Global diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates and models in children: Recommendations for dataset and study selection.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors contribute to variation in disease burden, including the type and quality of data, and inherent properties of the models used. Understanding how these factors affect mortality estimates is crucial, especially in the context of public health decision making. We examine how the quality of the studies selected to provide mortality data, influence estimates of burden and provide recommendations about the inclusion of studies and datasets to calculate mortality estimates. METHODS: To determine how mortality estimates are affected by the data used to generate model outputs, we compared the studies used by The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) modelling groups to generate enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella-associated mortality estimates for 2016. Guided by an expert WHO Working Group, we applied a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of studies used by both modelling groups. RESULTS: IHME and MCEE used different sets of ETEC and Shigella studies in their models and the majority of studies were high quality. The distribution of the NOS scores was similar between the two modelling groups. We observed an overrepresentation of studies from some countries in SEAR, AFR and WPR compared to other WHO regions. CONCLUSION: We identified key differences in study inclusion and exclusion criteria used by IHME and MCEE and discuss their impact on datasets used to generate diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates. Based on these observations, we provide a set of recommendations for future estimates of mortality associated with enteric diseases.

Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings.

OBJECTIVE: Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature. RESULTS: A 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Due to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines.

Effect of propensity of seeking medical care on the bias of the estimated effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines from studies using a test-negative case-control design.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea among children worldwide, and vaccines can reduce morbidity and mortality by 50-98%. The test-negative control (TNC) study design is increasingly used for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines against rotavirus and other vaccine-preventable diseases. In this study design, symptomatic patients who seek medical care are tested for the pathogen of interest. Those who test positive (negative) are classified as cases (controls). METHODS: We use a probability model to evaluate the bias of estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) against rotavirus diarrhea resulting in hospitalization in the presence of possible confounding and selection biases due to differences in the propensity of seeking medical care (PSMC) between vaccinated and unvaccinated children. RESULTS: The TNC-based VE estimate corrects for confounding bias when the confounder's effects on the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalizations are equal. If this condition is not met, then the estimated VE may be substantially biased. The bias is more severe in low-income countries, where VE is known to be lower. Under our model, differences in PSMC between vaccinated and unvaccinated children do not result in selection bias when the TNC study design is used. CONCLUSIONS: In practice, one can expect the association of PSMC (or other potential confounders) with the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalization to be similar, in which case the confounding effects will only result in small bias in the VE estimate from TNC studies. The results of this work, along with those of our previous paper, confirm the TNC design can be expected to provide reliable estimates of rotavirus VE in both high- and low-income countries.

Birth Cohort Studies Assessing Norovirus Infection and Immunity in Young Children: A Review.

Globally, noroviruses are among the foremost causes of acute diarrheal disease, yet there are many unanswered questions on norovirus immunity, particularly following natural infection in young children during the first 2 years of life when the disease burden is highest. We conducted a literature review on birth cohort studies assessing norovirus infections in children from birth to early childhood. Data on infection, immunity, and risk factors are summarized from 10 community-based birth cohort studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Up to 90% of children experienced atleast one norovirus infection and up to 70% experienced norovirus-associated diarrhea, most often affecting children 6 months of age and older. Data from these studies help to fill critical knowledge gaps for vaccine development, yet study design and methodological differences limit comparison between studies, particularly for immunity and risk factors for disease. Considerations for conducting future birth cohort studies on norovirus are discussed.

Burden of Severe Norovirus Disease in Taiwan, 2003-2013.

Background: Despite the increasingly recognized role of norovirus in global acute gastroenteritis (AGE), specific estimates of the associated disease burden remain sparse, primarily due to limited availability of sensitive norovirus diagnostics in the clinical setting. We sought to estimate the incidence of norovirus-associated hospitalizations by age group in Taiwan using a previously developed indirect regression method. Methods: AGE-related hospitalizations in Taiwan were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes abstracted from a national database; population data were provided from the Department of Household Registration Affairs. Population and hospitalizations were aggregated by month and year (July 2003-June 2013) and grouped by age: <5 years, 5-19 years, 20-64 years, and ≥65 years. Monthly counts of cause-unspecified AGE hospitalizations were modeled as a function of counts of known causes, and the residuals were then analyzed to estimate norovirus-associated hospitalizations. Results: Over the study period, an annual mean of 101400 gastroenteritis-associated hospitalizations occurred in Taiwan (44 per 10000 person-years), most of which (83%) had no specified cause. The overall estimated rate of norovirus-associated hospitalizations was 6.7 per 10000 person-years, with the highest rates in children aged <5 years (63.7/10000 person-years). Predicted norovirus peaked in 2006-2007 and 2012-2013. Conclusions: Our study is one of the first to generate a population-based estimate of severe norovirus disease incidence in Asia, and highlights the large burden of norovirus in Taiwan, particularly in children. Predicted peak norovirus seasons coincided with the emergence of new strains and resulting pandemics, supporting the validity of the estimates.

