Leading Change at Berkeley Public Health: Building the Anti-racist Community for Justice and Social Transformative Change.

A transformative change grounded in a commitment to antiracism and racial and health equity is underway at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health. Responding to a confluence of national, state, and local circumstances, bold leadership, and a moral and disciplinary imperative to name and address racism as a root cause of health inequities, our community united around a common vision of becoming an antiracist institution. Berkeley Public Health has a long history of efforts supporting diversity, equity, inclusion, belonging, and justice. Building upon those efforts, we pursued an institution-wide initiative, one that creates a more equitable and inclusive school of public health that models and supports the development of future public health leaders, practitioners, scholars, and educators. Grounded in the principles of cultural humility, we recognized that our vision was a journey, not a destination. This article describes our efforts from June 2020 through June 2022 in developing and implementing ARC4JSTC (Anti-racist Community for Justice and Social Transformative Change), a comprehensive, multiyear antiracist change initiative encompassing faculty and workforce development, student experience, curriculum and pedagogy, community engagement outreach, and business processes. Our work is data informed, grounded in principles of change management, and focused on building internal capacity to promote long-term change. Our discussion of lessons learned and next steps helps to inform our ongoing work and antiracist institutional change efforts at other schools and programs of public health.

Economic Outcomes of Transcatheter Versus Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in Patients with Severe Aortic Stenosis and Low Surgical Risk: Results from the PARTNER 3 Trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis at low surgical risk, transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with the SAPIEN 3 valve has been shown to reduce the composite of death, stroke, or rehospitalization at 2-year follow-up compared with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Whether TAVR is cost-effective compared with SAVR for low-risk patients remains uncertain. METHODS: Between 2016 and 2017, 1000 low-risk patients with aortic stenosis were randomly assigned to TAVR with the SAPIEN 3 valve or SAVR in the PARTNER 3 trial (Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valves). Of these patients, 929 underwent valve replacement, were enrolled in the United States, and were included in the economic substudy. Procedural costs were estimated using measured resource use. Other costs were determined by linkage with Medicare claims or by regression models when linkage was not feasible. Health utilities were estimated using the EuroQOL 5-item questionnaire. With the use of a Markov model informed by in-trial data, lifetime cost-effectiveness from the perspective of the US health care system was estimated in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: Although procedural costs were nearly $19 000 higher with TAVR, total index hospitalization costs were only $591 more with TAVR compared with SAVR. Follow-up costs were lower with TAVR such that TAVR led to 2-year cost savings of $2030/patient compared with SAVR (95% CI, -$6222 to $1816) and a gain of 0.05 quality-adjusted life-years (95% CI, -0.003 to 0.102). In our base-case analysis, TAVR was projected to be an economically dominant strategy with a 95% probability that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for TAVR would be <$50 000/quality-adjusted life-year gained (consistent with high economic value from a US health care perspective). These findings were sensitive to differences in long-term survival, however, such that a modest long-term survival advantage with SAVR would render SAVR cost-effective (although not cost saving) compared with TAVR. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with severe aortic stenosis and low surgical risk similar to those enrolled in the PARTNER 3 trial, transfemoral TAVR with the SAPIEN 3 valve is cost saving compared with SAVR at 2 years and is projected to be economically attractive in the long run as long as there are no substantial differences in late death between the 2 strategies. Long-term follow-up will be critical to ultimately determine the preferred treatment strategy for low-risk patients from both a clinical and economic perspective.

