Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Background: Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region. Methods: We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030. Results: In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries. Conclusions: HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.

Temporal and spatial distributions, source identification, and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in PM2.5 from 2016 to 2021 in Shenzhen, China.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous contaminants in the atmosphere that have drawn intense attention due to their carcinogenicity and mutagenicity. In this work, 1424 air samples were collected between January 2016 and December 2021 in three areas of Shenzhen, China to determine the concentrations of PM2.5 and PAHs and their spatiotemporal variation. Human health risks due to the daily intake and uptake of PAHs and the resulting incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) were also evaluated. PAHs were detected frequently in the samples at concentrations between 0.28 and 32.7 ng/m3 (median: 1.04 ng/m3). PM2.5 and PAH concentrations decreased from 2016 to 2021, and the Yantian area had lower median concentrations of PM2.5 (23.0 µg/m3) and PAHs (0.02 ng/m3) than the Longgang and Nanshan areas. The concentrations of PM2.5 and PAHs were significantly higher in winter than in summer. Analysis of diagnostic ratios indicated that petroleum combustion was the dominant source of airborne PAHs in Shenzhen. The estimated daily intake (EDI) and uptake (EDU) of PAHs by local residents decreased gradually with increasing age, indicating that infants are at particular risk of PAH exposure. However, the incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCRs) were below the threshold value of 10-6, indicating that inhalation exposure to PAHs posed a negligible carcinogenic risk to Shenzhen residents. While promising, these results may underestimate actual PAH exposure levels, so further analysis of health risks due to PAHs in Shenzhen is needed.

A nationwide investigation of trace elements in rice and wheat flour in China: Levels, spatial distributions and implications for human exposure.

Rises in trace element contents in rice and wheat flour, which are staple foods for almost all the Chinese population, associated with rapid economic development have raised major concerns. This study aimed to assess trace element concentrations in these foods nationwide in China and associated human exposure risks. For these purposes, nine trace elements were measured in 260 rice samples and 181 wheat flour samples with 17 and 12 widely scattered geographical origins in China, respectively. Mean concentrations (mg kg-1) of the trace elements declined in the following orders: Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > As > Cr > Cd > Se > Co in rice, and Zn > Cu > Ni > Se > Pb > Cr > Cd > As > Co in wheat flour. Significant regional differences in levels of trace elements in both rice and wheat flour were detected (p < 0.05), which may be related to local economic indicators. The hazard index (HI) of trace elements in rice samples from all origins exceeded 1, mainly due to the contribution of As, suggesting a potential non-carcinogenic risk. The total carcinogenic risk (TCR) for rice and wheat flour of all origins exceeded the safe level.

Organophosphate ester exposure among Chinese waste incinerator workers: Urinary levels, risk assessment and associations with oxidative stress.

Organophosphate esters (OPEs), which are frequently used as flame retardants and plasticizers in versatile products, are readily released to the external environment. Although workers at municipal waste incineration plants may be extensively exposed to OPEs, only scarce health monitoring and risk assessments have been conducted in this population. In this study, we investigated the levels of eight metabolites of organophosphate esters (mOPEs) and the oxidative stress marker 8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) in urine samples from 73 waste incinerator workers and 97 general residents from Shenzhen, China between September 2016 and June 2017. The overall detection rate of mOPEs was 82.2 %-100 %, and higher concentrations of di-p-cresyl phosphate and chlorinated mOPEs [bis(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (BCEP), bis(1-chloro-2propyl) phosphate (BCIPP), bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate) (BDCIPP)] were found among incinerator workers than among general residents. The incinerator workers also showed significantly higher levels of 8-OHdG than general residents, but the measured levels of most mOPEs were not significantly correlated with the level of 8-OHdG; this may be because co-exposure to multiple toxic compounds can lead to oxidative stress. Risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulations revealed that 95 % of the incinerator workers were free from non-carcinogenic effects due to OPEs exposure (hazard index = 0.27, 95 % CI: 0.09, 0.77). However, the carcinogenic risk of tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) for incinerator workers was between 10-6 and 10-4. These results indicate that incinerator workers are extensively exposed to OPEs, and better protective measures need to be implemented.

Health risk assessment of perchlorate and chlorate in red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) in China.