Global Economic Burden of Norovirus Gastroenteritis.

BACKGROUND: Despite accounting for approximately one fifth of all acute gastroenteritis illnesses, norovirus has received comparatively less attention than other infectious pathogens. With several candidate vaccines under development, characterizing the global economic burden of norovirus could help funders, policy makers, public health officials, and product developers determine how much attention and resources to allocate to advancing these technologies to prevent and control norovirus. METHODS: We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic burden of norovirus in every country/area (233 total) stratified by WHO region and globally, from the health system and societal perspectives. We considered direct costs of illness (e.g., clinic visits and hospitalization) and productivity losses. RESULTS: Globally, norovirus resulted in a total of $4.2 billion (95% UI: $3.2-5.7 billion) in direct health system costs and $60.3 billion (95% UI: $44.4-83.4 billion) in societal costs per year. Disease amongst children <5 years cost society $39.8 billion, compared to $20.4 billion for all other age groups combined. Costs per norovirus illness varied by both region and age and was highest among adults ≥55 years. Productivity losses represented 84-99% of total costs varying by region. While low and middle income countries and high income countries had similar disease incidence (10,148 vs. 9,935 illness per 100,000 persons), high income countries generated 62% of global health system costs. In sensitivity analysis, the probability of hospitalization had the largest impact on health system cost estimates ($2.8 billion globally, assuming no hospitalization costs), while the probability of missing productive days had the largest impact on societal cost estimates ($35.9 billion globally, with a 25% probability of missing productive days). CONCLUSIONS: The total economic burden is greatest in young children but the highest cost per illness is among older age groups in some regions. These large costs overwhelmingly are from productivity losses resulting from acute illness. Low, middle, and high income countries all have a considerable economic burden, suggesting that norovirus gastroenteritis is a truly global economic problem. Our findings can help identify which age group(s) and/or geographic regions may benefit the most from interventions.

Use of Patients With Diarrhea Who Test Negative for Rotavirus as Controls to Estimate Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness Through Case-Control Studies.

BACKGROUND: Case-control studies are often performed to estimate postlicensure vaccine effectiveness (VE), but the enrollment of controls can be challenging, time-consuming, and costly. We evaluated whether children enrolled in the same hospital-based diarrheal surveillance used to identify rotavirus cases but who test negative for rotavirus (test-negative controls) can be considered a suitable alternative to nondiarrheal hospital or community-based control groups (traditional controls). METHODS: We compared calculated VE estimates as a function of varying values of true VE, attack rates of rotavirus and nonrotavirus diarrhea in the population, and sensitivity and specificity of the rotavirus enzyme immunoasssay. We also searched the literature to identify rotavirus VE studies that used traditional and test-negative control groups and compared VE estimates obtained using the different control groups. RESULTS: Assuming a 1% attack rate for severe rotavirus diarrhea, a 3% attack rate for severe nonrotavirus diarrhea in the population, a test sensitivity of 96%, and a specificity of 100%, the calculated VE estimates using both the traditional and test-negative control groups closely approximated the true VE for all values from 30% to 100%. As true VE decreased, the traditional case-control approach slightly overestimated the true VE and the test-negative case-control approach slightly underestimated this estimate, but the absolute difference was only ±0.2 percentage points. Field VE estimates from 10 evaluations that used both traditional and test-negative control groups were similar regardless of control group used. CONCLUSIONS: The use of rotavirus test-negative controls offers an efficient and cost-effective approach to estimating rotavirus VE through case-control studies.

Norovirus in 2016-Emesis Aplenty but Clear Signs of Progress.