Inter-rater reliability and prognostic value of baseline Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) scores in observational cohort studies of inpatients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: To reliably quantify the radiographic severity of COVID-19 pneumonia with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score on clinical chest X-rays among inpatients and examine the prognostic value of baseline RALE scores on COVID-19 clinical outcomes. SETTING: Hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in dedicated wards and intensive care units from two different hospital systems. PARTICIPANTS: 425 patients with COVID-19 in a discovery data set and 415 patients in a validation data set. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: We measured inter-rater reliability for RALE score annotations by different reviewers and examined for associations of consensus RALE scores with the level of respiratory support, demographics, physiologic variables, applied therapies, plasma host-response biomarkers, SARS-CoV-2 RNA load and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Inter-rater agreement for RALE scores improved from fair to excellent following reviewer training and feedback (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.85 vs 0.93, respectively). In the discovery cohort, the required level of respiratory support at the time of CXR acquisition (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation (n=178); invasive-mechanical ventilation (n=234), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (n=13)) was significantly associated with RALE scores (median (IQR): 20.0 (14.1-26.7), 26.0 (20.5-34.0) and 44.5 (34.5-48.0), respectively, p<0.0001). Among invasively ventilated patients, RALE scores were significantly associated with worse respiratory mechanics (plateau and driving pressure) and gas exchange metrics (PaO2/FiO2 and ventilatory ratio), as well as higher plasma levels of IL-6, soluble receptor of advanced glycation end-products and soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 (p<0.05). RALE scores were independently associated with 90-day survival in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted HR 1.04 (1.02-1.07), p=0.002). We replicated the significant associations of RALE scores with baseline disease severity and mortality in the independent validation data set. CONCLUSIONS: With a reproducible method to measure radiographic severity in COVID-19, we found significant associations with clinical and physiologic severity, host inflammation and clinical outcomes. The incorporation of radiographic severity assessments in clinical decision-making may provide important guidance for prognostication and treatment allocation in COVID-19.

Validation of a Deep Learning-Based Model to Predict Lung Cancer Risk Using Chest Radiographs and Electronic Medical Record Data.

Importance: Lung cancer screening with chest computed tomography (CT) prevents lung cancer death; however, fewer than 5% of eligible Americans are screened. CXR-LC, an open-source deep learning tool that estimates lung cancer risk from existing chest radiograph images and commonly available electronic medical record (EMR) data, may enable automated identification of high-risk patients as a step toward improving lung cancer screening participation. Objective: To validate CXR-LC using EMR data to identify individuals at high-risk for lung cancer to complement 2022 US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) lung cancer screening eligibility guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study compared CXR-LC estimates with CMS screening guidelines using patient data from a large US hospital system. Included participants were persons who currently or formerly smoked cigarettes with an outpatient posterior-anterior chest radiograph between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2014, with no history of lung cancer or screening CT. Data analysis was performed between May 2021 and June 2022. Exposures: CXR-LC lung cancer screening eligibility (previously defined as having a 3.297% or greater 12-year risk) based on inputs (chest radiograph image, age, sex, and whether currently smoking) extracted from the EMR. Main Outcomes and Measures: 6-year incident lung cancer. Results: A total of 14 737 persons were included in the study population (mean [SD] age, 62.6 [6.8] years; 7154 [48.5%] male; 204 [1.4%] Asian, 1051 [7.3%] Black, 432 [2.9%] Hispanic, 12 330 [85.2%] White) with a 2.4% rate of incident lung cancer over 6 years (361 patients with cancer). CMS eligibility could be determined in 6277 patients (42.6%) using smoking pack-year and quit-date from the EMR. Patients eligible by both CXR-LC and 2022 CMS criteria had a high rate of lung cancer (83 of 974 patients [8.5%]), higher than those eligible by 2022 CMS criteria alone (5 of 177 patients [2.8%]; P < .001). Patients eligible by CXR-LC but not 2022 CMS criteria also had a high 6-year incidence of lung cancer (121 of 3703 [3.3%]). In the 8460 cases (57.4%) where CMS eligibility was unknown, CXR-LC eligible patients had a 5-fold higher rate of lung cancer than ineligible (127 of 5177 [2.5%] vs 18 of 2283 [0.5%]; P < .001). Similar results were found in subgroups, including female patients and Black persons. Conclusions and Relevance: Using routine chest radiographs and other data automatically extracted from the EMR, CXR-LC identified high-risk individuals who may benefit from lung cancer screening CT.

Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) Scores are Highly Reproducible and Prognostic of Clinical Outcomes for Inpatients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Chest imaging is necessary for diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia, but current risk stratification tools do not consider radiographic severity. We quantified radiographic heterogeneity among inpatients with COVID-19 with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score on Chest X-rays (CXRs). METHODS: We performed independent RALE scoring by ≥2 reviewers on baseline CXRs from 425 inpatients with COVID-19 (discovery dataset), we recorded clinical variables and outcomes, and measured plasma host-response biomarkers and SARS-CoV-2 RNA load from subjects with available biospecimens. RESULTS: We found excellent inter-rater agreement for RALE scores (intraclass correlation co-efficient=0.93). The required level of respiratory support at the time of baseline CXRs (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation [n=178]; invasive-mechanical ventilation [n=234], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [n=13]) was significantly associated with RALE scores (median [interquartile range]: 20.0[14.1-26.7], 26.0[20.5-34.0] and 44.5[34.5-48.0], respectively, p<0.0001). Among invasively-ventilated patients, RALE scores were significantly associated with worse respiratory mechanics (plateau and driving pressure) and gas exchange metrics (PaO2/FiO2 and ventilatory ratio), as well as higher plasma levels of IL-6, sRAGE and TNFR1 levels (p<0.05). RALE scores were independently associated with 90-day survival in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04[1.02-1.07], p=0.002). We validated significant associations of RALE scores with baseline severity and mortality in an independent dataset of 415 COVID-19 inpatients. CONCLUSION: Reproducible assessment of radiographic severity revealed significant associations with clinical and physiologic severity, host-response biomarkers and clinical outcome in COVID-19 pneumonia. Incorporation of radiographic severity assessments may provide prognostic and treatment allocation guidance in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Are risk factors necessary for pretest probability assessment of coronary artery disease? A patient similarity network analysis of the PROMISE trial.

BACKGROUND: Pretest probability (PTP) calculators utilize epidemiological-level findings to provide patient-level risk assessment of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). However, their limited accuracies question whether dissimilarities in risk factors necessarily result in differences in CAD. Using patient similarity network (PSN) analyses, we wished to assess the accuracy of risk factors and imaging markers to identify ≥50% luminal narrowing on coronary CT angiography (CCTA) in stable chest-pain patients. METHODS: We created four PSNs representing: patient characteristics, risk factors, non-coronary imaging markers and calcium score. We used spectral clustering to group individuals with similar risk profiles. We compared PSNs to a contemporary PTP score incorporating calcium score and risk factors to identify ≥50% luminal narrowing on CCTA in the CT-arm of the PROMISE trial. We also conducted subanalyses in different age and sex groups. RESULTS: In 3556 individuals, the calcium score PSN significantly outperformed patient characteristic, risk factor, and non-coronary imaging marker PSNs (AUC: 0.81 vs. 0.57, 0.55, 0.54; respectively, p â€‹< â€‹0.001 for all). The calcium score PSN significantly outperformed the contemporary PTP score (AUC: 0.81 vs. 0.78, p â€‹< â€‹0.001), and using 0, 1-100 and â€‹> â€‹100 cut-offs provided comparable results (AUC: 0.81 vs. 0.81, p â€‹= â€‹0.06). Similar results were found in all subanalyses. CONCLUSION: Calcium score on its own provides better individualized obstructive CAD prediction than contemporary PTP scores incorporating calcium score and risk factors. Risk factors may not be able to improve the diagnostic accuracy of calcium score to predict ≥50% luminal narrowing on CCTA.

Activity-Based Cost Analysis of Robotic Anatomic Lung Resection During Program Implementation.

BACKGROUND: While robotic-assisted lung resection has seen a significant rise in adoption, concerns remain regarding initial programmatic outcomes and potential increased costs. We present our initial outcomes and cost analysis since initiation of a robotic lung resection program. METHODS: Patients undergoing either video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy or segmentectomy (VATS) or robotic-assisted lobectomy or segmentectomy (RALS) between August of 2014 and January of 2017 underwent retrospective review. Patients underwent 1:1 propensity matching based on preoperative characteristics. Perioperative and 30-day outcomes were compared between groups. Detailed activity-based costing analysis was performed on individual patient encounters taking into effect direct and indirect controllable costs, including robotic operative supplies. RESULTS: There were no differences in 30-day mortality between RALS (n = 74) and VATS (n = 74) groups (0% vs 1.4%; P = 1). RALS patients had a decreased median length of stay (4 days vs 7 days; P < .001) and decreased median chest tube duration (3 days vs 5 days, P < .001). Total direct costs, including direct supply costs, were not significantly different between RALS and VATS ($6621 vs $6483; P = .784). Median total operating costs and total unit support costs, which are closely correlated to length of stay, were lower in the RALS group. Overall median controllable costs were significantly different between RALS and VATS ($16,352 vs $21,154; P = .025). CONCLUSIONS: A potentially cost-advantageous robotic-assisted pulmonary resection program can be initiated within the context of an existing minimally invasive thoracic surgery program while maintaining good clinical outcomes when compared with traditional VATS. Process-of-care changes associated with RALS may account for decreased costs in this setting.

