients with AF who were interviewed (n = 301), 91 (30.2%) were not receiving any type of treatment for rate or rhythm control. Among patients interviewed, 189 (62.8%) were at high risk for stroke; only 28 (14.8%) were regular oral anticoagulant users. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the importance of screening for AF in the primary care setting in Brazil and identifies important gaps in the treatment of AF in this population.

Incidence, Management, and Associated Clinical Outcomes of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: An Analysis From the STS/ACC TVT Registry.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate incidence, care patterns, and clinical outcomes in patients developing new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). BACKGROUND: Pre-procedural AF has been associated with adverse outcomes in patients undergoing TAVR, but the incidence of new-onset AF, associated anticoagulant management, and subsequent clinical outcomes are unclear. METHODS: Using the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry linked with Medicare claims, patients undergoing TAVR from 2011 to 2015 who developed post-procedural AF were evaluated. Patients with known AF prior to TAVR were excluded. Outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality and stroke and all-cause mortality, stroke, and bleeding at 12 months. Multivariate adjustment was then performed to determine differences in 1-year outcomes among those with and without new post-procedural AF, stratified by anticoagulation status. RESULTS: We identified 1,138 of 13,556 patients (8.4%) who developed new onset AF (4.4% of transfemoral [TF]-access patients, 16.5% of non-TF-access patients). Patients developing AF were older, more likely female, had higher Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores, and were often treated using non-TF access. Despite having a median CHA2DS2-VASc score of 5 (25th and 75th percentile: 5 to 6), only 28.9% of patients with new AF were discharged on oral anticoagulation. In-hospital mortality (7.8% vs. 3.4%; p < 0.01) and stroke (4.7% vs. 2.0%; p < 0.01) were higher among patients who developed post-procedural AF compared with those who did not. At 1 year, rates of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19 to 1.59), stroke (adjusted HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.98), and bleeding (adjusted HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.40) were higher among patients with new-onset AF. One-year mortality rates were highest among patients who developed new-onset AF but were not discharged on anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: Post-TAVR AF occurred in 8.4% of patients (4.4% with TF access, 16.5% with non-TF access), with fewer than one-third of patients receiving anticoagulation at discharge, and was associated with increased risk for in-hospital and 1-year mortality and stroke. Given the clinical significance of post-TAVR AF, additional studies are necessary to delineate the optimal management strategy in this high-risk population.

The high cost of critical care unit over-utilization for patients with NSTE ACS.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial variability among hospitals in critical care unit (CCU) utilization for patients admitted with non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes (NSTE ACS). We estimated the potential cost saving if all hospitals adopted low CCU utilization practices for patients with NSTE ACS. METHODS: National hospital claims data were used to identify all patients with a primary diagnosis of NSTE ACS initially admitted to an acute care hospital between 2007 and 2013. Hospital CCU utilization was classified as low (<30%), medium (30-70%), or high (>70%). RESULTS: Among the 270,564 NSTE ACS hospitalizations (71.6% non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction; 28.4% unstable angina) admitted to 261 hospitals, 41.9% (inter-hospital range 0.3%-95.1%) were admitted to a CCU. The proportion of patients admitted to a CCU in low, medium and high utilization hospitals was 16.3%, 49.5%, and high 81.1%, respectively. No differences in adjusted inpatient mortality were observed by hospital CCU utilization. The overall inpatient costs of caring for NSTE ACS were $1.1 billion. CCU care accounted for 45.2% of all hospitalization costs including 22.6%, 49.9%, and 69.0% (P < .001) of costs in low, medium and high utilization centers. The national potential direct cost savings of medium and high CCU utilization centers adopting low NSTE ACS CCU utilization practices was $113.4 million over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based contemporary cohort, CCU utilization for patients with NSTE ACS varied widely and in-hospital mortality was similar between low, medium and high utilization centers. CCU care accounted for 45% of hospitalization costs; thus, implementing policies and admission practices to align hospital resources with patient care needs have the potential to reduce overall health care costs.

Usefulness and Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Echocardiographic Contrast to Detect Left Ventricular Thrombus in Patients with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Contrast is a recommended but frequently unused tool in transthoracic echocardiography to improve detection of left ventricular thrombus in patients with ejection fraction (EF) ≤35%. The clinical and economic outcomes of a possible solution (i.e., universal contrast use) remain uncertain. To estimate clinical benefit, cost, and cost-effectiveness of a diagnostic strategy of universal use of contrast (vs no contrast) during echocardiography in patients with reduced EF, we created a decision analytic model using echocardiography sensitivity and specificity for left ventricular thrombus detection from a meta-analysis, as well as survival and cost estimates from published literature. Universal contrast use (vs nonuse) did not result in clinical or statistical improvement in estimated life years (8.509 vs 8.504) or quality-adjusted life years (5.620 vs 5.616). The cost of contrast was offset by reductions in subsequent health-care costs, resulting in similar total costs ($201,569 vs $201,573). In conclusion, although an intuitively attractive practice improvement strategy, universal contrast use strategy appears to offer no appreciable benefit to quality-adjusted survival or financial outcomes in patients with low EF.