Perchlorate and chlorate are both strong oxidants and thyroid toxicants that are widely distributed in soil, water and human foods. The red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) is a common aquatic organism that is popular in Chinese culinary dishes. Dietary intake is the main route of human exposure to perchlorate and chlorate, though the health risks of crayfish consumption are unknown. Thus, this study investigated the quantities of perchlorate and chlorate in red swap crayfish from sampling sites in five provinces located near the Yangtze River in China, along with the associated health risks of consuming this species. Perchlorate was detected in 55.6-100 % of crayfish samples in each sampling location, and chlorate was found in 100 % of samples cross all sites. Concentrations of perchlorate in crayfish from upstream provinces (Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi) were higher than those from downstream provinces (Anhui and Jiangsu). Perchlorate and chlorate concentrations were positively correlated in crayfish, suggesting that chlorate may be a degradation byproduct of perchlorate. The quantities of both pollutants in hepatopancreas tissue were higher than in muscle tissues (p < 0.05), such that we do not recommend ingesting crayfish hepatopancreas. Hazard quotient (HQ) values for chlorate in crayfish were <1 across all provinces, suggesting no potential health risk of chlorate exposure through crayfish consumption. However, perchlorate concentrations in crayfish from the Jiangxi province had an associated HQ value >1, suggesting potential risks for human health. These results will be useful in informing mitigation measures aimed at reducing perchlorate exposure associated with crayfish consumption.

A Low-Cost SiO x /C@Graphite Composite Derived from Oat Husk as an Advanced Anode for High-Performance Lithium-Ion Batteries.

Silicon monoxide (SiO x ), as a promising anode for the next-generation high-power lithium-ion batteries, has some advantages such as higher lithium storage capacity (∼2400 mAh g-1), suitable working potential, and smaller volume variations during cycling compared with pure silicon. However, its disadvantages such as its inherent low conductivity and high cost impede its extensive applications. Herein, we have developed a low-cost and high-capacity SiO x /C@graphite (SCG) composite derived from oat husks by a simple argon/hydrogen reduction method. For further practical application, we also investigated the electrochemical performances of SiO x mixed with different ratios of graphite. As an advanced anode for lithium-ion batteries, the SCG-1 composite exhibits an excellent electrochemical performance in terms of lithium storage capacity (809.5 mAh g-1 at 0.5 A g-1 even after the 250th cycle) and high rate capability (479.7 mAh g-1 at 1 A g-1 after the 200th cycle). This work may pave the way for developing a low-cost silicon-based anode derived from biomass with a large reversible capacity and long cycle life in lithium-ion batteries.

A Low-Cost and High-Capacity SiO x /C@graphite Hybrid as an Advanced Anode for High-Power Lithium-Ion Batteries.

Silicon suboxide (SiO x ) is one of the most promising anodes for the next-generation high-power lithium-ion batteries because of its higher lithium storage capacity than current commercial graphite, relatively smaller volume variations than pure silicon, and appropriate working potential. However, the high cost, poor cycling stability, and rate capability hampered its industrial applications due to its complex production process, volume changes during Li+ insertion/extraction, and low conductivity. Herein, a low-cost and high-capacity SiO x /C@graphite (SCG) hybrid was designed and synthesized by a facile one-pot carbonization/hydrogen reduction process of the rice husk and graphite. As an advanced anode for lithium-ion batteries, the SiO x /C@graphite hybrid delivers a high reversible capacity with significantly enhanced cycling stability (842 mAh g-1 after 300 cycles at 0.5 A g-1) and rate capability (562 mAh g-1 after 300 cycles at 1 A g-1). The great improvement in performances could be attributed to the positive synergistic effect of SiO x nanoparticles as lithium storage active materials, the in situ-formed carbon matrix network derived from biomass functioning as an efficient three-dimensional conductive network and spacer to improve the rate capability and buffer the volume changes, and graphite as a conductor to further improve the rate capabilities and cycling stability by increasing the conductivity. The low-cost and high-capacity SCG derived from rice husk synthesized by a facile, scalable synthetic method turns out to be a promising anode for the next-generation high-power lithium-ion batteries.

Assessment of liver fibrosis: the relationship between point shear wave elastography and quantitative histological analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Traditional pathological scoring systems for liver fibrosis progression are predominantly based on the description of architectural changes with no consideration of the amount of collagen fiber deposition. Our purpose was to explore a true histological standard in accordance with the liver stiffness measured by point shear wave elastography (PSWE) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: A total of 78 patients with liver neoplasms underwent liver stiffness measurements with PSWE as well as biochemical investigations within 3 days before partial hepatectomy. One tissue section of the liver specimens was stained with HE trichrome and evaluated traditionally with the Scheuer scoring system. The other tissue section was stained with picroSirius red and was evaluated according to the semiquantitative Chevallier et al. scoring system. In addition, this second tissue section was evaluated for the collagen proportionate area (CPA) with computer-assisted digital image analysis. The reproducibility of PSWE technology was explored through the intra-class correlation coefficient of a reliability analysis. RESULTS: The PSWE technology revealed good reproducibility in liver stiffness measurements, and the PSWE values increased with the pathological severity of liver fibrosis on both the Scheuer scoring system and the semiquantitative Chevallier et al. scoring system. PSWE values exhibited more reasonable relationships with CPA (r = 0.628, P = 0.00 < 0.05) than with the Scheuer scoring system (r = 0.473, P = 0.00 < 0.05) or the Chevallier et al. semiquantitative scoring system (r = 0.487, P = 0.00 < 0.05). CONCLUSION: CPA is a better pathological parameter than traditional semiquantitative scoring systems in accordance with liver stiffness measured by PSWE technology.