Vaccine exposure during pregnancy among privately and publicly insured women in the United States, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine use during pregnancy affects maternal and infant health. Many women do not receive vaccines recommended during pregnancy; conversely, inadvertent exposure to vaccines contraindicated or not recommended during pregnancy may occur. We assessed exposure to two recommended vaccines and two vaccines not recommended during pregnancy among privately and Medicaid-insured women in the United States. METHODS: This study includes a retrospective cohort of pregnancies in women aged 12-55 years resulting in live birth, spontaneous abortion, or stillbirth identified in the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial, Blue Health Intelligence® (BHI®) Commercial, and IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid Databases from August 1, 2016, to December 31, 2018. Gestational age at vaccination was determined using a validated algorithm. We examined vaccines (1) recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) (tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis [Tdap]; inactivated influenza) and (2) not recommended (human papillomavirus [HPV]) or contraindicated (measles, mumps, and rubella [MMR]). RESULTS: We identified 496,771 (MarketScan Commercial), 858,961 (BHI), and 289,573 (MarketScan Medicaid) pregnancies (approximately 75% aged 20-34 years). Across these three databases, 52.1%, 50.3%, and 31.3% of pregnancies, respectively, received Tdap, most often at a gestational age of 28 weeks, and influenza vaccination occurred in 32.1%, 30.8%, and 18.0% of pregnancies, respectively. HPV vaccination occurred in < 0.2% of pregnancies, mostly in the first trimester among women aged 12-19 years, and MMR was administered in < 0.1% of pregnancies. Use of other contraindicated vaccines per ACIP (e.g., varicella, live attenuated influenza) was rare. CONCLUSION: Maternal vaccination with ACIP-recommended vaccines was suboptimal among privately and Medicaid-insured patients, with lower vaccination coverage among Medicaid-insured pregnancies than their privately insured counterparts. Inadvertent exposure to contraindicated vaccines during pregnancy was rare. This study evaluated only vaccinations reimbursed among insured populations and may have limited generalizability to uninsured populations.

ICD-10 anaphylaxis algorithm and the estimate of vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis incidence in Medicare.

BACKGROUND: Anaphylaxis is a rare, serious allergic reaction. Its identification in large healthcare databases can help better characterize this risk. OBJECTIVE: To create an ICD-10 anaphylaxis algorithm, estimate its positive predictive values (PPVs) in a post-vaccination risk window, and estimate vaccination-attributable anaphylaxis rates in the Medicare Fee For Service (FFS) population. METHODS: An anaphylaxis algorithm with core and extended portions was constructed analyzing ICD-10 anaphylaxis claims data in Medicare FFS from 2015 to 2017. Cases of post-vaccination anaphylaxis among Medicare FFS beneficiaries were then identified from October 1, 2015 to February 28, 2019 utilizing vaccine relevant anaphylaxis ICD-10 codes. Information from medical records was used to determine true anaphylaxis cases based on the Brighton Collaboration's anaphylaxis case definition. PPVs were estimated for incident anaphylaxis and the subset of vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis within a 2-day post-vaccination risk window. Vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis rates in Medicare FFS were also estimated. RESULTS: The study recorded 66,572,128 vaccinations among 21,685,119 unique Medicare FFS beneficiaries. The algorithm identified a total of 190 suspected anaphylaxis cases within the 2-day post-vaccination window; of these 117 (62%) satisfied the core algorithm, and 73 (38%) additional cases satisfied the extended algorithm. The core algorithm's PPV was 66% (95% CI [56%, 76%]) for identifying incident anaphylaxis and 44% (95% CI [34%, 56%]) for vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis. The vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis incidence rate after any vaccination was 0.88 per million doses (95% CI [0.67, 1.16]). CONCLUSION: The ICD-10 claims algorithm for anaphylaxis allows the assessment of anaphylaxis risk in real-world data. The algorithm revealed vaccine-attributable anaphylaxis is rare among vaccinated Medicare FFS beneficiaries.

