Revisiting the association of blood pressure with mortality in oldest old people in China: community based, longitudinal prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of blood pressure with all cause mortality and cause specific mortality at three years among oldest old people in China. DESIGN: Community based, longitudinal prospective study. SETTING: 2011 and 2014 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, conducted in 22 Chinese provinces. PARTICIPANTS: 4658 oldest old individuals (mean age 92.1 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause mortality and cause specific mortality assessed at three year follow-up. RESULTS: 1997 deaths were recorded at three year follow-up. U shaped associations of mortality with systolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure were identified; values of 143.5 mm Hg, 101 mm Hg, and 66 mm Hg conferred the minimum mortality risk, respectively. After adjustment for covariates, the U shaped association remained only for systolic blood pressure (minimum mortality risk at 129 mm Hg). Compared with a systolic blood pressure value of 129 mm Hg, risk of all cause mortality decreased for values lower than 107 mm Hg (from 1.47 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.17) to 1.08 (1.01 to 1.17)), and increased for values greater than 154 mm Hg (from 1.08 (1.01 to 1.17) to 1.27 (1.02 to 1.58)). In the cause specific analysis, compared with a middle range of systolic blood pressure (107-154 mm Hg), higher values (>154 mm Hg) were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.51 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 2.02)); lower values (<107 mm Hg) were associated with a higher risk of non-cardiovascular mortality (1.58 (1.26 to 1.98)). The U shaped associations remained in sensitivity and subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates a U shaped association between systolic blood pressure and all cause mortality at three years among oldest old people in China. This association could be explained by the finding that higher systolic blood pressure predicted a higher risk of death from cardiovascular disease, and that lower systolic blood pressure predicted a higher risk of death from non-cardiovascular causes. These results emphasise the importance of revisiting blood pressure management or establishing specific guidelines for management among oldest old individuals.

China's Efforts on Management, Surveillance, and Research of Noncommunicable Diseases: NCD Scorecard Project.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is rising dramatically throughout the world. Aspects of researches concerned with the improvement and development of prevention and control of NCDs have been conducted. Furthermore, the influence of most determinants of the major NCDs has showed that a broad and deep response involving stakeholders in different sectors is required in the prevention and control of NCDs. OBJECTIVE: China has experienced an increase in NCDs in a short period compared with many countries. To address the burden of NCDs in China, it is important to learn about the progress that has been made in prevention and control of NCDs in China and worldwide, informed by opinions of stakeholders in different areas. METHODS: In 2014, GRAND South developed the NCD Scorecard instrument to evaluate progress of NCD prevention and control in 23 countries through a 2-round Delphi process. The scorecard included 51 indicators in 4 domains: governance, surveillance and research, prevention and risk factors, and health system response. Stakeholders were then selected in the areas of government, nongovernmental organizations, private sectors, and academia to join the NCD Scorecard survey. Indicators of progress were scored by stakeholders from 0 (no activity), 1 (present but not adequate), and 2 (adequate) to 3 (highly adequate) and then the percentage of progress in each domain was calculated, representing the current situation in each country. FINDINGS: There were 14 indicators in the domains of governance and surveillance and research. Of 429 stakeholders worldwide, 41 in China participated in the survey. China scored in the top 5 out of all participating countries in those 2 domains, scoring 67% in governance and 64% in surveillance and research. Indicators on which China scored particularly well included having a well-resourced unit or department responsible for NCDs, having a strong national system for recording the cause of all deaths, and having a system of NCD surveillance. Areas where China had the greatest need for improvement included increasing taxes on tobacco and addressing the needs of the population older than age 70 dying from major NCDs. CONCLUSION: In China the burden of disease of NCDs and disabilities remains serious, although China has put significant efforts into its governance and surveillance and research. To improve, further action is needed on reducing tobacco consumption, increasing investment in the national health budget, and increasing the focus on system construction.