Strategic options for syphilis control in Papua New Guinea- impact and cost-effectiveness projections using the syphilis interventions towards elimination (SITE) model.

OBJECTIVES: Papua New Guinea (PNG) has among the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) globally and is committed to reducing their incidence. The Syphilis Interventions Towards Elimination (SITE) model was used to explore the expected impact and cost of alternative syphilis intervention scale-up scenarios. METHODS: SITE is a dynamical model of syphilis transmission among adults 15-49 years. Individuals are divided into nine groups based on sexual behaviour and into six stages of infection. The model was calibrated to PNG using data from routine surveillance, bio-behavioural surveys, research studies and program records. Inputs included syphilis prevalence, risk behaviours, intervention coverage and service delivery unit costs. Scenarios compared different interventions (clinical treatment, contact tracing, syphilis screening, and condom promotion) for incidence and cost per infection averted over 2021-2030. RESULTS: Increasing treatment coverage of symptomatic primary/secondary-stage syphilis cases from 25-35% in 2020 to 60% from 2023 onwards reduced estimated incidence over 2021-2030 by 55%, compared to a scenario assuming constant coverage at 2019-2020 levels. The introduction of contact tracing in 2020, assuming 0.4 contacts per symptomatic person treated, reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 10%. Increasing screening coverage by 20-30 percentage points from the 2019-2020 level reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 3-16% depending on the target population. Scaling-up clinical, symptom-driven treatment and contact tracing had the lowest cost per infection averted, followed by condom promotion and periodic screening of female sex workers and men who have sex with men. CONCLUSIONS: PNG could considerably reduce its syphilis burden by scaling-up clinical treatment and contact tracing alongside targeted behavioural risk reduction interventions. SITE is a useful tool countries can apply to inform national STI programming and resource allocation.

National health information systems for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

OBJECTIVES: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require data-driven public health action. There are limited publications on national health information systems that continuously generate health data. Given the need to develop these systems, we summarised their current status in low-income and middle-income countries. SETTING: The survey team jointly developed a questionnaire covering policy, planning, legislation and organisation of case reporting, patient monitoring and civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. From January until May 2017, we administered the questionnaire to key informants in 51 Centers for Disease Control country offices. Countries were aggregated for descriptive analyses in Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: Key informants in 15 countries responded to the questionnaire. Several key informants did not answer all questions, leading to different denominators across questions. The Ministry of Health coordinated case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 93% (14/15), 93% (13/14) and 53% (8/15) of responding countries, respectively. Domestic financing supported case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 86% (12/14), 75% (9/12) and 92% (11/12) of responding countries, respectively. The most common uses for system-generated data were to guide programme response in 100% (15/15) of countries for case reporting, to calculate service coverage in 92% (12/13) of countries for patient monitoring and to estimate the national burden of disease in 83% (10/12) of countries for CRVS. Systems with an electronic component were being used for case reporting, patient monitoring, birth registration and death registration in 87% (13/15), 92% (11/12), 77% (10/13) and 64% (7/11) of responding countries, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Most responding countries have a solid foundation for policy, planning, legislation and organisation of health information systems. Further evaluation is needed to assess the quality of data generated from systems. Periodic evaluations may be useful in monitoring progress in strengthening and harmonising these systems over time.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. DESIGN: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. METHODS: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. RESULTS: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). CONCLUSIONS: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.