Effectiveness and Safety of Anticoagulants in Adults with Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation and Concomitant Coronary/Peripheral Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are at least non-inferior to warfarin in efficacy and safety among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Limited evidence is available regarding outcomes for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with coronary/peripheral artery disease. METHODS: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients aged ≥65 years diagnosed with coronary/peripheral artery disease in the US Medicare population, newly initiating DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran) or warfarin were selected from January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2015. Propensity score matching was used to compare DOACs vs warfarin. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, and composite of stroke/myocardial infarction/all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 15,527 apixaban-warfarin, 6,962 dabigatran-warfarin, and 25,903 rivaroxaban-warfarin-matched pairs, with a mean follow-up of 5-6 months. Compared with warfarin, apixaban was associated with lower rates of stroke/systemic embolism (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37-0.62), major bleeding (HR 0.66; 95% CI, 0.58-0.75), and stroke/myocardial infarction/all-cause mortality (HR 0.63; 95% CI, 0.58-0.69); dabigatran and rivaroxaban were associated with lower rates of stroke/myocardial infarction/all-cause mortality (HR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90 and HR 0.87; 95% CI, 0.81-0.92, respectively). Rivaroxaban was associated with a lower rate of stroke/systemic embolism (HR 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.89) and a higher rate of major bleeding (HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.23) vs warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: All DOACs were associated with lower stroke/myocardial infarction/all-cause mortality rates compared with warfarin; differences were observed in rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. Findings from this observational analysis provide important insights about oral anticoagulation therapy among non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with coronary/peripheral artery disease and may help physicians in the decision-making process when treating this high-risk group of patients.

Economic Analysis of Apixaban Therapy for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation From a US Perspective: Results From the ARISTOTLE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial reported that apixaban therapy was superior to warfarin therapy in preventing stroke and all-cause death while causing significantly fewer major bleeds. To establish the value proposition of substituting apixiban therapy for warfarin therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using patient-level data from the ARISTOTLE trial. Objective: To assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of apixaban therapy compared with warfarin therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation from the perspective of the US health care system. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic analysis uses patient-level resource use and clinical data collected in the ARISTOTLE trial, a multinational randomized clinical trial that observed 18 201 patients (3417 US patients) for a median of 1.8 years between 2006 and 2011. Interventions: Apixaban therapy vs warfarin therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Within-trial resource use and cost were compared between treatments, using externally derived US cost weights. Life expectancies for US patients were estimated according to their baseline risk and treatment using time-based and age-based survival models developed using the overall ARISTOTLE population. Quality-of-life adjustment factors were obtained from external sources. Cost-effectiveness (incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained) was evaluated from a US perspective, and extensive sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Of the 3417 US patients enrolled in ARISTOTLE, the mean (SD) age was 71 (10) years; 2329 (68.2%) were male and 3264 (95.5%) were white. After 2 years of anticoagulation therapy, health care costs (excluding the study drug) of patients treated with apixaban therapy and warfarin therapy were not statistically different (difference, -$60; 95% CI, -$2728 to $2608). Life expectancy, modeled from ARISTOTLE outcomes, was significantly longer with apixaban therapy vs warfarin therapy (7.94 vs 7.54 quality-adjusted life years). The incremental cost, including cost of anticoagulant and monitoring, of achieving these benefits was within accepted US norms ($53 925 per quality-adjusted life year, with 98% likelihood of meeting a $100 000 willingness-to-pay threshold). Results were generally consistent when model assumptions were varied, with lifetime cost-effectiveness most affected by the price of apixaban and the time horizon. Conclusions and Relevance: Apixaban therapy for ARISTOTLE-eligible patients with atrial fibrillation provides clinical benefits at an incremental cost that represents reasonable value for money judged using US benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00412984.

A time-series analysis of the relation between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction and stroke in Brazil over more than a decade.

BACKGROUND: The effect of socioeconomic stressors on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently open to debate. Using time-series analysis, our study aimed to evaluate the relationship between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Brazil over a recent 11-year span. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on monthly hospital admissions for AMI and stroke from March 2002 to December 2013 were extracted from the Brazilian Public Health System Database. The monthly unemployment rate was obtained from the Brazilian Institute for Applied Economic Research, during the same period. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to test the association of temporal series. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. From March 2002 to December 2013, 778,263 admissions for AMI and 1,581,675 for stroke were recorded. During this time period, the unemployment rate decreased from 12.9% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2013, while admissions due to AMI and stroke increased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between the unemployment rate and admissions for AMI but not for stroke (estimate coefficient=2.81±0.93; p=0.003 and estimate coefficient=2.40±4.34; p=0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: From 2002 to 2013, hospital admissions for AMI and stroke increased, whereas the unemployment rate decreased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between unemployment rate and admissions due to AMI but not for stroke. Further studies are warranted to validate our findings and to better explore the mechanisms by which socioeconomic stressors, such as unemployment, might impact on the incidence of CVD.