Historical trends of breast cancer burden attributable to metabolic factors among Chinese women, 1990-2019: A population-based epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND:  This study aims to analyze breast cancer burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used for attributable burden, and age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort. RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of breast cancer attributable to high BMI were 1.107 (95% UI: 0.311, 2.327) and 29.990 (8.384, 60.713) per 100 000, and mortality and DALY rates attributable to high FPG were 0.519 (0.095, 1.226) and 13.662 (2.482, 32.425) per 100 000. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of breast cancer attributable to high BMI increased by 1.192% and 1.180%, and the trends of high FPG were not statistically significant. The APC results showed that the age effects of high BMI and high FPG-mortality and DALY rates increased, with the highest rates in the age group over 80 years. The birth cohort effects of high BMI showed "inverted V" shapes, while high FPG showed downward trends. CONCLUSIONS: Age was the main reason for the increase of attributable burden, and postmenopausal women were the high-risk groups. Therefore, targeted prevention measures should be developed to improve postmenopausal women's awareness and effectively reduce the prevalence of obesity and diabetes, thereby reducing the breast cancer burden caused by metabolic factors in China.

Estimating disparities of prostate cancer burden and its attributable risk factors for males across the BRICS-plus, 1990-2019: A comparable study of key nations with emerging economies.

BACKGROUNDS: The study aimed to analyze epidemiology burden of male prostate cancer across the BRICS-plus, and identify potential risk factors by assessing the associations with age, period, birth cohorts and sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to assess long-term trends, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze these three effects on prostate cancer burden. Quantile regression was used to investigate the association between SDI and health outcomes. RESULTS: The higher incidence and mortality were observed in Mercosur and SACU regions, increasing trends were observed in prostate cancer incidence in almost all BRICS-plus countries (AAPC > 0), and EEU's grew by 24.31% (%AAPC range: -0.13-3.03). Mortality had increased in more than half of countries (AAPC > 0), and SACU grew by 1.82% (%AAPC range: 0.62-1.75). Incidence and mortality risk sharply increased with age across all BRICS-plus countries and globally, and the peak was reached in the age group 80-84 years. Rate ratio (RR) of incidence increased with birth cohorts in all BRICS-plus countries except for Kazakhstan where slightly decrease, while mortality RR decreased with birth cohort in most of BRICS-plus countries. SDI presented significantly positive associations with incidence in 50 percentiles. The deaths attributable to smoking declined in most of BRICS-plus nations, and many countries in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU had higher values. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer posed a serious public health challenge with an increasing burden among most of BRICS-plus countries. Age had significant effects on prostate cancer burden, and recent birth cohorts suffered from higher incidence risk. SDI presented a positive relationship with incidence, and the smoking-attributable burden was tremendous in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU region. Secondary prevention should be prioritized in BRICS-plus nations, and health policies targeting important populations should be strengthened based on their characteristics and adaptability.

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world's population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries' sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: The BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global. Results: In 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region's greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r1990= -0.91, p<0.001; r2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate. Conclusions: The BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS' efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

Catalytic ozonation of sulfamethoxazole using low-cost natural silicate ore supported Fe2O3: influencing factors, reaction mechanisms and degradation pathways.

A low-cost natural silicate ore supported Fe2O3 (FeSO) was synthesized for catalytic ozonation of sulfamethoxazole (SMX). XRD, SEM-EDS, BET, FTIR and XPS results of the FeSO catalyst confirmed that the natural silicate ore was successfully modified with iron oxide. The effects of key factors, such as catalyst dosage, initial solution pH, reaction temperature, inorganic anions and initial concentration, on ozonation degradation were systemically investigated. The degradation rate of SMX (20 mg L-1) was 88.1% after 30 min, compared with only 35.1% SMX degradation rate in the absence of the catalyst, and the total organic carbon (TOC) removal reached 49.1% after 60 min. Reaction mechanisms revealed that surface hydroxyl groups of FeSO were a critical factor for hydroxyl radical (˙OH) production leading to fast SMX degradation in the ozone decomposition process. The degradation products were detected, and the possible pathways of SMX were then proposed. This study provides guidance for preparing a low-cost catalyst and analyzing the degradation products and pathways of SMX in the ozonation process, which is of significance in practical industrial applications.

The spatial and temporal trends of severe periodontitis burden in Asia, 1990-2019: A population-based epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the long-term and spatial patterns of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates of severe periodontitis in Asia from 1990 to 2019, and to estimate the associations between disease burden and socioeconomic development using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: Data were obtained from the global burden of disease study 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to reflect temporal trends, spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to estimate the spatial characteristics, and spatial panel models were used to investigate the association between SDI and severe periodontitis burden. RESULTS: For Asia as a whole, the crude rates increased by 1.10% per year for incidence, 1.42% per year for prevalence, and 1.41% per year for DALY from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence and DALY rates increased by 0.18%, 0.22%, and 0.23% per year, respectively. Spatially, the hot spots of age-standardized incidence, prevalence and DALY rates were located in Southern Asia, besides, these rates all showed increasing trends in most countries, and the increases were clustered in Southeastern Asia. Further, SDI showed a negative association with incidence (coef = -14.44; 95% CI: -24.63, -4.25) and prevalence (coef = -40.09; -51.81, -28.36), and a positive association with DALY rates (coef = 0.31; 0.23; 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Severe periodontitis poses a serious public health challenge in Asian countries with increasing temporal trends and substantial spatial inequalities. Effective geographically targeted public health interventions and strategies are needed to address the growing burden associated with severe periodontitis.