Assessment of Coronary Artery Disease With Computed Tomography Angiography and Inflammatory and Immune Activation Biomarkers Among Adults With HIV Eligible for Primary Cardiovascular Prevention.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increased among people with HIV (PWH), but little is known regarding the prevalence and extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) and associated biological factors in PWH with low to moderate traditional CVD risk. Objectives: To determine unique factors associated with CVD in PWH and to assess CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) and critical pathways of arterial inflammation and immune activation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study among male and female PWH, aged 40 to 75 years, without known CVD, receiving stable antiretroviral therapy, and with low to moderate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk according to the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation, was part of the Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV (REPRIEVE), a large, ongoing primary prevention trial of statin therapy among PWH conducted at 31 US sites. Participants were enrolled from May 2015 to February 2018. Data analysis was conducted from May to December 2020. Exposure: HIV disease. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the prevalence and composition of CAD assessed by coronary CTA and, secondarily, the association of CAD with traditional risk indices and circulating biomarkers, including insulin, monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), interleukin (IL) 6, soluble CD14 (sCD14), sCD163, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (LpPLA2), oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). Results: The sample included 755 participants, with a mean (SD) age of 51 (6) years, 124 (16%) female participants, 267 (35%) Black or African American participants, 182 (24%) Latinx participants, a low median (interquartile range) ASCVD risk (4.5% [2.6%-6.8%]), and well-controlled viremia. Overall, plaque was seen in 368 participants (49%), including among 52 of 175 participants (30%) with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk of less than 2.5%. Luminal obstruction of at least 50% was rare (25 [3%]), but vulnerable plaque and high Leaman score (ie, >5) were more frequently observed (172 of 755 [23%] and 118 of 743 [16%], respectively). Overall, 251 of 718 participants (35%) demonstrated coronary artery calcium score scores greater than 0. IL-6, LpPLA2, oxLDL, and MCP-1 levels were higher in those with plaque compared with those without (eg, median [IQR] IL-6 level, 1.71 [1.05-3.04] pg/mL vs 1.45 [0.96-2.60] pg/mL; P = .008). LpPLA2 and IL-6 levels were associated with plaque in adjusted modeling, independent of traditional risk indices and HIV parameters (eg, IL-6: adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study of a large primary prevention cohort of individuals with well-controlled HIV and low to moderate ASCVD risk, CAD, including noncalcified, nonobstructive, and vulnerable plaque, was highly prevalent. Participants with plaque demonstrated higher levels of immune activation and arterial inflammation, independent of traditional ASCVD risk and HIV parameters.

Evolving the Preconception Health Framework: A Call for Reproductive and Sexual Health Equity.

Over the past decade, increasing attention has been paid to intervening in individuals' health in the "preconception" period as an approach to optimizing pregnancy outcomes. Increasing attention to the structural and social determinants of health and to the need to prioritize reproductive autonomy has underscored the need to evolve the preconception health framework to center race equity and to engage with the historical and social context in which reproduction and reproductive health care occur. In this commentary, we describe the results of a meeting with a multidisciplinary group of maternal and child health experts, reproductive health researchers and practitioners, and Reproductive Justice leaders to define a new approach for clinical and public health systems to engage with the health of nonpregnant people. We describe a novel "Reproductive and Sexual Health Equity" framework, defined as an approach to comprehensively meet people's reproductive and sexual health needs, with explicit attention to structural influences on health and health care and grounded in a desire to achieve the highest level of health for all people and address inequities in health outcomes. Principles of the framework include centering the needs of and redistributing power to communities, having clinical and public health systems acknowledge historical and ongoing harms related to reproductive and sexual health, and addressing root causes of inequities. We conclude with a call to action for a multisectoral effort centered in equity to advance reproductive and sexual health across the reproductive life course.

Validation of Wall Shear Stress Assessment in Non-invasive Coronary CTA versus Invasive Imaging: A Patient-Specific Computational Study.

