Large-scale assessment of intra- and inter-annual breeding success using a remote camera network.

Changes in the physical environment along the Antarctic Peninsula have been among the most rapid anywhere on the planet. In concert with environmental change, the potential for direct human disturbance resulting from tourism, scientific programs, and commercial fisheries continues to rise in the region. While seabirds, such as the gentoo penguin Pygoscelis papua, are commonly used to assess the impact of these disturbances on natural systems, research efforts are often hampered by limited spatial coverage and lack of temporal resolution. Using a large-scale remote time-lapse camera network and a modeling framework adapted from capture-recapture studies, we assess drivers of intra- and inter-annual dynamics in gentoo penguin breeding success across nearly the entire species' range in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. We quantify the precise timing of egg/chick mortality within each season and examine the role of precipitation events, tourism visitation, and fishing activity for Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (a principal prey resource in the Antarctic) in these processes. We find that nest failure rates are higher in the egg than the chick stage and that neither krill fishing nor tourism visitation had a strong effect on gentoo penguin breeding success. While precipitation events had, on average, little effect on nest mortality, results suggest that extreme weather events can precipitate sharp increases in nest failure. This study highlights the importance of continuous ecosystem monitoring, facilitated here by remote time-lapse cameras, in understanding ecological responses to environmental stressors, particularly with regard to the timing of events such as extreme weather.

A global population assessment of the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica).

Using satellite imagery, drone imagery, and ground counts, we have assembled the first comprehensive global population assessment of Chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) at 3.42 (95th-percentile CI: [2.98, 4.00]) million breeding pairs across 375 extant colonies. Twenty-three previously known Chinstrap penguin colonies are found to be absent or extirpated. We identify five new colonies, and 21 additional colonies previously unreported and likely missed by previous surveys. Limited or imprecise historical data prohibit our assessment of population change at 35% of all Chinstrap penguin colonies. Of colonies for which a comparison can be made to historical counts in the 1980s, 45% have probably or certainly declined and 18% have probably or certainly increased. Several large colonies in the South Sandwich Islands, where conditions apparently remain favorable for Chinstrap penguins, cannot be assessed against a historical benchmark. Our population assessment provides a detailed baseline for quantifying future changes in Chinstrap penguin abundance, sheds new light on the environmental drivers of Chinstrap penguin population dynamics in Antarctica, and contributes to ongoing monitoring and conservation efforts at a time of climate change and concerns over declining krill abundance in the Southern Ocean.

Spatially integrated assessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula.

As important marine mesopredators and sensitive indicators of Antarctic ecosystem change, penguins have been a major focus of long-term biological research in the Antarctic. However, the vast majority of such studies have been constrained by logistics and relate mostly to the temporal dynamics of individual breeding populations from which regional trends have been inferred, often without regard for the complex spatial heterogeneity of population processes and the underlying environmental conditions. Integrating diverse census data from 70 breeding sites across 31 years in a robust, hierarchical analysis, we find that trends from intensely studied populations may poorly reflect regional dynamics and confuse interpretation of environmental drivers. Results from integrated analyses confirm that Pygoscelis adeliae (Adélie Penguins) are decreasing at almost all locations on the Antarctic Peninsula. Results also resolve previously contradictory studies and unambiguously establish that P. antarctica (Chinstrap Penguins), thought to benefit from decreasing sea ice, are instead declining regionally. In contrast, another open-water species, P. papua (Gentoo Penguin), is increasing in abundance and expanding southward. These disparate population trends accord with recent mechanistic hypotheses of biological change in the Southern Ocean and highlight limitations of the influential but oversimplified "sea ice" hypothesis. Aggregating population data at the regional scale also allows us to quantify rates of regional population change in a way not previously possible.

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: challenges for regional ecosystem management.

An adaptive management approach is necessary but not sufficient to address the long-term challenges of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Adaptive management, in turn, has its own particular challenges, of which we focus on two: science input, and stakeholder engagement. In order to frame our discussion and subsequent recommendations, we place the current management difficulties into their historical context, with special emphasis on the 1990 Vision document, which attempted a broad synthesis of management goals for the ecosystem. After examining these two key challenges in the context of the GYE, we make several recommendations that would allow for more effective ecosystem management in the long term. First, we recommend adoption of the GYE as a site for long-term science research and monitoring with an emphasis on integrative research, long-term federal funding, and public dissemination of data. Second, we conclude that a clearer prioritization of legislative mandates would allow for more flexible ecosystem management in the GYE, a region where conflicting mandates have historically led to litigation antithetical to effective ecosystem management. Finally, we recommend a renewed attempt at an updated Vision for the Future that engages stakeholders (including local landholders) substantively from the outset.