Spatial and temporal patterns of prostate cancer burden and their association with Socio-Demographic Index in Asia, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer for males worldwide, but the spatial and temporal trends of prostate cancer burden remain unknown in Asia. This study aimed to investigate the changing spatial and temporal trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of prostate cancer, and their association with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) in 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool, covering 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated to evaluate temporal trends. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to obtain spatial patterns, and the association between SDI and prostate cancer burden was estimated using a spatial panel model. RESULTS: In Asia, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate cancer increased in almost all countries, and its mortality and DALY also increased in over half of the countries. Significantly regional disparities were found in Asia, and the hot spots for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY were all located in Western Asia, the hot spots of percent change also occurred in Western Asia for incidence and DALY. Furthermore, SDI had a positive association with mortality (coef = 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.13-2.90) and negative association with DALY (coef = -14.99, 95% CI: -20.37 to -9.60) and MIR (coef = -0.95, 95%CI: -0.99 to -0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer burden increased rapidly throughout Asia and substantial disparities had persisted between countries. Geographically targeted interventions are needed to reduce the prostate cancer burden throughout Asia and in specific countries.

An analysis of the characteristics of road traffic injuries and a prediction of fatalities in China from 1996 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzed the characteristics and burdens of road traffic injuries (RTIs) from the 3 perspectives of time, space, and population in China and predicted traffic fatalities using 2 models. METHODS: By extracting data from the China Statistical Yearbooks and GBD 2015 (Global Health Data Exchange), we described the change in the time trend of traffic crashes and economic losses associated with the rate of motorization in China from 1996 to 2015; analyzed the geographical distribution of these events by geographic information system; and evaluated the age-, sex-, and cause-specific death rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, years of life lost (YLL) rate, and years lost due to disability (YLD) rate lost from RTIs from 1990 to 2015. In addition, we predicted the traffic fatality (per population or vehicles) trend using the log-linear model derived from Smeed's and Borsos' models. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2015, the motorization rate showed rapid growth, increasing from 0.023 to 0.188. With the growth in the motorization rate, the time trends of traffic crashes and economic losses in China changed, showing a tendency to first increase and then later decrease. The crashes and losses were closely correlated and mainly distributed in some of the economically developed provinces, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, and Guangdong provinces. The health burden of RTIs presented a time trend similar to that of the economic burden, and it was higher among males than females. The death rate among older pedestrians was higher. The DALY rate and YLL rate among young and middle-aged pedestrians were higher. The YLD rate among older motor vehicle drivers was higher. In addition, the fatalities per 10,000 vehicles continued to decline, and Borsos's model was better fitted to the reported traffic fatalities than Smeed's model. CONCLUSIONS: Although the burden of RTIs in China has declined, the burden of RTIs is still heavy. Hence, RTIs remain a universal problem of great public health concern in China, and we need to work hard to reduce them.

Burden of Ischaemic heart disease and attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2015: findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study.

BACKGROUND: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a major barrier to sustainable human development, but its health burden and geographic distribution among provinces of China remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate IHD burden in provinces of China, and attributable to risk factors from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study, which evaluated IHD burden and attributable risk factors using deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Statistical models including cause of death ensemble modelling, Bayesian meta-regression analysis, and comparative risk assessment approaches were applied to reduce bias and produce comprehensive results of IHD deaths, DALYs and attributable risks. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated and reported for mortality and DALYs. RESULTS: The age-standardised death rate per 100,000 people increased by 13.3% from 101.3 (95%UI: 95.3-107.5) to 114.8 (95%UI: 109.8-120.1) from 1990 to 2015 in China, whereas the age-standardised DALY rate declined 3.9% to 1760.2 per 100,000 people (95%UI: 1671.6-1864.3). In 2015, the age-standardised death rate per 100,000 people was the highest in Heilongjiang (187.4, 95%UI: 161.6-217.5) and the lowest in Shanghai (44.2, 95%UI: 37.0-53.1), and the age-standardised DALY rate per 100,000 people was the highest in Xinjiang (3040.8, 95%UI: 2488.8-3735.4) and the lowest in Shanghai (524.4, 95%UI: 434.7-638.4). Geographically, the age-standardised death and DALY rates for southern provinces were lower than northern provinces, especially in southeastern coastal provinces. 95.3% of the IHD burden in China was attributable to environmental, behavioural and metabolic risk factors. The five leading IHD risks in 2015 were high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, diet high in sodium, diet low in whole grains, and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Population growth and ageing has led to a steady increase in the IHD burden. Regional disparities in IHD burden were observed in provinces of China. The distribution characteristics of IHD burden provide guidance for decision makers to formulate targeted preventive policies and interventions.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Stroke Mortality in China: Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke has been the leading cause of death in China. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends of stroke mortality in China between 1994 and 2013. METHODS: The mortality data were obtained from the GBD 2013 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2013) and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. RESULTS: We found that the net drift was -2.665% (95% confidence interval, -2.854% to -2.474%) per year for men and -4.064% (95% confidence interval, -4.279% to -3.849%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (P<0.05 for all) in both sexes during the period of 1994 to 2013. In the same birth cohort, the risk of death from stroke rose exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with P<0.05 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period (significantly with P<0.05 for both). CONCLUSIONS: The decreased mortality rates of stroke in China are likely to be related to improvements in medical care and techniques, spectacular economic growth and fast urbanization, and better early life nutrition conditions of Chinese people. Besides, better education and better awareness of stroke-related knowledge in successive generations could also probably play a role.