Endothelial shear stress (ESS) identifies coronary plaques at high risk for progression and/or rupture leading to a future acute coronary syndrome. In this study an optimized methodology was developed to derive ESS, pressure drop and oscillatory shear index using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in 3D models of coronary arteries derived from non-invasive coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA). These CTA-based ESS calculations were compared to the ESS calculations using the gold standard with fusion of invasive imaging and CTA. In 14 patients paired patient-specific CFD models based on invasive and non-invasive imaging of the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary arteries were created. Ten patients were used to optimize the methodology, and four patients to test this methodology. Time-averaged ESS (TAESS) was calculated for both coronary models applying patient-specific physiological data available at the time of imaging. For data analysis, each 3D reconstructed coronary artery was divided into 2 mm segments and each segment was subdivided into 8 arcs (45°).TAESS and other hemodynamic parameters were averaged per segment as well as per arc. Furthermore, the paired segment- and arc-averaged TAESS were categorized into patient-specific tertiles (low, medium and high). In the ten LADs, used for optimization of the methodology, we found high correlations between invasively-derived and non-invasively-derived TAESS averaged over segments (n = 263, r = 0.86) as well as arcs (n = 2104, r = 0.85, p < 0.001). The correlation was also strong in the four testing-patients with r = 0.95 (n = 117 segments, p = 0.001) and r = 0.93 (n = 936 arcs, p = 0.001).There was an overall high concordance of 78% of the three TAESS categories comparing both methodologies using the segment- and 76% for the arc-averages in the first ten patients. This concordance was lower in the four testing patients (64 and 64% in segment- and arc-averaged TAESS). Although the correlation and concordance were high for both patient groups, the absolute TAESS values averaged per segment and arc were overestimated using non-invasive vs. invasive imaging [testing patients: TAESS segment: 30.1(17.1-83.8) vs. 15.8(8.8-63.4) and TAESS arc: 29.4(16.2-74.7) vs 15.0(8.9-57.4) p < 0.001]. We showed that our methodology can accurately assess the TAESS distribution non-invasively from CTA and demonstrated a good correlation with TAESS calculated using IVUS/OCT 3D reconstructed models.

Comparative Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines Among US Medicare Beneficiaries Ages 65 Years and Older During the 2019-2020 Season.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 50 000 influenza-associated deaths occur annually in the United States, overwhelmingly among individuals aged ≥65 years. Although vaccination is the primary prevention tool, investigations have shown low vaccine effectiveness (VE) in recent years, particularly among the elderly. We analyzed the relative VE (RVE) of all influenza vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years to prevent influenza hospital encounters during the 2019-2020 season. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using Poisson regression and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Exposures included egg-based high-dose trivalent (HD-IIV3), egg-based adjuvanted trivalent (aIIV3), egg-based standard dose (SD) quadrivalent (IIV4), cell-based SD quadrivalent (cIIV4), and recombinant quadrivalent (RIV4) influenza vaccines. RESULTS: We studied 12.7 million vaccinated beneficiaries. Following IPTW, cohorts were well balanced for all covariates and health-seeking behavior indicators. In the adjusted analysis, RIV4 (RVE, 13.3%; 95% CI, 7.4-18.9%), aIIV3 (RVE, 8.2%; 95% CI, 4.2-12.0%), and HD-IIV3 (RVE, 6.8%; 95% CI, 3.3-10.1%) were significantly more effective in preventing hospital encounters than the reference egg-based SD IIV4, while cIIV4 was not significantly more effective than IIV4 (RVE, 2.8%; 95% CI, -2.8%, 8.2%). Our results were consistent across all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this influenza B-Victoria and A(H1N1)-dominated season, RIV4 was moderately more effective than other vaccines, while HD-IIV3 and aIIV3 were more effective than the IIV4 vaccines, highlighting the contributions of antigen amount and adjuvant use to VE. Egg adaptation likely did not substantially affect our RVE evaluation. Our findings, specific to the 2019-2020 season, should be evaluated in other studies using virological case confirmation.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Anatomic vs Functional Index Testing in Patients With Low-Risk Stable Chest Pain.