Assessment of liver fibrosis with elastography point quantification technique in chronic hepatitis B virus patients: a comparison with liver pathological results.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Elastography point quantification (ElastPQ) was a newly non-invasive method for the assessment of liver fibrosis by measuring liver stiffness. We aimed at evaluating the reproducibility of ElastPQ technology in the determination of liver stiffness and to investigate the value of ElastPQ in liver fibrosis staging among chronic hepatitis B patients. METHODS: A total of 291 successive patients who underwent liver partial hepatectomy or biopsy were examined with the ElastPQ technology for the measurement of liver stiffness. Ten ElastPQ measurements were obtained in the right lobe of the liver through the seventh to the tenth intercostal space for every patient. The reproducibility of ElastPQ technology was analyzed with intraclass correlation (ICC) of reliability analysis. Comparing the median of 10 measurements of ElastPQ with liver fibrosis, necroinflammatory activity, and steatosis pathologically, as well as gender and age, potential factors affecting liver stiffness were explored by multiple linear regression analysis, and the performances of ElastPQ were evaluated with repeated measures anova and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The ICC of 10 measurements of liver stiffness with ElastPQ technique was 0.798, which indicated a good reproducibility. Liver fibrosis and necroinflammatory activity were positively correlated with ElastPQ (P = 0.00, 0.01 < 0.05) while other factors had no effect on ElastPQ. There was significant difference of ElastPQ between S1 (5.60 ± 2.55 kPa) and S2 (7.44 ± 3.43 kPa) (P = 0.01 < 0.05), and S3 (8.71 ± 3.14 kPa) and S4 (10.87 ± 5.25 kPa) (P = 0.01 < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve was 0.94 (6.99 kPa, the optimal cut-off value) for ElastPQ measured with ElastPQ between S0-1 and S2-3, 0.89 (9.00 kPa) for ElastPQ between S2-3 and S4. CONCLUSION: ElastPQ is a valid and reproducible non-invasive technology in liver stiffness measurement among chronic hepatitis B patients. The stage of liver fibrosis and the grade of necroinflammatory activity are associated with values of ElastPQ while liver fibrosis is the dominating factor affecting liver stiffness measured by ElastPQ.

[Real-time elastography for quantitative assessment of liver fibrosis in a rat model].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the feasibility of real-time elastography for quantitative evaluation of liver fibrosis in a rat model. METHODS: A total of 70 male Wistar rats were included in the group for dimethylnitrosamine (DMN)-induced liver injury, and 10 saline-injected rats were used as normal control. Hepatic injury was induced by a single intraperitoneal injection of DMN at a dose of 50 mg/kg of body weight. Nine or ten rats in the group with DNM injected and one or two rats in the normal control group were randomly selected and sacrificed at each of the following post-injection time: day 5, 7, 10, 14, 21, 24, and 28. And their livers were taken for pathology analysis. All the rats underwent real-time elastography before sacrificed in order to acquire area ratio of low-strain region (% AREA) and liver fibrosis index (LF index) which were compared with the stage of liver fibrosis and grade of necroinflammatory pathologically. By the different data, Spearman correlation analysis, rank-sum test or receiver operating characteristic curve was used. RESULTS: Among 58 successfully modeled rats, there were nine, 13, 14 and 12 rats of S1, S2, S3 and S4 liver fibrosis on pathology, respectively, which were with or without mild necroinflammatory. The other 10 rats were found to be S0 with severe necroinflammatory. Values of LF index and % AREA both increased with liver fibrosis stage (P less than 0.05). There was certain correlation between LF index and liver fibrosis stage (r=0.643, P=0.000), so was % AREA and liver fibrosis stage (r=0.662, P=0.000). As for LF index, Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Az) was 0.943, 0.890, 0.743 and 0.821 for the diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis S1 or higher, S2 or higher, S3 or higher and S4, respectively; as for % AREA, they were 0.948, 0.883, 0.772 and 0.842, respectively. However, we found a significant difference for LF index or % AREA between S0 with and without severe inflammatory activity rats (P=0.005 and P=0.017). CONCLUSION: Real-time elastography is available for quantitative assessment of liver fibrosis in rats induced by DMN, but severe inflammatory activity can affect its accuracy.