The key theme emerging from the articles in this supplement is that burden of norovirus in the United Kingdom and elsewhere is substantial and that new tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment are required. Basic understanding of norovirus biology continues to accelerate, but parallel increases in capacity and research funding are going to be needed to translate this knowledge into clinical trials and translational research that can result in public health gains.

Burden of norovirus gastroenteritis in the ambulatory setting--United States, 2001-2009.

BACKGROUND: Gastroenteritis remains an important cause of morbidity in the United States. The burden of norovirus gastroenteritis in ambulatory US patients is not well understood. METHODS: Cause-specified and cause-unspecified gastroenteritis emergency department (ED) and outpatient visits during July 2001-June 2009 were extracted from MarketScan insurance claim databases. By using cause-specified encounters, time-series regression models were fitted to predict the number of unspecified gastroenteritis visits due to specific pathogens other than norovirus. Model residuals were used to estimate norovirus visits. MarketScan rates were extrapolated to the US population to estimate national ambulatory visits. RESULTS: During 2001-2009, the estimated annual mean rates of norovirus-associated ED and outpatient visits were 14 and 57 cases per 10 000 persons, respectively, across all ages. Rates for ages 0-4, 5-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years were 38, 10, 12, and 15 ED visits per 10 000 persons, respectively, and 233, 85, 35, and 54 outpatient visits per 10 000 persons, respectively. Norovirus was estimated to cause 13% of all gastroenteritis-associated ambulatory visits, with ~50% of such visits occurring during November-February. Nationally, norovirus contributed to approximately 400 000 ED visits and 1.7 million office visits annually, resulting in $284 million in healthcare charges. CONCLUSIONS: Norovirus is a substantial cause of gastroenteritis in the ambulatory setting.

The potential economic value of a human norovirus vaccine for the United States.

Vaccines against human norovirus are currently under development. We developed a simulation model to determine their potential economic value. Vaccination prevented 100-6125 norovirus gastroenteritis cases per 10,000 vaccinees. Low vaccine cost (≤$50) garnered cost-savings and a more expensive vaccine led to costs per case averted comparable to other vaccines. In the US, vaccination could avert approximately 1.0-2.2 million cases (efficacy 50%, 12 month duration), costing an additional $400 million to $1.0 billion, but could save ≤$2.1 billion (48 month duration). Human norovirus vaccination can offer economic value while averting clinical outcomes, depending on price, efficacy, and protection duration.

Understanding reduced rotavirus vaccine efficacy in low socio-economic settings.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus vaccine efficacy ranges from >90% in high socio-economic settings (SES) to 50% in low SES. With the imminent introduction of rotavirus vaccine in low SES countries, understanding reasons for reduced efficacy in these settings could identify strategies to improve vaccine performance. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model to predict rotavirus vaccine efficacy in high, middle and low SES based on data specific for each setting on incidence, protection conferred by natural infection and immune response to vaccination. We then examined factors affecting efficacy. RESULTS: Vaccination was predicted to prevent 93%, 86% and 51% of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in high, middle and low SES, respectively. Also predicted was that vaccines are most effective against severe disease and efficacy declines with age in low but not high SES. Reduced immunogenicity of vaccination and reduced protection conferred by natural infection are the main factors that compromise efficacy in low SES. DISCUSSION: The continued risk of severe disease in non-primary natural infections in low SES is a key factor underpinning reduced efficacy of rotavirus vaccines. Predicted efficacy was remarkably consistent with observed clinical trial results from different SES, validating the model. The phenomenon of reduced vaccine efficacy can be predicted by intrinsic immunological and epidemiological factors of low SES populations. Modifying aspects of the vaccine (e.g. improving immunogenicity in low SES) and vaccination program (e.g. additional doses) may bring improvements.

Remaining issues and challenges for rotavirus vaccine in preventing global childhood diarrheal morbidity and mortality.

Rotavirus vaccines have had a dramatic impact on morbidity and mortality from diarrhea among children in high- and middle-income countries that have introduced the vaccine into their national immunization programs. Widespread introduction of rotavirus vaccine in developing countries is imminent and their full potential in reducing the global burden from severe childhood diarrhea may soon be realized. The objectives of this paper are to describe the remaining issues and challenges in ensuring the success of the global rotavirus vaccination program and to discuss further research needed to help address them.