Importance: Both noninvasive anatomic and functional testing strategies are now routinely used as initial workup in patients with low-risk stable chest pain (SCP). Objective: To determine whether anatomic approaches (ie, coronary computed tomography angiography [CTA] and coronary CTA supplemented with noninvasive fractional flow reserve [FFRCT], performed in patients with 30% to 69% stenosis) are cost-effective compared with functional testing for the assessment of low-risk SCP. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cost-effectiveness analysis used an individual-based Markov microsimulation model for low-risk SCP. The model was developed using patient data from the Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain (PROMISE) trial. The model was validated by comparing model outcomes with outcomes observed in the PROMISE trial for anatomic (coronary CTA) and functional (stress testing) strategies, including diagnostic test results, referral to invasive coronary angiography (ICA), coronary revascularization, incident major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), and costs during 60 days and 2 years. The validated model was used to determine whether anatomic approaches are cost-effective over a lifetime compared with functional testing. Exposure: Choice of index test for evaluation of low-risk SCP. Main Outcomes and Measures: Downstream ICA and coronary revascularization, MACE (death, nonfatal myocardial infarction), cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of competing strategies. Results: The model cohort included 10 003 individual patients (median [interquartile range] age, 60.0 [54.4-65.9] years; 5270 [52.7%] women; 7693 [77.4%] White individuals), who entered the model 100 times. The Markov model accurately estimated the test assignment, results of anatomic and functional index testing, referral to ICA, revascularization, MACE, and costs at 60 days and 2 years compared with observed data in PROMISE (eg, coronary CTA: ICA, 12.2% [95% CI, 10.9%-13.5%] vs 12.3% [95% CI, 12.2%-12.4%]; revascularization, 6.2% [95% CI, 5.5%-6.9%] vs 6.4% [95% CI, 6.3%-6.5%]; functional strategy: ICA, 8.1% [95% CI, 7.4%-8.9%] vs 8.2% [95% CI, 8.1%-8.3%]; revascularization, 3.2% [95% CI, 2.7%-3.7%] vs 3.3% [95% CI, 3.2%-3.4%]; 2-year MACE rates: coronary CTA, 2.1% [95% CI, 1.7%-2.5%] vs 2.3% [95% CI, 2.2%-2.4%]; functional strategy, 2.2% [95% CI, 1.8%-2.6%] vs 2.4% [95% CI, 2.3%-2.4%]). Anatomic approaches led to higher ICA and revascularization rates at 60 days, 2 years, and 5 years compared with functional testing but were more effective in patient selection for ICA (eg, 60-day revascularization-to-ICA ratio, CTA: 53.7% [95% CI, 53.3%-54.0%]; CTA with FFRCT: 59.5% [95% CI, 59.2%-59.8%]; functional testing: 40.7% [95% CI, 40.4%-50.0%]). Over a lifetime, anatomic approaches gained an additional 6 months in perfect health compared with functional testing (CTA, 25.16 [95% CI, 25.14-25.19] QALYs; CTA with FFRCT, 25.14 [95% CI, 25.12-25.17] QALYs; functional testing, 24.68 [95% CI, 24.66-24.70] QALYs). Anatomic strategies were less costly and more effective; thus, CTA with FFRCT dominated and CTA alone was cost-effective (ICERs ranged from $1912/QALY for women and $3,559/QALY for men) compared with functional testing. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, anatomic approaches were cost-effective in more than 65% of scenarios, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that anatomic strategies may present a more favorable initial diagnostic option in the evaluation of low-risk SCP compared with functional testing.

Relative Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines Among the United States Elderly, 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Studies among individuals ages ≥65 years have found a moderately higher relative vaccine effectiveness (RVE) for the high-dose (HD) influenza vaccine compared with standard-dose (SD) products for most seasons. Studies during the A(H3N2)-dominated 2017-2018 season showed slightly higher RVE for the cell-cultured vaccine compared with SD egg-based vaccines. We investigated the RVE of influenza vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries ages ≥65 years during the 2018-2019 season. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using inverse probability of treatment weighting and Poisson regression to evaluate RVE in preventing influenza hospital encounters. RESULTS: Among 12 777 214 beneficiaries, the egg-based adjuvanted (RVE, 7.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9%-11.4%) and HD (RVE, 4.9%; 95% CI, 1.7%-8.1%) vaccines were marginally more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccines. The cell-cultured quadrivalent vaccine was not significantly more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccine (RVE, 2.5%; 95% CI, -2.4% to 7.3%). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find major effectiveness differences between licensed vaccines used among the elderly during the 2018-2019 season. Consistent with prior research, we found that the egg-based adjuvanted and HD vaccines were slightly more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccines.

