Regional economic costs of climate change: An interdisciplinary impact assessment for Upper Austria.

Region-specific meteorological data show that Upper Austria will mainly be affected by increasing temperatures (up to +2.7 °C in 2050) and decreasing precipitation (up to - 27 mm in 2050). Using an interdisciplinary framework, we derive climatic developments and quantify the resulting direct sectoral and macroeconomic impacts for Upper Austria. Based on a set of climate change indicators, sectoral damages are monetized for selected impact chains in forestry, health, agriculture, space heating and cooling, and winter tourism. These damage costs are used as input for ex-ante simulations to quantify the macroeconomic impacts in 2022-2050. The results show an annual decline in gross regional product, accompanied by an annual decline in employment. This study provides a basis for decision making in Upper Austria, as well as in regions with comparable geographical, economic or demographic structures, and highlights the importance of region-specific climate change adaptation strategies.

Uncertainty of modelled flow regime for flow-ecological assessment in Southern Europe.

Sustainable water basin management requires characterization of flow regime in river networks impacted by anthropogenic pressures. Flow regime in ungauged catchments under current, future, or natural conditions can be assessed with hydrological models. Developing hydrological models is, however, resource demanding such that decision makers might revert to models that have been developed for other purposes and are made available to them ('off-the-shelf' models). In this study, the impact of epistemic uncertainty of flow regime indicators on flow-ecological assessment was assessed at selected stations with drainage areas ranging from about 400 to almost 90,000km2 in four South European basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava). For each basin, at least two models were employed. Models differed in structure, data input, spatio-temporal resolution, and calibration strategy, reflecting the variety of conditions and purposes for which they were initially developed. The uncertainty of modelled flow regime was assessed by comparing the modelled hydrologic indicators of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and rate of change to those obtained from observed flow. The results showed that modelled flow magnitude indicators at medium and high flows were generally reliable, whereas indicators for flow timing, duration, and rate of change were affected by large uncertainties, with correlation coefficients mostly below 0.50. These findings mirror uncertainty in flow regime indicators assessed with other methods, including from measured streamflow. The large indicator uncertainty may significantly affect assessment of ecological status in freshwater systems, particularly in ungauged catchments. Finally, flow-ecological assessments proved very sensitive to reference flow regime (i.e., without anthropogenic pressures). Model simulations could not adequately capture flow regime in the reference sites comprised in this study. The lack of reliable reference conditions may seriously hamper flow-ecological assessments. This study shows the pressing need for improving assessment of natural flow regime at pan-European scale.

Modelling crop land use change derived from influencing factors selected and ranked by farmers in North temperate agricultural regions.

To develop meaningful land use scenarios, drivers that affect changes in the landscape are required. In this study, driving factors that influence farmers to change crops on their farm were determined. A questionnaire was administered to four independent groups of farmers who identified and ranked influencing factors pertaining to their choices of crops. The farmers were located in two mid-latitude agricultural watersheds (in Germany and Canada). The ranked influencing factors were used to develop a "farmer driven" scenario to 2040 in both watersheds. Results showed that the most important influencing factors for farmers to change crops were the "economic return of the crop" and "market factors". Yet, when the drivers of crop land use change were grouped into two categories of "financial" and "indirectly-related financial" factors, the "financial" factors made up approximately half of the influencing factors. For some responses, the "indirectly-related financial" factors (i.e. "access to farm equipment", the "farm experience", and "climate") ranked higher than or just as high as the financial factors. Overall, in the four farmer groups the differences between the rankings of the influencing factors were minor, indicating that drivers may be transferable between farms if the farmers are full-time and the farming regions have comparable growing seasons, access to markets, similar technology, and government programs for farm income. In addition to the "farmer driven" scenario, a "policy driven" scenario was derived for each watershed based only on available information on the financial incentives provided to farmers (i.e. agricultural subsidies, income support, crop insurance). The influencing factors ranked by the farmers provided in-depth information that was not captured by the "policy driven" scenario and contributed to improving predictions for crop land use development. This straight-forward method to rank qualitative data provided by farmers can easily be replicated in other watersheds to improve environmental impact modelling.

Environmental and socio-economic methodologies and solutions towards integrated water resources management.

Semi-arid regions are facing the challenge of managing water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and drought. These are recently pressured by the impact of climate change favoring the shifting from using surface water to groundwater without taking sustainability issues into account. Likewise, water scarcity raises the competition for water among users, increasing the risk of social conflicts, as the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is already one of the major factors limiting socio-economic development. In terms of hydrology, semi-arid regions are characterized by very complex hydro- and hydrogeological systems. The complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the poor data availability, (1) which limits the number of analysis techniques and methods available to researchers, (2) limits the accuracy of models and predictions, and (3) consequently challenges the capabilities to develop appropriate management measures to mitigate or adapt the environment to scarcity and drought conditions. Integrated water resources management is a holistic approach to focus on both environmental as well as on socio-economic factors influencing water availability and supply. The management approaches and solutions adopted, e.g. in form of decision support for specific water resources systems, are often highly specific for individual case studies.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments.

Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better policy decisions when attempting to mitigate climate and social change impacts. The CLIWASEC clustering offers an encouraging path for the new European Commission Horizon 2020 programme to follow.

Clinical epidemiology of invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma in the Austrian province Styria in the years 2001-2003 and its relationship with local geographical, meteorological and economic data.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma incidence rates vary within Europe. The highest incidences are reported in Scandinavia, the lowest in the southern parts, but incidences themselves also vary within the different countries. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the incidence of invasive cutaneous melanoma in Styria, a province of Austria, in the years 2001-2003. METHODS: Data from 1,082 patients, 511 males and 571 females (mean age 58.2 years) with primary melanoma were collected. For each patient, information regarding residence was available, and therefore the geographic distribution of melanoma on district level was investigated with particular reference to the mean number of sun hours, mean altitude, number of companies with more than 200 employees and median income. RESULTS: The mean annual incidence (age-standardized rate) was 24.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 22.4-26.6), lifetime risk 1 in 52. Districts with a higher number of sun hours and higher altitude showed lower melanoma incidences. Higher median income was associated with higher melanoma incidence (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The high incidence of invasive melanoma in Styria is unclear and a causal relationship between higher income and melanoma incidence remains speculative. Further investigations, especially concerning lifestyle and environmental factors, may unravel additional causative factors.