Perspectives on the Future of Epidemiology: A Framework for Training.

Over the past century, the field of epidemiology has evolved and adapted to changing public health needs. Challenges include newly emerging public health concerns across broad and diverse content areas, new methods, and vast data sources. We recognize the need to engage and educate the next generation of epidemiologists and prepare them to tackle these issues of the 21st century. In this commentary, we suggest a skeleton framework upon which departments of epidemiology should build their curriculum. We propose domains that include applied epidemiology, biological and social determinants of health, communication, creativity and ability to collaborate and lead, statistical methods, and study design. We believe all students should gain skills across these domains to tackle the challenges posed to us. The aim is to train smart thinkers, not technicians, to embrace challenges and move the expanding field of epidemiology forward.

Radiomics versus Visual and Histogram-based Assessment to Identify Atheromatous Lesions at Coronary CT Angiography: An ex Vivo Study.

Background Visual and histogram-based assessments of coronary CT angiography have limited accuracy in the identification of advanced lesions. Radiomics-based machine learning (ML) could provide a more accurate tool. Purpose To compare the diagnostic performance of radiomics-based ML with that of visual and histogram-based assessment of ex vivo coronary CT angiography cross sections to identify advanced atherosclerotic lesions defined with histologic examination. Materials and Methods In this prospective study, 21 coronary arteries from seven hearts obtained from male donors (mean age, 52.3 years ± 5.3) were imaged ex vivo with coronary CT angiography between February 23, 2009, and July 31, 2010. From 95 coronary plaques, 611 histologic cross sections were coregistered with coronary CT cross sections. Lesions were considered advanced if early fibroatheroma, late fibroatheroma, or thin-cap atheroma was present. CT cross sections were classified as showing homogeneous, heterogeneous, or napkin-ring sign plaques on the basis of visual assessment. The area of low attenuation (<30 HU) and the average Hounsfield unit were quantified. Radiomic parameters were extracted and used as inputs to ML algorithms. Eight radiomics-based ML models were trained on randomly selected cross sections (training set, 75% of the cross sections) to identify advanced lesions. Visual assessment, histogram-based assessment, and the best ML model were compared on the remaining 25% of the data (validation set) by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to identify advanced lesions. Results After excluding sections with no visible plaque (n = 134) and with heavy calcium (n = 32), 445 cross sections were analyzed. Of those 445 cross sections, 134 (30.1%) were advanced lesions. Visual assessment of the 445 cross sections indicated that 207 (46.5%) were homogeneous, 200 (44.9%) were heterogeneous, and 38 (8.5%) demonstrated the napkin-ring sign. A radiomics-based ML model incorporating 13 parameters outperformed visual assessment (AUC = 0.73 with 95% confidence interval [CI] of 0.63, 0.84 vs 0.65 with 95% CI of 0.56, 0.73, respectively; P = .04), area of low attenuation (AUC = 0.55 with 95% CI of 0.42, 0.68; P = .01), and average Hounsfield unit (AUC = 0.53 with 95% CI of 0.42, 0.65; P = .004) in the identification of advanced atheromatous lesions. Conclusion Radiomics-based machine learning analysis improves the discriminatory power of coronary CT angiography in the identification of advanced atherosclerotic lesions. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Intraoperative near infrared fluorescence imaging for the assessment of the gastric conduit.

Esophagectomy remains a mainstay of multi-modality therapy in the treatment of malignant disease, as well as selected benign conditions. Anastomotic and conduit complications remain the Achilles' heel of these operations, contributing to major morbidity and mortality. Adequate vascular perfusion of the gastric conduit is vital to avoid these complications, with surgeon observational assessment the mainstay of determining the vascular health of the gastric conduit. Rates of morbidity remain significant, and technologies aimed at better assessing relative tissue perfusion and ischemia are increasingly under investigation and utilized. One such technique is the use of intraoperative near-infrared fluorescence imaging to directly assess these parameters. The application of this technique has shown promise in perfusion assessment during esophagectomy, and potential reduction in anastomotic complications.